Ma Ying-jeou, Man in Motion

You all did see that on the Lupercal
I thrice presented him a kingly crown,
Which he did thrice refuse: was this ambition?

The announcement on the recall motion should come out today....

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is looking more determined to force President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) off stage, as it plans to announce a recall motion in today's Central Standing Committee meeting amid plans for a signature drive and a rally to demand Chen's resignation.

KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) declined to say yesterday whether the party preferred a recall motion against Chen or a move to dismiss the Cabinet. But he said he thought it likely that the first couple were directly involved in the recent scandals.

"The first lady's relationship with Chen You-hao (陳由豪) and President Chen's involvement in the TDC scandal show that they may be directly involved in the cases," Ma said after presiding over a municipal meeting at the Taipei City Hall.

But Ma has been playing coy, appearing to reluctantly support the motion, angering many members of the PFP and the KMT. There may be some trepidation here: what will things be like when he's the President and the legislature is pro-Green? But there are some other issues, outlined in a Taipei Times editorial:

While the People First Party (PFP) is planning to unseat Chen, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is taking aim at the Cabinet. Since recalling the president requires the approval of two-thirds of legislators, the KMT thinks it doesn't have the numbers. However, the pan-blues do possess enough legislative seats to force the resignation of the Cabinet. If Chen decided to dissolve the legislature in response, this would force an election, which under the Constitution, would be under the new "single-district, two-vote" system. That means half the legislators would be out of a job. While neither KMT nor PFP legislators desire this, the result would be worse for the PFP, which would likely dissolve completely, allowing the KMT to dislodge both of its political rivals in one go. But, unable to put its ideal plan into action, the KMT has settled on launching a petition to recall the president, so that it does not lose support to the PFP.

If Chen dissolves the legislature in response and elections are held -- none of us will be able to take a nap during day, due to the unending cascade of sound trucks playing the same song over and over, each time for a different candidate. But more importantly, the future will suddenly become murky. Very murky. Some points to ponder:

1. The new legislature, if the KMT dominates it, will probably be run by Ma's people.

2. Ma's political rival, Wang Jin-pyng, currently the KMT legislative speaker, might not have a seat. He is one of the at-large appointed KMT legislators. Under the local system, a party gets to appoint a certain number of legislators, the exact proportion representing the extent of their victory in the legislative election -- the more seats they hold, the more at-large people they get to appoint. Recently the rules on determining who will be the KMT's at-large legislators were revised to make the voting for them open to party members, not just party elites. Wang is a party insider who belongs to the faction that is against Ma. He's not likely to win an at-large position in a "democratic" poll of party members backed by Ma --unless Ma wants him to. Which leads to....

......the interesting question is -- if you're Ma, where do you want Wang? In the legislature where he can be encysted with your people? Or a free agent, with no formal title, able to do and say what he wants?

3. The KMT might not do as well as many think. The DPP has been showing a clear rising trend at the local level for the past three elections, and that through all the disgust with Chen. There are risks here for a recall vote, uncertainties, real possibility of loss. I'm curious to see how well the DPP fares in the upcoming local elections this month.

4. As the Taipei Times pointed out, the real loser would be the PFP, the pro-Blue ally of the KMT, on the wane for the last several years. One of Ma's long-term goals has been to bring all the PFP people back into the KMT. Will Ma use the recall motion to risk a dissolution of the legislature in order to destroy the PFP and force the wayward Blues to return to the Church of the Mainlander Identity?

Life sure will be fun if Chen dissolves the legislature.

[Taiwan] [Chen Shui-bian] [Democracy] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou] [KMT] [Taiwan Legislature]