Monday, December 07, 2009

Some Numbers on 2009 Local Elections


Ok, just for what little they are worth, a comparison. The first column lists the location, the second gives Frank Hsieh's percentage in the 2008 election. The third column gives the DPP percentage in the county or in the city mayoral election. The fourth column gives the difference in percent between 2009 and 2008, rounded down because I was too lazy to get out the calculator.

Matsu, Kinmen, and Hualien had no DPP candidate, so no comparison is possible. Speculate to your heart's content, but note that the DPP is up in almost every case. Could be general dissatisfaction for reasons noted in the post below, could be because KMTers felt less inclined to come out, while DPPers were more fired up about the election. Note that Hsinchu had a third credible candidate, hence the KMT got 38%, the DPP ~30% and the third guy, also ~30%. The different structure of this election, without the major urban areas, made it difficult to compare with previous local elections.

Looking forward to those municipal elections next year!

UPDATE: Corrected some math errors. Should have gotten out the calculator....

UPDATE II: This graph in the Taipei Times has the local election data laid out.
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6 comments:

Yuande said...

Very interesting, thank you.

Michael Turton said...

My pleasure! I think I'll whip one up showing all the major elections for the last four or five years today.

Anonymous said...

You can use these charts:
http://iservice.libertytimes.com.tw/2009/specials/election/statistics.php?p=13

http://iservice.libertytimes.com.tw/2009/specials/election/statistics.php?p=20

DPP has retained its core supporters, and KMT has an adavantage in being the incumbent for most of the counties. But it's still a small increase for DPP. Don't know why DPP didn't pay attention to Penghu and Chiayi City, since seems to me traditionally they have almost 50% of support there.

Well, in politics it's more important to frame the narrative such that it's favorable to your own party. Calling this a DPP victory is a bit of a stretch, but it's good as long as it boosts morale and galvanizes people.

fvarga said...

Very good job!
Just one question: I am wondering if we could really compare presidential and local elections. Not sure...
Anyway, your table provides a clear description.

Michael Turton said...


Well, in politics it's more important to frame the narrative such that it's favorable to your own party. Calling this a DPP victory is a bit of a stretch, but it's good as long as it boosts morale and galvanizes people.


That's pretty much how I see it.

BIT said...

I was a little disappointed that DPP did not win more. After all the Taiwanese people should have seen the incompetence the Ma administration has demonstrated. An incapable government can be improved in a democratic country through elections and does not concern me as much as the looming loss of sovereignty of the country. I feel that the democracy in Taiwan is in jeopary and the people should have gotten their wakeup calls. The bright side, however, is that the overall support rate is 45 - 46% which is so close to that of KMT. I hope this translates to a real victory in 2012.