Friday, August 14, 2015

LOLs and Polls

Pigeon coop in Miaoli

Solidarity on Twitter:
ジェームス ‏@jmstwn: Hung's pro-unification views a problem for central and southern legislators, while her support of 4th nuke plant a headache for northerners
A few polls out this week. First, the Taiwan Competitiveness Forum, which is a laughably pro-KMT organization, commissioned a poll showing what everyone knows, that Soong's presence in the race hurts the KMT (FocusTaiwan). The poll had Tsai over Hung 36 to 26 to Soong's 15. Note that it is an outlier, most polls are finding Soong ahead of Hung, as the Taipei Times observed. The poll head observed:
When asked about Soong's impact on the race, 73.1 percent of respondents said Hung's support base will be eroded while 8.5 percent said he will draw votes away from Tsai's support base.


An overwhelming majority of respondents (96.6 percent) said Soong's participation would make a Tsai victory more likely, compared with only 1.9 percent who felt his entry into the race made it more likely that Hung will win.

TVBS polls were in the news this week. @FormosaNation sent the above images around Twitter. The upper image shows Tsai ahead of Soong and Hung 38-20-17 (compare to the TCF poll above), but more importantly, Tsai is ahead in all important geographic areas of Taiwan. The poll also had Hung's support falling in crucial over-40 age brackets. It's becoming a two-way race between Tsai and Soong at the moment, with Hung threatening not merely to lose, but to become irrelevant. But it's early, and Soong still needs the support of the local factions if he is going to mount a serious campaign. Otherwise both Soong and Hung could fade into irrelevance.

Another flap this week was the nuclear flap, in which KMT Chairman Eric Chu said that the goal is a nuke free nation, while KMT Candidate Hung calls for nuclear power plants (Taipei Times). Not surprisingly, Chu is mayor of new Taipei city, where three of the nation's four nuclear generating stations are located.

Hickey Flap
Dennis Hickey, the longtime pro-KMT commentator, contributed some dreck to The Diplomat on how the students protesting the curriculum were a Middle Eastern rent-a-mob (several people attempted to reach out to Hickey about this) and quoting the KMT's international spokesman as if he were asserting facts. The KMT then attempted to use the article to show that the US government didn't like DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (DPP response)(J Michael Cole at Thinking Taiwan) in the best "foreigners validate" style. It seems obvious that the KMT fed Hickey that information and then used it against Tsai, a tight little loop of faux validation. Not the first time...

Tainan and Prosecutor Transfers
Three prosecutors on the bribery case against Speaker Lee of the Tainan City council have been promoted. Some pan-Greens contended it was the usual transfer of people who find against the KMT, but the Taiwan Law Blog observed that evidence for that is  not strong. Yet, Tim maddog reminded me that such transfers/promotions occurred when judges found against the KMT in the Ma and Chen cases...

J Michael Cole wrote on the Control Yuan's impeachment of William Lai, the popular mayor of Tainan. Lai appears to have set himself up thanks to his stubbornness, but he does have a strong point. Note that Speaker Lee, who allegedly committed bribery to win the speaker's seat, was arrested while attempting to flee to China -- yet makes bail even though he is an obvious flight risk, a common pattern among alleged KMT lawbreakers. Speaker seats are much sought after since they determine the agenda, which is going to include lots of public construction contracts that are perfect for cronies. Because of the way Taiwan institutions are set up, where people on committees defer to the wishes of committee heads as if they were dictators, the speaker probably has even more power than it appears on paper. Frozen Garlic ripped the Control Yuan on this a couple of weeks ago.

Candidate Tsai Ing-wen announced that the popular mayor of Kaohsiung, Chen Chu, would be her campaign manager. Chen Chu is widely said to be a candidate for the Veep slot, or more likely, for the Premiership once Tsai is elected. The reason I haven't been blogging much on the DPP is that party strategy for the moment is to let Hung Hsiu-chu talk herself into irrelevance.

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Anonymous said...

I think that's a pigeon coop.

Michael Turton said...

haha lol

an angry taiwanese said...

Tainan and Prosecutor Transfers

This should serve a fore warning for Tsai in 2016. President Ma still own a number of prosecutors and judges in his pocket. He might use them to create a judicial coup. Between the presidential election in January and Tsai's inauguration in May, his law dogs can prosecute and lock Tsai up using any ridiculous charge.

If that doesn't work, the questionable validity of Justices of Constitutional Court can be made to create the invalidity of Tsai's inauguration. (see Judge 洪英花's letter to Liberty Times,

Ma will not let his ship sing without dragging whole Taiwan down with it. It will be too hard for any addict of totalitarian power.

Linden said...

Excerpt from the press briefing by the U.S. State Department regarding Dennis Hickey's article about Tsai Ing-wen and the Taiwan Relations Act, basically showing complete commitment to defending Taiwan and its democracy by emphatically answering NO with regards to reviewing policy.

QUESTION: Okay, let me put my question this way. A recent article published in The Diplomat – let me quote – indicate that the United States – it’s regarding the presidential election in Taiwan. The article quotes, “U.S. defense planners cannot help but wonder if the DPP” – which is a opposition party in Taiwan – “will seek to entrap the United States in a cross-strait crisis in an effort to achieve its dreams of independence from China.” And, “Tsai Ing-wen,” who is a “DPP presidential candidate, has done little to assuage such fears.” Do you share such observation? And the article also point out it’s time for the United States to review the policy toward Taiwan. Is there any discussion within this building to review the policy toward Taiwan?


QUESTION: What is the status of U.S. security commitment toward Taiwan?

MR KIRBY: I mean, we remain committed to fulfilling our responsibilities under the Taiwan Relations Act. Key priorities with Taiwan include ensuring it has the ability to defend itself, and remain free from coercion or intimidation. When free from coercion, Taiwan has increasingly engaged China with confidence. That’s our position on it.

Anonymous said...

If the candidate is empty [in substance], it would not change a thing, no matter who has been chosen as the campaign manager

Hung the nit-wit....she doesn't even realize she is defining herself with her own comments. Drink some vinegar KMT and douche yourself from this idiot.

Michael Turton said...

thanks for the press conference stuff... will use it!

Michael Turton said...

thanks for the press conference stuff... will use it!

L. Paul Voss said...

Regarding the "Taiwan independence stickers for your passport." The Match Cafe (默契咖啡) which sells the stickers, is one place I never fail to stop by when I go through Taichung. I have seen it change a lot since 2008 when I first set foot in the place, but has always been great.