Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Early polls taipei race

The Kuomintang News organ reports....
According to the latest opinion poll conducted by Apple Daily on the support ratings of candidates in the Taipei City mayoral election, Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), a pro-Green camp independent, leads the KMT's Sean Lien (連勝文), son of former Vice President Lien Chan (連戰), by approximately 11 percentage points (47.35% vs. 36.73%), while Sean Lien leads DPP legislator Pasuya Yao (姚文智) by 41.96% to 39.27%. Yao won the DPP's first-stage primary for the Taipei mayoral election in a public opinion poll on May 14.

According to an opinion poll conducted by TVBS, Sean Lien trails Ko by 6 percentage points (39% vs. 45%) but leads Pasuya Yao by 12 percentage points (46% vs. 34%)
Well well. This doesnt really mean anything. The "independent" candidate Ko I expect to crash and burn over some ill-thought or too-honest remark, while Pasuya Yao is simply an attention troll. Polls like this reflect public dissatisfaction with Sean Lien, who is getting this position because he is KMT royalty and not because he put in years of work in the trenches on behalf of the Party. Likely the money from A Certain Party will roll down to the precinct captains, the votes will be properly corralled and disciplined, and Lien will win in a total travesty. Don't expect too much from Taipei....

UPDATED: A reader observes that the polls are probably matched for ethnicity to the national ratio of about 15% mainlander, rather than the 30% that Taipei hosts. That may account for the discrepancy. Another reader pointed out that lowball polls in Blue papers are a way of motivating KMT voters. However, Apple Daily had generally the same numbers.
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Anonymous said...

Well, Ko's been running for a good 9 months at this point and he's managed to stay afloat. I imagine the election will at least be close.

Having the KMT waste the Taipei mayoral post - the best position to groom officials for the Presidency - on awful princelings like Sean Lien with zero national appeal is a net positive, though. The fact that they only have one viable candidate for the 2016 election is in part thanks to wasting the position on the likes of Hau Long Bin.

Anonymous said...

Jeez... everyone knows Lien isn't on the ticket based on merit, the guy isn't even qualified to be the knob polisher at Ikea's meatball cafe.

For once I would like to see the KMT voters do the right thing FOR THEIR COUNTRY and vote the most intelligence person into position. (KO). Like you MT, I see Yao as someone with no talent. He seemed to be a goof at the GIO. Maybe I am wrong, I don't really know him except what I see on TV.

Anonymous said...

How did Chen Shui-bian win the city?

Anonymous said...

I don't waste my time and energy on Taipei. It's KMT's home base, period.

My energy and time are best spent on Taichung where Mr. Lin is a worthy quality candidate and, at the same time, has a real chance to win.

Better give Mr. Lin a good push than waste time on Ko's nonsenses.

Michael Turton said...

""ell, Ko's been running for a good 9 months at this point and he's managed to stay afloat. I imagine the election will at least be close.""

The real scrutiny hasnt started. Hopefully Ko has learned.

Yes, excellent observation -- Lien will never be nationally popular.


TaiwanJunkie said...

Chen won Taipei because the pan - blues were split between two candidates.

As for Ko, he is more of a visionary while Yao is just a technocrat.

I have never seen another candidate inspire more feeling of hate and annoyance within me than Lien. I would literally give up all hope on Taiwan if Lien actually manage to get elected.

Lin should have Taichung in the bag.

Any insights on the DPP guy for Taiyuan?

Anonymous said...

I know this post is about mayoral candidates for Taipei, but I was wondering if anyone has an impression or opinion on William Lai (current Tainan City mayor) as a possible presidential contender in 2016. How does he compare with others (like say Eric Chu)?

Unknown said...

In case anyone has forgotten what kind of bastard Hao Longbin's dad is and has always been...