Saturday, March 15, 2008

Jamestown Foundation Backgrounder on Election

Michael Hsiao, the well-known sociologist and advisor to administrations in Taiwan, has a nifty overview of the election and the two candidates at the Jamestown Foundation. Among the highlights:

To Ma, the issue of Taiwan’s “national” identity is more complicated and still burdened by the legacy of the Chinese civil war between the KMT and the CCP. In Ma’s mind, only the Republic of China is sovereign—not Taiwan. At the beginning of Ma’s campaign, he claimed that Taiwan is ROC, but when he was questioned by the conservative KMT old guard he quickly qualified his statement by saying that ROC is not (just) Taiwan. Ma not only separates Taiwan from ROC, but also distinguishes CCP’s PRC from China. He wants to negotiate with China on the basis of the so-called “1992 consensus” and on the condition of what he coined as “mutual non-denial” [3]. When facing DPP’s challenges that he is too pro-China and not pro-Taiwan enough, Ma then hastens to state that in his term as president, he will not engage in “unification talk” with the PRC [4].

Hsiao neatly captures the way Ma changes his position depending on who he is talking to. Also of interest is his open reference to KMT-CCP cooperation, a rarity in presentations in the US:

Since 2004, a visible rift emerged between the new ruling DPP administration and the new KMT opposition on their respective China policies. The KMT began criticizing the DPP for being too reckless to maintain peaceful cross-Strait relations; at the same time, Lee Teng-Hui’s pro-autonomy—if not pro-independence—position was drastically denounced by KMT’s newly-consolidated power center under Lien Chan. Nevertheless, KMT did not formulate or promote a radically different China strategy between 2000 and 2004, which is because Lien Chan hoped to vie for the presidency of Taiwan, and in planning, did not wish to be seen as being too pro-China. Doing so would have been too politically risky, especially when weighed against the rising wave of Taiwanese national identity. After being defeated again in 2004, however, Lien Chan and the KMT took a wholesale anti-DPP policy by openly advocating a pro-China and more reconciliatory position, starting off by initiating several landmark visits by KMT high officials to China. The most significant representation of this shift is Lien Chan’s official visit to China in late April 2005. The meeting in the Great Hall of the People between Lien Chan and Hu Jintao marked the emerging political alliance of the KMT and the CCP—two historical archenemies—to boycott the DPP’s agenda. Lien himself even confessed that his visit aimed to seek the third KMT-CCP cooperation to contain Taiwan independence [1]. Since 2005 to the present, Taiwan-China relations entered an unprecedented era where the DPP, KMT and CCP are contesting one another in a very open, politicized, complicated and sensitive manner for the vote of the Taiwanese people.

Happy reading!

6 comments:

Jason said...

Oh, fer chrissake... there's a picture of Ma throwing down the Asian Sign of Being photographed in the brief!

Unfortunately, Hsieh draws attention to himself by his freakishly short stature. He's the Dennis Kucinich of Taiwan... minus the hot wife!

Just get it done on Saturday and let us go back to sleep already.

Anonymous said...

I thought this was a very balanced article detailing each candidate's stance and what choice the voters will make for Taiwan's future path when they vote in the election. I thought the writer sorted out the issues succintly with revealing insights. Beyond the political fray and rhetorics, I think the writer hits the mark as to what this election is all about.

Anonymous said...

I just thought it's funny that both Frank Hsieh and Chen Shui-bian are short in stature. My cross country coach is also short, but very passionate, outspoken, and spirited. Maybe short people learned to be tough and not be shortchanged by their lack of imposing stature.

People should just lay off Chen. I think he has done his best to help smooth the transition of the economy going from low-end manufacturing to high-tech and service industry. His former supporters are also making too much of an unreasonable expectations, which I think are common given that this is the first transition of power in Taiwan. But really, how much can Chen do when pulled at his legs by an opposition-dominated legislature, threats and oppositions from US and China, and an economy in transition faced with a huge economically rising neighbor?

Also the president should have veto power like in the US to force negotiations between parties. Without veto power, the president is really a lame duck.

Also I think that either Ma's campaign team is really incompetent or Hsieh is just too clean for them to find any dirt. This goes to show that anything bad you've done in the past really comes back to haunt you. Let that be a lesson of morals.

Tommy said...

Hehe.... I heard they constructed a platform for him to stand on at the debates so that he would be the same height as Ma.

Mad Minerva said...

Thanks! Not that I need something ELSE to read on top of all my grad school stuff, but thanks! ;-)

Given the large amount of terrible coverage and half-baked "analyses" of Taiwan in general, it's nice to have something that tries to be balanced and objective.

Xie-xie, Michael!

Anonymous said...

Scores of Taiwanese-Canadians travel for vote
Kate Webb , Canwest News Service
Published: Saturday, March 15, 2008

has this confusing quote:

"Taiwanese society is very divided right now," said James Chou, chairman of the Taiwanese Canadian Cultural Society.

"About half of the people support the (People's Republic of China) and the other half has very strong grassroots emotions about the land of their ancestors."

AP's key "facts" is also tainted by Truth.

Key facts about Taiwan's election
By The Associated Press
Article Launched: 03/15/2008 10:09:21 AM PDT

WHERE: Taiwan, a democracy over which China still claims sovereignty, is electing a president Saturday, March 22.

THE ISSUES: The economy predominates, but also important is what the two candidates largely agree on: After years of friction with China over whether or not Taiwan is independent, the island needs better relations with its giant neighbor.

THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON: Taiwan going independent could spark a war with China and drag in the U.S., so the U.S. will be happy to see the issue go into deep freeze.