Zogby has a new poll on Taiwan independence beliefs among the Taiwanese. The press release says:Zogby Poll: 85% in Taiwan Support Petitioning U.N. for Membership
Survey finds most view themselves as Taiwanese and believe Taiwan is an independent nation, not a part of China
The vast majority of adults in Taiwan – 85% – believe the government of Taiwan should petition the United Nations for membership and 89% believe Taiwan should be offered membership in the U.N., a new Zogby International poll shows.
As Taiwan prepares to hold a referendum March 22 on whether to seek U.N. membership, 89% of respondents believe the United States should support Taiwan in its effort to gain recognition by the U.N. Nearly as many (80%) agree the U.S. should openly oppose China’s position against Taiwan’s membership in the U.N. and help Taiwan establish U.N. membership. While 75% rate the relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan as favorable, just 30% say the same about Taiwan’s relationship with China, which claims sovereignty over the self-ruled island that sits off the shore of Asia between the East and South China seas.
Since the early 1990s, Taiwan has applied for membership but has never won it because of opposition from Beijing, which, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, holds veto power over such applications.
The vast majority (97%) said they agree that when deciding whether or not to offer membership, the United Nations should treat all countries equally and without discrimination and 96% believe that on the issue of U.N. participation, the U.S. should respect every country’s right to membership based on the principles of democracy and self-determination. Zogby International conducted a telephone survey of 1,072 adults in Taiwan from Feb. 19 to Feb. 21, 2008, which carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey was commissioned by Professor Fu-Tong Hsu, Ph.D, and former chairman of the Taiwan Renaissance Foundation.
Nearly two-thirds (63%) said they view the current status of Taiwan as a sovereign and independent country, while 31% said they view Taiwan’s sovereignty as undetermined – just 5% believe China’s sovereignty extends over Taiwan. When specifically asked whether they agree that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent nation, 89% agreed.
Three in four of those surveyed – 79% – said they support using the name “Taiwan” to refer to what they consider to be an independent and sovereign country. Seventy-seven percent said they support the government’s policy of using the name “Taiwan” when applying for U.N. membership, while nearly as many (64%) said they would be supportive of the government using the name “Republic of China” in when applying for membership.
Most of those surveyed (71%) said they would describe themselves as Taiwanese when speaking with someone from another country, such as an American or European – just 5% said they would say they were Chinese and 21% said they would identify themselves as being both Chinese and Taiwanese.
The survey also finds that more than half (53%) believe Japan is Taiwan’s closest ally in the region, with 82% who rate the relationship between Taiwan and Japan favorably.
For a full look at the methodology, see this page at the Zogby site. The report was commissioned by the head of the Taiwan National Congress, an umbrella organization of about 20 pro-independence groups (Taipei Times article from 2007 on them), Dr. Hsu Fu-tong.
A separate data file I obtained observed that only 53% in the 18-29 group believe Taiwan is independent, while in the 50-59 group, 72% do. Instead, the 18-29 group is more likely to believe that Taiwan's status is undetermined (42%). China is lowest in favorability among the four nations that Zogby asked about. Of the 68% who answered NO when asked if Taiwan was part of China, in a follow-up question aimed at that group, 77% of the NO-s agreed that Taiwan was part of some looser conception of China.
Zogby's findings on the young go a long way to explain some of their apparently contradictory positions in politics. Precisely because they see themselves as Taiwanese, they feel comfortable voting for whatever party. They also show that Taiwanese have a number of different responses to the issues of Taiwan's sovereignty, and are quite nuanced in how they view the relationship between Taiwan's cultural debt to China and whether that cultural debt translates into PRC sovereignty.
[Taiwan]
15 comments:
Very good Michael. I appreciate you sharing your conclusions from the unpublished data file. Any chance you can publish it?
I too am surprised that the young are apparently the *least* obsessed by Taiwanese nationalism. I'm not sure that your theory (that they're simply more confident about being Taiwanese) is accurate.
The younger generation have grown up in an era in which they've been explicitly told, year after year, that their identity/freedom is threatened by China. It's very surprising that this hasn't taken hold. Instead, the older generations who were explicitly told, year after year, that their identity is *tied* to China seem to be the greatest proponents of an independent Taiwanese identity.
Is it possible that propaganda simply doesn't work...? And in fact, has the inverse effect?
CCT, I'm a little tired of the way you constantly twist things, as well as the impoverished and slanted understanding of Taiwan and Taiwan nationalism you evince. It's impossible to respond to comments that include loaded phrases like "obsessed by Taiwan nationalism." The only obsessive nationalism in this equation is the Chinese one, which says it is OK to murder people and possess their territory. You'd have to be quite sick and obsessed to either advocate for that or to support it.
The idea that people are "told" and then they respond to that "telling" is pure pro-authoritarian propaganda -- not to mention deeply dehumanizing. Please figure out how to construct discussions of Taiwan identity that are not dominated by the perspectives of the butchers in Beijing and the sick, confused people who support them. I expect nuance and balance in your next comment here.
Michael
To follow on, I'm not going to permit this blog's comments section to become like the politics forum at Forumosa, rendered useless by the constant assaults of the pro-Beijing trolls.
Michael
You the man, Michael.
I'm encouraged by the Zogby polls showing the Taiwanese do have some pride in themselves and their identity.
I am a little concerned about poll results on the younger segment. Is there a certain level of identify uncertainty or just apathy in the younger population?
I'm wondering if the younger population is more influenced by the media, which is in turn more pro-China/KMT, IMHO. China's rise during their formative years may be another factor. Or, is it that a significant percentage of this population found better job opportunities in China or plan to find jobs there? This may lead to more Chinese influence.
This is yet another reason to be wary of KMT's common China market proposal.
cct, the younger generation still received education heavily influenced by KMT ideology. The same thing went on with the mass media and popular culture. However, at the same time, they took the hard-won political freedom for granted. They never had any chance to experience the good ol' days when not taking up chinese identity meant being persecuted, jailed, or even executed. Therefore, in this free country, many youngsters are free to choose, they make their choices based on influences from KMT-approved education/mass media/popular culture...hmm and you have count in peer pressure factors too.
Michael, thank you for that decision! You previously were allowing a lot of comments that really didn't contribute much to the discussion...
With regret, I must point out a very sad New York Times article that made the website frontpage: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/12/world/asia/12taiwan.html?hp
I'd really like to know who fed Edward Wong that angle, because the domestic media sure doesn't think this election has much to do with independence.
Good. CCT does present a special problem because he is a well-informed troll and often makes good arguments.
It's interesting to juxtapose the Zogby poll information with the following claim in the NY Times election preview today:
No matter who wins Taiwan’s fiercely contested presidential election on March 22, the fervent independence movement that has so agitated relations with mainland China in recent years seems destined to suffer a significant setback.
The Zogby poll findings are very close to my understanding of the state of Taiwanese identity and nationalism: strong and getting stronger.
Nice to see the Zogby poll.
I was reading this related bit (from 1994) last night:
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[Writer Ryotaro] Shiba. Also the word `Zhongguoren' [Chinese] is confusing. When Singapore's leader, Lee Kuan Yew went to Australia, he was reported to have said that `just as today's Australians do not consider themselves British, we are not Chinese. We are Singaporeans.'
Germans and Swedes are both of Germanic origin. But when Germans go to Sweden they do not sell goods by saying, `you and I are both of Germanic origin, aren't we?' Spanish people do not go to France and claim friendship based on their shared Roman origin. Taiwan is the country for Taiwanese, even though we are Han people.
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Even with those last four overreaching words (most Taiwanese have [some] aboriginal DNA), isn't that a refreshing removal of the usual frame in which that discussion is usually wrongly placed?
As for Edward Wong (mentioned by a commenter above), he (Wong) sounds like he's been smoking the journa-ma-listic crack of people like Robert Ross, which Michael previously described thusly:
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Among the hundreds of articles on Taiwan I have discussed on this blog over the last couple of years, this piece of dreck from Robert Ross, For China, How To Manage Taiwan?, represents the absolute nadir of writing on the island and its future in a major media publication.
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Or maybe Wong could be described as a "parachute journalist" [definition]:
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36 Hours in Taipei, Taiwan
[... ] With interest in mainland China surging, Taipei [...] offers a look at a different side of China [...]. Here is a Chinese culture (some contend that it is uniquely Taiwanese) that practices bare-knuckled democracy and has preserved traditions thousands of years old in a way that was impossible to do on the mainland.
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Tim Maddog
First, let's please email the Zogby poll to Angus Reid and NY Times!
Re the younger generations of Taiwan: Could it be that their generation doesn't feel directly threatened by anyone (KMT, Japanese occupiers)?
The threat of China may seem indirect and abstract to them. They see their pop idols (Jay Chou, SHE, A-mei, etc) thriving there. They can contact peers on the Mainland through the internet and forge relationships if they want. Perhaps they or their family members work on the mainland and return each week; business as usual (90% of my business clients do).
And their day-to-day lives are certainly more focused on making a living, going to school and shopping, and worrying about careers, bills and military service than worrying about missles and heated rhetoric.
They might see politics as an old man's game; a distant and irrelevant thing; a bunch of old fogeys beating each other up from time to time; a bunch who are out of touch with the daily lives of younger people.
And I agree with you, Michael: they are Taiwanese-proud-- not in some bombastic, flag-waving, love-it-or-leave-it way-- but in a matter-of-fact, sure-as-the-sun-rises-each-day way. Taiwanese (of all stripes and persuasions) feel that way, I think. At least, I've yet to meet anyone who says otherwise.
Perhaps this younger generation doesn't feel any more threatened than ours (North Americans) did during the Cold War. Yes, the threat was real enough in terms of missiles and threats of war, but the threat seemed so distant, and life went on.
I would certainly be interested to learn more about Taiwan's under-30 generation...
I am with Feiren on this one. They don't feel more "Chinese" than anyone else. They just dont feel as threatened by China.
This is good and bad. Good because it means that the feeling of ties with the mainland have been altered to the point at which only a campaign by a party that would seek to reeducate them would reverse the trend. For all the KMT snuggle up with the PRC, I don't see them taking up this type of reeducation anytime soon.
This is bad because anyone who has seen the amount of attention the PRC media gives to "retaking Taiwan" and emphasising dubious claims, and has seen the effect on the population, most of whom really don't have a clue why many can't accept their point of view, knows that the thing that the Taiwanese have the most to be afraid of is China, especially in light of the military build-up across the strait. The younger generation can't imagine being forced to do something they dont want to do. And that is very dangerous.
Thanks, Thomas, Feiren, Richard, and anon.
I think the younger generation will slowly wake up as they get older and have more stake in things.
Another issue is if Ma wins, what will the KMT and Bejing do? Taiwan independence is created by the colonialism of the Chinese. How will the KMT address the Taiwan identity without sparking independence feeling? Ironically, a KMT victory might be good for independence while being bad for the DPP....time for observers, as the Wong piece shows, to stop equating independence with the DPP.
Michael
We call this (the fact that younger generations don't feel threaten by China) as "Cooking frogs with cold water" (冷水煮青蛙) --
If you cook frogs with boiling water, they feel the heat and all are eager to jump out. But if you start the cooking with cold water, the frogs don't feel the heat right away so they all stay in the water to their own death.
Older generations feel the heat, 'cos they know how it feels. Younger generations embrace the warm water and mistake it as an benefit to their lives.
Michael:>>> Ironically, a KMT victory might be good for independence while being bad for the DPP<<<<
Interesting. When Ah-Bian was first elected the president back in 2000, many Taiwanese American in USA suddenly didn't know how to (or even if need to) continue the fight for Taiwan Independence. The student organizations (for pro-Taiwan Taiwanese) in US university started to complain that new comers from Taiwan have lost the enthusiasm to push for TI. We suspected that KMT's stepping down caused people to lose the fighting target and thus became aimless.
Some joked that maybe if KMT gets the power back again we would know what to fight against.
I believe it all comes from a misconcept that "independence = DPP", as you pointed out.
Isn't this a modern version of "Cooking frogs with cold water?"
I am curious though, what percentage of the 85% mentioned in the poll would actually vote yes on the upcoming referendums. The feeling I get talking to my peers (ages 20 - 30) is that while pretty much all of them agree with Taiwan deserving to join the UN, probably only half of them would vote for it in the referendums.
There is an unfortunate perception amongst many of them rooted solely from a domestic politics standpoint. A disturbing number of them don't seem to consider that not voting in the referendums, or voting no, would have no impact on the external perception of what the people of Taiwan think.
The view is best summed up as: "Yeah we think that, but saying so in this referendum thing is different..."
I think lots of young Taiwanese males are bitter about their compulsory military service, from what I hear, and that affects how serious they are about independence. Many know that to get independence they would have to win a war, and after seeing the quality of Taiwan's military, they are skeptical about that possibility. Taiwanese young ladies in Taipei are, invariably in my experience, gung ho about independence and much more likely to support a war with China, although many don't.
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