Rounding up Taiwan and the AIIB

Selfie sticks. The end is nigh.

China's proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) created quite a stir in the world news, with Washington totally losing its grip, and Taiwan... jumping on board? Shannon Tiezzi summarizes at The Diplomat:

Perhaps the most surprising late application to the AIIB is Taiwan. The Taiwanese government had previously expressed interest in joining, with Finance Minister Chang Sheng-ford telling legislators that Taiwan was willing to join “upon invitation.” Its official application wasn’t sent in until the evening of March 30, South China Morning Post reported. Presidential spokesman Charles Chen I-hsin said in a statement that joining AIIB would “increase the odds of the island taking part in international affairs and international economic and trade organizations.”

Despite Taiwan’s interest, it’s not clear if Beijing will welcome its inclusion in AIIB. When asked about Taiwan’s application for membership, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said, “Concerning Taiwan’s application, problems like ‘two Chinas’ or ‘one China, one Taiwan’ should be prevented from emerging.” Current requirements limit AIIB members to states, which would preclude Taiwan from joining under the “one China” policy. However, China could alter the requirement to define members as “economies,” using the same language that allows Taiwan to take part in APEC.

...

Taipei seems willing to apply to AIIB according to China’s “one China policy” restrictions. For example, Taiwan submitted its application via the mainland State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office rather than directly to the AIIB secretariat. As J. Michael Cole covered over on our Flashpoints blog, the Ma Ying-jeou administration’s decision to join AIIB under the “one China” framework has sparked protests on Taiwan, with detractors accusing the government of opaque decision-making on cross-strait affairs.

Cole's piece was good, don't miss it. The Ma government seems to have carefully staged this. Friends of mine who work in the Executive Yuan told me privately that while they had seen documents for the services pact for sometime beforehand, they saw nothing for the AIIB until the announcement this week, on the last day. By announcing the bid to join on the last day, the Ma Administration forestalled protests -- and any democratic review at this stage.

Earlier in March the government had stated that the whole proposal was vague and required review before Taiwan could join. Taiwan's former negotiator for trade agreements Francis Liang was in Washington earlier this week and two days before the Ma Administration's announcement he had said that it was premature to talk about such a thing -- then two days later the Ma Administration announced its bid to join. Ma convened an NSC meeting on monday night to discuss the issue, according to media reports.

Note that, as Liang noted in his comments, the structure of the organization does not even exist, it remains to be negotiated. This is merely a proposal. As a longtime Taiwan economist pointed out, China moved to develop the AIIB after the US rejected a proposal to give it greater input into the IMF. The IMF is widely reviled for its rapaciousness and brutality, and many countries would welcome an alternative. But, as the economist pointed out, an infrastructure bank is a challenge to the World Bank, not the IMF. Though I should point out that AIIB is only a name, there is nothing to stop the bank from assuming the IMF role, perhaps without the forced reductions in public welfare and services that have made the IMF so murderous and so despised. Or maybe even worse -- this is Beijing we're talking about, after all.

The Ma Administration immediately sold out. Premier Mao said in a Q+A session in the Legislature:

Taiwan would rather not take part in China’s proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) if it is not treated with dignity and equality, Premier Mao Chi-kuo (毛治國) said yesterday.

I laffed when I saw this, because I knew what happens when the Ma government talks this way -- sure enough, the Taipei Times reported today that the letters to China/AIIB lacked any formal titles or ROC signifiers. The government also filed the application not government to government, but through the PRC's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), which generated a few complaints as well. No doubt the KMT and CCP will negotiate some derogatory title that will permit Taiwan to join.

Ricky Yeh over at the Diplomat observes its many problems. Not only does joining the AIIB subordinate Taiwan to China as part of China, it also means that Taiwan money is strengthening China's diplomatic clout and ability to claim Taiwan.

Over at Ketagalan Media, Albert Tseng wrote on the pros and cons, asking the key point: does Taiwan need to join to reap the benefits? Probably not. This is likely to be a way for China to scoop money from rich countries to fund China's own infrastructure firms which everyone will soon sour on. I'm looking forward to the headlines from 2020: AIIB members complain projects go only to Chinese firms. UK and other EU nations mulling pulling out of AIIB as China steers bulk of contracts to China-connected firms. Leaked internal documents suggest China has China-first policy for AIIB. African leaders descry racism, lack of local purchasing in AIIB projects. Activists claim AIIB projects have poor quality, high failure rates, demand independent audit. 

That last points to the likely outcome. The World Bank and IMF have been colossal failures at creating growth and sustainable development in the developing world. It's hard to imagine that the AIIB is going to be any different, with the added joy of that Made in China quality and China's caring environmental stewardship.

Hopefully Taiwan will put only small sum of money in, to limit the damage it does and the damage done to it.

It's too soon to see what the domestic fallout will be, but its unlikely to help the KMT, especially if the AIIB starts becoming an issue during the fall presidential campaign, and the KMT candidate has to defend joining the AIIB under some rubric that makes Taiwan part of China. In a debate with former trade negotiator and China policy wonk Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP...

That should be fun.
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Zhang Visit Unravels

A monkey inspects a vehicle on the 23 near Donghe.

The visit of China's Taiwan Affairs Office head Zhangzhijun ended ignominously as he fled the island in the face of relentless public protests. WSJ scribes:

China's top cross-strait negotiator, in Taiwan on a landmark visit, canceled three public appearances at the last minute Saturday after protests against his bridge-building trip turned violent.

Zhang Zhijun, head of Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office, is the first ministerial-level Chinese official to set foot on Taiwanese soil after both sides split 65 years ago. Mr. Zhang's office said his four-day trip, which started on Wednesday, is to "listen to the voice of the Taiwanese people at the grass root level" as both sides strive for further reconciliation.

In a text message to reporters on Saturday morning, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Office, responsible for coordinating the trip with its Chinese counterpart, said the changes were made in response to a spate of "conflicts" in recent days.

On Friday evening, during his visit to the southern city of Kaohsiung, members of the pro-democracy Black Island Nation Youth Front threw white paint and bundles of paper ghost money at Mr. Zhang's vehicle as he was getting out of the car. Mr. Zhang wasn't hurt but several security agents were splashed with paint.

Earlier that morning, also in Kaohsiung, a young male protester sustained a laceration to his forehead during a violent quarrel with a group of China supporters in front of the hotel where Mr. Zhang was staying. The Chinese envoy was also almost hit by a water bottle thrown by a Taiwan independence activist as he arrived at the city's high speed railway station.

There were many other incidents, including protesters following Zhang everywhere he went holding signs saying there was one country on each side of the Strait. Kaoshiung Mayor Chen Chu mildly criticized the protesters, probably because Zhang had been slated to meet with her, an event that caused much speculation in the international media about China attempting to enhance relations with the DPP in case they win in 2016. The visit featured the usual ineptly staged official appearances, including a visit to Atayal country where the Atayal people were dressed up in quasi-Amis gear, and a visit to the Mazu temple in Lukang.

The Mazu temple visit is quite interesting. The goddess Mazu has become an important symbol of annexation over the last few years (see this and this in-depth piece). The Lukang temple is the rival Mazu temple to the big Mazu temple in Dajia. In the rear of the Lukang Mazu temple is a small portrait of Shih Lang, the general who invaded and annexed Taiwan to the Qing Empire in 1683. One wonders if they wanted to incorporate that into the visit. My friend Drew tells me that even as the big Mazu temple in Dajia acts as an important nexus of religious fervor, pro-annexation politics, and cross-strait organized crime, many less important Mazu temples around Taiwan are cutting their ties to their parent temples in China (Taipei Times story on the allegations of police and gangster use of violence against protesters)(the Foreigner has some tart comments).

Taiwan Explorer was among the many who just didn't get it:

Let's ask ourselves an honest question: Does violence really offer any viable solution here? As much as I admire the passion for democracy and independence by those young activists, throwing bottles and paint at a foreign government representative will not change things in your favor. And the excessive police force and disregard for accredited journalists casts another dark shadow on the current government, that barely anyone sees as capable to lead Taiwan. In light of these two factors, I'm rather pessimistic about what Taiwan really got out of this meeting, but one thing is sure - the discourse in Taiwan has not moved beyond the usual blue-green rhetoric. While protests were expected and necessary, the violence was counterproductive. You can't talk with someone who is shouting, or throwing things at you. If one day we have a green government, and a representative is sent to China for talks, how would Taiwanese feel, if Chinese protesters physically threatened that representative?

"Taiwan" wasn't supposed to get anything out of this meeting. It was political theatre staged for the audience at home in China -- Gary Rawnsley has great review of these aspects at CPI -- and to get the international media to gush Chinese propaganda about the "warming relations" and "China's softening point of view" and "first minister in 60 years!" and similar garbage. Taiwan Explorer is quite right: you can't talk to someone who is shouting at you or throwing things at you, but he misses a key point: you have to sincerely want to talk to them. And of course, Zhang did not want sincere talks. He was just there to create media spectacle (as Taiwan Explorer noted), which the international media breathlessly reported. Well, he got his spectacle...

The protests were never about talking to Zhang. They were there to subvert and destroy the media narrative that Zhang was trying to create. In that they were successful.

The visit did showcase an important aspect of Chinese soft power -- I didn't see any international media reporting the visit for the sham it was. To understand that, you had to read, well, people writing on social media, not the media. Indeed, AP's report was unmitigated shit from an alternate universe:

Dialogue between China and Taiwan opened in 2008 after Beijing set aside its military threat to sign economic agreements with Taipei and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou agreed to put off political issues to build trust and improve the island's economy.

...as if the DPP never negotiated with China and when did Beijing set aside its military threat!? Thanks, international media. As long as you guys write like that, we bloggers will always have readers.

Taiwan Explorer ends by asking how Taiwanese would feel if Chinese physically threatened a pro-Taiwan representative sent to China for talks. That's easy to answer. They wouldn't like it. We know that because pro-Taiwan types are rather regularly threatened when they advance pro-Taiwan views in overseas venues. We know that because, well, all of China policy toward Taiwan is essentially a violent threat to murder and maim Taiwanese in order to annex their island; that threat is indeed the only reason anyone bothered to pay attention to Zhang. Bottom line: if Zhang's nation didn't threaten to toss missiles at Taiwan, its representatives wouldn't be met with thrown bottles and paint.

UPDATE: Anon below observes...

"members of the pro-democracy Black Island Nation Youth Front threw white paint and bundles of paper ghost money at Mr. Zhang's vehicle as he was getting out of the car. Mr. Zhang wasn't hurt but several security agents were splashed with paint.

Earlier that morning, also in Kaohsiung, a young male protester sustained a laceration to his forehead during a violent quarrel with a group of China supporters in front of the hotel where Mr. Zhang was staying. The Chinese envoy was also almost hit by a water bottle thrown by a Taiwan independence activist as he arrived at the city's high speed railway station."

Did you notice how we hear clearly who threw things at the envoy, but the injuries to protesters are in passive voice? This comes up again and again in international media. Radicals and troublemakers on the pro-Taiwan and 'something happened' to protesters, no idea who did it.
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Daily Links:

• A preview of what's to come for Taiwan: Big Four Accounting firms warn Hong Kong over democracy drive
• Yay! Hualien to Taitung rail time slashed thanks to complete electrification
• JM Cole: Sunflower leaders denied entry into Hong Kong
• Taiwan Airpower: Targeting Takao
• The beautiful Tea Masters on how to make great iced tea.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!