Hegemonic Conflict Watch: China's ADIZ roundup

Took the Motao out to Shihlin Night Market the other day.

So much commentary -- apparently China's new ADIZ woke the world up. We've arrived at one of those historical moments when even the densest dunderheads can see, a Panay moment, or a remilitarization of the Rhineland moment, when onlookers are beginning to realize the coming course of events....

...China has already scrambled planes in response to US and Japanese flights, Chinese media reports. Japan denies this.

Lots of good stuff out there. Corey Wallace over at China Policy Institute observes:

The Chinese government is increasingly perceived in Japan to be implementing a calculated and “staged” approach to undermining Japan’s claims to the Senkaku Islands, and using antipathy towards Japan as a justification for pursuing a more expansive military policy. For example, in September 2012, the PRC submitted to the United Nations the coordinates for demarcating the territorial seas around the islands. This was identified a precursor to maintaining a routine presence in and around the islands, and since this point incursions in the territorial waters around the islands have rapidly increased. Just two days prior to the ADIZ announcement, it was reported in Japan that Chinese maritime authorities had escalated the stakes again by boarding Chinese fishing vessels in the EEZ waters around the Senkaku Islands. It was confirmed by the JCG that this had happened three times since August, 2013. The ADIZ will therefore be interpreted as a signal of a Chinese intention to further implement its jurisdictional claim.

Indeed, Japanese media has been quick to explore the dangerous implications of the new ADIZs. For example, the Yomiuri labelled China’s action of declaring an ADIZ that includes airspace over islands under the administrative control of another nation to be of “an unusual nature in the international community.” The ADIZ move is seen as providing further evidence of Xi Jinping prioritising China’s “great power” ambitions, rather than steering China towards becoming a cooperative player in building a mutually beneficial East Asian regional framework. Xi’s advocacy for a “New Type of Great Power Relations” for managing future diplomacy, which excludes the interests of regional and global players other than the United States or the PRC, has also not gone unnoticed in Japan. The Japanese media has even reported that various Chinese diplomatic sources have admitted that hard line elements within the Chinese government and the PLA have settled on a strategy to challenge Japan on the Senkakus, to drive a wedge through the US-Japan alliance, and take a hard-line towards relations towards Japan in general. This strategy was apparently consolidated at the end of the recent third plenum, which saw China setting up a National Security Council, and Xi Jinping noting that China needed to directly face external and internal threats to China’s sovereign rights and national security. As such, the East China Sea ADIZ will be seen as setting the stage for a long-term exercising of military influence in the area, especially if the PRC goes on to announce a similar zone for the South China Sea. With the maiden South China Sea voyage of the Liaoning also being heavily reported in Japan, Japanese politicians and officials have quickly moved to discussing extending Japan’s own ADIZ eastwards to cover the Ogasawara islands in anticipation of future Chinese aerial activity on the back of its new ability to project aerial power.

Michal Thim at CPI similarly observes:

There is another important aspect to consider while analysing recent Chinese actions. Beijing may be motivated to take a stance in regards to its sovereignty claim and it is consistently pushing the envelope in this matter. However, it is also interested in testing the reactions of the U.S. and its allies to get a clearer picture for its actions in the future. The Taiwan Strait missile crisis in 1995/96 might have backfired and in the short term it was Beijing’s debacle but at the same time Chinese leaders tested U.S. reaction. In addition, the crisis provided critical stimulus for the development of Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) capability that nowadays represents significant challenge for any future deployment of carrier battle group near Chinese shores. More recently, during 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff with the Philippines, China has tested whether the U.S. would go beyond rhetorical support of its treaty ally when the subject of dispute is relatively insignificant elevation. Creation of ADIZ and increased number of naval and air incursions in the disputed area should be understood as part of broader strategy to change the status quo. Should the ADIZ face no strong reaction or should the extent of backlash be acceptable for Beijing, second ADIZ may come soon, this time over the South China Sea.

At the Diplomat, the really bizarre writing:

The islands, when referenced in Chinese historical documents, are generally considered to have been part of the administrative zone of Taiwan. In other words, if mainland China does gain control of the islands, it would effectively be administering part of Taiwan. Obviously, this give the dispute a deep symbolic meaning for Taiwan’s government.

The was never any administration of the Senkakus from Taiwan. That's a post-1971 lie. Where do people get this crap? -- especially since several of us have now published at The Diplomat showing that these are lies. Do they not consult their own stuff? The writer does make one good point, however:

In this context, Beijing’s ADIZ could have lasting ramification for cross-strait relations. The PRC seems not to have considered the potential backlash on Taiwan — particularly since the ADIZ roll-out occurred only days before an important visit to Taiwan by Chen Deming, the head of the mainland’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits. The timing of the announcement has marred Chen’s visit. The DPP and other critics have demanded that Ma lodge protests with Chen and even expel him from Taiwan if his response is seen as inadequate.

Beijing could easily have avoided this by holding off on the ADIZ for even a week, or even done Ma a political favor by informing him of the decision in advance. Instead, mainland officials missed an opportunity to ease the political shock in Taiwan. As a result, China’s aggressive move to solidify its claims over some uninhabited rocks might jeopardize its chances at a far larger prize — eventual unification with Taiwan.

Exactly -- the ADIZ not only screwed Korea, it also screwed Beijing's friend and ally, Ma Ying-jeou. The ROC government has announced that it will go along with the requirement of reporting its airlines movements in the ADIZ to Beijing, unlike Korea, Japan, and the US. Speaking of Korea, at The Diplomat resides a piece on the ADIZ and Korea:

The beauty of a unilateral move like an ADIZ is that the country imposing the zone gets to decide how the lines are drawn on the map. The Chinese decision to draw the ADIZ such that it was guaranteed to raise the ire of South Korea is odd. With South Korea, the PRC was fortunate enough to avoid the sorts of territorial rigmaroles it often finds itself in with Japan, Taiwan and various Southeast Asian states (over the South China Sea). South Korea and China had also found themselves converging over their common historical distaste for Japan along nationalist lines — a phenomenon abetted by the almost concomitant election of conservative Park Geun-hye in Korea and Shinzo Abe in Japan.

It’s perhaps too early to make a definitive determination about the impact the Chinese ADIZ will have on future relations between China and South Korea. South Korea’s restrained rhetorical response and China’s immediate attempts to set the record straight on Ieodo indicate that the ADIZ’s northeastern frontier, near Jeju-do, may have been an oversight on China’s part.

..........

What should give South Korea pause over the ADIZ is the possible imposition of such zones in the future by China, something Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesman Yang Yujun claimed was in the pipes: “China will establish other Air Defense Identification Zones at the right moment after necessary preparations are completed.” A future ADIZ off the Bohai Sea and into the Yellow Sea would have serious implications for South Korean security

For me the scariest article was a WaPo piece on it by Simon Denyer, which reads as if it softened something dictated by Xinhua propagandists:

It was designed as a forceful response to Japanese assertiveness. [Hahahaha - mt] But Beijing’s creation of an air defense zone may have backfired, experts said, eliciting a strong joint response from the United States and Japan.

In Chinese eyes, the standoff began in September 2012, [Why are we regurgitating Chinese propaganda? Who cares what Beijing wants outsiders to think? Don't we do our own research? - mt] when the Japanese government purchased three of the islands — known as the Senkaku islands in Japan and the Diaoyu islands in China — from a private Japanese landowner. In response, Beijing stepped up its own claims to the rocky landmasses, increasing sea patrols and pressing Japan to accept that the territory is disputed.[Reality: the Japanese purchase was driven by China's escalating pressure. - mt]

This next bit is so comical it deserves to stand alone:

Beijing’s actions appear to fit a recent pattern, experts said. Reluctant to be seen as the provocateur, China tends to respond forcefully to what it sees as provocations from others and then advance its own claims even more strongly.

A totally Beijing-centric presentation. Ugly to see this in a US newspaper... but expect more in the future: the new normal is going to be US media presentations shaped by Beijing's power.

Finally, James Fallows has a good piece over at The Atlantic:

3) Is this likely to do China any good? The puzzling nature of Chinese foreign policy, especially its generally self-defeating "soft power" aspects, is a subject too vast for our purposes right now. In brief: the very steps that, from an internal Chinese-government perspective, are intended to make it seem confident, powerful, and attractive often have exactly the opposite effect on audiences outside China.

One famous illustration followed the world financial crisis of 2008. The Chinese economy recovered much more quickly than others; the U.S. looked like a house of cards; and the Chinese military made a number of expansionist-seeming moves in the South China Sea that quickly got the attention of neighboring countries. The result of this "over-reach" episode, as it is described now even in China, was to bring Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and other countries into closer alignment with the U.S. than they had thought necessary before. By acting super-tough, the Chinese military made its real situation weaker.

This ADIZ case may become the next famous example. Whether it seems, either now or later, worthwhile from the Chinese leadership's perspective I have no idea. But at least in the short term, it appears to have alarmed the South Koreans, with whom Chinese relations had been steadily warming, plus introducing new friction into China's most important relationship, which is with the United States.

Great stuff. UPDATED: And don't miss this piece on the Chinese perspective from a Chinese PHD student in the China Policy Institute.

The Lew-Rockwell Antiwar.com types are still off in some La-la land where all evils are due to the US and China is all rainbows and unicorns, but I noticed that over at the progressive website CommonDreams writer Gwynne Dyer actually thought the ADIZ was deliberately provocative. I'm remaining optimistic that the Left will come around on China...
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Hegemonic Conflict Watch: US Responds to China's ADIZ =UPDATED=

Wow (Yahoo):

Two US B-52 bombers flew over a disputed area of the East China Sea without informing Beijing, US officials said Tuesday, challenging China's bid to create an expanded air defense zone.

The flight of the giant Stratofortress planes sent a clear signal that Washington would push back against what it considers an aggressive stance by Beijing in the region.

The move also represented a robust show of US support for Japan, which is locked in a mounting dispute with Beijing over disputed islands in the East China Sea.

The unarmed bombers took off from Guam on Monday on a scheduled flight, as part of what defense officials insisted was a routine exercise dubbed "Coral Lightning Global Power Training Sortie."

This was exactly the right move. China still nurses fantasies of splitting Japan from the US, while pursuing policies that are actually driving Tokyo closer to Washington. The time when Beijing could have wooed Tokyo passed several years ago, thanks to Beijing's belligerent attitude...

One function of this ADIZ declaration is thus to show Tokyo that Washington won't support it in the pinch. This move has precedent -- at least one motive for the Sino-Vietnamese War was for Beijing to demonstrate that the treaty between Hanoi and Moscow was simply a worthless piece of paper. There too China's ostensible motive was islands (Spratly Islands) and alleged mistreatment of ethnic Chinese minorities in Vietnam, eerie echoes of China's bogus claim to the Senkakus and its claim that Taiwan should be part of China because they are all one big happy culture.

Hence, Washington's move was exactly the right move -- giving the middle finger to Beijing, but not using something more aggressive, like a fighter sweep. Kudos to the White House and Pentagon for this move. Hopefully now with the beginning of serious negotiations with Iran, the Obama Administration can shift the US perspective away from its hopeless fixation on that sideshow of a sideshow in the Middle East to Asia, where the future is.

Good work, guys. Very happy to see this.

UPDATE: Probably be on this one all day as news flows in. The Diplomat with a great write-up which observes:

There has been some dispute among defense experts about whether China has the capability to actually enforce its conditions. Defense News quoted an unnamed U.S. defense industry source located in Asia as saying, “Let China run itself crazy trying to enforce this. I just can’t see how China will sustain the enforcement. Too much traffic goes through there. If no country recognizes it, [and] don’t respond to China’s IFF [identification friend or foe] interrogation or VID [visual identification], then this new ADIZ is meaningless.”

Notably, China’s announcement also won it the ire of South Korea, one of the few states in the region that Beijing had thus far avoided offending over sovereignty issues in the past few years. According to the Wall Street Journal, China’s new ADIZ overlaps with about 3,000 square kilometers of South Korea’s own ADIZ. It also encloses Ieodo (Suyan) Rock that South Korea administers but China also claims. Seoul and Beijing will discuss the issue an already scheduled vice defense ministerial-level strategic dialogue in the South Korean capital this week.

Way to go, Beijing! Totally unnecessarily peeving erstwhile friend. This is all about Beijing appealing to domestic audiences. Scary, because those right-wingers aren't going to be appeased until they and others are bleeding...

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Motao goes to Alishan

The Motao. Pure fun on wheels.

Swamped with work I did the only sane thing and ignored it to spend two lovely days biking over Alishan and nearby mountains. The Bike Gods rewarded my faith with prime weather. Even better, a friend who is introducing a new bike and motorcycle camera called the Motao to the market here sent me a free one to test on the trip. What fun I had! As you will see. Motao's Taiwan retailer is www.hands.com.tw -- Tailung Hands. They have 11 stores in Taiwan from K-town to Taipei. You can find them in Breeze and Sogo. Unless I tell you a pic is from the Motao, it is from my Canon Powershot S95. Click on READ ME to enjoy the ride, videos, pictures... what a great time!

China Cranks up pressure, sets events on war path

This map appeared in the Taipei Times.

I go off to Alishan for the weekend and whaddaya know... China declared a new air defense zone that includes the Senkakus, cranking up the pressure on Japan and essentially declaring that this conflict over the Senkakus will end in open war unless Japan backs down. The Taipei Times report offered some useful insights:

China’s ministry of Defense issued a statement on its Web site yesterday regarding the establishment of the zone.

The statement was accompanied by a map and a set of rules regarding the zone, which stated that all aircraft must notify Chinese authorities and are subject to emergency military measures if they do not identify themselves or do not comply with orders from Beijing.

...

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), who also sits on the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, suggested that China’s move was aimed at Japan, as China did not include Taiwan’s Pengjia Islet (彭佳嶼) in its East China Sea air defense identification zone.

Li Fung, a Hong Kong-based Chinese military expert, said that China’s move can be regarded as an effort to bolster Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the islands.

It also showed the Chinese government is preparing for military conflict with Japan over the disputed islands, Li said.

WSJ adds:

"An ADIZ isn't defined in international law. Basically, each country draws up its own and operates on that basis. Therefore, setting up the ADIZ doesn't have any legal meaning for China or affect Japan's territorial rights. However, it is unclear to what extent they will enforce it. In general the situation is getting riskier," said Narushige Michishita of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

The US has a defense treaty with Japan and has said on several occasions that the Senkakus fall under the purview of that treaty. This means that if China goes to war over the Senkakus then the US must come in on the side of China Japan! The US State Department issued a State-ment:

The United States is deeply concerned about China's announcement that they've established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone." This unilateral action constitutes an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea. Escalatory action will only increase tensions in the region and create risks of an incident.

Freedom of overflight and other internationally lawful uses of sea and airspace are essential to prosperity, stability, and security in the Pacific. We don't support efforts by any State to apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter its national airspace. The United States does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter U.S. national airspace. We urge China not to implement its threat to take action against aircraft that do not identify themselves or obey orders from Beijing.

We have urged China to exercise caution and restraint, and we are consulting with Japan and other affected parties, throughout the region. We remain steadfastly committed to our allies and partners, and hope to see a more collaborative and less confrontational future in the Pacific.

This is basically a signal of coming war. China has just reduced everyone's room for maneuver, especially if they attempt to enforce this zone.

And also consider that this is just a step. There is more cranking up of pressure coming in the future. At what point do the US and Japan had to intervene to show they mean business, and how? Do we wait for the next carefully calculated escalation? Or are the escalations meant to provoke a Japan-US response that China can plausibly claim as a pretext for war?
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Cole on the Aerotropolis in Taoyuan and Traditional Media failure in Taiwan

J Michael Cole, who is leaving the Taipei Times, writes of traditional news organizations in Taiwan and how they are utterly failing the nation and their readers:

If newspapers like the Taipei Times, which a good number of people in Washington, D.C., rely on almost exclusively for their information, were more serious about reporting news that matter, much greater effort would be made to plug the many gaps that exist in their reporting. Only then would we avoid situations where Taiwan “experts” cannot understand why a delegation led by Chen Deming (陳德銘), the new chairman of China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), plans to visit the Taoyuan Aerotropolis next week.

Had the Times and other publications like the Central News Agency been more responsible organizations, they would have reported a lot more on the build-up to the mega-project in Taoyuan, including the expedited hearings which did not meet the standard protocols set by the Executive Yuan for such projects (e.g., the number of public officials in attendance) and where self-help organizations were told that whatever the outcome of the hearings, if the government decided to demolish people’s homes for the project, they could do nothing about it.

The government wants all hearings to be completed by the end of the year, with bidding to start next year.

Responsible news outlets would also focus a lot more on the protests that are brewing over the issue, press releases by the Taiwan Rural Front and other groups, and the suicide earlier this month of a farmer who stood to be among the thousands of victims of the Aerotropolis project. They would also point out that former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮), a native of Taoyuan and former county commissioner there, has been hired as a “consultant” for the project and is now seeking foreign investment.

Of the US$15 billion-plus, 4,700-hectare mega-project, more than 3,200 hectares will involve land expropriation, affecting as many as 12,000 households and several dozen schools, which will all be destroyed if the project is allowed to proceed. [Taoyuan's own promotional news site concedes residents are worried about compensation -- MT]

Responsible news organizations would have connected the dots earlier by reporting on the growing instances of government-sanctioned land grabs, the role of land developers and investors, and the manner in which the government has sided with those against the victims. They would have placed more emphasis on those developments, and they certainly would not have buried the few articles they had on the subject in the little-read inside pages, as the Times often does.

And lastly, news outlets worth their salt would have emphasized the fact that under regulations passed last year, China can now participate in infrastructure projects and act as contractors. As CommonWealth magazine reported in late 2012, “Chinese investors are zeroing in on four sectors [of Taiwan’s economy following the new regulation] – landmark infrastructure projects, the high-tech industry, commercial real estate, and logistics and transportation.”

An epic and deadly serious rant. Taiwan Journal had a piece on the aerotropolis back in 2008 that explained what a giveaway it is going to be, and the legislation as passed is online here. There's a PDF of a presentation on it here that gives the rah-rah point of view for it.

After some outcry on the proposal to eliminate laws favoring aboriginal employment, the legislation does stipulate that 3% of employees in the aerotropolis zone must be aboriginals. There was another side to the aerotropolis' threat to national security -- its threat to bring in Chinese under the laws eliminating many labor regulations. But service businesses in the area may not hire Chinese. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how many Chinese workers are slipped in when Chinese firms get the infrastructure bids.

I'm quite curious to see what will happen when Chinese firms actually start taking business from local construction firms. Will they be smart enough to integrate local firms into their operations and take over the KMT's patronage networks? My bet is that they will act with the same arrogant indifferent bullying clumsiness they do everywhere else, and in a couple of years, local construction firms are going to be very very unhappy with the KMT for selling them out to the Chinese.
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Daily Links:

• This year is the 50th of the Cairo Declaration, which in KMT mythology is gave Taiwan to China. If you see a text begin by asserting China's claim to X based on Cairo, you're reading right-wing Chinese expansionist propaganda.
• Eslite pulls book, apparently because the Chinese Communist Party doesn't like it
• Once again Commonwealth nails it with a great piece on branding in Taiwan
• No dude, hawks are not UFOs
• Oz on the Sanwan to Nanzhuang bike trail. Miaoli is the great secret of Taiwan.
• Tie Non visits the famous cat village.
• An old dojo in Taichung

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Links: Enjoy'em

On the road to Guguan

Feeling lazy today....

• Victor Mair cites some of my favorite local expats -- Mark S, Taffy, Jason C (honorary expat) -- in a piece on how Hoklo speakers cope with their problems in representing Hoklo using characters.
• Two good pieces on the diplomatic truce. One from J Michael asking is it over? and one from James Robert Baron about flexible diplomacy.
• EATS conference wants to consume your Taiwan paper.
• Where do NTU students come from?
• Taiwan Central Bank head explains why he won't let NT dollar depreciate despite demands of business leaders
• One of the most annoying things about living out here is the level of misrepresentation of Asia in the western media. The Japanese eyeball licking craze? Not true.
• Taiwan Airpower on US bombing of sugar refinery in Chiayi in WWII
• Zain Dean arrested in Scotland, to be extradited back to Taiwan
• Stiglitz on the murderous insanity that is Dem Establishment/Republican farm policy. I'm talking about food for the next few weeks in my American Culture Class....
• OH HAHA Taipei Times:  Suspected cannibal served in French army in Afghanistan. Served?

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Blast from the Past: The wreck of President Hoover: Life 10 Jan 1938

"The President Hoover, crack Dollar liner christened by Mrs. Herbert Hoover of  Newport News in 1930, was then the biggest ship ever built in an American yard. A vessel of 615 ft. and 21,536 tons, it cost $88,000,000..." It had been accidentally bombed by Chinese bombs on Aug 30 (killed one crewman) and did some damage. On Dec 10 it ran aground on Hoishoto (Green) Island on a Kobe to Manila run with over 800 passengers and crew, all of whom got off safely. Wiki notes:

After the Battle of Shanghai had broken out in August 1937, President Hoover was diverted from Hong Kong to evacuate US nationals from Shanghai.[3] She was moored in the Yangtze River, awaiting clearance to enter the Wusong River[3] to reach the Port of Shanghai when, despite a 30-foot (9.1 m)-long[2] US flag draped on her top deck abaft the bridge[3] to identify her to aircraft as a neutral US ship, the Republic of China Air Force mistook her for the Japanese troopship Asama Maru and bombed her.[3][10]

One bomb hit Hoover's top deck, killing a crewman from the mess hall.[3] Fragments from another bomb penetrated the main saloon, wounding six crew and two passengers.[3] One of Hoover's radio officers transmitted a distress call stating that Chinese aircraft were attacking her.[3] Both an IJN destroyer and a Royal Navy cruiser came in response, but in the event only medical help was needed.[3] Different sources date the incident as 14[10] or 30[11] August. Despite her casualties Hoover sustained only minor damage, but she aborted the rescue mission to Shanghai[3] and returned to San Francisco for repairs.[2]

Chiang Kai-shek, leader of China's National Military Commission, had known Robert Dollar and was reportedly furious that his aircraft had attacked his late friend's ship.[2] He threatened to have the officer responsible executed until he found that it was his chief air force advisor Claire Lee Chennault.[2] Chiang's wife Soong May-ling had hired Chennault only two months previously, and the Generalissimo relented and instead paid the Texan a $10,000 bonus soon afterwards.[2]

Wiki also has the story of her wreck. Members of the US public gave money to put up a lighthouse on Green Island, which was erected in 1938. The Takao Club, always a great website, has a very detailed account of the wreck.
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African Take on Gambia bolt

Definitely NSFW, if you're a beetle.

An analysis from Swaziland:

Prior to the country severing ties with Taiwan, it has been gathered that some multimillion dollar Mainland Chinese companies were issued with licenses to explore Gambia's potentials of drilling oil. Some couple of millions of dollars has already been deposited into a foreign bank account, in which Jammeh and his Secretary General and Presidential Affairs Minister Momodou Sabally are the co signatories to the offshore drilling bank account. In fact, they have started messing with that money.

This one made it into the Taipei Times as well. Gambia President's statements with some recent history of offshore oil exploration there are here. A US firm was given two blocks offshore last year. Taiwan-Gambia projects will go ahead as planned.
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Daily Links:

• Klaus on beautiful film Taiwan from Above
• WaPO article on the White Shirt protests
• A lot less silly than some pieces I've read from reporters who do the government travel junket thing.
• Koreans diss our fish, Taiwan responds

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Su Beng Bio Crowdfunding Campaign: Please help!

A message from my friend Felicia Lin, Su Beng's (史明) Biographer:

+++++++++++++++++

On October 26 I launched a crowdfunding campaign to raise funds to complete the biography of Su Beng which I began working on in 2004. As Su Beng turns 95 or 96 as it would be counted in Taiwan, I have felt an increasing urgency to complete his biography.

Su Beng's life is the story of the struggle of the people of Taiwan, and, now more than ever before, I believe that telling his story will bring greater international awareness to the situation in Taiwan.

Su Beng is a nonagenarian Taiwan independence activist, former undercover Chinese Communist agent, would be assassin of Chiang Kai-shek, historian and author of the book, Taiwan’s 400 Years of History. This encyclopedic, 2000 page plus book, which took about 18 years to write, is the one of the first most comprehensive books on this topic. It has and still continues to influence generations of Taiwanese activists.

To learn more about my project to document the life of Su Beng VISIT: www.aboutsubeng.com

Here's how you can help:

1) WATCH my crowdfunding video here: http://igg.me/at/makinghistory

2) SHARE and spread the word about this and CONNECT me with an organization/business/individual who will be able to contribute to my campaign

3) MAKE a personal contribution or in-kind donation

My goal is to raise $15,000 to cover the expenses for me to spend 3 months in Taipei 1) to do the additional research needed to complete the book and 2) to produce a short documentary about the life of Su Beng.

In-kind donations are welcome! I will need to cover the cost of a plane ticket to Taiwan, a place to stay during my 3 months in Taipei. The next major expense of the project is to digitize of the video footage of Su Beng that has been shot on mini-DVD tapes.

To make an in-kind donation contact me at: subeng.biographer [at] gmail.com

PLEASE NOTE: *Making History: The Story of Su Beng crowdfunding campaign ENDS December 25, 2013*

Important links/contact information
Indiegogo.com crowdfunding campaign: http://igg.me/at/makinghistory
Website about Su Beng: www.aboutsubeng.com
YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/StoryOfSuBeng
To contact Felicia Lin directly, email her at subeng.biographer [at] gmail.com
Sincerely,
Felicia Lin
Su Beng's Biographer
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The Gambia Bolts

...and the bottom dropped out of the road.

I've been traveling in Sabah and was reminded of how wild things are down there by the sobering news of Taiwanese tourists killed on a small island off the lovely east coast. But that news was overshadowed by the big news that The Gambia has cut ties with the ROC. WSJ reports:

Taiwan said Friday that it felt "shock and regret" from the announcement, and believed Gambia's president Yahya Jammeh made the decision unilaterally without pressure from China.

"Right now it appears this was a personal decision made by Gambia's President Jammeh," said Simon Ko, deputy foreign minister, at a news conference on Friday.

Mr. Jammeh had cited "strategic national interest" as the reason he cut ties on Thursday, according to media reports from Gambia.

Beijing said it was caught unawares by Gambia's decision. "We learned the news from foreign media reports. There was no contact between China and Gambia," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei as saying.

This seems to be the idea in all the reports; China hasn't engineered this. Hard to tell, though. This will be a test of Ma's policy toward China -- will they let The Gambia drift? Or sweep it into their maw? Almost certainly the latter, as China has been busy building business and development ties with Africa while the US bombs the crap out of things there and in the Middle East.

Everyone always expresses worry that Taiwan will be cut off and fall into Beijing's maw like a ripe plum. I was wondering: Those "diplomatic allies" of the ROC "Taiwan" as the ROC and the rightful government of China. In other words they recognize a Taiwan-China connection. Once you lop off Taiwan's links to those states, aren't you in effect making an isolated but independent Taiwan? I wonder if Beijing sees those connections differently because it is more sensitive to the way they reinforce Taiwan-China connections. In which case, it might want to shrink the number, but still preserve a few. Comments?

Comment below observes:

What about the possible influence of mainland Chinese businessman on the entire saga? The ROC government and news media remained quite clueless on this issue for several hours yesterday while the SCMP had a long report already in June on how mainlanders get HK residency under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) via permanent residency in Gambia first. HK has strict quota on CIES directly from mainland,so rich mainlanders buy Gambian residencies in China for HKD 80,000 per person without even going to the Gambia. Gambian residencies account for the largest group of CIES applications (17,746 earlier this year) with only 309 Chinese actually living in Gambia. It might be less a traditional diplomatic conflict rather than network diplomacy in full swing...

Link to SCMP article. A relevant portion:

Since the beginning of the Hong Kong immigration scheme, 9,050 successful CIES entrants from the mainland have cited permanent residency in The Gambia. The figures, provided by the Immigration Department this month, are as of March 31, the latest available numbers.Gambian residencies make up nearly 60 per cent of mainland applicants and 50 per cent of all 17,746 people who have received Hong Kong visas under the scheme. [1]The Gambia ranks No 1 among residency countries cited by CIES applicants. Guinea-Bissau falls second with 2,931 approved applications, Canada third with 1,207, and the Philippines fourth with 559.“An individual permanent residency in The Gambia costs 80,000 yuan [HK$101,240], a family application costs 100,000 yuan,” said Chen Yunjun, a Shenzhen-based agent with Qiaoshen Emigration Consulting. “One hundred per cent get approved.”“We started [selling] Gambian permanent residencies in Shenzhen in 2011,” she said. “Altogether, we have handled dozens so far.”Huaien Business Consulting, in Kunming, Yunnan province, offers similar prices for a Gambian permanent residency.“It’s 80,000 yuan per person," said a sales agent who gave only her last name as Yu."We can also get you a passport from Guinea-Bissau, we don’t do Gambian passports,” she said. “That would be 250,000 yuan.”Hong Kong agencies are more expensive. Beng Seng Immigration Consultants charges US$25,000 for an individual application, according to its website. A family application, including one underage child, costs US$32,000. Every additional child costs US$1,000 more.Dozens of visa agencies advertise Gambian residency as a way of getting into Hong Kong through CIES.

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The more things change....

A friend of mine put this image of a tin of Formosa Oolong from John Andrews of Boston, probably from the 1880s, on Facebook (more info). It "commemorates" the Boston Tea Party. As I was searching for information on this brand, I stumbled across this droll Consular Report on the Amoy Tea Trade:

THE TEA TRADE OF AMOY.

I can report much more activity in the tea market at this port than prevailed in the trade one year ago. Prices in New York are much more satisfactory.

Up to the 24th ultimo 1,314,286 pounds more of Formosa oolongs had been exported from Amoy to the United States than at the same date last year, and 162,294 pounds less of Amoy oolongs. Of new teas of the present season 8,120,821 pounds have been exported to the United States to date of September 24.

It is estimated that the season's crop of Amoy oolongs will be 40,000 half-chests less than that of last year, and it is ciurently anticipated that the present year's supply of Formosa oolongs will be from 15,000 to 20,000 half-chests short of the previous year's crop.

The quality of the Formosa crop is claimed to be a full average, while the grade of Amoy oolongs this year is said to be rather more vile than that of previous years, when it was quite bad enough.

Nothing can be said in commendation of Amoy oolong at any time. But little of it is exported elsewhere than to the United States, where, I surmise, it is largely mixed with teas of better quality, thereby toning the one down and the other up in quality, and so a tea that is too miserably bad to venture into the markets of the world is pushed into the United States and imposed upon consumers there in order to satisfy the greed of exporters here and of importers in the United States.

The statute against the importatioin of bad and adulterated teas into the United States is quite sufficient, and if carefully enforced at the ports of entry at home would justify the exclusion of a very considerable percentage of the Amoy oolongs which are annually imported into the United States and imposed upon American consumers. — Amoy, October 7

WM. S. CROWELL
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What's not in the news

Ferret Badger roadkill.

When human groups divide and become fragmented, during a period of malaise and conflicts, they may come to a point where they are reconciled again at the expense of a victim. Observers nowadays realize without difficulty, unless they belong to the persecuting group, that this victim is not really responsible for what he or she is accused of doing. The accusing group, however, views the victim as guilty, by virtue of a contagion similar to what we find in scapegoat rituals. The members of this group accuse their "scapegoat" with great fervor and sincerity. More often than not some incident, whether fantastic or trivial, has triggered a wave of opinion against this victim, a mild version of mimetic snowballing and the victim mechanism.

HEADLINE NEWS!!!! Taiwan gov't tipped off by Spain in 2009 could be something wrong with the oil! Or adulterated oil company executive appears in court and is unrepentant! Defense Ministry to seek compensation for suspect oils!

The oil scandal is so useful. The oil companies are scapegoated for all the food sins of Taiwanese firms, the meat packed with antibiotics, the fraudulent organic food, the pears from Dongshih sold as Lishan pears, the rice noodles that aren't rice...

...and when was the last time you read an article on the wiretapping issue? Gone from the news. Never mind the stagnant incomes, the capital gains tax, the land tax... modern Establishment media is so useful, if it didn't exist, it would have to be invented.
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Daily Links:

• Econ growth forecast downgraded to 2.31%
• Taiwan seeking observer status at climate meeting
• MOFA changes mind, is more generous with aid to the Philippines
• Editorial in TT explains how Ma plans to change KMT charter to hang on to power as Chairman in event KMT does badly in 2014 elections. Remember when they changed the charter so he could run for President? 

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SOAS Events and Facebook pages

Betel nut farms in eastern Taichung.

Just to let my readers know, SOAS has some great Taiwan events planned for this month. Don't miss 'em if you are in the UK.

http://www.soas.ac.uk/taiwanstudies/events/

They also have been assimilated to the Facebook Borg a Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/SOASCentreofTaiwanStudies

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ECFA Double Strike is Total Success

Guinea pigs at a miniature recreational farm in Taichung near Shihgang.

A friend of mine remarks on the email on the latest Taiwan trade figures, putting numbers on what all of us said would happen with ECFA:

You have to combine that info with the latest figures for China trade to have the full picture: China's October exports rose 5.6% and its imports rose 7.6%. In Taiwan, all exports were down 1.5% and exports to China decreased 5.5%. So Chinese imports increase strongly when Taiwan exports to China decrease...

What's going on?

Of course many factors here, but it also means that ECFA is working exactly as predicted by real economists: Taiwan exports are declining as Taishang have relocated their whole food-chain in China, enabling them to feed Taiwan-, foreign-, and Chinese-owned companies end-products from within China rather than importing them from Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Taiwan imports from China keep on increasing, passing for the first time ever imports from Japan in the past two months...

Lower exports, higher imports with China: the ECFA double-strike is a total success. Expect the same and more if the service investment agreement is passed by the LY.

China trade figures: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/09/business/international/china-reports-strong-rise-in-exports.html?ref=business
Full Taiwan trade stat: http://www.mof.gov.tw/engweb/ct.asp?xItem=74160&ctNode=686&mp=2
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Desert Chang, ROC flag, Chinese...

Gorgeous cool, breezy, sunny day on the Taichung 95 and small farm roads in the hills above Hsinshe. 60 kms in total, but over 1300 meters of climbing. Brutal, but rewarding.

Lately a number of observers have been commenting on how the ROC flag has been hollowed out by Taiwanese identification and has now become a symbol, not of ROC-ness, but of Taiwanese-ness. There is hardly a better example of this than the Affair of the Flag involving alternative singer Desert Chang and Chinese in the audience at a concert she gave in the UK. WSJ reports:

According to Ms. Chang’s account of the clash, which she posted on her Facebook page, during the concert she held up the flag, which a Taiwanese student had presented to her. When she told the audience that the red, white and blue flag represented her home, she was immediately cut off by the audience, with one fan screaming “no politics today” and “we just want to have fun” in English.

The ROC represents not China to modern Taiwanese, but Taiwan, and home.
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Daily Links:

• Brookings: Taiwan and the TPP
• Workers in UK find five inch huntsman spider in shipment from Taiwan, freak out.
• Taiwanese cooking oil adulterated on massive scale. In Xiamen it is being taken off shelves. This will impact views of Taiwan's food abroad. Way to go, folks.
• Pro-Green Taiwan Thinktank poll finds that Ma's approval is low. Ma is having KMT charter changed to preserve him in Chairman position even if the KMT is beaten in the upcoming election next year. It really looks like he is going to attempt to run things even after he is gone. It will be interesting to watch what happens to him in the KMT when he is no longer Chairman or President.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!