Tancredo and Taiwan

Conservative columnist Dave Kopel lambasted Rep. Tom Tancredo's home state media for failing to take note of Tancredo's work on behalf of Taiwan. I don't see why they should, as Taiwan is probably of little interest to the good citizens of Colorado, but I applaud Tancredo's hard work on behalf of the Beautiful Isle (and me a lifelong Dem too). The article above is a pretty good precis of Tancredo's numerous gestures in support of Taiwan, the latest being an invitation to Chen Shui-bian to visit Washington.

[Taiwan]

Been so busy recently, I haven't had time to go hiking in the hills near my house for quite some time. But yesterday I found myself with a clear day and a couple of hours.........

The wife of the guy who had picked all the oranges in the previous photo was selling them by the side of the trail.

There's always someone selling sausages...

Cars parked along the road, waiting for their owners to come back from the innumerable country KTVs that have sprouted at the foot of the mountains.

I arrived home to find the firecracker flowers we had planted last year were already in bloom. Nice day, if you ignore having to suffer in the concrete refrigerators that pass for housing in Taiwan.

[Taiwan]

Daily Links, Dec 17, 2006

Just sittin' around? Here's some reading for edification and entertainment.

Scott Sommers is threatened with legal action. Next time, try a polite letter, Mr. Lawyer.

Wulingren has a pointer to a piece from Atrios on swing voters. I've been wondering whether we actually have such animals in Taiwan.

A bunch of stuff over at Taiwan Matters! Maddog blogs on Chinese propaganda and KMT brainwashing. I reflection on the recent elections. Jerome Keating's article on Linda Arrigo and James Soong is up there.

Prince Roy blogs on the mystery of cabbage. Language sleuths will enjoy...

Mark Wilbur discusses his plans for now. Go, Mark!

Shinmin Junior High has jobs.

Patrick discusses how his grandpa bombed Kaohsiung in WWII.

I linked below, but again, Keywords tells you how to use the English train ticketing system.

Poagao complains that the DPP won the Kaohsiung election by cheating. Poagao's update is behind; the man behind the vote buying, one Yang, has fled the country. Criminals fleeing the country while wanted? That just never happens in Taiwan. But don't miss Poagao's election pics; he's an extremely talented photographer.

David cycles Tucheng.

Wild at Heart essays on environmental diplomacy.

initechnology, a great blog that is getting some fantastic play in the local press, has more old pics of Taiwan up every day.

Sponge Bear ventures up trail 4 in Takeng.

Todd has great pics of the Nantou flower show.

The Don visits Tokyo.

Pinyin Info has two great posts on characters. One looks at common "mistakes," the other simplified characters.

Battlepanda has interesting list of fun studies.

Someday I will do the Philippines with Anarchy in Taiwan. Fantastic post, fantastic pics.

Taiwan has it all: Turkey flavored Doritos, logged by the Taipei Kid.

Tea Masters is visited by an overseas reader. What a great experience!

ESWN posts on media extortion in Taiwan. A common problem, one I've seen many times in many ways.

Shop til ya drop! Christmas is only 8 days away.

[Taiwan] [Taiwan Blogs]

Taiwan Videos Group

I got alerted to this Taiwan video group on YouTube that plans to specialize in videos about social, cultural, geographic, and other similarly worthy topics on Taiwan. At the moment, there are only two members, so pile on board! You can join at the link above.

[Taiwan] [Taiwan videos]

Newsweek, Time, on the elections

Newsweek and Time both had fairly good articles on the recent Taipei mayoral elections, Time doing the better job. The Newsweek article notes:

If the election presages a KMT loss in 2008, the repercussions will be felt far beyond Taiwan’s shores. Business leaders, both Taiwanese and foreign, have had high hopes for KMT’s much-hyped chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Ma has vowed to expand cross-strait economic links to revive the island’s stagnant economy. A Ma victory in 2008 would also come as a relief for Beijing, which would like nothing better than to see the pro-independence party driven from power just ahead of the summer Olympics. And Washington, after more than six years of trying to restrain Chen’s nationalism, would welcome the more moderate Ma, who promises to keep all quiet in the Taiwan Strait. Saturday’s election is a “major defeat for Ma,” said George Tsai, a professor of international relations at Taipei’s National Chengchi University. “This result shows that if the KMT wants to win the next elections, they have to side with or respond to Taiwan identity—otherwise they have no chance.”

I have no idea why anyone thinks the pro-unification, pro-China, anti-Japan Ma Ying-jeou is a "moderate" since he presides over a party that has repeatedly stiffed both local voters and Taiwan's ally, the US, is busily deconstructing rational governance on the island, and embraces a radical political position that is not only a minority position on the island, but advocates dissolution of the current status quo. The idea that the US has to "restrain" Chen is a pro-KMT staple. Sadly, Mad Chen the Crazed Independence Nut, the bogeyman of the international press, continues to haunt their portrayals of the island. And of course, the article takes the slanted position that it is the DPP that is stopping "reconciliation" with China -- as if there was no such thing as Chinese intransigence, and no missiles pointed at Taiwan. Can we have some balance please?

Still, though there is much to disagree with, this is a much better reading of the election than the one in the International Herald Tribune the other day. I love way that suddenly the Pit of Hell has opened in front of the international media: media darling Ma Ying-jeou may be vulnerable in 2008. No shit, really? You guys are only a couple of years behind the Taiwan political blogosphere in discovering this. At least he recognizes the implicit media position on Ma, describing him as "much-hyped." Good work, that.

Meanwhile Time also has a creditable article on the elections. And yes, it cites Emile Sheng (why?) but it does correctly identify him as the spokesman for the campaign to depose the President:

Supporters of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are celebrating a narrow win in Saturday's mayoral election in the southern port city of Kaohsiung this week. But the greatest exultation over the result may be in the capital, Taipei. The Kaohsiung race had been viewed as a key indicator of whether the corruption scandals involving President Chen Shui-bian and his family had seriously damaged the strength of his party. The DPP's narrow victory indicates that the President, whom many opponents were expecting to step down just a month ago, still has some clout left. "I think that Chen passed a very critical political test," says Emile Sheng, a political science professor at Soochow University and a spokesman for the campaign to oust the president. "The fact that the DPP won this election, it probably means Chen passed the political crisis."

So many in the punditocracy are seeing the election as a referendum on Chen. Several other people were also tested -- including Ma Ying-jeou. The Time article correctly notes that Ma got nailed by the special funds scandal, but I haven't seen anything in the international press that really describes the beating he has taken in the last few months -- the election loss in Kaohsiung, the slush fund scandal, the attacks on him by the Shih campaign, and the steady campaign from party insiders to curb his power and influence in the party.

[Taiwan] [China] [Ma Ying-jeou] [missiles] [Chen Shui-bian] [Kaohsiung] [DPP] [KMT] [PFP] [TSU] [media] [Emile Sheng] (hat tip to Jerome)

Hungry Girl's Guide

Looking for places to chow down in Taipei? Stumbled across this blog today that focuses on restaurants in Taipei: a hungry girl's guide to Taipei. Here's a sample from a recent post:

Mr. Paco might sound like a dive that serves Mexican food, but actually it's a quaint comfortable restaurant that serves Italian fare such as pizza, risotto, pasta, salads and desserts. My friend works near here and raved about it to me more than once. After a long day, we thought we'd have an early dinner around 5:30pm or so. The space was really cute and bisto-ish, with burnt orange walls and candles on each table that would be great for a romantic date or a lively dinner out with friends and family. It was unusually quiet because we were there off-peak- she said it's sometimes hard to get a table during their rush hours.

[Taiwan] [Taipei] [Taiwan Blogs]

Buying train tickets online? Keywords has the inside dope

Feeling that frustration trying to figure out how use the English language train ticket purchase system? Kerim has found the Grail:

So … we head over to the English language site and navigate the menu “ticket — internet ticketing” which gives us a 404 Page Not Found error. That’s because the link is incorrect and hasn’t been fixed in the six months I’ve been in Taiwan. Come to think of it, the system didn’t work five years ago either … although the page has had a redesign. (Honestly, before it had a starry night-time theme and the links didn’t work then either.) Anyway, here is the correct link. But before you go there you might want to look at this web page which gives you an easy to navigate schedule - don’t ask how I found it, it seems that Taiwan Rail has about half a dozen different web pages each seemingly maintained by completely different people who don’t talk to each other. Go Go Go! Good Good Good! Once you’ve picked the train number you can go directly to this page and enter the relevant data. (Note that the “departure date” menu is still in Chinese, although the lack of Chinese encoding on this page makes the day of the week appear as gibberish.)

Read the whole post, it's excellent. Go thou, and purchase!

[Taiwan] [Trains] [Keywords]

Emile Sheng: New York Times/IHT Do It AGAIN

Somewhere inside the personnel offices of the international media, there's an advertisement for Taiwan reporters that reads something like this:

WANTED: Reporter, Taiwan affairs. Must know nothing about Taiwan. Must listen uncritically to pro-China sources. Must speak patronizingly of pro-democracy advocates. Must not be able to discern the political slant of interviewees. Must be unable to learn anything about local politics, culture, and history. Must not be able to look past the most recent election. CRITICAL SKILLS: must be able to locate Emile Sheng.

Yes, that's right, the international media has done it again: some clueless reporter has cited Emile Sheng as if he were a neutral source and not a pro-China, anti-Chen poser who was the international media spokesman for the recent pro-Blue campaign to depose Chen Shui-bian led by Shih Ming-te. Last time it was Yardley in the New York Times. This time...

....the latest flatpeter to cite Emile Sheng is Patrick Smith in this article in the International Herald Tribune. This article is so completely one-sided that it sounds like a Greatest Hits piece from a KMT internal publication, but let's begin with this passage:

"Lien Chan's visit changed the climate," said Emile Sheng, a political scientist at Soochow University. "The Nationalists are now much more confident talking about 'economic integration.' It's no longer considered disloyal."

The shift in public sentiment was underscored in mayoral elections in the southern city of Kaohsiung, the island's large port city where pro-independence views are traditionally strong and where Chen's Democratic Progressive Party draws its core support.

The election was seen as a bellwether of voter sentiment and is likely to strengthen the determination of those advocating an accommodation with Beijing.

The governing party candidate won by the smallest margin in Taiwan's political history: 1,114 votes out of more than 770,000 cast. The vote is now to be recounted after the Kuomintang contested the results, although most expect the governing party's narrow victory to stand.

Kaohsiung voters soundly rejected both the People First Party, which advocates a scheme for reunification with China, and the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which calls for an immediate declaration of Taiwan independence.

This sequence begins with the citation of Emile Sheng. No clue is given to the reader that Sheng is a well-known pro-Blue academic, not an uninvolved political analyst. Sheng's pro-Blue stance is known to international media representatives posted to Taiwan; I have discussed this personally with a couple of them. Further, if you Google "Emile Sheng" that information comes up in many places, including other posts on this blog. I guess in the alternate reality inhabited by foreign correspondents, there's no Google, and everyone uses Baidu.

The next paragraph then klewlessly rambles: "The shift in public sentiment was underscored in mayoral elections in the southern city of..."

What shift in public sentiment? As I noted a few posts below (Election Reflection), in 2002 the Greens, represented only by the DPP, garnered 386K votes. In 2006, the Greens, represented by both the DPP and the TSU, again grabbed 386K votes. There hasn't been any shift in public sentiment. The closeness of the election was due entirely to the TSU poaching votes from the DPP, and to the KMT's much better get-out-the-vote tactics this year. It's not difficult to find this out; there are numerous sites on the internet that give the vote totals for Kaohsiung in 2002. But I guess being an international media correspondent means never having to use Google. Or to research the information one is being fed. Can I get that job? I'm tired of actually struggling to understand what is going on in Taiwan.....

Meanwhile Smith then glurges:

Kaohsiung voters soundly rejected both the People First Party, which advocates a scheme for reunification with China, and the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which calls for an immediate declaration of Taiwan independence.

I know research is difficult and involves many disparate skills, such as reading and keyboarding, but probably if Smith had done just a little searching, he might have discovered what Chen Chu's probable stance on independence is. The DPP advocates a more moderate approach to independence, but the difference between the TSU and the DPP is one of tactics, not goals. Both want an independent Taiwan. The TSU candidate lost in Kaohsiung because he comes from a tiny party with no cash for a big election, no history of administrative success, and little hope for future survival, that competes for the same voter base with a large established party, not because the TSU advocates "immediate" independence. But writing all that would take time and effort. It's much easier to avoid difficult things like net searches.

Here's a simple fact: it is 100% silly to conclude anything about Taiwan's foreign policy proclivities from its local level elections. Especially any single election. Especially elections in Kaohsiung, where vote-buying is rampant. Voters do not accept or reject city council candidates based on their pro- or anti-independence views, but rather on complex issues of local money flows, interpersonal relationships, clever campaign gimmicks (like our village chief, who directs traffic in front of my daughter's school every morning), and corruption.

Meanwhile, let's go look at the rest of Smith's article. Here's another juicy bit:

"We're looking at a 30- to 50-year peace accord," said Joanna Lei, a Kuomintang legislator and a prominent theorist in the party's younger generation.

"This is the direction public opinion is taking — slowly, like a cargo carrier, but absolutely it is changing," Lei said.

The "status quo agreement," as the notion has come to be known, appears likely to emerge as a principal campaign issue as Chen's second and final term draws to a close in 2008.

Taiwan's voters are shying away from the assertive stance on independence that propelled Chen to office six years ago. While a strong sense of a separate identity remains, there is growing impatience with cross-strait tensions and anxiety over the island's future.

Surveys show that about 60 percent of people favor maintaining the status quo in relations with China.

A strong sense of Taiwan's economic accomplishments and identity has long been a feature of local political culture, and until recently this tilt had put the Nationalists at a disadvantage.

A turning point came last year, however, when Lien Chan, the Kuomintang chairman at the time, traveled to China for the first of two visits. Both visits — the second was last April — were seen as a sign that healthier relations with the mainland were possible and that the Nationalists may be able to reduce tensions that had grown since Chen took office.

The "30 year peace accord" is one of Soong's old campaign promises from the election of 2000 that Ma Ying-jeou floated a while back. The international media loves it, but as I have pointed out, Ma has conceded that in fact China has not agreed to any of this "commonwealth" stuff. A while ago I wrote of this in response to an interview with Ma on ABC radio:

Also observe that Ma says two things clearly (1) they have already talked to Beijing about this and (2) the 30 to 50 year treaty is strictly for outside consumption:

When I talked about a peace agreement, they didn't talk about a duration. I put 30 to 50 years to it, simply to make it work, okay.

In other words, whatever Ma says, he has no modus vivendi. Beijing wants to annex Taiwan, and it wants to annex it now. It isn't going to wait for some unspecified period in the future.

The thirty-year treaty is vapor aimed strictly at the foreign media. China hasn't and will not agree to let Taiwan go for another generation, especially with rising identification among locals as "Taiwanese" here.

I can't let this little bit go either -- it shows another commonplace of foreign media discourse on Taiwan:

A turning point came last year, however, when Lien Chan, the Kuomintang chairman at the time, traveled to China for the first of two visits. Both visits — the second was last April — were seen as a sign that healthier relations with the mainland were possible and that the Nationalists may be able to reduce tensions that had grown since Chen took office.

The slant of this is obvious: there's no mention of the fact that China categorically refuses to talk to the DPP -- instead, the DPP is blamed for stoking tensions -- obviously a pro-KMT perspective. Further, the article remarks that the Nationalists may be able to "reduce tensions." Anyone recall when Ma Ying-jeou said in February that China should remove the missiles facing Taiwan? And how quickly the KMT backed away from that position and agreed that yes, it was OK that China points missiles at Taiwan? I suppose you can "reduce tensions" by agreeing that the other side has the right to threaten to murder you....

Smith's article contains numerous cites from pro-Blue "analysts" but only one from the pro-democracy side. I'll leave the reader with this gem:

But the idea of setting aside political and diplomatic issues for a fixed interim is a compelling one for Taiwan's electorate, which overwhelmingly supports stable relations with Beijing even as it craves more international respect and recognition for Taiwan.

Of course the electorate wants peace. Who doesn't? But what Smith doesn't convey to the reader is that the problem isn't Taiwan. It's China. China will agree to a "fixed peace" -- but only on its terms. Smith does not make this clear at all; the article focuses entirely on the actions of the KMT and the DPP, and paints the latter as tension inducing. The slant is manifest.

Please, NYT/IHT. Stop sending us correspondents who don't know anything and either can't or won't learn.

BONUS: Doncha love how that foreign media breathlessly repeats the KMT allegation that Wu is a slut for fashion? Here the AP regurgitates the KMT line perfectly:

Wu has also been pilloried in the Taiwanese media over her jewelry collection, which includes an expensive Breguet watch and jade earrings valued at 6 million New Taiwan dollars.

Opponents and even some former friends have likened her to the Empress Dowager Cixi, the early-20th-century Chinese monarch widely reviled for her luxurious lifestyle and willful political maneuvering.

It's the pro-Blue media, not the Taiwanese media, that's been hacking on Wu, shamelessly forgetting the excesses of Soong Mei-ling, and ignoring such goodies as the massive collection of branded fashions owned by the wife of Lien Chan, the former KMT chairman and now the Grand Old Man of the party. Not to mention failing to point out that Chen Shui-bian was not exactly impoverished as a successful lawyer prior to beginning his political career. Of course Wu loves fashion -- most women do.

I would also like to point out that there is a hidden anti-democratic trope that this tripe unconsciously appeals to -- that of the authoritarian leader whose wife is a slave to fashion, like Marcos, or Peron. Essentially, the reporter has agreed to present the KMT's claim that Chen is a "corrupt dictator," packaged in a very subtle way. It's precisely in this manner that the international media does the anti-democracy dirty work of the KMT.

There are a few lights in the darkness of the international media. Keith Bradsher, as always, does excellent work here on the elections. Reuters has a very balanced and detailed article on the trial of the First Lady. Clearly it is possible to turn out informed, balanced presentations of Taiwan. Apparently, though, only a minority of reporters are both willing and able to do it.

[Taiwan] [China] [Taiwan Independence] [Ma Ying-jeou] [missiles] [Chen Shui-bian] [Kaohsiung] [DPP] [KMT] [PFP] [TSU] [media] [Emile Sheng]

Taichung: [IN]Xing Studios Children's Christmas Fun

[IN]Xing passes along this message about their Xmas festivities:

+++++++++++++

My dear friends,

How are you!

We have good news to share with you. On Saturday, Dec. 23, [IN] Xing is having its yearly Christmas Party. We are very happy to invite you to participate!!!

During the day, from 9:00 to 16:00, we have a children workshop (7-12 year old): Christmas, story and traditions. Chad Leslie & Victor Garnier will introduce the kids to the origins of Christmas through story telling and games, they'll learn traditional Christmas songs, as well as develop arts and crafts activities giving the kids the chance to practice English in a fun and unique way.


At 4:30, kids and adults can then enjoy a Christmas cartoon in our Barn Movie Theatre.

At night, we have a party with Home Cooked Christmas Dinner, a special Shadow Puppet Performance, Activities and Game Time and video projection.

And if you missed the workshop on the 23rd, you can take it again on Sunday the 24th! ( same content, same age group).

Prices:

All day Workshop: 800 NT$ per child, including material, food, drinks and snacks (maximum 20 participants)

Performance & Games: 200 NT$ @ the door (150NT$ for pre-booked tickets)

Christmas Dinner: 200NT$ (drinks not included) (150NT$ for group 5 people above)

Important note:

Workshop and Dinner MUST be booked before December 20th!

Please check out our website for detailed information about the program for the night and feel free to give us a call or drop us an e-mail if you want to find out more.

We hope to see you there!! Please help us to forward this message to the people you would like to share with.

Thank you very much.

Jodie LEE

Administrator

Xing Theatre Company / MACWAC Productions Ltd.

++++++++++++++++++

We had a really good time the first time we visited them. This is a serious group of very talented performers. I hope you'll give them a shot.

[Taiwan] [Taichung]

Japan Times on Recent Elections, Improved Ties

Japan comments on the recent elections.....it's a simple commentary, and yet, better balanced than many:

Despite the DPP's win in the Kaohsiung mayoral election, it is safe to assume that Mr. Chen won't be able to recover his former influence in the party and that rivalry among leading DPP members for the 2008 presidential race will intensify.

For his part, Mr. Ma will probably have a harder time gaining support as a presidential candidate because of his inability to take full advantage of the favorable pre-election conditions for his party. Moreover, there is a report that Mr. Ma, the outgoing Taipei mayor, may be indicted in connection with his use of special funds in the mayor's office. He is likely to be challenged by other powerful KMT politicians. All told, Taiwan's political situation appears more fluid.

Meanwhile, another small sign of warming relations:

People with Taiwanese driver's licenses may soon be allowed to drive in Japan during short-term stays, government sources said Tuesday.

The National Police Agency plans to present a bill to revise the Road Traffic Law to allow for the change, requested by Taiwan, during the next Diet session, which will begin next month.

Taiwanese cannot get international driver's licenses because Taiwan hasn't joined the Convention on Road Traffic, which has about 90 signatory countries and territories, including Japan.

Taiwanese visitors to Japan grew 18 percent to hit a record 1.27 million in 2005, according to the Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry. They were the second-largest group that year and accounted for 18 percent of all foreign arrivals.

[Taiwan] [Japan] (Hat tip to Sponge Bear)

Election Reflection

"Why do the Gods of the City fail to stop this thing?"
"I feel it is because they are weakened, if that is what you want to hear, Lord. Since the disaster by the Vedra they have been somewhat afraid to squelch the progress of mechanism with violence. It has also been said that there is internal strife in the City, between the demigods and what remains of their elders. Then there is the matter of the new religion. Men no longer fear Heaven so much as they used to. They are more willing to defend themselves; and now that they are better equipped, the gods are less willing to face them."
"Then Sam is winning. Across the years, he is beating them."

Another fun-filled Taiwan election has come and gone, with the usual allegations that the ruling party will be tested, Taiwanese dislike corruption, and swing voters will determine the outcome. The BBC has the CW:

Mayoral votes in Taiwan's two largest cities have ended, with the opposition winning in the capital Taipei but losing in the port of Kaohsiung.

The governing Democratic Progressive Party's candidate narrowly held on to the party's stronghold of Kaohsiung.

But the opposition Kuomintang party's candidate won a huge victory in Taipei.

A BBC correspondent says the result is not the crushing blow some had expected the government to suffer. The vote was seen as a key test for the government.

Many had portrayed the elections as a public referendum on President Chen Shui-bian's administration, following a series of corruption scandals.

The elections had been presented in the international media and in the local Blue media as a test of the President. They were not. They were about local politics, and were decided on voter identities as each party scrambled to get out its base. The DPP was successful in maintaining its vote, and the KMT recovered some of the base in Kaohsiung that had fallen away in 2002. Each party can take away successes from this election. Congrats are due all around.

The BBC, which is, at the moment, pro-KMT, regards Hau's victory in Taipei as 'huge.' It is true Hau won by 13 points, but the previous election saw Ma win by 28, and this time Frank Hsieh, a smart and energetic political campaigner, gained a 3 point increase over Lee Ying-yuan in 2002, while garnering 40% of the vote.

On the other hand, with his ascension to the throne of Taipei, Hau must be taken seriously as a presidential candidate a few years down the road, just as Ma was after he became Taipei mayor. This is especially true in the KMT, which does not have many strong candidates with appeal beyond the local level or beyond certain segments of the party.

The big loser in Taipei was not the DPP, but the PFP, which has melted away in its stronghold of Taipei, losing 4 of the 6 seats it held in the city council. The importance of these seats should not be underestimated -- by controlling city council seats, the PFP has a say in how the funds are doled out to local Taipei firms and organizations. Without one's hands on the money wheel, the ship of state tends to take a direction away from one's supporters (longtime Taiwan-watcher Lawrence Eyton's article on the Kaohsiung City Council election that was bought by Chu An-hsiung is a great introduction to local money politics on the Beautiful Island.)

Followers of the local politics will recall, of course, that in Taiwan politics is ruthlessly local, ruled by local faction arrangements often centered around local temple and benevolent associations that bring together politicians, business, and local organized crime. It always pays to give attention to what happens at the local level, and there we can see some surprising changes. In Taipei the DPP and its allies gained three seats; in Kaohsiung the KMT gained 5. That is in part the result of rampant vote buying, a chronic problem in Kaohsiung, since the DPP has slowly but surely been gaining ground on the KMT at the local level.

In Taipei Hsieh's strong showing, combined with gains for the DPP and the TSU, as well as the crushing blow to the PFP, amount to a DPP success -- certainly morally, if not in fact.

David said, "Of these, twenty-four thousand are to supervise the work of the temple of the LORD and six thousand are to be officials and judges.

In Kaohsiung, things were just the opposite. Chen's Chu's narrow victory was almost certainly the result of the presence of the TSU candidate in the race. In 2002 the DPP won by more than 25,000 votes, 386K to 361K, with no TSU or PFP candidates in the race. In 2006, the KMT gained 17K votes to reach 378K -- which looks like a huge gain, until one recalls that in 1998 they spiked at 383K. Had they merely reached their 1998 levels, they would have won handily.

By the same contrast, the DPP's 379K vote was 7K less than 2002. One might argue that the DPP has fallen off, except that the TSU took 6,500 votes. The 2006 TSU + DPP total is 386K votes. Hence Chen Chu's showing was not some statistical blip or DPP failure, but the direct result of the TSU poaching votes from the DPP; the number of Green voters remains unchanged. Meanwhile the KMT gain was due entirely to success in getting out the vote, not to voters switching parties due to some putative disappointment with the DPP. Again, had the KMT reached its 1998 level, it would have won.

Another note: the invalid ballots, all six thousand of them. The majority of them have turned out to be ballots that were intended for Chen Chu, chopped incorrectly. Unlike the KMT, the DPP has not developed a system for mobilizing its voters and training them to vote properly. The same thing happened in the 2004 Presidential election, when the majority of the 300,000 invalid ballots that had recognizable votes appeared to be for Chen. Lots of people out there, especially seniors, who just don't get the system yet.

Meanwhile, lets think about these numbers. Two elections in a row, the Greens get 386,000 votes. The KMT gets 361K followed by 378K, down from a peak of 383K in Kaohsiung. The so called "light blues" or "light greens" don't exist. There is no middle. There are no swing voters. There is no segment of the electorate that policy arguments have to impress -- on many policies, everyone already agrees. Why are politics in Taiwan so identity oriented? Because victory doesn't depend on moving toward the middle to grab the swing voters, the way it might in the US. Victory depends on the simple ability to mobilize one's own base. Thus, the question Bruce Jacobs asked in an excellent piece in today's Taipei Times is answered:

This being the case, why has Ma since then courted the far-right of conservative politics? Why has he tried to do deals with People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and gain the small minority of Mainlander votes rather than going for the localist Taiwanese center?

Why can't Ma move toward the middle? Because there is no middle. Where could Ma go that he wouldn't leave his Deep Blue base behind?

"This is the writing that was inscribed: MENE, TEKEL, and PERES. These words mean: MENE, God has numbered your kingdom and put an end to it; TEKEL, you have been weighed on the scales and found wanting; PERES, your kingdom has been divided and given to the Medes and Persians." Then by order of Belshazzar they clothed Daniel in purple, with a gold collar about his neck, and proclaimed him third in the government of the kingdom. The same night Belshazzar, the Chaldean king, was slain:

Who was tested? Well, the international media thought it would be Chen Shui-bian, but it looks like the big losers were James Soong and Ma Ying-jeou. The Taipei Times reported:

While a number of party legislators have voiced their frustration, lamenting the party's poor performance in Kaohsiung, and urged the party to place more emphasis on promoting localization, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) interpreted the election results as a confirmation of the status quo and argued that the party expanded its support base in the southern city by attracting almost half of the votes.

What does this reveal? Well, one can hardly blame Ma for the loss in Kaohsiung. Candidate Huang lost by 1,000 votes and came within 5,000 votes of the KMT's peak Kaohsiung performance, gaining 17,000 votes on the 2002 total. In tightly-fought Kaohsiung, that's not too shabby, especially considering what a good job the previous DPP mayor, Frank Hsieh, had done there. Ma's spinning of the higher number as "expanding" the KMT's support base is completely bogus, but the effort in Kaohsiung almost paid off in victory. More importantly, the KMT added five seats on the all-important city council, which will enable it to make trouble for Chen Chu -- just as the KMT did for Chen when he was mayor of Taipei, and later, when he was President and the Blues had a majority in the legislature. If I were the KMT I wouldn't be overly unhappy.

I suspect that the legislators' attack on Ma reflects the ongoing, quiet campaign against him conducted by the politicians allied to Lien Chan and Wang Jin-pyng. The Kaohsiung loss is just an excuse for another iteration of calls for Lien to join Ma in the election. One of the analysts noted:

Failing to defeat a DPP embroiled in multiple troubles was nonetheless a frustration to the KMT and a serious setback for Ma, said Wang Yeh-lih (王業立), a political scientist at Tunghai University.

"Ma's leadership will be questioned, and he may have to compromise in choosing his partner in the 2008 presidential election in order to please the southern residents," he said.

In addition to being more "localized," Shih suggested that Ma should work on his relationship with former KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), as the party's pro-localization faction has questioned Ma's leadership and suggested Lien pair up with Wang in 2008.

"Integrating different voices in the party is Ma's job. But he thought he could rule the party without Lien and Wang ... I don't think he is reflecting properly on his and the party's strategy judging from his reaction to the elections," Shih said.

Cultural note: when you screw up in Chinese culture, you are supposed to "reflect" on what you have done. One of Shih Ming-teh's constant accusations against Chen Shui-bian was that he had failed to "reflect" on his behavior.

The spectacle of the KMT attempting to campaign on the corruption of the Other Party was certainly interesting, especially to manufacturers of irony meters, who were no doubt filling orders by the gross. It simply highlights one of the KMT's major problems: its inability to offer clear and bold policy solutions that capture voter imagination. Ma's reliance on negative campaigning is the inevitable outcome of the KMT being hamstrung by its own anti-Taiwan stance. A sophisticated understanding and offering of public policy would tend to reinforce positive governance on the island, which in turn tends to support Taiwan's ability to be independent -- an anathema to the KMT's ally, China. Thus, the easiest solution to the contradictions inherent in being a party dedicated to the elimination of independent governance is negative campaigning.

To be fair, as I noted earlier, since there is so often broad agreement on fundamental policies among supporters of both parties that the only real differences relate to the struggle over the island's identity. Everyone simply defaults to the constant negative campaigning on both sides -- still ongoing, as the anti-DPP ad below shows:

You all did see that on the Lupercal
I thrice presented him a kingly crown,
Which he did thrice refuse: was this ambition?

Meanwhile, Soong. In the wake of his feeble showing in the Blue stronghold of Taipei, PFP Chairman James Soong announced his retirement from politics...

Having enjoyed a record-high 4.7 million votes in the 1994 Taiwan Provincial Governor election, People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) yesterday announced an end to his decades-long political career after failing in his Taipei mayoral bid, garnering just 53,281 votes, or 4.14 percent of the total ballots.

Hahahaha. How many times have we seen this little play performed? Remember when Ma Ying-jeou wasn't going to run for mayor of Taipei, and his father had to "beg" him? Right on cue, Soong's followers tripped over themselves to fawn and clutch at his robes....

People First Party (PFP) lawmakers yesterday urged Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), who announced on Saturday that he would quit politics, to change his mind.

"It would be a loss to Taiwan and the Taiwanese people if Soong were to leave politics," PFP Secretary-General Chin Chin-sheng (秦金生) told a press conference

Calling Soong "indispensable" to the country and the party, Deputy Legislative Speaker Chung Jung-chi (鍾榮吉) called on Soong to stay with the party at this "crucial moment."

Soong will be back, if for nothing else, then for revenge. Meanwhile the small parties, everyone agrees, are on their way out. If the PFP melts away after the 2007 legislative election, what then for Soong?

Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods. -- H. L. Mencken.

Who won? Taiwan won. Another successful democratic election was held. The close vote in Kaohsiung will motivate large turnouts in future polls. The good showing of Hsieh in Taipei reminds us that voters there have not given up on the DPP. The KMT's eternal complaining notwithstanding, the recount in Kaohsiung is a reasonable request for such a close election. Procedures were followed. The public once again becomes used to the normality of a world where it has a choice.

Life goes on.

[Taiwan] [DPP] [KMT] [Chen Shui-bian] [James Soong] [Taipei] [Kaohsiung] [Chen Chu] [Ma Ying-jeou]

Bruce Jacobs: A Refreshing Academic

"If you have sacrificed my nation to preserve the peace of the world, I will be the first to applaud you. But if not, gentlemen, God help your souls." Jan Masaryk to Chamberlain and Halifax after the infamous surrender at Munich

After so many academics have slammed Taiwan independence and scolded Taiwan for rejecting international arrangements that the islanders never had a say in, Bruce Jacobs of Monash U in Australia hits one out of the park for the good guys in the CS Monitor:

The US must continue to work closely with other interested nations - such as Australia, Japan, Canada, and European countries - to give Taiwan international standing, such as observer status, or even membership, in the World Health Organization (WHO). Disease does not recognize borders and Taiwan has suffered from not having proper representation in this forum. The 2003 SARS outbreak, for example, killed many more people than necessary in Taiwan because of the slow international response. China's claim that it can represent Taiwan in WHO has repeatedly proved to be false.

Taiwan should also be integrated into a variety of international forums and activities. The island has formal diplomatic relations with the Solomon Islands and gives significant aid. It would help the Solomon Islands as well as donor nations if Taiwan's aid could be integrated into the multilateral aid efforts that include the US, Australia, and Japan. Such efforts could be replicated elsewhere.

Taiwan should also be welcomed into the Australia Group, which seeks to assure that industries in the 38 member countries do not assist states that try to acquire chemical and biological weapons.

The article contains a review of the arguments for Taiwan independence. Nothing new to aficionados, but it is good to see it in a major international media organ. A refreshing view, so different from the real-men-arrange-the-fate-of-nations viewpoint that one often sees in foreign policy circles, especially US foreign policy circles. Thanks, Dr. Jacobs.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Asia] [Democracy] [Taiwan Independence] [Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)] [US Foreign Policy] (hat tip to Peking Duck)

Peking Duck: Things I'll Miss About Taiwan

Foreigners complain a lot about Taiwan -- foreigners often complain about other foreigners complaining about Taiwan, forgetting that the most vociferous critics of Formosa are the Taiwanese themselves. We somehow often fail to notice how great things can be here: the Taiwanese are wonderful people. Richard at Peking Duck says good-bye to a great experience on the Beautiful Island...

First, there are the people. The Taiwanese are truly a class act - gracious, polite, willing to stop and help strangers, always putting their best face forward even in hard times. And even the aforementioned taxi drivers - they, too, amaze me with their kindness and honesty and refusal to sacrifice their morals. At least three times, including just this past weekend, I've gotten into a taxi not knowing my destination was just around the corner, and they dropped me off and refused to take any money. (In Shanghai, I've been driven literally a few inches and paid the full fare, though the driver could simply have pointed and said, "It's right across the street, over there.") And the taxi drivers, and just about everyone else here, are just so nice, so decent and caring. Quite a different story than in Hong Kong. Similar to what I often experienced in Singapore, but no where else in Asia (or the US, for that matter).

I don't think I love the people of any other country more than I love the Taiwanese. I can tell story after story about good Samaritans, delightful conversations with strangers, offers to help from out of the blue. And just thinking about it now, knowing I will be here only another five or six days (three days this week, and a couple days in January when I return and gather my stuff), I am filled with a sentimental mixture of sadness and appreciation and respect. I know I am going to miss these people soon. Very soon.

There are lots of little things that make Taiwan so magical. The throngs of people lining the main roads like Zhongxiao Dong Lu all through the night, even at midnight, shopping and eating and drinking. The immaculate subways and an infrastructure that really works. The courtesy of the drivers, who actually stop as the light turns red and always yield to pedestrians. The odd weekly ritual when seemingly everyone in the neighborhood gathers on the street to socialize with one another as they wait for the garbage truck to come and take away their trash. (There are almost no public wastebaskets here, and getting rid of garbage is a social event - you really have to see it to understand and appreciate it. Literally hundreds of people pour onto the street to participate, carrying their plastic bags of carefully separated recyclable and disposable rubbish.) The gorgeous mountains that surround the city, leading to the hot springs of Beitou. The boisterous night markets where the vendors never push you to buy and the prices are fair (bargaining doesn't seem to be part of the general culture here). The little alleys that wind around the major streets filled with small shops and restaurants. Honest landlords who go out of their way to provide excellent service. Even honest real estate brokers. I know there must be crime and dishonesty here, but I've never seen it.

Tell it, Richard....it's a privilege to live on the Beautiful Island

[Taiwan]

East Coast to Be Developed

The government is expanding long-standing plans to develop the east coast....

The project, formally known as the "Eastern Taiwan Sustainable Development Plan," is expected to be in the pipeline beginning today when the CEPD convenes its first meeting on the project.

Under the plan, the government will invest some NT$50 billion over nine years to transform the eastern corridor - from Yilan County's Nanao and Tatung rural townships to Hualien and Taitung counties - into an international-standard tourism area, conserving eastern Taiwan's natural beauty while building an environment with a leading quality of life, CEPD officials said.

Specifically, the project will feature developing the tourism industry in the corridor's rural townships; developing an industrial processing zone for deep-sea products; promoting an "immigration" program to build new tribal villages in the area; developing a cottage industry-based economy; bolstering railway and multiple transportation systems; and reviewing the existing policy of transporting sand and gravel from east to west Taiwan, according to CEPD officials.

The project - initiated by former Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) in August 2005 and put on the drawing board in February this year with Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) as the new premier - is expected to be carried out via 18 sub-plans and 45 tasks, planned and implemented concertedly by the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Council of Agriculture and the Environmental Protection Administration.

I discussed the policy of shifting gravel operations away from the west over to the east coast a while back. Developing the east coast has strong political implications -- in addition to changing the pace of lifestyles, it will create new financial links between the DPP and local factions in an area that has long been a KMT stronghold. Despite the article's claim that the project was initiated by Premier Frank Hsieh, plans to develop the east coast for industry and tourism have been in the works for many years. I can't wait to read what Wild at Heart has to say about this.

[Taiwan] [Taitung] [Hualien] [Ilan] [environment]

BBC on Aboriginal Festival

The BBC has a good article on a famous local aboriginal festival:

Once upon a time, so the legend goes, the Saisiyat people - one of Taiwan's 12 officially-recognised aboriginal groups - lived in mountains next to a tribe of dark-skinned dwarves, or pygmies.

The short-people were both feared and admired by the Saisiyat as they were thought to have magical powers. But they also had bad tempers, and often flirted and made advances towards the Saisiyat women.

The story varies in detail but, according to one version, the short people were invited to the Saisiyat's annual harvest festival and angered one man by making advances towards his wife.

He took revenge by cutting down a bridge that killed all but two of the short people, who put a curse on the Saisiyat.

Alarmed, the Saisiyat begged for mercy and were forgiven on one condition - that they sing the songs and dances of the pygmies - called the Ta'ai - to appease the spirits of those they killed.

UPDATE: in response to the comments below, I know for a fact that Gluck attended the festival, one reason this article is so good.

[Taiwan]