Thursday, December 05, 2013

Ma Gov't and ADIZ

Lovely day on Dongchi Road on the way to Dongshih.

FocusTaiwan has some good news on the Ma Government's reaction to the new Chinese ADIZ:
Taiwan has told Beijing that its declaration of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over an area of the East China Sea that covers the disputed Diaoyutai Islands is unacceptable, Taiwan's intelligence chief said Wednesday.

Tsai De-sheng, director-general of the National Security Bureau (NSB) said Taiwan is also communicating with China through an encrypted dialogue channel over Beijing's plan to demarcate another ADIZ over the South China Sea.
If it's true that Taiwan has said this, it is very good news. As the editorials FocusTaiwan collects below the opening paragraphs make clear, Beijing's signal that it might announce an ADIZ over the South China Sea has everyone in a tither in Taipei. The ROC lays claim to islands there, and to the entire South China Sea, and has forces physically present on Pratas Island and Taiping Island. An ADIZ could massively complicate things for the Taiwan air force, especially the belligerent kind of ADIZ that China uses.

This ADIZ was really quite cleverly done. Not only does it force the US and Japan to react, so that Beijing could whine about how victimized it is -- the number of my lefty acquaintances who buy Beijing's bullshit is mind-blowing -- but the order that aircraft flying in the ADIZ report to Beijing, which is against common practice, forces Japan to ignore it. Otherwise, Tokyo, by having its aircraft report, Tokyo would effectively concede that the ADIZ is legal. Because China does not own the Senkakus, the ADIZ is illegal. Again Japan is forced to look like it is being unreasonable, and with so many willing to carry Beijing's water for it.... really a clever move from the propaganda standpoint, in some ways.

In Foreign Affairs Michael J Green on the Chinese ADIZ.
The Obama administration needs to stick to a disciplined message of resolve and reassurance. And that would mean accurately assessing Beijing’s strategic intent. Confrontation with China is far from inevitable, and the potential areas for productive U.S.-Chinese cooperation remain vast. Vice President Joe Biden will no doubt emphasize the positive in U.S.-Chinese relations when he travels to Beijing this week. And that makes sense. But he should also leave no doubt that the United States is prepared to work with regional allies and partners to ensure Beijing understands that its attempts at coercion will not work. Then, when he is in Tokyo and Seoul, he should take time to listen carefully to what those allies think is at stake in the troubled East and South China Seas. Their problem is our problem, not just because we are allies but also because this moment could determine how China uses its growing power.
Unfortunately Green has misjudged Beijing's strategic intent: Beijing is careering towards war. Perhaps Japan and the US can display enough intent convince China to have the war elsewhere, just as Nomonhan in 1939 convinced the Japanese that they should focus their attentions southward instead of against the tough and skillful Russians. The Indians are aware they are also a target -- China Reform Monitor reports:
The military build up along the China-India border continues despite last month’s border agreement. “Against the backdrop of the major military infrastructure modernization on the Chinese side,” the Indian army is raising an additional 50,000 troops to be based in Panagarh, West Bengal with responsibility for the China-India border, Rediff reports. The Indian Air Force will also station six mid air refueling tankers and six C-130J Super Hercules special operations aircraft in Panagarh. An unknown number of armored and artillery divisions will also be deployed in Bihar and Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and other parts of India’s northeast. As part of the plan, ultra-light howitzers, light tanks, and helicopters will strengthen Indian positions along the LAC. Helipads and airfields are being overhauled to allow Indian forces greater access to the rugged region and in time the military plans to position ballistic and cruise missile units there as well.
All across the Chinese frontier, Beijing has mobilized its enemies. More and more it looks like Japan in the 1930s, threatened by no one and able to gain all the resources it needs by peaceful trade, but bent on re-arranging the map in any case.
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Anonymous said...

Why is it mind boggling that American Liberals see Taiwan as a province of China in the general scheme of things? This is the orthodox view of Liberals in academia, believe me I have come across many in academia who hold this view. As a result of years of sympathizing with communist China, this type of thinking is not unexpected. What is sad is that I see a lot of students who study Chinese, especially those on university campuses, who are buying into this line of thinking.


yankdownunder said...

the number of my lefty acquaintances who buy Beijing's bullshit is mind-blowing

I'm remaining optimistic that the Left will come around on China..

Are you still optimistic?

"More and more it looks like Japan in the 1930s, threatened by no one and able to gain all the resources it needs by peaceful trade, "

Terrible and wrong comparison.
European/American threats were real
and many colonies to prove it.
Japan thanks to USA(FDR) was denied all the resources it needed.
Also at that time it was common for Europe/US to gain the resources it needed by non peaceful means.(starting with Perry's demand of give us a harbor or we will destroy you).

yankdownunder said...

by having its aircraft report, Tokyo would effectively concede that the ADIZ is legal. Because China does not own the Senkakus, the ADIZ is illegal.

Exactly. Sadly US has done the opposite by having its aircraft report. China news is reporting this as a win/support for/of its ADIZ.

Few news reports mention that the ADIZ is over Japanese territory. They focus on it being large or unannounced which makes it look like China is being picked on.

Michael Turton said...

I'm trying to stay optimistic, Yank. The Europeans especially try my patience.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday South Korea just expanded her ADIZ. South Korea and Japan never acknowledged ADIZ of PROC in the 1st place, only Taiwan kowtowed immediately. Is PROC really ready for war? What is the standing of Uncle Sam on this?

Anonymous said...

Just WHAT past as Left and Right in USA? Just because they like China so they are considered Left?
And really? Taiwan is just a small part of PROC and should be put under the control of PROC? What kind of diplomatic PR campaign the KMT have been doing in USA and Europe all these years?

yankdownunder said...

" over a group of islands long administered by Japan. "

Yes. They didn't say " islands long disputed by China/Japan" like every other report does.

The fact is the islands have been Japanese for a very long time and that's all that need be said.
The reports should not even mention
the Chinese name.

Also there is a Taiwan link

"Zhang came to the attention of U.S. authorities through an investigation into two buyers from Taiwan working on his behalf who sought to locate large quantities of aerospace-grade carbon fiber through the Internet ..."