A Stunned Nation Wakes Up in Alternate Universe

Is everyone wearing a goatee? Did the South win the Civil War? Is the Republic of New Virginia at hand? Have ginger-addicted aliens invaded the earth? *Stunned*

Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC, 台塑) and Nan Ya Plastics Corp (南亞塑膠) yesterday said an order from the Yunlin County Government last week to close six petrochemical plants in the county after a series of fires would lead to heavy financial losses.

Nan Ya said in a filing to the Taiwan Stock Exchange that closing five of its plants would generate losses of NT$8.4 million (US$291,400) per day, while FPC said it would suffer losses of NT$26 million per day.

The remarks came after FPC yesterday sent representatives to the county government, after it ordered the shutdown from June 1 over safety concerns.

FPC called on the county government to postpone the shutdown, saying not all of the plants had safety issues.

The firms sought a compromise or leniency with the county government, saying that the suspension of so many plants at the same time could deal a heavy blow to the petrochemical sector.

However, the county government said that postponing the shutdown was not possible because public safety was more important than economic development.

The Yunlin county executive is Su Chih-fen, a DPPer who was pursued in one of the nasty "corruption" cases aimed at DPP politicians that flowered after Ma Ying-jeou assumed the presidency.

Major shock. The Ma government's decision to terminate the Kuokuang petrochemical monster in the Dachen wetlands, just north of the complex at Mailiao that the decisions this week were aimed at, seemed to have ended the possibility that the petrochemical industry would become an election issue. But now a local government run by a DPP politician appears to have raised the issue again.

It will be interesting to whether and how the central government decides to intervene in this case. There is a widespread perception that most of the workers at the plant are imported foreign laborers, so fears of the job impact may not be great.

This move may be popular in Yunlin. If you Google the term "Yunlin County Stabilization Fund" you will reach this Yunlin County website with a series of complaints:

Formosa Plastic earns trillions of NT dollars of gross sale and contribute about NT$ 45 billion of tax to the Central Government every year, but its promises it has made in the beginning, nurse school, hospital, senior citizen village, new city project, bounced or halted one after another. Its non-stop industrial accidents over the past ten years since its operation only strengthens the County Government’s determination to demand Formosa Plastic Group must live up to the promises it has made long ago.

According to the County Government, the environment evaluation of 1999 for the 6-NCP mentioned about the impact on fishery, and a fishery stabilization fund was planned to help the fishermen. However, the dominating agency at the Central Government did not go any further. When an adjustment of consumer price index was added to the equation in 2000, a Yunlin County fishery stabilization fund was planned: NT$ 1,233,513,329 exactly. But nothing had ever happened. It went only as far as a plan for a fishery development fund in the conclusion of the 25th meeting of the 6-NCP environment impact evaluation board in 2006.

It may be that the financially strapped Yunlin County government is sick of subsidizing the Mailiao Complex and watching the taxes disappear into the central government maw while the companies contribute nothing to the local economy, and is taking action.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The Japanese Era Granary in Shihgang

Today I rode by the Japanese era granary in Shihgang so I thought I'd stop in and grab a few pics of this minor historical landmark. Above is the rail bridge, now a bike trail, between Houli and Fengyuan.

The granary is located right off Route 3 in Shihgang, a stone's throw from Shihgang elementary school. There is a large new 7-11 right on the corner. It is also easy to find from the Dongfeng bike trail (there's a sign for the 7-11 on the trail).

The granary.

A plaque outside is mostly covered up, which is probably good since the English is of indifferent quality.

If you have an unquenchable thirst for old agricultural equipment, you'll enjoy the processing machinery they still have. That black device in the center is not a piece of agricultural equipment, although it does do a lot of threshing and mashing.

There's better information inside, including historical background and a flowchart of the operating procedures.

Storage rooms for grain.

Old equipment.

There's a little shop and sitting area outside.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Two Views of Ma: Nan Fang Shuo and Lin Cho-shui

Nan Fang Shuo, a Taiwanese pro-Blue intellectual, was interviewed in the Taipei Times about the performance and personality of President Ma Ying-jeou. You get a view of how exaggerated and intemperate Nan Fang Shuo can be from this piece from a few years ago. Remember that this is a man widely viewed as a public intellectual. With that in mind, it is fun to look at how he appears in this interview from the Liberty Times via the kind translators at the Taipei Times. The LT opens:

LT: Everyone always gets curious as to why you, who should be close to Ma in political inclinations and such, would be such a severe critic of him after he became the president.

Nan Fang Shuo: Basically, I am holding Taiwan’s politicians and the government to a new standard, especially in this age of democracy and mass media. This new standard is harsher, and in truth I was already quite harsh with the Chen administration.

The Taiwanese public seems to perceive harsh critics as being in the opposition, and is not very open-minded to academics who take the middle ground. Before, when I criticized the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), I was perceived as pan-blue, and now that I criticize the Ma administration, I am viewed as pan-green. I don’t think that I am the problem, but rather that Taiwanese society itself has a problem.

If only Nan Fang Shuo would take a middle ground! Notice how his criticisms of Ma are far more muted than his attack on Chen Shui-bian, even though he is speaking to a pan-Green paper that detests Ma. Most of the interview has him describing Ma in terms familiar terms to anyone who follows politics in Taiwan: a poor leader, a liar, and weak.

....Without core values, the Ma administration is in fact forever deceiving people on every side; deceiving Taiwanese, deceiving Beijing, deceiving every side. In the end, the lies will be seen through, and he won’t be able to smooth things over on both sides. I think that the recent World Health Assembly (WHA) incident is Beijing’s warning to Ma.

.....

.....I think Beijing is tired of the Ma-style populism, and the comments made by [China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson] Fan Liqing (范麗青) weren’t very friendly. Some media even seemed content with Fan’s mention of the “Department of Health of Chinese Taipei,” which is outrageous. I originally thought that Beijing would go along with the Ma-style populism and let Ma win a little, but it seems this time that Beijing doesn’t plan to.

I visited Beijing in the past, and I feel that Beijing has for a long time only listened to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) on issues concerning Taiwan. The Taiwan that Beijing knows is the Taiwan painted for them by KMT government figures both high and low. When Chen assumed the role of president, it was with great determination that Chen reiterated the “four noes and one not” (四不一沒有) policy. If I had been Beijing, I would have met Chen’s initiative with a kinder response, and perhaps Chen’s second term would not have been as hard. From watching Chen’s actions and hearing his speech, Beijing cooperated with the KMT to pick on Chen; Chen was forced into madness.

It is interesting to see Nan Fang Shuo's reconstruction of his own reaction to the Chen Administration, which I linked to above. In addition to accusing the Ma Administration of lying to each audience in turn, he also points out that ECFA has been a failure, and ends on a sort of pathetic note, claiming that journalists used to be friendly to him when he criticized the Chen Administration but now cold shoulder him for criticizing the Ma Administration.

In a similar vein is Lin Cho-shui's commentary that same day. Taking off from Nan Fang Shuo's characterization of Ma as a "scared leader," Lin asks why Ma has become that way. Ma believes all the myths, he concludes, including the myth that the KMT managed the nation to economic glory in the good old days. Lin writes:

Unexpectedly, Ma’s first economic promise — the “6-3-3” policy — became a joke almost as soon as he took office and afterward, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement caused more of Taiwan’s industries to move their operations to China. This was followed by large tax cuts to induce capital to return to Taiwan, but not having established a beneficial investment environment, this capital was instead used to speculate in real estate, pushing housing prices up. High housing costs have now become one of the greatest public complaints. In a hurried response to the problem, the government came up with the luxury tax, which will not really have much effect. This chaotic financial policy and a growing wealth gap is causing public hardship.

...............

Ma also says that his “diplomatic truce” with China, based on the imaginary “1992 consensus” and placing cross relations above relations with other nations — has been a great success. However, on the eve of the World Health Assembly, classified documents surfaced showing that the WHO Secretariat had listed Taiwan as a “province of China.” This turned Ma’s much-touted “flexible diplomacy” into something more like “surrender diplomacy” and resulted in a public uproar.

After coming into office, Ma has continued to make grand promises regarding economics, finance, diplomacy and cross-strait relations, but because he has kowtowed to China to the point of being almost delusional, the last three years have revealed his beliefs for what they truly are — myths. The first myth to be dispelled was the financial myth and then on the eve of his anniversary, the cross-strait diplomacy myth was also dispelled. The poised manner in which Ma took power in 2008 has now given way to anxiety, and he has turned into a scared and panicked leader. Apart from fear and panic, he has nothing and has had no choice but to start abusing his opponent in next year’s presidential election, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), although the vast majority of what he says is a distortion of the facts. This has sullied his “nice guy” image.

Lin does a better job of analyzing the economic issues and makes the connection between the Administration's Bush-style tax cuts and the housing bubble now ongoing in Taiwan. The electorate is angry at Ma not only because of his perceived weakness and drift, but because the promised economic benefits remain distant.

Neither commentator really points to other issues that plagued both Chen and Ma -- Taiwan's unwieldy pushme-pullyou governmental framework with its multiple centers of power which was never intended to be more than the candy coating over an authoritarian state, its weak presidency, and its self-centered and feckless legislature. Nor did they mention his problems with elites in his own party.

Nan Fang Shuo does have one trenchant criticism of Ma that many commentators have echoed:

Everyone knows that there are only a few trusted aides, and if you put it on a larger scale, it’s ruling the Republic of China (ROC) through Taipei. They don’t care about a lot of people, and there are many people in Taiwan that they don’t know about.

This is a version of a deeper critique of Ma I've heard, that his model for national leadership is the Confucian scholar-emperor, aloof, ruling through academic and bureaucratic talent. Early on he was criticized for appointing out-of-touch academics. Each new problem produces speaking by Ma, the way he recently called for more babies or better food inspection, but it does not produce doing. It may not be that Ma is weak so much as he acts as though leadership means putting forth abstractions that others below him must make into reality, rather than articulating a vision of the future which he then gets others to help him carry out.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily Links, May 30, 2011

Diorama effect on a river landscape (same scene, normal).

Very busy these last couple of days, apologies for the light blogging.  Meanwhile, what can you catch on the blogs this week?

BLOGS:

• Craig F has this month's lovely photo calendar.
• Michael C with good pics of riding round K-town.
• James on historical ignorance in Taiwan.
• Thoughts on women and justice in Taiwan
• ETRC passes along CEC announcement that Armageddon the election will take place Jan 14, 2012.
• J Michael points out that while Americans claim Ma has served their interests, they are not helping him out.
• The Foreigner rips The Grand Hotel for serving Beijing.
• AsiaEye under the radar news.
• My man Dom finds good food right in his backyard.
• Some polls still showing Tsai with a small lead over Ma.
• Islaformosa notes that Yahoo is being beaten by Google.
• NSB says new missile unit deployed off coast.
• Expat Angler with the target species: Giant Trevally.
• Taiwanese girls suffer from Princess Disease.
• A trip to Jiufen, with pics and narrative, from Ben at Letters from Taiwan. Get him to explain the hilarious backstory one of these days.

MEDIA:

• China interested in Brazilian farmland. How long can this last? That farmland will become an ever more valuable commodity, and local governments will be constantly tempted to nationalize it. Especially in South America. Won't it be ironic when Socialist China becomes angry at Brazil for socializing farmland?
• DPP says independent travelers from China may be a security risk.
• TSU won't run against DPP in elections. Finally!
• China Post looks at the island's political geography for the 2012 Presidential contest.
• Tsai again says DPP will work on plan to decommission Taiwan's nuke plants.
• Taiwanese fishing boat captain killed in crossfire between US and Somali pirates.
• Bosco on Japan-China relations in CSM -- fear of Beijing dominates Japan's actions so completely Tokyo couldn't even thank Taiwan for its quake donations. 
• Russell Flannery column in Forbes looks at challenges facing Taiwan businesss in China.
• Joel Atkinson at Monash with an excellent review of Taiwan's interests in the South China Sea territorial dispute. Also: a look at the budding US-China rivalry in the South China Sea. Finally, Hanoi accuses China of stoking tensions in the South China Sea as Chinese vessels harass Vietnamese ships. How long before the fighting begins? People who want the US to dump Taiwan forget that Taiwan is only one issue in Asia in which the US may become involved.
• No, the US should not clarify its One China policy. With official Washington increasingly resigned to Taiwan being annexed, now is not the time to push for clarification. This problem can be outlived; preserve the ambiguity.
• Taiwan urges China to stop blocking its websites.
• Divination blocks: every time I see something like this, I kick myself for not thinking of such an easy way to part the gullible from their cash.
• Kastner predicts Beijing will likely stand aside if Singapore and Taiwan can reach a free trade agreement that doesn't treat Taiwan like an independent state.
• Shimpua is alive and well in China today.
• Decisionmakers appear determined to destroy the earth's biosphere as 2010 sees worst ever carbon emissions. The 2C world is now an unattainable utopia. Yet this could all be stopped with current technology.

EVENTS:

• Jerome's next meetup is June 11. The Speaker is Lin Feng-jeng, graduated from Department of Law, National Taiwan University. He was Chairperson of Taiwan Association for Human Rights (2000~2003), Chairman of Radio Taiwan International (2003~2006). He is currently a lawyer of Island Taiwan Law Office and serves as Executive Director of Judicial Reform Foundation (2007~). Topic: From the Hsichih Trio to Judge Law Legislation.
• Democrats Abroad is hosting an event on.... "Tuesday, May 31st at noon -- over at Jin Shan South Road, about a block south of Xin Yi Road, at the section of the old Taihoku Prison wall near the large ChungHwa Telecom building, we will lay a wreath for the American servicemen and women who have given their lives for our country. Afterwards, we will go for lunch hosted by new DA Taiwan chair Jason Echols."

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

DEHP Food scare Round Up

Really loving the new Canon Powershot S95. This was done with the color accent function that can render everything B&W except one selected color, in this case red.

The Taipei Times reports:

Children who consume 350ml of tainted fluid containing 12 parts per million (ppm) of DEHP on a daily basis for 12 consecutive months are six to eight times more at risk of developing problems with their reproductive system when they become adults, recent research by the National Health Research Institutes showed.

Institute president Kenneth Wu (伍焜玉) said DEHP is suspected to be an endocrine disruptor, which could lead to the shrinking in size of the penis and testicles in men and thyroid dysfunction.

DEHP’s effect on children is magnified, because the concentration of the harmful chemical is higher in persons with a lower body mass.

“The health risk of an adult consuming the same amount of DEHP beverage is reduced by half,” Wu said.

The result was based on statistics from a US study in the 1980s that tested DEHP on rats.

“We are not yet sure of the health risks of DEHP on humans because little academic information was found,” Wu said.

“But we hope that the incident can help us understand more of the hazard’s ratio.”
Wu said that since DEHP is released from the body naturally within five to 12 hours, the health risks for infrequent consumers are relatively low.

Lawmakers in Taiwan immediately proposed harsher penalties for food adulteration. Like that will work. The China Post adds:

During yesterday's press conference, Deputy Justice Minister Chen Shou-huang noted that prosecutors in southern Changhua County, which are responsible for investigating the case, have already seized money from the company's owner, surnamed Lai, that he earned by selling the additives.

The move came after authorities received intelligence that Lai had withdrawn all his money from several different bank accounts following the incident. Prosecutors also seized Lai's assets.

Also yesterday, prosecutors in the county raided dozens of food and beverage manufacturers' factories that were found to be using Yu Shen's additive in their products.

A total of 12 factories, including facilities in Taipei, New Taipei City, Changhua County, Nantou County and Pingtung County were searched yesterday, the prosecutors said.

Some famous local brands have been affected. The China Post has some details:

The crisis has caught up with 168 food industry businesses over the last few days, forcing them to discard about 1 million units of their products and feeding fears that their business reputation may become tarnished.

Even state-run enterprises such as Taiwan Sugar Corporation (台糖) and the Taiyen Co. Inc. (台鹽) have to withdraw products made with plasticizers, including some best-sellers, and submit them for testing to SGS, a professional testing company. Already, Taiwan Sugar's Oligo Lactic Acidic Bacteria (寡醣乳酸菌), a best-selling item, was found to be safe.

Uni-President and Weichuan, two giants in the food industry, are said to be checking other products made with raw materials not sourced from Yu Shen Company (昱伸公司), a long-time producer of the additive and the suspected source for the contamination.

Uni-President, Taiwan maker of sports drink Pocari Sweat, says it does not use much plasticizer in its products.

Brand's (白蘭氏), maker of health food the Brand's Chicken Essence, yesterday announced the immediate withdrawal of a calcium tablet and a vitamin tablet, while promising consumers a refund. The two products, made by a Taiwan manufacturer for Brand's and marketed under the Brand's label, have been found to be laced with DEHP. Prince Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.(王子製藥股份有限公司), the manufacturer, has admitted to sourcing materials from Yu Shen while bracing for possible lawsuits against it by Brand's.

The China Post notes that just 49 of the 168 companies involved have confirmed use of the additive.

Not only have the share prices of all local food firms taken a beating, but the scandal has also impacted the reputation of food products from Taiwan. The US FDA is apparently monitoring Taiwan products for DEHP, which is used in industry to make plastic soft and pliable. According to the various news reports, DEHP is not retained in the body for more than several hours, so if you drink and eat DEHP containing products irregularly, you apparently have little to worry about. Which is good, because with the traffic, there is already enough to worry about here....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Why I worry: Escapades of Daughters

Bee and bug in the backyard.

My friend calls us today. She has a daughter a year younger than my own, in the local junior high school. Her daughter, HZ, has a friend, AC. And AC has a friend too, one she met on the internet, Mr Wang Yo.

One day after many chats Mr. Wang Yo proposes to this 14 year old girl that she meet him at a designated 7-11, in her school uniform but sans bra and underwear. "I'll take you to a hotel," he promises.

Excited, AC quickly informs her friends in class, who tell her that this idea is really really dumb. Notwithstanding their appalled objections, AC then is able organize all her classmates -- some to follow her, and some to call her at designated intervals. Notwithstanding their appalled objections, they all agree to do this. Nobody tells their mother or their teacher that AC is meeting a very sick man at 7-11 for illegal sex acts, and the girls in class conceal it from the boys.

The appointed day arrives and AC is waiting at the 7-11, as instructed, a posse of her girlfriends in tow, and others waiting to call her on her cellphone at 15 minute intervals. Mr Wang Yo shows up in a car and she gets in.

HZ's appointed turn to call comes up, and she dials up her friend AC, now in Mr Wang Yo's car. My friend, standing in the kitchen as her daughter is dialing in to this little drama, listens to one very weird phone call. When HZ got off, her mother, one of the toughest and smartest people I know, demands to know what the heck that call was about. After much hemming and hawing, HZ confessed to the plot.

My friend swung into action, and alerted AC's mother. The police were called in. Fourteen year olds are not the best witnesses. Everyone had a cell phone, but nobody thought to get a picture of Mr Wang Yo or his vehicle. Two girls had the presence of mind to record the plate number of the car; one wrote it down wrong and the other wrote down the number correctly but the police later found it didn't exist. The plate was a fake.

The mother called AC again and again for three hours as she rode around in the car with Mr Wang Yo. She repeatedly refused to get out of the car with a strong bu yao! Finally, Mr Wang Yo dumped her on a corner in the science park nearby.

Luckily a policeman came along as the girl was wandering around the science park, and took her back to the local police station, where she was eventually reunited with her mother.

The next day in class this event was handled with the usual ineptitude and lack of concern for victims that seems to characterize teacher-student interactions locally. AC's teacher described what happened to the whole class, identifying AC and reaming her out in front of everyone. The boys in the class quickly learned what had happened and AC became the butt of their bullying and abuse. She was shamed in front of the whole school. This caused the girls to rally round her and extend her their sympathy, which may have been AC's motivation for the whole exercise, since AC was an unpopular girl not part of any clique, who got poor grades, and probably enjoyed all the attention.

The affair was concluded when Mr Wang Yo called AC's mom to apologize, saying he had a wife and kids too. And, by  phoning them, letting them know he had their phone number and probably could easily find out where they lived.

This tale took place against a terrifying background. Just this week a horrible tale of rape-murder emerged. Three teenage boys had taken three girls to a secluded place, killed one and then threated the other two into silence. For three years. Finally, after years of depression, they told their tale and the budding young sociopath was arrested.

Somehow there has to be a way to educate women of that age that this world is full of predators.
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Daily Links:

• Ma Ying-jeou's book/article on the Senkakus.
• Soft power for Taiwan through bicycles
• A Taiwanese explains why Taiwanese like Japan so much.
• Not Taiwan: Top Ten new species discovered in 2010. Includes Orb spider with 82 foot wide web. Way cool. Also: setting up a totally renewable power system

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

45 Senators want F-16s for Taiwan

Hot on the heels of Peter Enav's excellent, thorough, and very fair analysis of whether the US should sell F-16s to Taiwan....

The months ahead could prove rocky. Ma faces a tough re-election fight next January, during which he will likely have to show that while ties with Beijing are improving, relations with Washington are solid; the F-16s would be proof. Should Ma lose, Beijing would almost certainly ramp up tensions with his successor, whose party is at least formally committed to Taiwanese independence. That too would seem to argue for a sale of the F-16s.

Kudos for AP for pointing out that it is China that ramps up tensions, not the DPP. Enav also highlights Ma's equivocating on defense. The WSJ column of Paul's Mozur's asked the same question, and gives a good, detailed review of the issue as well.

Today the news broke that 45 senators had asked for F-16 sales to Taiwan. The Cable at Foreign Policy has the call:

The letter was spearheaded by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and James Inhofe (R-OK), the two senators who resurrected the Senate Taiwan Caucus in January just in time for the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao. But it was also signed by Sens. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT), the two leaders of the brand-new China Working Group, which was created to build ties between Congress and Beijing.

The senators admit they have more than one motivation for selling F-16 fighters to Taiwan.

"We are deeply concerned that further delay of the decision to sell F-16s to Taiwan could result in the closure of the F-16 production line, and urge you to expedite this defense export process before the line closes," they wrote.

Over 4,500 F-16s have been produced and deployed by the U.S. and over a dozen other countries in the last 40 years, but the U.S. air force no longer purchases the plane and producer Lockheed Martin depends on foreign sales to keep the F-16 business going.

This is big, as news, but it really changes nothing. The F-16s aren't coming here because the Ma Administration doesn't really want them and the Obama Administration doesn't want to sell them -- Ma is just making noise -- and because, as a friend of mine and I were just discussing tonight, there's a growing spirit of resignation in DC that Taiwan is circling the drain. Apparently everyone has forgotten the simple lesson that you don't make the monster smaller by feeding it. I'm glad I won't have to be the official who has to explain to the public why the US wouldn't defend 23 million people in an allied democracy with its own armed forces but will go to war over some uninhabited rocks in the ocean because of the US-Japan Security Treaty.

Of course, the way to read that, as Bob Sutter hinted in his most recent analysis (blogpost), is that if Taiwan is sold out, Japan will be next.

Another fighter deal happening this week should also be of interest to Taiwan: India chose not to go with a US fighter for its upcoming massive jet purchase.

India’s Defence Ministry did the previously unthinkable earlier this month. As reported previously in The Diplomat, India eliminated two major US aviation firms—Boeing and Lockheed Martin—from the race to secure a lucrative $11 billion contract to supply 126 combat jets to the Indian Air Force.

After a gruelling, two-year process including field trials of the six aircraft in extreme weather conditions, the Defence Ministry shortlisted two European firms—EADS and Dassault Aviation. Swedish Firm Saab and Russian RSK MiG were the other two bidders left disappointed.

The decision sent shockwaves through Washington’s defence establishment as it had expended significant political, diplomatic and commercial capital in trying to secure the contract. Indeed, US President Barack Obama lobbied on behalf of the US firms during his November 2010 visit to New Delhi, following up with a letter to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Fear not, the deal does not signal a major shift in India's relations with the US. China's close relations with Pakistan appear to be aimed squarely at India, meaning that sooner or later New Delhi is going to show up in Washington with a dowry and a wedding ring. My friend and I also noted in our discussion tonight that Indian thinkers have been looking at Taiwan as a possible counterweight to China. I've been advocating for years that Taiwan needs to move closer to India strategically but Taiwanese leaders don't seem to be headed in that direction. Fortunately this is already happening at the grass roots. Taiwan's universities are flooded with Indian grad students who are always a pleasure to talk to (Is there any way to stop them from calling me "sir"? I feel like the personal agent of the Raj whenever they do that). Below is the heartwarming sight of a line 200 meters long forming in my university cafeteria, students waiting to purchase a plate of real Indian curry made by grad students from India, for $60 NT. Even when elites refuse to make the right policy, the people can still vote with their feet.

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Daily Links:

• Don't miss this badly organized and historically inaccurate editorial from the China Post on J Michael Cole, the Taipei Times editor. Congrats, J Michael, you've made the big time. 
• Robert Sutter again explaining why Taiwan's freedom of action is eroding. Bob, can you tell us what we should be doing to enlarge it? 
• Poll says most Taiwanese want to work in China. Sure.
• Taipei Dome gets go-ahead, angering environmentalists
• Ma wants birthrate boosted. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

ECFA not panacea for free trade agreements.

WSJ has a nifty piece on ECFA today, pointing out that ECFA has not improved Taiwan's situation with regard to the free trade agreements proliferating around Asia. Back in 2009 I wrote:

The KMT Administration's position is the classic "shock doctrine" position:

1. Hurry! The rest of Asia, including China, is forming a free trade region!
2. We'll be locked out of this if we don't get on board now!
3. Our economy is in the tank! We must do something now!
4. Claims that opponents' objections are "ideological"

Fast forward to 2011 and this important rationale for the KMT Administration's ECFA signing has turned out to be a dud so far. As the WSJ piece notes:

Although Taiwan signed a landmark trade agreement with China last year, many experts say the island's trade negotiations with key markets such as the European Union and Japan have been bogged down by Chinese opposition and political differences. This has led Taiwan's export-dependent economy to become increasingly cut off from the network of trade agreements that have proliferated over the past decade, giving Taiwan's regional rivals a competitive advantage that could harm the island's long-term growth prospects, they argue.

In particular, an agreement that will eliminate most tariffs between South Korea and the European Union that is set to take effect July 1 will likely harm Taiwan, as its exports to the EU in industries such as plastics, auto parts and machinery will continue to be subjected to tariffs ranging from 16% to 55%, the Taiwan External Trade Council warned Wednesday.

"Taiwan's major competitor is South Korea; almost 70% of Taiwan exports to Europe overlap with South Korea. This will bring tremendous pressure on Taiwan's businesses," said Chen-yuan Tung, professor at National Chengchi University's Graduate Institute of Development Studies. If Korea's trade agreement with the U.S.—which was originally crafted in April 2007 but has yet to gain approval—passes, the pressure will be even higher, he added.

As WSJ notes, many analysts said at the time that signing ECFA would enable FTAs with other nations, especially the US, Japan, and the EU. So far only Singapore has shown interest.

Another issue that we were told ECFA would help with was foreign investment. Here are the percentage changes in approved cases of foreign direct investment for 2008, 2009, and 2010: -46.4%, -41.8%, -20.6%(DGBAS). Granted, we took a beating from the world financial crisis but in the first quarter of 2011 it fell another 34%. Clearly an ugly pattern is forming. No doubt China, a much better place for investment at the moment, is attracting much of the capital that might have been invested in Taiwan, true both of foreign capital and capital that Taiwanese themselves have parked overseas.

Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) has had a couple of commentaries in the Taipei Times recently on Taiwan's economy. I have omitted some of Tung's piece where the numbers are decontextualized and lack concrete meaning. However, some of it is quite good. In his most recent one, he remarks:

It is worth noting that almost a year after the ECFA was signed, the early effects are far less impressive than expected.

First, Taiwan has only completed a joint study with Singapore into the signing of an FTA. It seems unlikely that such an agreement will be signed between the two countries in the near future, let alone with other Southeast Asian countries.

Even if Singapore and Taiwan were to sign an FTA, that would be of little significance to Taiwan’s economy as a whole, since trade between the two only makes up 3.6 percent of Taiwan’s foreign trade.

Tung also asserts:

Fifth, following the implementation of the ECFA, Taiwanese investment in China continued to grow rapidly. In 2008, Taiwanese businesspeople invested US$10.69 billion in China, an increase of 128 percent. In 2009, the figure was US$7.14 billion, 33 percent less than the year before because of the impact of the international financial crisis.

Last year, investment increased by US$12.23 billion, an 102 percent increase. In the first quarter this year, Taiwanese investment in China continued its rapid increase, growing by 65.4 percent, or US$3.71 billion, although Taiwanese foreign investment has declined by 4.8 percent.

Sixth, following the implementation of the ECFA, Taiwanese capital has continued to flow out of the country. During the three years of Ma’s presidency, a net average of US$20 billion of international capital has flowed out of Taiwan annually, much more than the US$13.2 billion that flowed out of Taiwan every year under the DPP administration.

Little investment is flowing in from China; moreover, speculative investment from Chinese in properties in the Taipei Basin has no effect on the island's standard of living.

As we come up to the elections in January it will be interesting to see whether and how the DPP makes use of ECFA's failures to live up to any of its constantly shifting rationales (the economy recovered fine without ECFA). It will also be interesting to see how much the Ma gov't will give away to Singapore if it can get the FTA in prior to the election.
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Fallows on "Taiwanese" Soft Power

James Fallows, longtime reporter and commentator, writes on NextMedia Animation:

In the most recent of my frequent paeans to Next Media Animation of Taiwan, I mentioned that the relatively small population of Taiwan was enjoying considerable creative and pop culture influence now -- especially compared with mainland China -- with resulting "soft power" benefits for Taiwan in general. (The latest NMA animation, by the way, is about the pending SF ban on circumcision.) A reader with a Chinese name has an explanation...

The "reader's" explanation sounded plausible but the final two lines should set off your alarm bells as to what desires are shaping his interpretations.

More interesting question: just what the heck is Taiwanese soft power anyway? Is NMA an example of it?

NMA is owned by Jimmy Lai from Hong Kong and is a company from outside Taiwan. Its world-renowned animations are on popular topics in the west and the animations that become famous do not introduce local political or cultural stuff to the outside world. To the extent that it raises Taiwan's image in the world it represents a positive force, but I'm hesitant to label it Taiwanese soft power. It is more like a typical innovative Taiwan OEM operation that happens to produce animations rather than electronics. In that sense it is quality-manufacturing-as-soft power in the way that our world-famous bike and electronics and machinery industries are soft power.

Where does Taiwan's soft power reside? In the millions of Taiwanese who travel, study, live and work outside Taiwan. In the experience of people who come here and fall in love with the place. In the export of things like bubble tea. In second generation locals of Taiwanese descent all over the world. In our excellent manufacturing reputation. In our historical links to outside colonizers.

Fallows' reader points to the cross-pollination of the popular entertainment industry in Taiwan, Korea, Japan and China. Pop entertainment in those cultures is largely the same shallow artificial construct of cash, song formulas, and plastic surgery. Is the effect of pop culture NMA as powerful as, say, daily interaction with the hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese who live overseas or the thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses who act as suppliers to the global supply chain? Where would you locate Taiwanese soft power?
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Plasticizer in your sports drink

List of drinks with the plasticizer DEHP. The Taipei Times reports:

Four convenience store chains and eight hypermarts agreed to stop selling several brand-name sports and soft drinks containing the banned chemical starting at midnight on Monday after the department made its initial announcement.

Consumers can return products containing DEHP to the stores for refunds, the Consumer Protection Commission (CPC) said.

Wu Cheng-hsueh (吳政學), a section chief at the commission, added that the CPC had asked local consumer protection officials to work with health officials and prosecutors to continue to trace the affected products.

Prosecutors said clouding agent formulated with palm oil may be used as a food additive. However, as the cost of palm oil is high, Lai is alleged to have been adding industrial plasticizer to his clouding agent, which he supplied to at least 45 soft drink and dairy manufacturers around Taiwan.

Lai, 57, the owner of the largest clouding agent supplier in the nation, has a high-capacity manufacturing plant in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, and supplies Chinese and Vietnamese manufacturers as well as local companies.

Wouldn't the list of poisons not found in food products coming out of China be shorter?

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Between Sozzled and Sober

Sovereignty - n. the notion that the role of government may be properly compared to that of an authoritarian father, coupled integrally with the faith of a three-year-old that "my dad can beat up your dad."

Reading the news that Taiwan may become a "meaningful" participant in UN agencies and organizations UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Michael Danielson over at the Taiwan Corner remarked:

Taiwan wants meaningful participation in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) using the WHA model. Great idea but the important question that has to be answered is how it is possible to trust Taiwanese KMT negotiators handling the meaningful participation now that Taiwan is registered as a province of China in WHO using the WHA-model.

Sadder still, as I pointed out when this broke, the WHO isn't setting a precedent but following higher policy. The long-term implications of this endless series of damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't choices aren't very pretty.

Still, moments of low humor abounded. The Taipei Times quoted.

“Chinese Taipei” stands for “Republic of China [ROC], Taipei,” Shen said, adding that the use of Taipei rather than “Taibei,” as it is written by Beijing, clearly showed it stood for the ROC and not the People’s Republic of China.

B vs P: now that's hairsplitting! As I recall, the Chinese Taipei formula was first proposed by the KMT for use in the Olympics (see this post on Beijing's foreign policy in sports for how that works in China in practice).

Front page news today in the Taipei Times: Taiwanese woman's marriage certificate in Japan says she is from China.

The documents I presented for marriage registration in Japan were my household registration transcript and affidavit to single status. Both were authenticated by Taiwanese authorities,” Lee said. “However, the marriage certificate that I got in return states China as my nationality.”

DPP Legislator Tsai Huang--liang (蔡煌瑯) said the government should be held responsible for such cases, adding that the so-called “diplomatic truce” with Beijing that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) had initiated after he took office in May 2008 had “failed to defend the nation’s sovereignty” and led to an international misconception that Taiwan belongs to China.

“When the DPP was in power, Taiwan was not denigrated by Japan; its household authority clearly distinguished Taiwan from China,” Tsai said. “Under Ma’s ‘diplomatic truce’ policy, even Japan, which has been friendly to Taiwan, now lists Taiwan as a province of China.”

An anonymous official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Association of East Asian Relations said that Japan would introduce a new foreign residency permit scheme in July next year in which it would list “Taiwanese” as the nationality of Taiwanese living in Japan.

The new scheme was based on Japan’s immigration law, which was amended by the House of Representatives in June 2009. Under the existing visa system, Taiwanese are classified under “China” for their nationality, the official said.

Blaming the Ma gov't for decisions taken decades ago is kind of silly. This looks more like Japanese official laziness than official maliciousness. The China Post report contains more information:

In response to the accusations, Deputy Foreign Minister Shen Lyu-shun (沈呂巡), who was fielding questions during the hearing, said he will look into the matter and would not tolerate such a deliberate denial of Taiwan's sovereignty.

A MOFA official later informed reporters that the alien registration card that the Japanese government grants to Taiwanese citizens still lists their nationality as “China” or “China (Taiwan).”

Any foreigners staying in Japan for more than 90 days are required to register for the card.

He believed that the Japanese household registration affairs officials simply registered the woman as a Chinese national based on the information listed on the registration card.

The gods love irony and offered us a couple of painful examples this week with Croatia and Slovenia -- breakaway regions of the former Yugoslavia --  both following the policy of labeling Taiwan a province of China. This sort of policy is perfectly normal and will become increasingly normal as China's power and influence continue to wax.

The fascinating thing is the universal condemnation it evokes in Taiwan from the locals -- you know, those people who pay their taxes at the Tax Office labeled "Taiwan Province", drive on Provincial Route 3 to and from Taichung, nonchalantly refer to the island nation as a "province" in conversation, and so on. People rarely become publicly indignant over these labels though there is much private resentment. Perhaps it shows how much these pro-China local labels have become part of the  slurry of identities that Taiwanese carry around, but it may also show how other nations that use the "Taiwan, Province of China" formula become convenient scapegoats for issues Taiwanese would rather not face at home....

Not to mention, it surely must be confusing to the representatives of the sovereign nations of Croatia and Slovenia as they perform their daily tasks in Taipei.....after all, isn't it the official policy of the current government that Taiwan is part of China?
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Paddy Fields in a Globalized World

The Taipei Times ran a really great commentary today on the many benefits of paddy fields by Chan Shun-kuei, who heads up the environmental committee of the Taipei Law Association. It paints a beautiful portrait of the positive externalities of paddy fields, which account for just over half of the cultivated farmland in Taiwan:

Most think that growing rice in paddy fields uses up a lot of water and is of little economic benefit, and that devoting more land to rice would put Taiwan’s water supply under greater strain. That may be true under the current short-term conditions, but in the long term, paddy fields actually do not use a lot of water. On the contrary, they are an efficient way of circulating water.

Apart from the private benefit gained by farmers harvesting rice, paddy fields are beneficial for the whole nation. Research conducted in Taiwan and abroad confirms that paddy fields help regulate floodwater and replenish groundwater. The reservoir ponds that dot Taiwan’s countryside contribute to this effect. Other benefits of paddy fields include beautifying the environment, purifying water, regulating the temperature and generating oxygen.

....

In 1993, Tsai Ming-hua (蔡明華), now director of the council’s Department of Irrigation and Engineering, carried out research into the beneficial effects of paddy field irrigation. He found that, between 1982 and 1992, the reduction of land devoted to paddy fields caused Taiwan to lose 13.473 billion tonnes of groundwater that would otherwise have been replenished through paddy field irrigation — roughly 23 times the storage capacity of the Zengwen Reservoir (曾文水庫).

Fighting drought in the short term may require extraordinary means, but water resources also need to be planned over the long term. Consumption can be reduced through pricing, by charging higher, differential and progressive rates for water use. Replacing old pipes would reduce leakage. Domestic and industrial wastewater can be recycled and reused. Existing reservoirs should be preserved wherever possible. Soil and water in reservoir catchment areas could be conserved by preventing unauthorized farming and construction.

Proper care should be taken of farmers and the land. Putting fallow fields back into production would make Taiwan more self-sufficient in food, and it would also replenish groundwater, forming a natural reservoir. As well as regulating the water supply, this would reduce the problem of land subsidence. To do so would have many advantages, since it would cost less and have a smaller environmental impact than building more reservoirs, artificial lakes or desalination plants.

The author points out that the actual amount of water used to grow the crops is tiny, the rest returns to circulation, including helping to replenish groundwater resources that benefit everyone. In addition to stopping subsidence and providing continued flows of groundwater, this paper observes that paddy field water also raises the local water tables, benefiting local flora. In fact, the author argues that "conserving water" during wet months is counterproductive:

Thus, from the viewpoint of effective utilization of water resources, it is meaningless to save water during wet months. On the contrary, if the excess water is available in rivers, it should be timely delivered to the paddy field to enhance the storage function of the paddy field, maintain adequate percolation and replenish ground-water, without having to follow the strict water conservation measures.

Experiments on using paddy fields to artificially recharge groundwater were conducted in Taiwan beginning in the 1980s (for example). The author also advocated over-irrigation as a way to replenish lost groundwater on the Changhua plain. Severe subsidence continues, however.

Paddy field water effects are so powerful that as rice imports drive paddies out of business, this author argued for converting fallow fields into wetlands to preserve their important externalities for the island's water circulation: wildlife benefits, groundwater replenishment, and flood mitigation. Sadly, it seems unlikely that anything so rational will occur.

Rice paddy field areas in Taiwan (source). How many of you would have guessed that Taoyuan has more paddy fields than Pingtung?

In Taiwan the government runs a set-aside program for farmland under which large quantities of farmland lie fallow. In some years the amount set aside exceeds the amount planted in rice (!). This program has come under much criticism, since sometimes farmland becomes unusable after being set aside and land lying uncared for invites pests that affect nearby farms. This results in abandoned land, 50,000 hectares by one 2004 estimate. When land leaves the market, it drives up the price of remaining land, pushing up rents -- and many farmers are renters, not owners. Further, for many observers it makes little sense to set aside good farmland in the lowlands while permitting farming on slopes. The set aside program is also driven by shortages of water, diverted for industrial and residential needs. Everything is exacerbated by the lack of government oversight and monitoring, a persistent problem in all areas of government policy in Taiwan.

Paddy fields have other important benefits that Chan's piece was too short to mention. This paper observes that paddies cool the air around them, saving electricity:

When water evaporated from the ponding surface of paddy, it takes up heat from surrounding air, lowering the air temperature, especially in the summer. Using the thermal band of Landsat 7 satellite image, Tan (2004) has shown a 7.81 C temperature difference between paddy field and urban land cover. To evaluate the air-cooling effect, Wu (2003) shown that the net electric power saving of rice paddy is 4,497 unit power/ha/day.

Rice paddies also purify water and release oxygen. Their single negative environmental effect is methane emissions, methane being 20 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. The IPCC estimates that 20% of total global methane emissions are from rice paddies.

One study looked at the total external benefits of rice paddies in two agricultural plains in Taiwan. It calculated:

Moreover, the internal value of rice production ranges from 1.332 to 1.886 billion NT$ and the
external value of rice paddy ranges from 5.836 to 9.851 billion NT$ in the Ping-Tung plain.

The internal value is basically what you can sell the rice for, while the external value represents the benefits to the local ecology as a whole.

Such values should spark thoughtful contemplation of the poverty that imperils many rural communities in Taiwan: as their paddies are taken out of production or converted to factories and cookie-cutter housing developments, many positive externalities that raise living standards and local incomes are lost. For this reason some academics have proposed a green subsidy for farmers because paddy field benefits are so economically important and externally beneficial.

The importance of paddies in local environmental and water regulation also raise the issue of farm subsidies in global trade agreements, the impoverished and destructive way "competitiveness" is defined, as well as the actual cost of importing agricultural goods. From the ecological perspective farm subsidies may just be one way society can return to the farmer some of the benefits the farmer gives all of us, while the loss of groundwater, flood control benefits, local cooling, wildlife, and continued subsidence are some of the hidden costs of the globalization and commodification of agricultural products that don't show up in the lower prices of imported goods, and are not recouped by local society in its interaction with global trade networks.
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Daily Links, May 23, 2011

What's abuzz on the blogs today? And extra points if you know what moment in Taiwan history today is the anniversary of.

ADDED: Juan Cole's post toting up China's booming relations with Pakistan -- with Islamabad offering Beijing a naval base right on the Persian Gulf. Hey, how's that $1.2 trillion blown on Afghanistan working out for ya there, Washington?

BLOGS:

• Save the Dolphins on the ongoing pollution crisis in the Dadu estuary
• Mad Minerva locates a recent interview with that national disaster Henry Kissinger and his remarks on Taiwan. Although it looks like the throwing of Taiwan under the bus is bipartisan. The existence of Ma in the presidency gives Washington an excuse to say "well, they voted for it!"
• Michael Cannon shows off his new Speedone Steel bike with the SRAM Force build. Drew describes his odyssey as Michael searched for the perfect bike. Actually, I'm deeply jealous, the bike looks awesome. 
• Taiwan Round the Island Tour. Apply for your individual version today!
• Oz rips the President for letting the world downgrade Taiwan's status.
• Yellow Fever, Foreign Moons on Miscegenation and other fun stuff
• AsiaEye with the under the radar news.
• ETRC Group on the election and Taiwan's international space
• Defend Our Taipei Homes -- a rousing military moment in Taipei
• The Writing Baron with a hard hitting post on the racist remarks by KMT's Liao about aborigines, latest in a long line of bipartisan disparagement of the island's original people.

MEDIA:

• Taiwan stuck in Red Queen race. Actually it looks like with each iteration of this contest over sovereignty, the island retreats a little more.
• After media reports that Taiwan was only going to buy four of the eight subs it originally asked for, the gov't says it wants 8 subs and 66 fighters from the US.
• Everyone is raising their growth forecast for Taiwan. Barclays says 6% this year.
• Taiwan's export dependence on China is stagnant, thankfully.
• Taiwan and Singapore in Free Trade talks. Singapore will be symbolically important if Taiwan gets an FTA. Remember when Ma assured us ECFA was necessary for FTAs? Nobody has offered one, except Singapore. 
• Grouper and Tilapia prices both up.
• Dan Blumenthal asks: Can the US advance its goals in the Asia Pacific without resources? As we burn our treasury and military in our endless war on Islam, the policy drift out here continues.
• Dr. Doom and the Chinese economy: will it crash and burn?

EVENTS:

Taiwan Association of University Professors is having a seminar on the White Terror. Presentations are in Chinese.
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Taiwan Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions

From Mongabay, a useful environmental site. Note that this data is only industrial, land use emissions of carbon dioxide such as deforestation are not included.

++++++++++++++

Table of annual carbon emissions 

and per capita emissions for Taiwan 

(metric tons of carbon).

All emission estimates are expressed in thousand metric tons of carbon. 

Per capita emission estimates are expressed in metric tons of carbon.

YEAR	Carbon emissions	Per capita emissions
1896	1	N/A
1897	14	N/A
1898	31	N/A
1899	22	N/A
1900	30	N/A
1901	48	N/A
1902	70	N/A
1903	59	N/A
1904	60	N/A
1905	69	N/A
1906	75	N/A
1907	98	N/A
1908	112	N/A
1909	133	N/A
1910	168	N/A
1911	185	N/A
1912	202	N/A
1913	233	N/A
1914	251	N/A
1915	277	N/A
1916	378	N/A
1917	491	N/A
1918	585	N/A
1919	794	N/A
1920	831	N/A
1921	752	N/A
1922	975	N/A
1923	1046	N/A
1924	1090	N/A
1925	1225	N/A
1926	1297	N/A
1927	1345	N/A
1928	1147	N/A
1929	1144	N/A
1930	1158	N/A
1931	1030	N/A
1932	981	N/A
1933	1145	N/A
1934	1139	N/A
1935	1191	N/A
1936	1292	N/A
1937	1433	N/A
1938	1610	N/A
1939	1960	N/A
1940	2120	N/A
1941	2166	N/A
1942	1752	N/A
1943	1754	N/A
1944	1264	N/A
1945	597	N/A
1946	781	N/A
1947	988	N/A
1948	1239	N/A
1949	1221	N/A
1950	1033	0.14
1951	1340	0.17
1952	1745	0.22
1953	1768	0.21
1954	1771	0.21
1955	1966	0.22
1956	2099	0.23
1957	2235	0.23
1958	2614	0.26
1959	3001	0.29
1960	3242	0.31
1961	3421	0.31
1962	3869	0.34
1963	4126	0.35
1964	4618	0.38
1965	4874	0.39
1966	5315	0.42
1967	6000	0.46
1968	6593	0.48
1969	7180	0.51
1970	7848	0.54
1971	8596	0.58
1972	9797	0.65
1973	10991	0.71
1974	10736	0.68
1975	11868	0.74
1976	15323	0.94
1977	16697	1
1978	19400	1.14
1979	20695	1.2
1980	22813	1.3
1981	20504	1.14
1982	20594	1.12
1983	22712	1.21
1984	23183	1.23
1985	23148	1.21
1986	25770	1.33
1987	26822	1.37
1988	30893	1.56
1989	33634	1.67
1990	34345	1.69
1991	37384	1.82
1992	40275	1.95
1993	43665	2.09
1994	45698	2.17
1995	48626	2.28
1996	50967	2.38
1997	54798	2.54
1998	57809	2.65
1999	56082	2.55
2000	59373	2.68
2001	61892	2.77
2002	63890	2.85
2003	66635	2.95
2004	70339	3.1
2005	72452	3.19
2006	74372	3.26
2007	77405	0
2008	75066	0

All data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Data excludes emissions from land use and agriculture (including deforestation).

CITATION: Tom Boden, Gregg Marland, Robert J. Andres. Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2006. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Oak Ridge, Tennessee. April 29, 2009. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001
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"Honey, what are we going to do with that tacky statue your mother gave us?"

Taken on 3 about 3 kms south of Nanhu.
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Missiles? What Missiles? Those aren't missiles! We're just happy to see you.....

In his column at WSJ Paul Mozur highlights a Chinese official's claim that no missiles are pointed at Taiwan.

At the first high-level military dialogue between the U.S. and China since military contact was derailed following the sale of $6 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan in January 2010, Gen. Chen denied that China had any missiles across from Taiwan, saying, “I can tell you here, responsibly, that we only have garrison deployment across from Taiwan and we do not have operational deployment, much less missiles stationed there.”

Experts and Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense say China has more than 1,000 missiles targeted at Taiwan. While many of the missiles may not be “across from Taiwan,” they’re awfully close, as Mark Stokes, executive director of think tank Project 2049 Institute thoroughly chronicles in a recent blog post.

While Gen. Chen's obvious lies provoked mostly laughter among observers, two high-ranking American officials, Sec of State Hilary Clinton and Adm Mullen, demonstrated a poor grip on US policy that had the State Department out the following day "clarifying" what they said. The Taipei Times reports:

At a Washington press conference on Wednesday, Chen said: “During my office call on Secretary Clinton this morning, she told me — she reiterated the US policy; that is, there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China.”

His remarks alarmed Taiwanese-American groups, who called the US Department of State on Thursday asking for an explanation.

They particularly wanted to know if US policy toward Taiwan had changed.
Late on Thursday night, a US official said: “The United States has maintained a consistent policy across eight administrations; our ‘one China’ policy, based on the three US-China Joint Communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act, has not changed. The secretary reiterated this policy yesterday in her meeting with General Chen.”

Somebody didn't listen at the briefing! ADDED: Although Chen is probably lying about what she said.

And frankly, that's what the State Department gets for not simply clearly and forthrightly stating what US policy is: the status of Taiwan is undetermined. This sort of nonsense could be avoided if US officials would stop playing coy.

And then there was Adm Mullen:

[Mullen] said: “As General Chen said, Secretary Clinton repeated and I would only re-emphasize the United States policy supports a ‘one China’ policy. And I certainly share the view of the peaceful reunification of China.”

Later, Captain John Kirby, a spokesman for Mullen, explained: “The chairman fully supports the United States’ ‘one China’ policy, which is based on the three US-China Joint Communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act. This policy has been consistent across eight administrations. The United States supports a peaceful resolution acceptable to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. It is this peaceful resolution to which the chairman was referring.”

FAPA put out a statement pointing out that the US should make it clear democratic Taiwan has the US' full support and that Taiwan's status is undetermined.

A counterpoint to this barrage of misunderstandings is the clarity of the increasingly pessimistic view of things from observers in Washington. This week longtime Taiwan expert Robert Sutter wrote for the NBR with the following policy implications:

• Policy elites in Taiwan and the U.S. privately may be aware of the implications of Chinese leverage in determining Taiwan’s future and perhaps may favor Taiwan’s eventual reunification with China. However, other stakeholders in the media, among politicians and interest groups, and in the general public are not. Without a clearer view of existing realities, these groups may lash out in ultimately futile but highly disruptive ways as their preferred status quo wanes.
• A similar backlash can be anticipated from like-minded stakeholders within the Taiwan and U.S. administrations who cling to unrealistic expectations that Taiwan can preserve freedom of action amid the increasingly constraining circumstances caused by a rising China, a weakened Taiwan, and declining U.S. support.
• U.S. allies and friends in Asia, notably Japan, will require extraordinary reassurance that U.S. government encouragement of conditions leading to the resolution of Taiwan’s future and reunification with China does not forecast a power-shift in the region. Perceptions of such a shift would require dramatic and probably disruptive policy changes by regional states, ranging from bandwagoning with China to indigenous rearmament to become less reliant on declining U.S. power and resolve.

Sutter's view is quite clear: China's grip is tightening, the US is in decline and if the US is going to convince people it is a credible partner in East Asia's future but, at the same time, let China annex Taiwan, it is going to have to do some incredible tap dancing. Sutter does not complete the thought: ...and it doesn't seem likely the US can do that. 

A key issue a number of people have observed, most recently Steve Tsang in Asia Times, is that the twin problem of US decline + Taiwan's defense decline = an extremely unstable situation in which China might easily conclude that a quick victory is possible in a war because the US cannot/will not intervene, and Japan won't move without the US. Tsang points out, as many observers including myself have noted, that the current democracy is incompatible with single-party authoritarian rule in China, which means it will have to be eliminated.

But think carefully. Taiwan's democracy is more than skin deep and its people are immensely proud of it. The KMT can cause it immense harm but does not, at this point, appear to be able to blot it out. Meaning that the military option may be more attractive because it will enable China to efficiently crush the island's democracy, which cannot be done by peaceful means, without becoming beholden to the KMT. Weakness here and in Washington is an invitation. And we all know how limited wars swiftly become infinite -- see Afghanistan, Libya.....
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Daily Links:

• Patrick Cowsill nails how desperate the Taipei city government is to connect to the Qing Dynasty rather than relate true history. Pathetic.
• Is Taiwan's press freedom slipping away?
• That's Impossible! points out: But it's fair to wonder if the continued international pressure Beijing exerts indirectly against Taiwan, such as in the WHO title issue, is aimed at forcing the KMT into political negotiations by forcing them to bleed a little on these issues every now and then. Yep. 
• EU is investigating Evergreen and other Asian lines for forming a shipping cartel.
• Exports to drive GDP growth to 5.06%. That's .06, not 0.5 or 0.7. 
• AP says Ma's requests for F-16s are putting US in a bind. Are they? Does Ma really want them, or is it just noise? 
• China's economy -- a structural mess. The insights of the report covered in this article are excellent.

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