Geopolitically, you can relax... for a while

As local indigenous villages discover the power of tourism, they are putting in colorful gates

The speculation over Taiwan and the new Trump Administration has included some very strange assertions, especially from the KMT, that Taiwan might well become some kind of bargaining chip.

Nope. Not gonna happen. In fact, Taiwan's position vis-a-vis* the US is almost certainly going to improve. For starters, the new Sec of the Navy might well be Randy Forbes. Forbes is a longtime supporter of Taiwan. Forbes' staffer Alexander Gray will be on the Asia team -- also likes Taiwan. Other names mentioned include Randy Schriver, very pro-Taiwan, and perhaps the very gracious Steve Yates (a quiet inspiration for this blogger), very pro-Taiwan. Richard Armitage, who has long worked on Taiwan issues, has also been mentioned.

Most of those names will be familiar, but others might not be. Just in Taiwan very recently was Ed Feulner (note this 2011 piece), obvious where his sympathies are. And then there is Peter Navarro, in the news here with strong statements: Trump Advisor indicates Taiwan stance? "China is behaving like a bullying thug against Taiwan" (video). John Bolton, a longtime Taiwan supporter, has been rumored to be a possibility for Sec of State. Most of these people worked in the Bush Administration as well.

All of these people, and any eventual Trump Administration, will likely take a much harder line than the Clinton Administration on China, or so some insiders have already declared. The Trump Administration is not going to have any of those "We will achieve a breakthrough!" delusions that afflicted the Clinton Administration, nor do any of its people come out of consulting firms doing business with China. And in the geopolitical calculus that governs the Strait, when the US moves away from China, it moves towards Taiwan. Indeed, suggestions that the Trump Administration represents a fresh start for US-Taiwan relations are already flying into mags where such pieces appear.

But for those of you making mental calculations about when war is going to break out here in Asia, you should probably advance your timetables. Xi is not going to become less hardline, and the US is becoming even more hardline. Just last week Chinese "coast guard" vessels once again tested the Senkaku waters. And David Feith argued in WSJ that Trump will increase the Nuke Crisis in Asia

Interesting times...

*It is important if you are going to be a political commentator that you use this phrase.
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Daily Links:

• Marriage equality... not on the way yet.
• The crucial 1977 Jhongli Incident, a turning point in the pro-democracy resistance
• KMT making staff cuts
• Retired ROC Military officer in audience as Xi threatens Taiwan
• Foreigners to enter pension system... and those of us who have paid into the system for years?
• Offshore wind group formed to turn wind into energy. The wind is there, but the Taiwan power grid is primitive, one of the ways Taipower continues to block renewable energy. 
• Taiwan finally begins to realize the economic potential of gaming
• Ketagalen: Identity: a shared indigenous, and LGBT problem
• Global Taiwan Institute: Strategic Ambiguity under the new president
• 40.6% satisfied with Tsai

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