UN Bid, Hsieh, in the spotlight

President Chen Shui-bian has officially delivered a letter to the UN secretary general asking that Taiwan enter the UN under the name "Taiwan." The Beeb reports:

The Chinese foreign ministry immediately dismissed the move, saying it was "doomed to failure".

Taiwan has long campaigned to join the UN but all such attempts have been blocked by China which regards the island as a breakaway province.

The government in Taipei held the UN seat for China until 1971 when it was replaced by Beijing.

This was the first time the country launched a bid for UN membership using its own name rather than the official title "Republic of China" used in earlier attempts.

"We resolutely oppose it and will keep a close eye on the development of the issue," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao was quoted as telling Xinhua news agency.

"The Taiwan authorities' attempt to split China will absolutely not succeed," he added.

China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since nationalist armies fled the mainland following defeat in a civil war in 1949.

The separatist plot is doomed to failure! said the Chinese authorities. Yes, that's absolutely correct. There's no hope of this succeeding. In the meantime we get the UN bid to help bring out the base, and sympathy overseas when the bombast from Beijing floods western newspapers, giving Taiwan plenty of free publicity too. And it will have zero tangible consequences, though that will not stop the spate of commentary from the US from Really Weighty Commentators chiding Taiwan for wanting to have a democracy and thus, "provoking" Beijing.

Meanwhile DPP Presidential candidate Frank Hsieh is off on a ten-day visit to the US. The presentation is, well, comical:

Tai-shuenn Yang of Taipei's Chinese Culture University said American officials were anxious to hear if Hsieh was really more moderate than Chen on cross-strait relations.

"In the past few years, President Chen has taken some unpredictable steps, and the U.S. is concerned whether the new DPP leader will continue in (his path)," he said. "The U.S. wants to know enough to be able to make objective assessment about the 2008 elections."

In February 2006 Chen scrapped a government body responsible for eventual unification with the mainland, infuriating Beijing, and causing great concern in Washington, which fears being drawn into a conflict in the western Pacific.

His determination to move ahead with the U.N referendum is causing similar concern, because it appears to signal a desire to dispense with Taiwan's official title of "The Republic of China," and carve out a long-term identity separate from the mainland.

As Hsieh's campaign begins to gather momentum, he may be torn between the demands of hardcore DPP supporters to identify with the pro-independence line, and the preference of centrist voters to continue the island's politically ambivalent status quo.

Is Hsieh "more moderate" than Chen? In 2000, when Chen came to power, PBS had a show on Mad Chen, the Crazed Pro-Independence Radical and Hardliner, who does completely insane and unpredictable things like scrap symbolic bodies with annual budgets of thirty bucks. What did the PBS commentators say about Chen? Here's David Brown, former AIT head, who recently dissed and dismissed Chen in the Japan Times:

DAVID BROWN: Well, what I think he's doing, of course, is as a person who wanted to be elected in Taiwan, he's appealing to the broad middle ground of people on Taiwan who want to preserve peace, don't want to provoke the PRC and want essentially to try and live with harmony across the Taiwan straits. I think that his long-term game plan is to speak sweet words to the Mainland, and to be reasonable and to work on developing a more cooperative relationship across the straits, without in any way compromising Taiwan's de facto independence.

Winston Lord, a name some of you will recognize, added:

WINSTON LORD, Former U.S. Ambassador to China: Well, I agree with the others that this was a masterful speech. It blended conciliation and pride in Taiwan's democracy, which of course makes the clear contrast with the repressive political system on the mainland. But he talked about shared history with China; he talked about possible discussions on the future of one China. It was as far as he could go; it was very conciliatory. He followed it up with a trip to the off shore islands where he talked about the three links economically and also underlined national security. So not only did he exhibit conciliation, I think in contrast to Beijing's past rhetoric, but I think he elicited a relatively moderate response from Beijing. They didn't attack him personally, they distinguished him in a follow-up commentary today from other people in his party, they agreed about the possibility of direct economic links; they talked about going back to a formula where the two sides talked in 1992. And in a backgrounder today, a senior official said that they understood he was in a delicate position, they've got to give him some time. And so this, by Beijing's standards, is fairly moderate rhetoric. One other point I'd make, and Merle, referred to that, I think the people of China have been very impressed with what has happened on Taiwan, its democratic election, this transfer of power from one party to another, in great contrast to their own system.

In other words, seven years ago, Chen was a moderate. Looking at Chen, it is very easy to see that a few years from now, the papers are going to be filled with nonsensical commentaries expressing disappointment at how unmoderate Hsieh has turned out to be in office.

The IHT article above complains about Chen's scrapping of the NUC last year. Can anyone name even a single tangible consequence of that act? Nope. Meanwhile China keeps adding more missiles, expanding its military, claiming parts of other nations, and suppressing Taiwan's international space. I guess it is a good thing the leadership in Beijing isn't hardline like Chen Shui-bian, eh?

The last paragraph of the IHT article still makes an old and long-since proved bankrupt distinction between "centrist" and "hardcore" voters. Actually, independence is now the centrist position on the island. There is almost no support for annexing the island to China, or for "independence now." But the centrist voter here is by and large a voter who envisions an independent state for the island. That is one reason that Hsieh is going to win, and the reason he can win without engaging in "hardline" rhetoric.

As for the UN referendum, Hsieh indicated last month that he supports it. I guess he is not a moderate....

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