H.R.2810 and Port visits

Fengyuan

The specific language of the "port visit" requirement is here. Note that it only requires DoD to report on the feasibility, and as the person who sent it around observed, doesn't impose a time limit. A baby step, but still a step.

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Here is the relevant text of Section 1270E of H.R.2810 - National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018.

SEC. 1270E. REPORT ON NAVAL PORT OF CALL EXCHANGES BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND TAIWAN.
(a) Report required.—Not later than September 1, 2018, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the appropriate committees of Congress a report on the following:
(1) An assessment of the feasibility and advisability regarding ports of call by the United States Navy at ports on the island of Taiwan.
(2) An assessment of the feasibility and advisability of the United States to receiving ports of call by the Republic of China navy in Hawaii, Guam, and other appropriate locations.
(b) Form.—The report required by subsection (a) shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.
(c) Appropriate committees of Congress defined.—In this section, the term “appropriate committees of Congress” means—
(1) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate; and
(2) the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

....and another one bites the dust: Panama

Because sometimes one spout just isn't enough...

The news washed over Taiwan in the morning: we're losing Panama. Oh noes! Now we only have 20 unimportant countries recognizing the ROC, down all the way from 21. Reports the BBC (from their Latin American office, so slightly more balanced than their E Asian reporters):

China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province. A few countries maintain ties with Taipei instead of Beijing, and Panama is the latest to switch sides.

In December last year, the African island nation of Sao Tome and Principe made a similar move. Now only 20 countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

In recent years China has intensified its economic investment into the Central American country - home of the economically vital Panama Canal.

The media will be delighted, no doubt, since it can report ZOMG CHINA IS CLOSING IN and TENSIONZ and TSAI IZ DOOOMMMMEEEDDD and lay it on real thick.

....my favorite of today's many comments was this Twitter comment from Financial Times' Ben Bland:

Panama just dropped Taiwan for China. @FT warned in January that Beijing was eyeing Taiwan's Central American allies

"FT warned in Jan?" Then they were months late (of course). Panama has been rumored to be on the brink for a year, as this AFP piece in the Hong Kong FP from June of last year notes (one of many). This switch was probably inevitable, the world being what it is.

My man Donovan speculated that the switch was about China dangling the prospect of making Panama irrelevant via the fantasy of building a canal through Nicaragua. Reports indicate that China is eyeing investment in the energy and port sectors. China is the third largest user of the canal, according to several reports.

MIA? Uncle Sam. Thought maybe the Yankee Menace might be interested in China expanding its power and influence in Panama, but the current Administration appears to be everything Putin thought it would be.

On Facebook, someone reiterated the Taiwanese position: "We're now 1/21 steps closer to independence". Outsiders see diplomatic links as important, but Taiwan, as the News Lens piece observes, depends on its rich informal and unofficial links to get things done. China has seldom threatened those. It's very unlikely that China will attempt to swallow all of Taiwan's allies, because that would leave Taiwan independent. There will be domestic criticism from the opposition party, and some small psychological effect. Since there is nothing Tsai could have done, and everyone knows it, life will go on as usual. As the China Post notes, many observe that Taiwan can get along without any "allies" so long as it has support of powerful nations.

More importantly, it is not Taiwan that is suffering, but the ROC. One of the props of its existence are the "diplomatic allies". Today it has become that much smaller...

Ironically, today in the Diplomat one of those silly articles came out arguing that Beijing needs to change its path in order to win Taiwanese hearts and minds. Then many complained that such actions as grabbing Panama don't win hearts and minds in Taiwan. The campaign of "niceness" isn't aimed at Taiwan, folks. It is aimed at domestic audiences in China, who do not want war over Taiwan. Beijing needs to be able to convince them it did everything in its power to get Taiwan peacefully. There is only one way Beijing could win hearts and minds here, and that is to give up its claim to Taiwan. Taiwan scolded China for oppressing and threatening it...

DON'T MISS: But if you wish to go placidly amid all the predictable squalling that is occupying the media, by all means feast your eyes on this wonderful collection of 55 black and white images of Taiwan taken in 1896.

ADDED: Ben Bland correctly observes in comments below...

On the question of Taiwan's informal bilateral relationships, China constantly tries to stymie and stifle them as well. Foreign officials receive stern protests from the local Chinese embassy every time they meet representatives from the Taiwan economic and trade offices in their countries. Many will not meet the Taiwanese officials in their offices, only in hotels etc. And the Chinese embassies also threaten commercial entities that work with the Taiwanese foreign ministry officials in too open a fashion. Even supposedly straightforward tasks like getting landing slots for Taiwanese airlines in third countries can be painfully difficult because of Chinese interference.

What I meant really was that so far while China has harassed Taiwan overseas, it hasn't attempted to shut down unofficial relations outright on an us or them basis like it has formal relations.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Australia bows to the Dragon Throne

A view of Dongshih.

What happened at a meeting devoted to stopping the trade in blood diamonds? Focus Taiwan reports:

Participants at the Kimberley Process meeting hosted by Julie Bishop described "disgusting" and "extraordinary" scenes involving Chinese delegates, who "shouted over the welcome to country ceremony and forced the suspension of proceedings," The Sydney Morning Herald reported Wednesday.

The Taiwanese delegation was later ejected from the intergovernmental meeting at the request of the Chinese delegates who objected to their attendance, the report said.

The Chinese delegation noisily disrupted the official welcome ceremony and forced the suspension of at least one session on Monday, the report said.

J Michael Cole explained:

The four-day Kimberley Process intersessional meeting is chaired by Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop. This is the first time Australia hosts the intergovernmental meeting. Taiwan joined the Kimberley Process, which seeks to end the global trade in “blood,” or conflict, diamonds, as an observer in 2007.

Apparently later on African delegations with links to China also joined the "chorus".
Danielle Cave pointed out at the Lowy Interpreter:

Official rhetoric was completely disconnected from the facts on the ground and gave no hint that an international incident was unfolding. The Australian Government does not have a history of giving into heavy-handed tactics. But it, along with other countries, arguably self-censors to cater for how we think China will react to certain policies (for example, Australia's stalled negotiations for a free trade agreement with Taiwan). Despite their appalling behaviour, the Chinese delegation was rewarded with a diplomatic win – they achieved their intended outcome. Will the Australian Government self-censor next time they face a similar dilemma involving China? Will other governments, universities and NGOs self-censor to avoid such an embarrassing public spat?

Apparently the incident, in which Bishop's speech was repeatedly interrupted by the Chinese delegation shouting because Taiwan's representatives were in attendance, was actually broken in the news by a Zimbabwean paper. Only later did Australian media reports follow. Cave wonders what this means for the media in Australia.

It is deeply concerning. The Chinese should have been removed instantly. Not only has Australia, a democratic and US-allied state, shown it is spineless, but it has suggested that this tactic -- which cost China nothing to deploy -- can be effectively used at future meetings in other nations. The fact that it can use its African allies as mercenaries to support this tactic is even more disturbing. In the future I expect China may simply send them first into the breach, and remain outside the proceedings...

Foreign Policy reports on the event here.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

China Buys Sao Tome, saves Taiwan taxpayers millions

Look! A free meme for you!

The big news is that Sao Tome switched from the ROC to the PRC today. Reuters reports. This is another symbolic act with no concrete costs, which will generate media hysteria but probably benefits Taiwan. China cannot knock out too many allies, because it needs the ROC to exist and support its territorial claims, as well as maintain that Taiwan is part of China and someday deliver Taiwan to China. One of the props of the ROC are its "diplomatic allies", countries which recognize it, and not the PRC, as China. Gaining allies is always paid for by the sweat of Taiwanese taxpayers, just one of the many colonial taxes Taiwanese continue to pay to the ROC. The Taiwan government said, quite rightly:

In its diplomatic relations the ROC has consistently maintained the principles of integrity and mutual benefit, contributing to its allies’ development to the full extent of its abilities. The government of São Tomé and Príncipe, however, with excessive financial difficulties, and demands beyond those the ROC could meet, has ignored 20 years of friendly diplomatic relations, playing both sides of the Taiwan Strait while holding out for the highest bidder. The ROC regrets the São Tomé and Príncipe government’s abrupt and unfriendly decision, and condemns this action.

The media will have plenty to write about. Thanks, China, for keep Taiwan in the media churn so we can get more people to read about it and recognize its existence.

...but the big thing for me is this piece from Keith Richburg, who has been reporting out here for years, going against the mainstream "ZOMG CHINA MIGHT..." policies that have governed US relations with China...

Loath as I am to agree with Trump about almost anything, on this one, he may have a point. Since the start of the U.S.-China detente with President Richard Nixon's groundbreaking visit in 1972, America has been content to allow Beijing to set the parameters, even the lexicon, of the relationship, with the U.S. often getting little or nothing in return. It may be time to start treating China like any other country -- and that may mean talking tough when needed, and ignoring the fabled thin-skinned sensibilities of Beijing's Communist rulers.

Whoa. Happy to see this from a longtime mainstream media reporter. Years late, but nice to see all the same.
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Daily Links:

• Sadly, in this Diplomat article on immigration reform in Taiwan there are a couple of errors, heart in right place though. Has this person lived in Taiwan for any length of time?
• Taiwanese American to govern California in 2018? It could happen.
• Dan Blumenthal: Beijing is fraying the one China framework
• R Hsiao in the National Interest -- Taiwan no longer a bipartisan issue?
• Leisure farming shaping up to be a boom business
• What Taiwan hopes Trump will do for it.
• Will Trump ramp up tensions with China?
• Taiwan: Asia's orphan? from Steve Goldstein, Taiwan expert, at NBR. Awesome.
• Jeff Kingston's excellent piece on Protest in Asian Democracies cites the amazing Ian Rowen

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

More Taiwanese Scam Suspects Shipped to China

Went up to Longfeng Waterfall at the end of the Nantou 22 on Sunday. Not recommended. The scenery is nice, but getting to the 22 requires taking either the 3 or the 14. 

Busy as heck here with the semester ending this week, but another batch of alleged scammers deported to China...

Cambodia yesterday said it would deport 21 Taiwanese nationals arrested on fraud charges to China, ignoring attempts by Taiwanese officials to have them returned instead to Taiwan.

Cambodian authorities arrested 13 of the Taiwanese along with 14 Chinese on Monday last week.

Another eight Taiwanese suspects were detained on Saturday, Cambodia’s General Department of Immigration Director of Inspection and Procedure Major General Uk Heisela said.

“We have decided to deport them to China because they all are Chinese. The Chinese side has asked us to wait while they work out whether to send a plane or buy tickets for them,” Heisela told reporters yesterday.

He said Cambodia refused to draw a distinction between Chinese and Taiwanese, as the country adheres to a “one China” policy.

Note that the "Taiwanese = Chinese" is a position held by Cambodia. The article contains the Chinese statement:

“China requested Cambodia to send all the suspects to the mainland as most of the victims in this case are in China, and they obstructed our personnel from visiting the Taiwanese suspects,” the foreign ministry said.

This has been the position of China throughout -- the position that adheres to established international practice and law -- that the crimes were committed against Chinese in China, and thus, the criminals should be sent to there. China HAS NOT been saying loudly that the Taiwanese are really Chinese and thus Beijing has jurisdiction over them. Note that China has asked for deportation, not extradition. In the Kenya case, the Kenya government was able to deport the Taiwanese fraud suspects to China because they had entered the country illegally and thus could be returned to their last port of embarkation. Cambodia under the 1994 Immigration Law can simply deport anyone who enters the country under false pretenses, and dollars to donuts, these suspects not only did that, but also entered from Guangzhou, as the ones in Kenya did.

Next time guys, enter from Tahiti or Maldives, so you'll be deported someplace nice... and don't commit crime in China while based in a country that has become more or less a protectorate of Beijing.

J Michael Cole, who has been churning out articles at the News Lens, observed:

According to Cambodian immigration officials, 13 Taiwanese and 14 Chinese nationals were arrested for alleged Internet fraud on June 13 in a raid at their villa in Phnom Penh. Soon thereafter, Taiwanese representatives contacted their Cambodian counterparts to ensure its nationals were sent back to Taiwan. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports that the Taiwanese officials were unable to meet with the suspects.

There is simply no reason to have these men shipped back to Taiwan, and the possibility of being shipped off to do real time in a Chinese prison might actually function as a deterrent to people entering this "profession." MOFA should expend its resources on other things.

MOFA's lack of leverage highlights the short-sightedness of the Ma Administration's China-focused foreign policy, which -- probably deliberately -- neglected SE Asian nations. Fortunately the Tsai Administration has a strong push to reverse that neglect.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Deportations from Kenya to China: you're asking the wrong question

Longtime and well known expat Donovan Smith, who is part of the Compass Magazine team and is also the ICRT central Taiwan news man, enjoys the 149A below Caoling. 

LOL. Concerns were raised among Taiwan observers when eight Taiwanese acquitted of fraud in a trial in Kenya were handed over to Chinese authorities this week. In 2011 Philippines sent a group of fraudsters off to China. It took months of negotiation to get them back.

Most of the discussion has focused on the sovereignty issue, and warning that this is ZOMG A BIG DEAL with REPERCUSSIONS for the incoming Administration. But note how the outline of the two cases, Philippines and Kenya, are the same: a mixed group of Chinese and Taiwanese accused of fraud, and Beijing gets the Taiwanese deported back to China.

Taiwanese are regularly involved in crimes abroad, but deportations back to China are rare. In fact, one never hears that China has asked for Taiwanese criminals to be returned to it rather than Taiwan. People asking about the effect this kidnapping on Taiwan's place in the world or sovereignty or cross-strait relations are asking the wrong question, probably because they are permanently trapped in the media matrix where everything Taiwan is related to China by refracting it through the lens of cross-strait politics, and no other meanings are possible.

I love Kenya but honesty compels me to admit that Kenya is a major transit state for money laundering, drugs, and other illicit activities. It is the "single easiest place in the world" to carry out illicit financial activities, in fact. I suspect that those Taiwanese were deported back to China because they knew something about illicit activities of China in Kenya, and Beijing wanted to have a little chat with them before they were handed back to Taiwanese authorities.

UPDATE: Another 37 forced on plane to China, bringing total to 45. If this is a sovereignty thing aimed at Tsai Ing-wen or Ma Ying-jeou, why do they need them all? Completeness is only necessary if you want to make a clean sweep of something. Like if you want to make sure of how much a group of people knows about something...  Also it's fan-feces time, as some news media reporting that at least one abductee has a US passport.
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Daily Links:

• CNN Travel piece on Mazu festival. Everything wrong: Doesn't mention the gangster links of the modern Matsu procession. Doesn't mention its political function. There is no mountainous or rugged terrain involved. The Chaotien Temple in Beigang is nowhere near Taichung city, but is about 90 kms south of it. LOL. So many competent travel writers on this island, why not choose one of them?
• BBC produces an entire article on the passport stickers from the China government point of view, never mentions why Taiwanese might want them.
• Export decline to continue
• Stratfor on 17C Dutch-China similarity. Writer is clueless about both, but there are some tables on Chinese investments overseas.
• The spy case; Taiwan-born US naval officer accused of spying. Typical set up with honey pot and everything.
• KMT making push in south.
• Taiwan's super gun ready to fight China. Yeah, it will fire about three rounds before it is killed.
• Satirical Facebook Hualien independence page is darling of PRC netizens and media
• Taiwan's air defense problems among the most difficult in the world.
• Popularity of Taipei Mayor Ko falling...
• Biopharma in Taiwan

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Tax evasion: A man, a plan, Panama!

The Jesus helmet, for when Jesus placards on your scooter aren't enough.

Lots of comments on the Panama Papers and Taiwan, but the key one is here:

When news of the leaks broke on Sunday, some local media initially linked several prominent Taiwanese to the latest tranche of leaked documents. The names included President-elect’s brother, Tsai Ying-yang, and the heads of several companies such as Ting Hsin International Group, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

Chen, however, said such information was exposed by ICIJ in 2013.

While the ICIJ on its website notes that there are“legitimate uses for offshore companies, foundations and trusts,” the Panama Papers leak points to widespread illegal or unethical operation of offshore accounts and companies to evade taxes. The latest release of data has sparked tax evasion investigations into possible tax havens, causing the Prime Minister of Iceland to resign.

There are indeed legitimate uses. Many people have offshore companies for a wide variety of reasons. Taiwan's laws, it was explained to me by a corporate law office employee the other day, are hugely restrictive. For example, let's suppose a group of investors wants to form a company. Under Taiwan law, they have to have face to face meetings once a month (this has been changed to virtual meetings in recent years). They can't conduct things via email or snail mail. In many jurisdictions shareholders and founders regularly and normally make contracts among themselves about how the company is going to be conducted, defining who might run the firm and what percentage of profits or shares they might get. Such contracts are iffy under Taiwan law. And so on. In order to run companies the way they want, it's perfectly normal for people to offshore their firms. So let's wait and see what comes out...

...though as he noted, the legit activity tends to take place in the British Virgin Islands and similar. Panama is for illicit stuff since it isn't party to many international agreements on laundering, etc.

FOARP passes along a theory that many have been theorizing since this news broke -- the PRC hasn't made Panama switch recognition because so many corrupt officials have money there:

Interestingly, the Panamanian government even sought to switch recognition to the PRC as recently as 2009, only to be rebuffed by the PRC government out of an apparent desire not to breach the diplomatic truce between the two sides of the Taiwan strait. Funnily enough, despite the end of the "truce" with the recent establishment of diplomatic relations between the Gambia and the PRC after their 2013 breach with Taipei, there has not been any sign, yet, of movement in the Panamanian case despite the long-expressed desire to switch recognition.

The suspiciously-minded might suspect that the PRC leadership are purposefully delaying the switch as the "Panama Route" is rumoured to have proved useful for them and their families. However, there is not nearly enough evidence at the moment to draw this conclusion - but if Panama's diplomatic switch from Taipei to Beijing is significantly delayed, you might be forgiven for thinking that their motive in doing so may have something to do with keeping the "Panama Route" open.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

China does the Gambia Gambit

The Abbot's house at the old Shinto Temple in Tunghsiao.

First, from the Nelson Report, the Washington Insider Report:

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THE TAIWAN FACTOR...In recent years, there has been something of a "working understanding" that so long as Taipei didn't make too much trouble about joining international institutions requiring national state status, Beijing would not resume its campaign to take-away the couple of dozen foreign countries which still extend official, formal diplomatic recognition to the Republic of China.

So if for various reasons this implicit deal collapses, but especially to try and force incoming DPP president Tsai Ing-wen to officially embrace the "1992 Consensus", that would signal heightened tensions across the Strait this year, most folks agree.

Why would that be in anyone's interest, we innocently ask? Our question is prompted by Loyal Reader Robert Blohm, who caught this in today's NY Times, then adds perspective:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/19/world/asia/china-gambia-taiwan-diplomatic-relations.html?emc=eta1
Chris,

The Gambia first recognized Taiwan when it represented China at the UN, then switched to Mainland China when the UN switched. In 1995 a coup installed the current president who switched to Taiwan. When Taiwan refused to increase aid to The Gambia, it broke off relations with Taiwan in 2013 (and also left the British Commonwealth) but the Mainland didn't step into the breach out of deference to the friendly Taiwan KMT government of Ma.

Last December The Gambia declared itself the newest Islamic state. Following Feb. 1st installation in the legislature of Taiwan's newly elected DPP government, prior to Ms. Tsai's inauguration on May 20th, and immediately on closure of the Twin Meetings of the Mainland legislature, the Mainland has now elected to oblige The Gambia and re-establish diplomatic relations, reducing to 22 the number of countries recognizing Taiwan.

Is this is the Mainland's first action signaling disapproval of Taiwan's new government?

BOB MANNING, Atlantic Council:

If this proxy diplomatic battle is renewed, no way Taiwans can win that one. Taipei should focus on TPP, trade deals and UN special organizations like WHO, and try to cut deal w/ Beijing for that as their "international space".

Xi would be smart to agree, it would strengthen Tsai's hand politically in Taiwan, and make it easier for her to do what he wants...accept '92 consensus. But that all makes way too much sense...

Your Editor: good "trade" suggestions, so we've been asking around, and are assured that the re-installed DPP will indeed focus on what needs to be done to get Taiwan "into the game" re TPP.

Harken back to last July's Brookings' conference where AIT chairman Ray Burghardt spoke about a shift under the Obama Administration which has transformed the US-Taiwan relationship so it's no longer an appendage of the US-China relationship...

An involved observer comments:

"Ray's 'shift' might well be in play if the DPP can get their ducks in line re pork and beef, plus the protectionist/regulation/SOE etc issues that need to be addressed to get Taiwan at least up to the KORUS level. If so, and if China uses Malaysia, for example, to block Taiwan's accession to the TPP, might the US be willing to move on TIFA and, maybe even an FTA with Taiwan? That's a long jump, but..."

Bearing in mind that DAS/State Thornton has called Taiwan a "vital partner", observers predict a set of more proactive moves ahead as Tsai gets into office this May. For now, there's another Obama initiative which should provide Taiwan with reassurance, a recently signed "MOU" with the State Department on something called the "Global Cooperative Training Framework."

An informed source:

"This is anavenue to explore greater US-Taiwan activity that gives options for joint action on a variety of issues, e.g. women's empowerment, humanitarian relief and disaster assistance,etc. Former Rep. Marjorie Margolies (Chelsea Clinton's mother-in-law and who was a victim of voting for the Clinton 1993 budget deal) was recently in Taiwan hoping to establish Taiwan as an Asia hub for her Women's Campaign Initiative. State was very supportive of her visit and hopes to see the DPP government provide some serious attention to this.

Also Kurt Tong, PDAS at State, two weeks ago sat publicly at a GW event with Bruce Linghu, Dep MOFA, at a program discussing this GCTF. It certainly appears that the Ma Administration has been "slow walking" implementation. You can bet a Tsai Administration will be fast walking these opportunities!

So you should expect to see more in this area - moving Taiwan into position with those organizations that don't require "statehood" but give Taiwan a place at the table where it can be a "responsible stakeholder." Beijing might not like this, but since "statehood" is not in play..."

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At Thinking-Taiwan, a well thought out and measured article by Timothy Rich observes....

A knee-jerk reaction by Taiwan would be to try to find a replacement for the loss of The Gambia, similar to a Major League Baseball team trying to replace their former star player with a flashy free agent. However, such a strategy does little for Taiwan. The Gambia after all was not a major trading partner, served no security interests, and remains one of Africa’s more brutal authoritarian regimes. President Yaya Jammeh’s rule has included restrictions on expression, life sentences for those of the LGBT community, and President Jammeh’s own claim to have an herbal cure for AIDS.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of course does not wish to be viewed as weak on cross-strait relations, emphasizing their commitment to strengthening ties with their remaining twenty-two diplomatic allies. It is also easy to view The Gambia within the lens of Taiwan’s historic January elections and assume broader Chinese strategic intent to restart a diplomatic competition that favors Beijing, rather than cautiously view this as an isolated case in which Taiwan tangibly has lost little. Unofficial relations with stable and powerful democracies provide far more in regards to Taiwan’s national interests, while myopically focusing on the potential return of diplomatic battles serves only to constrain Taiwan’s options.

Reuters has been gleefully presenting this as a "shot across the bow" of Tsai Ing-wen, which is how everyone is seeing it. Interestingly, it happened on Ma's watch -- why didn't the PRC simply wait two months and have Gambia flip the day Tsai is sworn in?

In any case, Shannon Tiezzi observes at The Diplomat that in 2013 at least five of the ROC's allies approached the PRC about switching, but Beijing turned them down, just to be nice to Ma.

The existence of the ROC depends on four things: its existence on Taiwan, its control of islands off China's coast, its territorial claims, and its diplomatic allies. Beijing will likely pick off a few because it can, and to put pressure on Tsai. But if Beijing scoops them all up, then the ROC will effectively equal Taiwan, which Beijing does not want, since that encourages Taiwan independence. For that reason, some independence advocates argue that Beijing should be encouraged to do that. Moreover, Beijing needs the ROC alive and well, because it is counting on the ROC to annex Taiwan to China without a war. That is also why it has never taken back Kinmen and Matsu, though it easily could.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's truly important links are with Japan and the US, and neither of those are ROC-driven. So relax, and brace for comforting your Taiwan friends when more countries switch. There isn't a thing anyone here can do about it, and in the long run, it might even be a good thing.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

African Take on Gambia bolt

Definitely NSFW, if you're a beetle.

An analysis from Swaziland:

Prior to the country severing ties with Taiwan, it has been gathered that some multimillion dollar Mainland Chinese companies were issued with licenses to explore Gambia's potentials of drilling oil. Some couple of millions of dollars has already been deposited into a foreign bank account, in which Jammeh and his Secretary General and Presidential Affairs Minister Momodou Sabally are the co signatories to the offshore drilling bank account. In fact, they have started messing with that money.

This one made it into the Taipei Times as well. Gambia President's statements with some recent history of offshore oil exploration there are here. A US firm was given two blocks offshore last year. Taiwan-Gambia projects will go ahead as planned.
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Daily Links:

• Klaus on beautiful film Taiwan from Above
• WaPO article on the White Shirt protests
• A lot less silly than some pieces I've read from reporters who do the government travel junket thing.
• Koreans diss our fish, Taiwan responds

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The Gambia Bolts

...and the bottom dropped out of the road.

I've been traveling in Sabah and was reminded of how wild things are down there by the sobering news of Taiwanese tourists killed on a small island off the lovely east coast. But that news was overshadowed by the big news that The Gambia has cut ties with the ROC. WSJ reports:

Taiwan said Friday that it felt "shock and regret" from the announcement, and believed Gambia's president Yahya Jammeh made the decision unilaterally without pressure from China.

"Right now it appears this was a personal decision made by Gambia's President Jammeh," said Simon Ko, deputy foreign minister, at a news conference on Friday.

Mr. Jammeh had cited "strategic national interest" as the reason he cut ties on Thursday, according to media reports from Gambia.

Beijing said it was caught unawares by Gambia's decision. "We learned the news from foreign media reports. There was no contact between China and Gambia," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei as saying.

This seems to be the idea in all the reports; China hasn't engineered this. Hard to tell, though. This will be a test of Ma's policy toward China -- will they let The Gambia drift? Or sweep it into their maw? Almost certainly the latter, as China has been busy building business and development ties with Africa while the US bombs the crap out of things there and in the Middle East.

Everyone always expresses worry that Taiwan will be cut off and fall into Beijing's maw like a ripe plum. I was wondering: Those "diplomatic allies" of the ROC "Taiwan" as the ROC and the rightful government of China. In other words they recognize a Taiwan-China connection. Once you lop off Taiwan's links to those states, aren't you in effect making an isolated but independent Taiwan? I wonder if Beijing sees those connections differently because it is more sensitive to the way they reinforce Taiwan-China connections. In which case, it might want to shrink the number, but still preserve a few. Comments?

Comment below observes:

What about the possible influence of mainland Chinese businessman on the entire saga? The ROC government and news media remained quite clueless on this issue for several hours yesterday while the SCMP had a long report already in June on how mainlanders get HK residency under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) via permanent residency in Gambia first. HK has strict quota on CIES directly from mainland,so rich mainlanders buy Gambian residencies in China for HKD 80,000 per person without even going to the Gambia. Gambian residencies account for the largest group of CIES applications (17,746 earlier this year) with only 309 Chinese actually living in Gambia. It might be less a traditional diplomatic conflict rather than network diplomacy in full swing...

Link to SCMP article. A relevant portion:

Since the beginning of the Hong Kong immigration scheme, 9,050 successful CIES entrants from the mainland have cited permanent residency in The Gambia. The figures, provided by the Immigration Department this month, are as of March 31, the latest available numbers.Gambian residencies make up nearly 60 per cent of mainland applicants and 50 per cent of all 17,746 people who have received Hong Kong visas under the scheme. [1]The Gambia ranks No 1 among residency countries cited by CIES applicants. Guinea-Bissau falls second with 2,931 approved applications, Canada third with 1,207, and the Philippines fourth with 559.“An individual permanent residency in The Gambia costs 80,000 yuan [HK$101,240], a family application costs 100,000 yuan,” said Chen Yunjun, a Shenzhen-based agent with Qiaoshen Emigration Consulting. “One hundred per cent get approved.”“We started [selling] Gambian permanent residencies in Shenzhen in 2011,” she said. “Altogether, we have handled dozens so far.”Huaien Business Consulting, in Kunming, Yunnan province, offers similar prices for a Gambian permanent residency.“It’s 80,000 yuan per person," said a sales agent who gave only her last name as Yu."We can also get you a passport from Guinea-Bissau, we don’t do Gambian passports,” she said. “That would be 250,000 yuan.”Hong Kong agencies are more expensive. Beng Seng Immigration Consultants charges US$25,000 for an individual application, according to its website. A family application, including one underage child, costs US$32,000. Every additional child costs US$1,000 more.Dozens of visa agencies advertise Gambian residency as a way of getting into Hong Kong through CIES.

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Taiwan-Phils Fishing Pact? Probably not....

One of the great joys of biking in Taiwan is meeting all the friendly people.

With Taipei and Manila agreeing to forego the use of force in settling disputes at sea at a recent meeting, a pact which enormously favors Taipei since Philippines' boats rarely poach in Taiwan waters, but the reverse, alas, is all too common, the possibility of an actual fishing pact between the two sides is being raised. Discussions (a second preparatory meeting) are scheduled for July...

Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Department of East Asian and Pacific Affairs director-general Benjamin Ho, in an interview with Taipei Times, said his government wants well-defined coastal areas where fishermen from both countries can operate freely.

"Our goal is to sign a fishery agreement with the Philippines ... We will continue to negotiate with the Philippines [on that issue]," the Times, a major newspaper in China and Taiwan, quoted Ho as saying.

Ho added that the next meeting will likely be held in July involving both countries' fishery, foreign affairs and maritime security officials.

The report added that the second preparatory meeting to take place in Taipei will "pave the way for fishery talks between the two countries."

Over at the East Asia Forum, a commentator from the Philippines has a nifty piece discussing the possibility of a fishing agreement between Manila and Taipei. The last of Taipei's demands in the shooting case, the call for a fisheries agreement, was the most significant, he says. The writer observes:

Yet a fishery agreement at this point in time could be disadvantageous for the Philippines. For one, Taiwan has a more developed commercial fishing industry than the Philippines. In fact, at present, the operation of Taiwanese fishing vessels off Batanes and Cagayan in northern Philippines has been a perennial complaint of many local Filipinos, notably artisanal fishermen since many poachers were caught well within coastal or municipal waters. Thus, any joint fishing cooperation in the overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones of both countries will only increase Taiwan’s advantages. For some, a fisheries agreement would essentially amount to legalising poaching under the façade of cooperation.

There are also practical impediments to an agreement to cooperate to curb illegal fishing. Foreign poaching is rampant in northern Philippine waters, and losses are tremendous, amounting to some P75–P150 million ($US1.8–3.5 million) every year. But because of its inadequate maritime law enforcement capabilities, Manila was only able to apprehend 108 foreign nationals for illegal fishing from 2006–2012. The Philippines’ limited enforcement capabilities would also make it difficult for it to monitor or supervise the conduct of joint fishing activities.

He also observes that the "demanding, haughty (if not outright bullying)" way in which the Ma Administration demanded the agreements has been offputting for Filipinos. Indeed, fishing associations in the Philippines are already demanding that Manila put a stop to any negotiations:

It described a potential deal as being like handing the nation's marine wealth on a silver platter to Taiwan at the expense of the sovereignty and territorial rights of the Philippines' 100 million people.

"Taiwan wants unlimited fishing access in the Philippines and that is the real score and the Manila government seems like ready to give in to the request," the group said in the statement.

See also The Manila Standard. It seems likely that in the end negotiations will stall over domestic opposition in Philippines, and the situation will return to status quo ante, with Taiwanese fisherman poaching and Philippines being able to do little and less about it.

A Taiwan-centric government would make maintenance of relations with Philippines a key priority. Let's hope that the public bullying that Taipei inflicted on Manila during the fracas over the shooting of the fisherman does not appear in the private talks over the fisheries pact.
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Phils/Taiwan Cringe: ROC reps pass this around

Here are the two pages of a brochure the TECRO (ROC representative) offices in the US are passing around. Look carefully at the map on page 1, it includes the Senkakus, showing how these territorial claims are linked in ROC (Chinese expansionist) propaganda and shows the "overlapping" EEZs of Philippines and Taiwan. Its use of international law is selective, to say the least: as a friend pointed out, there's no territorial waters around the Japanese islands and no EEZ extending into the Taiwan Strait. There's a bigger view of it on my Flickr account here.
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Phils/Taiwan Take 7: Linkfest and Pocket Analysis edition

A road warrior weaves through rush hour traffic on a narrow Taipei street. Lovin' the new Sigma 17-70mm lens.

The Taiwan/Phils mess, some recent stuff....

• Ritual slaughter: David Lin, Minister of Foreign Affairs, "grilled" by the legislature. Lawmakers -- especially the DPP's emptyheaded support of the gov't -- helped feed Taipei's botched response. Hinting that Lin, who probably had no hand in the real decision making, should resign, is unconscionable. 
• Manila, Taipei, will reach consensus after the probe. Which will naturally be what Taipei wants it to be, right?
• Fisheries Director Sha says the Taiwan-Japan pact can be a model for a Taiwan-Phils pact. That's nice, but if the gov't really cared about Taiwan's fisherman, it would have resolved this issue quietly to score brownie points with Manila so it can maybe negotiate a fisheries treaty (unrealistic anyway), but that is impossible because....
• ...as Ben Goren says, so much going on here is driven by Han Chauvinism. Taipei's historical cold shoulder to Manila while sucking up to higher status advanced powers is just one manifestation of this. 
• An awful analysis of the Taiwan-Phils mess. Quick, if I say the phrase "Taiwanese nationalism", what do you think of?  Sun Yat-sen and China, right?
• The Taipei Times editorializes that the media must remain "balanced." Would love to see some soul searching there about the media's uncritical acceptance of the government's jingoistic line and more importantly, in fostering public ignorance about the ROC, Taiwan, territorial claims, and the behavior of Taiwanese fisherman overseas. 
• Of the articles that have appeared on this brouhaha, this one is my favorite, priceless comedy: Batan Islands not part of Philippines. Why did the Taipei Times kill trees to print this? Who is the real writer?
• Phils national roundball team not invited to Jones Cup.
• A Phils perspective of the problem of marine resources in this issue, which -- wonder of wonders! -- has hardly been forthrightly and directly mentioned in the Taiwan English papers. "Caught red-handed and obviously poaching inside Philippine waters, Taiwan is obscuring the issue that led to the unfortunate death of its fisherman."
• Finally, the Phils media reports that investigators from Taiwan have seen the video of the killing. I hope this means it will be out in the next couple of days.
• Oh and.... Phils demands that China withdraw ships from Second Thomas Shoal

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Asian Correspondent: Taiwan Botches It and ON VACATION

A remarkably perspicacious piece from a singular correspondent. If I do say so myself....

Also, the awesome political scientist Ketty Chen has a new blog. Enjoy.

Further enjoy this well-intentioned piece in the Washington Post taking the Administration to task for its Taiwan-blindness.

I'm off biking in the mountains far away from the world this weekend. So your comments will not be posted until Monday. My apologies.
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Phils/Taiwan Mess Round Up: Links-n-stuff

Bike gear on display

No time to write.... odds and ends from around the web world. Hopefully I'll have more time to post tomorrow.

The VDR data from the boats has now been released. Liberty Times and ETToday

Decide for yourself: whose side makes more sense?
The story of the Taiwan fisherman
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-05-20/taiwan-fishing-crew-hid-to-escape-hail-of-philippine-bullets

The story of the Phils Coast Guard
http://www.mb.com.ph/article.php?aid=12367

ROC and Phils gov'ts agree on joint probe

J Michael in The Diplomat identifies where Taiwan went wrong and could possibly have saved the situation.

Finally, this is from a Taiwanese law professor at the U of Warwick. Posted with his permission, it was sent to a list and then distributed.

+++++++++++++++++

Notes on the Taiwan-Philippines Dispute by Ming-Sung Kuo (adaption
of two posts in response to an online chat)

Legally speaking, the issue is whether the use of force is necessary for the Philippines Coast Guard to enforce its rights under Article 73, paragraph 1 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Preventing suspect poachers from 'fleeing' the jurisdiction of the coastal state concerned, including the disabling of suspect vessels by the use of arms, is a legitimate means to that end. Whether the said Taiwanese vessel attempted to flee, which would be a crucial factor in determining on the legality (ie necessity in this case) of the Philippines Coast Guard's use of force, cannot be answered until all legal procedures, including a thorough investigation, are completed.

Premature reactions from Taiwan, official and civil, in the wake of this unfortunate incident have simply made matters more complicated. It is the principle of equal sovereignty, not sincerity, that is the cardinal rule of international relations. In terms of the post-incident investigation, which concerns the exercise of sovereign rights, I would say that it is the law enforcement authorities of the Philippines, including the prosecutors, not their Taiwanese counterpart, that has the primary jurisdiction. Taiwan’s unilateral dispatch of an investigative team to the Philippines without the latter’s consent (Note: notice is not consent) is unacceptable to any sovereign state.

Having said that, I do not mean that Taiwan cannot demand a role in the investigation. Nevertheless, demanding an official apology before the investigation was even launched was simply out of step with diplomatic protocols. No sovereign state would agree to such a demand in a legal dispute like this. In the immediate wake of the incident, Taiwan could have put pressure (which should be proportionate too) on the Government of the Philippines to expedite the investigation for sure but should not have demanded an official apology before the investigation was completed. What makes matters more complicated is that it's unlikely that a sovereign state like the Philippines (or even the US) would make a formal government-to-government apology to Taiwan, which has no statehood under international law. The 'extra mile' that the Government of the Philippines claimed it had gone probably referred to President Aquino's 'deep regret and apology' to the Lin family and the Taiwanese people when the investigation was still ongoing.

Sadly, denied statehood way too long, Taiwan doesn't understand how sovereign states interact with each other in the postwar international legal system. Did the incident result from territorial disputes between Taiwan and the Philippines? No. Is there any territorial dispute over Batanes between Taiwan and the Philippines? No. If so, what is the point of sending armed forces near the territorial waters of the Philippines? To take an undisputed territory of the Philippines like Batanes away from the Philippines would be a blatant violation of Article 2 of the UN Charter. Put bluntly, it is an aggressive war. Or, conducting war games is just a way to put pressure on the Philippines. Doesn't this evoke the dated gunboat diplomacy in the imperial age? I don't think this is a wise way to win public opinions in the international society.

In my view, the way that the Government of the Philippines responded to Taiwan's demands didn't suggest insincerity, although it did not make Taiwanese feel good either, which is what Taiwanese mean by 誠意. Unfortunately 'feel good' is not what international society is concerned about. Perhaps this is the root cause of Taiwan's frustration amidst this incident. I do agree that We the Taiwanese People have to fight on for the unfulfilled sovereignty. Yet, we should pick a good fight. Unfortunately this incident is not and the way it has been dealt with is unhelpful.
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Phils/Taiwan Mess, Take 5: Troublemaker, not Peacemaker edition

The small, upscale farmers market in front of the Splendor Hotel in downtown Taichung.

"We want to be a responsible stakeholder in the world, meaning that we should be a peacemaker, not a troublemaker." Ma Ying-jeou, April, 2008

Yes, all over East Asia stupidity meters are exploding. The madness has gone mainstream, with the big media slowly weighing in with reports that Something is Happening Out Here and it is important, although of course not nearly as important as the latest adjustments to Kim Kardashian's tits.

One of the sharpest observers of Taiwan affairs I know put the Ma government's policy in perspective: "Maintaining good relations with the Philippines is really a core interest of Taiwan." But of course we're seeing the exact opposite. Several normally reticent and thoughtful people I talk to have opined that it is hard to avoid thinking that Ma's policy is to push the island closer to China by distancing it from nations which ought to be its allies. Once again, only China is benefiting from this spat. It's probably not a coincidence that Ma has been irritating relations with two of Taiwan's US-backed allies, Phils and Japan.

Taiwan has to be a respectable member of the global village. Dignity, autonomy, pragmatism and flexibility should be Taiwan's guiding principles when developing foreign relations. As a world citizen, the Republic of China will accept its responsibilities in promoting free trade, nonproliferation, anti-global warming measures, counter-terrorism, humanitarian aid, and other global commons. Taiwan must play a greater role in regional cooperation. By strengthening economic relations with its major trading partners, Taiwan can better integrate itself in East Asia and contribute more to the region's peace and prosperity. -- Inaugural address, May 2008.

This commentary, The Thugs of Taiwan, in the Manila Standard was making the rounds of the Taiwan discussion groups this week.....

The circumstances surrounding the death of the Taiwanese fisherman, Hung Shih Chen, seemed lost on the people of Taiwan. The fishing boat Guang Ta Shin was caught poaching in Philippine waters. Despite warning shots from the Philippine side, the Taiwanese ship tried to ram the Philippine Coast Guard patrol boat which fired shots in self-defense.

This is not the first time Taiwanese fishermen have been caught poaching in our waters. But like recidivists released through the intercession of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, they return to commit the same offense.

It is a sad commentary that the Philippine government is groveling before Taiwan in the face of economic and labor sanctions. What the government should do is to find an alternative for job opportunities at home. The Philippines, after all, has been getting rave reviews from international investment ratings groups like Fitch and Standard and Poor’s. Government must trickle down the upside in the Philippine economy to its own people instead of deploying them overseas as slave labor.

The Phils side simply has the better story -- the Taiwan side's silliness is thoroughly demonstrated in this video making the rounds on Facebook....

...whose story is simplistic in the extreme, lacking any serious discussion of the incident. Meanwhile the Phils side tells a story involving poachers that has a long and totally sympathetic history.

That video above does have one interesting remark. At one point it notes the "location" of the incident, which -- what a coincidence -- puts it 5 miles inside Taiwan's claimed area.

Similarly, Taipei is not helping itself in my mind with ...mistaken... claims, claims that the PCG deliberately murdered the crew member. In Manila, at a press conference, Global Post reported:

Chen Wen-chi, head of the Taiwan team investigating the May 9 incident, said most of the bullets had hit the fishing boat's cockpit where its crew hid.

"By combining the... evidence, it clearly shows that the Philippine law enforcers were intentionally shooting the Guang Ta Hsin 28 crew members, which indicates their intent of murder," Chen told a news conference in Manila.

The claim that the Phils sailors were shooting at the cockpit in order to deliberately kill the crew is needlessly incendiary, making conciliation difficult, and worse, appears to be false based on easily accessible evidence. Take a moment and look carefully at the bullet trajectories deduced by the ROC government itself. They show that, just as the PCG claims, it shot at the bow and at the engine [stern] compartment [engine is usually more toward the center, I just found out]. Note also that in the cross section, the bullets to the stern are almost all below the deck. The one that killed the fisherman appears to be a stray. After making this baseless accusation, the Taiwanese team went home in a huff complaining Manila was insincere and its attitude was capricious and dishonest. LOL. With that attitude, it is no wonder Manila is not letting the investigative team from Taiwan in on the investigation.  This murder claim is coming down from the top; President Ma is also trumpeting a shrill blast of cold blooded murder as well.

More seriously, this willingness to ...be mistaken... causes me to question Chen Wen-chi's claim that the boat was in Taiwan's claimed zone rather than Phils territorial waters as Manila says it was.

"Taiwan is no longer a troublemaker but a peacemaker." Ma Ying-jeou, Dec, 2008

The Taipei Times ran an interview with a fisherman who has had much trouble over the years in the waters around the Philippines.

"When these navy sailors and officers came aboard our boat, they would loot almost everything we had, from raincoats and videotapes to food, tissues and other materials," Chang said.

"If we were lucky, we were allowed to leave and go home, otherwise they would plant evidence against us and confiscate our boat. They would strip the boat’s engine and all the usable instruments. Then they would demand that we pay a heavy fine," he added.

Chang recalled elderly fishermen advising them to keep about NT$500,000 in cash on board, so if their boat was detained by Philippine seamen, giving them the cash usually could ensure the crew’s safety and the boat’s release.

The fisherman said he'd been having trouble since the early 1990s. Of course, remember that to Manila, many of these fisherman are poachers.

“Taiwan wants to be a peacemaker in this part of the world, and to shed the once troublemaker image in the international community,” Ma said. July, 2008

The excellent Philip Bowring in SCMP scolded the Ma Administration for its reaction..... and correctly identifies the racism and contempt for the too-brown Filipinos that is coloring the reaction here in Taiwan:

For sure, the Philippine coastguard was guilty of the trigger-happy behaviour so common in a country which inherited its gun culture from the US and whose armed services are not known for their discipline. But the reaction by the government in Taipei, with economic and other sanctions, is out of all proportion given that this unfortunate event was clearly the result of local misjudgment rather than the state policy of the sort which sends Chinese warships well within the Philippines' exclusive economic zones, not to mention several incidents when Chinese vessels have opened fire on Vietnamese fishing boats and killed people.

For the Han chauvinists, an apology from the president of the Philippines is not enough. The Filipinos must grovel, be reminded that they, like Malays generally, are the serfs of the region. It fits well with the Hong Kong government's arrogant categorising of the country as in the same danger league as Syria because of the unnecessary loss of life in the bus hijacking incident.

The action of the Filipino coastguard was out of proportion, even assuming the fishing vessel was in Philippine waters and resisting arrest. But Taiwan's large, well-equipped fishing fleet is known almost worldwide for its contempt for others' fishing rights and the attempts to limit fishing to preserve species.

Bowring put his finger on one of the major obstacles here: so often in Han culture, winning must encompass not merely attainment of objectives but also humiliation of the opponent. Bowring's review of the issues is excellent and should be read in its entirety. The Economist also had a surprisingly good piece on the issue, from the PRC angle.

Finally, can't leave without mentioning this piece in the rabidly pro-Beijing WantWant China Times, which says the death of this fisherman could be a turning point....

Both Taiwan and the Philippines have long been allies of the United States. But the outcry in Taiwan over the killing could well push the country toward China, with Beijing only too happy to back Taiwan up.

It won't, but it shows the hopeful blindness of so many in the pro-Beijing crowd, always waiting for that incident that will at last make the Taiwanese realize their true destiny is with Beijing. Forever to be disappointed....

Taipei needs to walk things back, accept some kind of apology, compensate the widow quietly, and placate Manila. All this because if Taiwanese fishermen really need access to those waters, then the government should be moving to ensure that there is no long-term anger in in Philippines over this incident. Hopefully the adults in Taipei will stand up and be counted soon.....

PS: Latest TVBS poll from May 16 has Ma's approval still at 14% and his disapproval scores actually rising, to 70%. (Thanks, FM).

Allow me to take a few minutes to share with you the relations between the two countries. If you take a flight from Laoag, Ilocos Norte to Kaohsiung, Taiwan, it would take only 38 minutes, whereas a trip from Laoag to Manila would take 45 minutes. There is even a saying that goes: “When a cock crows in the most northern parts of Luzon, the people of southern Taiwan are likewise awakened.” It is also interesting to know that the people from Batanes and those from Orchid Island speak the same language. In addition, more than 50 percent of the typhoons that hit Taiwan are exported from the Philippines. From this, it is quite clear that Taiwan and the Philippines are indispensable to each other due to their exceptional geographical proximity. Oct, 2010.

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Phils/Taiwan Mess Roundup 4: No animal has lower IQ than a nationalist mob screaming for blood

Looking back at his life, it seemed to him that he had been struggling all the time to dam a flood, which, whenever he had checked it, had broken through at a new place, setting him his work to do again. It was the flood of Force Majeur.

The image above is the kind of bullshit that is all over Facebook and the bulletin boards this week, a depressing cycle of stupidity and ignorance morally legitimated by nationalist posturing. The Taiwan media is awful. Most Taiwanese have no idea how their fisherman behave overseas or about any of the politics of the issue. They couldn't tell an EEZ from a hole in the ground. The government simply yanks their nationalist chains and off they go, even petitioning the White House in the best petitioning-the-emperor style in which Taiwanese conduct their foreign affairs. Stories are running around the net of Filipinos refused service (a hoax), and even a beating or two.

There are bullet holes in the front of the boat in that image. This suggests that the boat was head on toward the shooter when those shots were fired. What does that tell you about the Phils story their boat was about to be rammed? All wrong, according to pics provided by Taiwan government. See update below.

The government, while condemning Philippines as a bunch of irrational and backward savages...

Premier Jiang pointed out yesterday that Philippine institutions and methodologies differed greatly from ours. 

...Piously called upon the public to show great forbearance toward Pinoys in Taiwan. AP reported that Phils fears for its workers in Taiwan and advised them to eat indoors.

Bloomberg identified the right angle with a story on how this is really sublimated frustration with the incompetence and weakness of the Ma Administration, directed outward, as well as with Taiwan's weak and ambiguous place in the world....

The 60-year-old blamed Ma Ying-jeou, whose approval rating is 14 percent, for an economy that grew at one of the slowest rates in Asia last year, sparking January protests that helped trigger the resignation of Premier Sean Chen. When a Philippine patrol boat crew killed a Taiwanese fisherman a week ago, Liu and others found an outlet for their fear of being bypassed in Asia’s recovery.

“We’ve been frustrated for so long,” Liu said, adding Ma should be even tougher on the Philippines. “We’re so full of anger, so disappointed and dissatisfied with our government.”

Ma is seizing the moment to press President Benigno Aquino for a formal apology as Taiwan grocers pull Philippine goods from stores and travel agencies cancel trips, an approach that risks denting efforts to boost trade ties in Asia. His reaction may say more about Taiwan’s feeling of weakness in a region of emerging powers that don’t officially recognize its government.

Clever of the KMT to harness frustration at the President and Taiwan's international position and redirect at Manila. Just think, people can forget for a moment that wages are at late 1990s levels, that income is stagnating, that housing prices in Taipei and elsewhere are ridiculous, that income equality is getting worse, that the rich are largely untaxed, that the President is a failure in most areas of policy (unless you're rich) etc etc etc. Just need some smaller nation to bully and the national blood pressure will fall.....

...and the DPP has fallen in with this policy! They should be arguing that the apology should be accepted, that things should be resolved quietly instead of loudly (best for the fishermen!), and constantly pointing out how the KMT's policy of isolating Taiwan is backfiring here. The DPP should be pointing out that only China is benefiting from this spat (a hidden motive of the Administration?). And also how Ma is pissing off the US. This is a golden moment for the DPP to take the high road. Argh.

Meanwhile the Premier warned that the boycotts were there to stay.

After the announcement of eleven retaliatory measures against the Philippines, Premier Jiang Yi-huah (江宜樺) sternly declared during yesterday’s Cabinet meeting that the ROC government would wage a prolonged boycott against the Philippines.

Premier Jiang pointed out yesterday that Philippine institutions and methodologies differed greatly from ours. He went on to say that the recent diplomatic row over the fatal shooting incident reflected the difficulties that the two sides had been experiencing in bilateral negotiations over the past several decades, adding that the ROC government’s recent decision to adopt a tougher attitude would mark a decisive turning point in the mode of interactions between Taiwan and the Philippines.

Finally, in the TT Paul Lin nails point after point, noting as many of have that the big winner is China:

The affair has revealed the sovereignty and human rights crises that Taiwan has found itself in with Ma at the helm and, unless things improve soon, these crises will only deepen. Since Taiwan’s sovereignty status problems are leading to human rights violations, the nation needs to reach out to the international community — in particular the US, which is “returning to Asia” — if it wants to turn things around. The US’ return to the region should not be only in a military sense, it also needs to be in terms of promoting universal human rights. This situation is more than just a standoff between two countries: It is a standoff between two opposing sets of values. However, since Ma took office and announced his “diplomatic truce” policy, Taiwan has had to keep silent in the international community.

Thanks to commenter RC on the first post on this for the link to this blog which analyzes the mess. It has an account of the story that rings true. I haven't checked it yet. But one point he makes is that the fishing boats were able to meet up with Taiwan CGA boats to escort them. Do the math. This means they had to have been chased for some period of time, enough to time for the CGA boats to come out to meet them. Which supports the Phils story of a long chase.....

I'm going to read The Once and Future King again. Are humans always doomed to behave like idiots? Is it forever going to be the case that a little dose of nationalism is going to induce amnesia about the incompetence of the government and the media?

UPDATE: Maddog flipped me the Taiwan government information. Bullet holes in the front are exit holes.

The bow:
http://www.moj.gov.tw/public/Attachment/35151627514.pdf

The stern:
http://www.moj.gov.tw/public/Attachment/351516262043.pdf

The cabin:
http://www.moj.gov.tw/public/Attachment/351516251843.pdf

Port (stern section):
http://www.moj.gov.tw/public/Attachment/351516233327.pdf

Port (bow section):
http://www.moj.gov.tw/public/Attachment/351516221042.pdf

Deduced bullet trajectories (diagram):
http://www.moj.gov.tw/public/Attachment/351516203472.pdf

… all found via this page:
http://www.moj.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=305771&ctNode=27518

I'm certainly not saying you should trust this government's version of the events, but do look at those images. The holes near the bow — note that there are only two — are marked as "exit" holes.

and this comment:

Evan
"Stories are running around the net of Filipinos refused service (a hoax)"

Why do you think the stories of Filipinos being refused service are a hoax? We've heard multiple stories from our local Filipino worker community here in Nanzih District, Kaohshiung. And there are newspaper reports of signs being put up at establishments in Changhua.

It actually looks more to me like there's an informal movement on Facebook to discredit the stories by repeating the "where's the evidence" line.

Evan, there was one particular tale of a Filipino who had waited an hour until some kind Taiwanese woman saved him. Hoax, apparently. Thanks for the pointers. Have images of the signs in Changhua?
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Daily Links:

• Hegemonic warfare watch: Chinese general says Okinawa belongs to China. 
• History: British WWII bombing of Formosa, part 3. This blog is fantastic. 
• ETRC rounds up a few stats on Taiwan's sluggish recovery.
• Surfing Southeast Taiwan
• Confucius Institutes: Uni in Sydney kow-tows to China, blocks Dalai Lama visit.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Rounding up the Phils/Taiwan mess: Take 3 =UPDATED=

A spider awaits prey in the early morn in a field near my house.

Well, by now I'm sure you know that the Ma Administration rejected the Philippines apology as "lacking in sincerity" (yes, well Mr. President, that's a common problem with apologies extracted at gunpoint). Sanctions have now been imposed. The Taipei Times listed....

The eight measures proposed yesterday morning by the government after a national security meeting, are issuing a travel warning that discourages Taiwanese from traveling to the Philippines, the suspension of high-level meetings at the World Health Assembly, the suspension of economic exchanges, the suspension of cooperation on agriculture and fisheries, the suspension of cooperation on technology, the suspension of negotiations on air space rights, the suspension of the visa-free program for Philippine nationals and that Taiwan would hold military exercises in disputed waters.

The first wave of sanctions — the suspension of the hiring of Philippine workers, recalling Taiwan’s representative to the Philippines and sending the Philippine representative to Taiwan back to Manila — also took effect yesterday after the Philippine government failed to meet the Ma administration’s demands by the president’s deadline.

These are truly over the top. For example, there's no travel threat to Taiwanese in the Philippines. Meanwhile the Navy and the Coast Guard held exercises today in a show of force. Oz Soapbox has a detailed review of the whole apology mess with a bonus observation -- he thinks China is dictating the Philippines' response (I do not agree).

The sanctions will continue until (KMT news organ):

The Premier stressed that the 11 retaliatory measures would remain in effect until the Philippine government formally fulfilled the ROC’s four stern demands in a positive and concrete manner, i.e., the Philippine government must formally apologize, punish the culprit (s) and indemnify the family of the deceased and the owners of the fishing vessel for property damages, as well as begin fishery agreement negotiations as soon as possible. The Premier disclosed that the government was currently assessing whether or not to adopt stronger measures in a third wave of sanctions.

Me Tarzan! (thumps chest).

Lots of commenting and observations. Ben over at Letters from Taiwan notes how neatly Manila has used the One China policy, which Ma supports, to avoid talking to Taipei. Ma is actually playing into Beijing's hands....

More LOLs today as permanent Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) obviously didn’t get the memo from David Lin over at MOFA, that Beijing’s One China policy means a) China is not cooperating with Taiwan on the spat with the Philippines and b) is actively blocking attempts by Taiwan and the Philippines to sign a fishing agreement. Wang, instead, is pissed off that Philippines President Aquino has cited the One China principle as why the highest levels of his government cannot comment directly or speak to Taiwan on the issue of the shooting incident (or “blame Beijing because they don’t want us to talk to you Government to Government as equal bilateral international state actors”):

First, although I disagree with his acceptance of the toxic One China policy, Aquino is exactly correct in what he says. No amount of indignant exclamations to the contrary will change that fact. Perhaps Ma ‘The Constitutionalist’ Ying-jeou now understands what Chen felt like when he was similarly rebuffed and belittled in the international community. No wonder the KMT is up in arms given that they used to haul Chen across the coals for every slight against Taiwan’s international standing as evidence of his provocative ideological stance on simply stating that de facto independent Taiwan should be treated with some respect as a nation state. This is deeply deeply embarrassing for them. Furthermore, it belies the utter failure of the Ma’s diplomatic truce and mutual non-denial chimeras. Dear Wang, the Philippines can treat you that way and they are treating you that way and if you have a problem with it perhaps you should call the Presidential office to enquire how your Party’s President’s One China policy is not delivering any meaningful growth in Taiwan’s international presence or soft or hard power.

One should also note that Ma promised to be a peacemaker, not a troublemaker, when he took office years ago. Yet here he is cranking up temperatures with Manila for no reason other than to pander to the local electorate.

Of course Ma may also be nudging the island toward China by making it appear it has no friends but Beijing. I've commented many times on how Ma's longterm policy with the US and Manila and other potential friends is one of keeping things irritated, to isolate Taiwan and help tip it into Beijing's hands by creating doubt and resignation among Taiwan's population. My man Ben also posted a useful piece from Stratfor on how Taiwan's South China Sea policies and other policies in the area play into Beijing's hands. The relationship between the One China policy and this mess is so obvious that the Taiwan government was forced to publish a statement denying it.

Another possibility: note that one of the four demands of Taipei is the opening of fishery negotiations with Manila. Looks like they want to use the fisherman's death as moral leverage to gain this concession. But of course as long as Manila adheres to Beijing's version of the One China policy, negotiations might be a problem.

Finally, a commenter on another forum observed that Ma might well be trying to imitate Beijing's bullying of Manila over the Scarborough Shoal.

I'm also wondering if Ma would be more conciliatory if Filipinos weren't so brown-skinned.

And with all this deployment of the Navy and shuttling military and Coast Guard hither and yon, anyone hearing calls for increased military spending? LOL.

The US, as noted in the State Department briefing I posted below this, is not taking a side. I hope AIT has people in there telling Ma to calm down. Reps Steve Chabot, longtime Taiwan supporter, and Eni  Faleomavaega, who frequently takes Beijing's positions, both fired off a press release calling on Manila to apologize. Hmmm.... could it have something to do with the tuna canneries in Faleomavaega's district of American Samoa, whose longline tuna fisheries are operated by Taiwanese (and Koreans).

Speaking of which, the DPP is frothing at the mouth in its attempt to move to the right of the KMT on this issue. If only the party had shown some statesmanship, hewed to the center, and called for cooler heads until after the investigation was over. Lamenting this failure, Ben once again put it well...

Now here they are rightly pointing out that the Once China policy belittles Taiwanese sovereignty but refusing an apology that might defuse the situation.  It doesn’t get much more uncoordinated and Keystone Cops.  It’s almost as if there’s an election coming up.

Meanwhile, for some strange reason Manila is not rolling over for Taipei. A Philippines paper carried a Xinhua report that the government there has refused to let Taipei into the investigation of what happened in the incident. The government probably isn't much concerned because, as a Filipino news site observed:

The hiring freeze imposed by Taiwan against overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in the aftermath of the killing of fisherman Hung Shih-cheng in disputed waters should have no significant impact on the Philippine economy, a top government official and an economist both said Thursday.

“There are only around 2,500 Filipinos deployed monthly [to Taiwan],” Labor Secretary Rosalinda Baldoz told GMA News Online in a phone interview on Thursday when asked to comment on a Taiwanese media report.

She said that imposing other sanctions, such as sending the OFWs back home, would do more harm to Taiwan's economy than the Philippines'.

Baldoz estimated that there are around 85,000 OFWs working in Taiwan, a mere 0.0085 percent of the estimated 10 million Filipino workers around the world.

Of the 85,000, some 75 percent work in the manufacturing industry. The rest work in the personal service sector or in the fishing industry as fishermen.

Pulling out Filipino workers could make an impact on Taiwan's economy, especially the manufacturing industry, where they dominate the specialized work force, said Baldoz. There are Filipinos who have set up manufacturing and production companies there, she added.

“I don't think this [the job freeze] will be very significant economically,” agreed University of Asia and the Pacific senior economist Victor Abola, citing Taiwan's contribution to remittance and foreign direct investments (FDI).

“Investments or trade could be delayed, but that's just it. This is not something we will lose sleep about,” the economist added.

Aquino has been winning points among his own voters for his handling of foreign affairs, according to some reports I have read. There seems to be little incentive for Manila to kow-tow.

UPDATE: Forbes makes same point. Filipinos work in high tech where they are prized for, among others, their English skills. Also, this morning a friend and university prof told me the financial aid for his Phils grad students has been canceled. *sigh*

Finally, speaking of tensions, the drip-drip-drip against Okinawa continues. Global Times of China says that China should support Okinawan independence. Looking forward to that moment not far from now when Beijing starts diddling with Okinawan visas.

REFS: Interesting paper on military oversight of the Taiwanese fishing industry in the martial law era.
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