The View from Taiwan

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Sec Rice's Comments

Jerome Keating reminds that Sec Rice's comments that the referendum is a "provocation" may be responded to at the following email addresses:

http://contact-us.state.gov/cgi-bin/state.cfg/php/enduser/ask.php?

comments@whitehouse.gov

Be nice when you talk to the Administration, I'm sure it will be a new experience for them..... Alton Thompson over at Conductor's Notebook has a good response:

Dear Secretary Rice:

Like many Americans living in Taiwan I think your recent statement is a provocative action. It unnecessarily raises tensions between the democratic ideals Americans cherish and the policies of your administration. The statement promises no real benefits on the international stage for the people of either America or Taiwan. Or even China.

The moment was not worthy of you, Ms Rice. History has recorded your name already as a crucial player in the advancement of democracy. You were your country's Russia expert during the fall of the Soviet empire. The people of central and eastern Europe did not achieve peaceful liberation from their nightmare because you or your boss sent mixed messages from your side. The motto then was peace through strength, not status quo.

I think the US has reached the point of self-defeating overkill -- which may in fact be the goal. This bombast-by-proxy policy may be intended to have the opposite effect than it conveys on the surface. Perhaps they are just subtle...

...but I sorta doubt it. It should also be noted that the Chinese wanted Bush himself to make a statement, and instead they got Rice. Since westerners often get rice when they want something else in Chinese settings, it's only natural that we return the favor. (badda bing!). Sec. Rice's comments were certainly uncalled for, but it could have been worse....

I wish Chen would stop misrepresenting the referendum:

Responding to Rice, Chen said the referendum was an engagement the government had made in response to the request of the people.
"The referendum comes from the bottom up, from the 23 million people of Taiwan. The people took the initiative to make the proposal and enthusiastically put their signatures on the petition to sustain the referendum," Chen said.

The referendum was initiated by the DPP and approved by the people. It was not initiated by "the people." This is a game that is beneath our dignity. It might also be wonderful if Chen would shut up until the election and step down as Chairman of the DPP, but I haven't seen any pigs flying outside my window lately.... one thing everyone is saying is that they are tired of Chen, who says things that everyone is thinking, but probably should not be said by any major politician ('there's no cap on the Pacific ocean'). Is the DPP's strategy to make everyone sick of Chen, then trundle out Hsieh to hit the big time for the last six weeks of the campaign?

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [Chen Shui-bian]

Adventures in the Borderlands

A new eye on the things around our house....

My friend Drew took me around a vast swing through northern Taichung and up to Fengyuan, and then around to Shihgang today for a look at some of the relics of bygone eras that lie around our area, largely unknown to foreigners.

Daily Links, Dec 22, 2007

I enlarged it a little, but here is a wonderful bit of progress on The Beautiful Isle: installed wind capacity on the rise (from the latest issue of the Taiwan Journal).

JOB SEARCH: A bit of personal news: given the recent events at our university, I have decided to look into warmer pastures down south. If anyone in Kaohsiung knows of a full-time university position in an AFL department for a Chinese-speaking foreigner, I'm interested in it.

What's out there on the blogs this week?

ROC the Boat points to a fine article on China's military build-up and also has a great report on the Heritage meeting on the UN referendum.

A-gu has another good post on the two-step referendum ballot. A-gu also rubbishes Ma Ying-jeou's hilarious and insulting claim to have been on the KMT blacklist and shows that Ma really does plan to sell out the island.

Formosa Neijia on the mafia presence in local martial arts and its sad results.

Johnny Z on the Hai An Road Temple celebrations. With pics. Fili on the same.

Scott discusses the survey on salaries for university students.

Taiwan Matters on the former government official who threatened Chen Shui-bian being released on bail.

Talking Taiwanese on bilingualism and diglossia in Taiwan.

The lovely Adelita reviews a veg restaurant in Taipei with some nice pics.

The Foreigner puts Taiwan's corruption in perspective.

Save the humpback dolphin blogs on the world's dirtiest power plant at WuChi in Taichung. I must have moved here for the reassuring familiarity: I used to live in Indiana, Pa, near two of the largest and most polluting power plants in the US, one built right atop a coal mine.

MEDIA: The CFR has a roundtable on the falling dollar. Nobel Laureate Lee laments Taiwan's lack of a sci-tech ministry. Despite KMT fables that our economy is failing, exports shot up 17% last month. Our industrial output is also up 11% on the year. Even as Condoleeza Rice was crapping on Taiwan's head, Sec of Defense Robert Gates was criticizing China's explanation for the Kitty Hawk affair as "specious" -- and that as our policy of engagement with China scored another success as China inked a major energy pact with Iran, totally undercutting Bush Administration policy there. I'm looking forward to the sequel to Memento, which I understand will be about US China policy.....

[Taiwan]

Stray Media on Taiwan's Int'l Relations

The always insightful Ting-i Tsai has a commentary in the Asia Times on the recent decision by the US to take a step back on the referendum. He argues that the US has reluctantly decided to live with it:

Burghardt's approach, which deviated from that of other US officials in recent months, may have signaled that Washington has reluctantly decided to change course after concluding that its efforts to compel Taiwan's ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to drop the referendum were futile.

Washington now appears willing to "tolerate" the referendum but is hoping to encourage its failure so that it will not be over-interpreted with expansive and elaborate statements on what the referendum means.

Some US-based analysts believe that Burghardt's comments reflected a shift in attitude, prompted by Washington's realization that it could not have high expectations that Chen would drop the referendum.

Bonnie Glaser, senior associate at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said she sensed that Washington had shifted to acceptance of the referendum after a meeting with a senior US official a few weeks ago.

The view is echoed by Richard Bush, former chairman of the AIT and director of the Washington-based Brookings Institution's Center for Northeast Asian Policy Study. "The attitude [of Washington] has been shifting for some time," Bush said, as the US government has known for a while that the chances were pretty low that the DPP would abandon the referendum.

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The train of US officials speaking out against the referendum reached another high with Sec. Rice herself labeling it "provocative" in remarks yesterday, the day after she received a letter from two Congressmen asking the Administration to stop this unseemingly behavior. The BBC reports:

At an end-of-year news conference at the state department, Ms Rice said: "We think that Taiwan's referendum to apply to the United Nations under the name 'Taiwan' is a provocative policy.

"It unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage."

Beijing has attacked the referendum, calling it a precursor to attempts to declare independence.

It has consistently threatened to use force if that happens.

Driving this wave of Bush Administration self-expression, I suspect, is the belief that Taiwan's voters actually correctly receive, interpret, and act on, warnings from the US. Tom Christensen, who has been particularly active in elaborating this policy of attacking the referendum on China's behalf, seems to hold this belief. Do people really care what the US says? How can they see what it is saying when everything that is reported here goes through the pro-Blue media's distortion machine?

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Max Hirsch of Kyodo News, consistently one of the best reporters on the island's affairs, has another insightful piece on the emerging importance of Japan in the domestic political battle here. I've been observing over the last couple of years how Japan's Taiwan policy has undergone a shift in response to China's challenge to Japan, a very favorable shift for Taiwan. Hirsch's piece elaborates on how this has affected Taiwan's internal struggles. Interesting bits highlighted (now in the Japan Times):

Such is the significance of Japan to Taiwan's Mar. 22 presidential election, in which tacit support from the vital trading and strategic partner could make or break the diplomacy platforms of Ma and Hsieh. Hence, Japan has emerged as a key battleground in the political fight for Taiwan's top job, as both frontrunners scramble to curry favor with Tokyo.

''Obviously...both candidates put Taiwan-Japan relations front and center in this race,'' says Andrew Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a Taipei-based think tank.

Concern in Tokyo over whether Taiwan's next president will ''exercise an independent voice'' for the island ''while avoiding miscalculations with Beijing'' is behind Tokyo's keen interest in the race, Yang says.

Taiwan's growing interest in Japan, meanwhile, is obvious.

Amid booming trade and tourism links, Japan's importance to Taiwan on security hit a zenith in 2005, when Tokyo joined Washington in referring to Taiwan as a ''common strategic objective'' -- a veiled reference to likely intervention by the United States and Japan in a Taiwan Strait conflict.

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Beijing's threats to attack the island have spurred Hsieh to capitalize on Japan's 2005 statement -- issued by then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi -- by seeking U.S.-style security guarantees from Tokyo during his trip.

However, fears abound in Taipei that the current prime minister, Yasuo Fukuda -- known for his ''China-friendly'' stance -- will back off of commitments to the island to soothe Beijing.

''We have a poster of Junichiro Koizumi tacked up in our office, but not of Prime Minister Fukuda,'' says DPP Legislator Hsiao Bi-khim, who serves in Hsieh's campaign and runs foreign affairs for the DPP.

''It's not that we don't like [Fukuda]; it's just that we connect more with leaders like...Koizumi,'' she adds.

All the more reason, then, for Ma and Hsieh to court Fukuda's administration. Bullish economic ties further explain why wooing Japan is more important in this race than in past races.

Taiwan's trade with Japan, for example, totaled nearly US$63 billion last year, a record high allowing Japan to overtake the United States as Taiwan's second largest trading partner, after China. Taiwan for its part ranks fourth among Japan’s trading partners, while the two exchanged some 2.3 million tourists last year -- another record high.

That both frontrunners sent their running-mates to the United States on goodwill visits before visiting Japan themselves, undermines another piece of conventional wisdom -- that Washington mainly arbitrates the island's geopolitical fate.

Ma's trip to Japan was apparently very successful. The DPP places such importance on its relationship with Japan that its website is available in both Anglais and Japanese....

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Finally, from a blogger where the south polar star is found comes this tale of growing Chinese influence in the Cook Islands....

Given the paucity of news in New Zealand media about events in our South Pacific neighbours, unless it is about coups, riots or cyclones, I’m not surprised there has been virtually no news here about the wonderful benevolence of China in the Cook Islands. But I am surprised there has been no coverage whatsoever here of the farewell speech given in Rarotonga a few days ago by the departing New Zealand high commissioner John Bryan, which received considerable publicity in the Cooks because of his candid thoughts on the China connection. It’s not as if our media did not know he was leaving – they have been speculating he will be replaced by NZ First MP Brian Donnelly.

As the daily newspaper, the Cook Islands News, put it, career diplomats seldom express their views on important issues in public, so Bryan’s comments were all the more remarkable and worthy of reporting by the New Zealand media.

“People are saying there is no such thing as a free lunch so what do the Chinese want in return for the assistance they are providing?” Bryan said. “There are lots of ideas floating around, including them wanting access to Cook Islands fishing grounds, the establishment of a fishing fleet in the northern group and the facilitation of migrants. May be there is an ounce of truth in that.”

But what John Bryan believes to be China’s main interest is the Taiwan issue. There is great rivalry between China and Taiwan, the province that broke away after Mao’s communists took over the mainland in 1949 and which was recognised by most Western countries as the “official” China until the early 1970s. Some countries still recognise Taiwan rather than China, including Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu and the Solomon Islands in the Pacific. Almost unnoticed by the New Zealand media, China and Taiwan have been quietly competing for influence in the region, in much the same way, though not as nakedly, as Japan has been trying to buy the votes of Pacific nations at the International Whaling Commission. This makes it all the more disappointing that the New Zealand media missed John Bryan’s speech.

Let me report what he said: “I think it comes down to the bitter rivalry that exists between China and Taiwan in securing diplomatic recognition across the Pacific. China advocates, and most members of the United Nations agree, that Taiwan is still a legitimate province of the mainland. Taiwan likes to think they are ‘autonomous’ and can operate accordingly. Several Pacific nations agree with them and they all have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. China would, of course, prefer these countries to respect the one China policy and they continue to try and persuade them to change allegiance. Some argue that this situation is the cause of what is commonly referred to as ‘chequebook diplomacy’ in the Pacific, where the one with the highest financial offering tends to win the battle for diplomatic recognition. Naturally China is concerned that the Pacific island countries that currently support China, including the Cook Islands, might also be courted by Taiwan and be persuaded to change diplomatic recognition. That is why I think they are enhancing their relationship with the Cook Islands and offering tangible assistance. Also, China sees the Cook Islands as having a very good reputation in the region and that they might have the ability to influence those Pacific countries who currently acknowledge Taiwan to change their diplomatic position towards China.”

This is important stuff indeed. An almost unnoticed battle between Taiwan and China for diplomatic influence in our own backyard. These views are presumably what John Bryan was reporting back to Wellington, and what would have been reported from our other diplomatic missions in the region. The Cold War is long over, thank goodness, and China is our friend. But so is Taiwan. We have excellent relationships with both, and we are seeking a free trade deal with China, the first it is likely to sign with a Western country. This makes activities such as China’s and Taiwan’s in our region of more than passing interest, as we could easily be caught up in them. As reported last Sunday by The Hive, Niue has established diplomatic relations with China despite New Zealand being responsible for Niue’s foreign affairs. The Taiwan issue is apparent there, too.

John Bryan’s opinions are of somewhat greater importance than what Lucy Lawless, Hollie Smith and Marcus Lush emote about whales, which the capital’s morning paper saw fit to make its page one lead yesterday. It would be nice to see his cogent, relevant views also get an airing in the mainstream media.

Wow! I would have thought the NZ media would be more interested in South Seas nations, especially since the foreign relations of so many of them are entangled with New Zealand's.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Chen Shui-bian] [State Department] [Democracy] [DPP] [Taiwan Independence] [New Zealand]

Friday, December 21, 2007

Last Two Nelson Reports: Taiwan Highlights

Chris Nelson of the Nelson Report is back from surgery and once again passing around insight into the Beltway Mind. Here's his latest excerpt on Taiwan affairs:

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It sounds like the private Chinese discussions of late mirror almost exactly much of the substance of concerns aired at Heritage, including what Taiwan law may require in the event either of the UN membership referenda are passed.

Both US and Chinese experts seem increasingly convinced that one or the other will pass, although no one can predict that a DPP presidential victory automatically means the DPP referendum also will be approved...and vice versa for the KMT.

But the real concern in both Washington and Beijing, at least, is that the DPP's Frank Hsieh will be president-elect, and also be faced with a successful DPP referendum AND a legal claim by President Chen that it has the force of law, no matter what Chen promised AIT's Ray Burghardt. [MT: This was corrected in the subsequent report:

CORRECTIONS...in last night's Report (12/18) we mistakenly wrote that Taiwan president Chen Shuibian had already contradicted his promise to AIT head Ray Burghardt that the DPP referendum...if passed in March...would not have the force of law.

We seem to have misunderstood a press question at the excellent Heritage Foundation discussion earlier in the day, and thought that a "what if" actually was a "he just said" problem.]

The US has long been concerned about China's propensity for actions which seem disproportionate to the practical reality of DPP actions in a real world...see the Anti-Secession Law, especially.[MT: this would seem to imply that the State Department's position is that if it doesn't talk at Taiwan, China will launch fighters.]

And China has long been concerned that even though it appreciates the strong rhetorical position of the Bush Administration toward DPP actions the US considers to be a risk to the peaceful status-quo, the US continues with manifestations of support (especially arms sales) which undercut the tough US line.[MT: But Jimmy Carter revealed last month that the Chinese had privately agreed to US arms sales in 1979. Isn't it time someone reminded them? ]

So, in a sense, both China and the US now worry about what China may feel compelled to do, perhaps against its enlightened self-interest, in the event of a DPP sweep of the presidency and referendum votes.[MT: Yes, we heard this rhetoric in 2000. And in 2004. Four years later, a millon Taiwanese have sunk $150 billion into China and everyone moves freely in and out. China can send a concrete signal any time it likes by acting against Taiwanese interests in China. Instead, it has successfully transferred the costs of deterrence to the US-Taiwan relationship. ]

The Bush/Yang, and now the Sun Yafu private meetings all seem aimed by China as spurring the US, and Bush personally, to even greater efforts to head-off the referendum vote.

We asked Amb. Joseph Wu about that after his eloquent, even passionate defense of his president and the referendum at Heritage, and Dr. Wu frankly warned that at this point, there is no turning back...the vote on both the DPP and KMT referendum will take place as scheduled.

Among the practical risks being incurred by Taiwan, discussants agreed, is that whatever one may think of the justice of the cause, the DPP policy puts in motion a dynamic in which China will feel justified in...for example...pressing for a UNGA [UN General Assembly] vote specifically endorsing Beijing's policy on "one China"...and perhaps even more likely, accelerating Beijing's "Dollar Diplomacy" against Taiwan's remaining formal diplomatic recognition partners around the world.[MT: It is highly unlikely that China will ever strip the ROC of its remaining diplomatic partners. That would isolate Taiwan and leave it unconnected to any version of China, encouraging further independence moves. A UN General Assembly vote is, from the propaganda standpoint, a thing to be feared.]

At risk of getting ourselves into trouble, we felt it was notable that discussants John Tkacik, Harvey Feldman and others, even though clearly sympathetic to the thrust of the international space and Taiwan identity goals of the DPP, frankly warned that the referendum battle was counter productive to Taiwan's international position, and especially its relations with the United States.[MT: Note two things: first, Taiwan needs to find a way to fix this problem pronto; and second, all of the discussants and pro-Taiwan types are conservatives or Establishment scholars. There is no Dem China policy, and there is no progressive discussion of Taiwan. Start talking, readers: what can Taiwan do to fix this mess with the US? ]

All discussants agreed that the Bush Administration has missed chances to actively sponsor Taiwanese international memberships in ways defined as acceptable to the PRC.
A current example...China's notification to the ICAO of two new air routes which just happen to go down the center of the Straits and which could have the effect of curtailing Taiwanese defense interests (and therefore US interests).

Despite having two major international airlines, Taiwan has not been supported for ICAO membership by the US, it was noted.

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UPDATE: ESWN has a link and translation to a blog in Chinese about the Heritage Meeting. Note how the events emphasized in the blog in Chinese are completely meaningless in the meeting account given by Nelson.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [China] [Kitty Hawk] [US]

Tancredo to Rice: Stop Interfering in Taiwan's Elections

Tom Tancredo's (R-COL) office just forwarded me a copy of his latest effort on Taiwan's behalf: a joint letter of Tancredo and Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) to Sec of State Rice asking the Administration to stop its interference in Taiwan's elections. Go Tancredo! Here's the letter in its entirety:

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The Honorable Condoleezza Rice
Secretary
U.S. Department of State
2201 C Street NW
Washington, DC 20520

Dear Secretary Rice,

We are writing to ask that the State Department cease its repeated efforts to affect the outcome of the upcoming elections in Taiwan, and specifically, the outcome of the planned referendum on membership in the United Nations. Your department has already made its objections to the referendum quite clear, and we are concerned that continued public criticism of the measure by U.S. officials will only contribute to the perception that the U.S. is playing political favorites in Taiwan.

Administration condemnations of the referendum have been numerous and public. In June, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack publicly urged people to reject the proposed U.N referendum. In August, John Negroponte arranged to appear on a Chinese television station to express U.S. opposition to the plebiscite, dangerously mischaracterizing it as “a step toward a declaration of independence.” A few days later, a National Security Council spokesman also blasted the referendum. Our AIT director in Taipei, Stephen Young has repeatedly criticized the proposal. The Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian affairs suggested that the “DPP referendum” is “inconsistent with President Chen’s inaugural pledges” (disregarding the fact that President Chen’s pledges were contingent on China not threatening to use force against the island). And just a few days ago, Raymond Burghardt publicly panned the upcoming vote as an obstacle to “develop[ing] relations across the Taiwan Strait.”

One or two public statements would be quite sufficient to convey the Administrations position to Taiwan’s elected officials on this matter. It is not necessary to continue dispatching an endless parade of U.S. officials to denounce and attack the proposal over a six month stretch while parroting the terminology used by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Doing so is not just unseemly, it is totally unnecessary. Given the vibrant debate on the issue inside Taiwan and the widely varying opinions on the wisdom and efficacy of the referendum among Taiwan’s numerous political parties, the Department’s sustained interference will do little more than contribute to what has already become a troubling – and unfortunately quite understandable – perception in Taiwan that the U.S. government is choosing sides in their elections.

We hope the Administration will refrain from orchestrating any further interference in the referendum question and will instead allow Taiwan’s political leaders, political parties and people to make this decision on their own. The people of Taiwan have earned the right to conduct their elections without coercion from our government, the government of the People’s Republic of China, or anyone else – and we should respect their right to do so.

Sincerely,

Tom Tancredo, M.C.
Dana Rohrabacher, M.C.

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"One or two public statements would be quite sufficient to convey the Administrations position to Taiwan’s elected officials on this matter. It is not necessary to continue dispatching an endless parade of U.S. officials to denounce and attack the proposal over a six month stretch while parroting the terminology used by the Chinese Foreign Ministry."

Yup. Good stuff, gentlemen.

[Taiwan]

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Day here and night there

Last week did a bit of walking.....but didn't use these boots, which my student assured me were really useful when she was bored in class.

Drove over to Hsin Tien ("new field") between Tanzi and Fengyuan for some enjoyable hiking on the trails in that area with Jim of Sponge Bear fame.

The road to the hiking area is on Fenghsing Rd. across from this cute police station....

...and up this road.

A sign points the way.

There's a large parking lot....

...with the inevitable KTV next door. Although it was only 8:30 am, singers were already going strong...or perhaps they were left over from the previous night.

Trails criss-cross the area, all accessible from the trailhead lined with vendors.

The walkways are in good condition and well developed.

Not very steep, in most cases, except for the intial ascent to the ridgeline.

If the day hadn't been so hazy -- a hazard of late fall and winter when the weather in Taichung is sunny and typhoon-free, the views would have been excellent.

As it was, there was plenty of wildlife...

...and small farms in the valleys. And finally, we reached that fabled spot, long rumored to exist somewhere in the mountains of Taiwan, where KTVs cannot be heard.

Taiwan's trails are filled with senior citizens, all of whom are in better shape than I am, judging from the ease with which they blow by me on the stairs.

After we descended from the ridge, we ran across this fellow making off with a load of old tires he'd rescued from a pile near the side of the road.

The road wound through the usual collection of irrigation canals and betel nut groves.

One thing not so common anymore: furniture dumping. Years ago, when I lived in Taipei, people used to routinely dump old furniture on roadsides or off of bluffs and cliffs. That behavior seems to be on the wane.

We came to this lovely bridge which led....

...to nowhere.

Last week I also had a good time walking around Tainan in the evening.

At dinnertime the bus stations and trains are filled with high school and junior high students making their way home. Taiwan's 14 hour working day begins in junior high school.