Saturday, January 14, 2012

Election Day

Lee Teng-hui speaks at the rally, courtesy of reader Michael Gruber.

To watch the vote count on the net, Sanli is here.

In a few hours we'll know, but for now enjoy some links. Lee Tenghui came out yesterday to speak at the big rally. It was an emotional moment, nicely scripted and choreographed:
“I don’t have much time left. Please support Tsai. Make her the first woman president in Taiwan who will make this country a model of democracy. Now, I put Taiwan’s destiny in your hands,” he said.
Lee is one of the great figures in the growth of 20th century democracy, in a very different way on par with people like Havel and Mandela. If Taiwan's democracy actually does change China, he will have left a towering legacy.

Meanwhile former AIT head Douglas Paal, known for unabashed anti-DPP views during his tenure and now here to perform a dog and pony show for the KMT, found AIT distancing itself from him:
AIT Director William Stanton called off a meeting with Douglas Paal yesterday morning, a source said, which was later confirmed by the Prospect Foundation, an institution affiliated with the KMT that invited Paal to visit Taiwan
Thanks, AIT. Although some aspects of Paal's analysis are dead on, his wholly uninformed and partisan viewpoint is revealed in comments like:
Paal also criticized the “Taiwan consensus” proposed by Tsai, saying the idea was “a way of saying [that Tsai has] no desire to reach cross-strait agreements.”
But enough of Paal. The Nelson Report passed this around:
Note: no details to add on the Taiwan election except that results are expected shortly after breakfast tomorrow (Saturday, DC time) and to report that serious analysts are predicting a very strong chance that challenger Tsai Ing-wen will regain the presidency for the DPP from KMT incumbent Ma Ying-jeou. Stay tuned. Sunday morning (9 am DC time) your Editor will be on CCTV-Beijing, assigned topic the Obama defense "Asia Pivot"...we'll see. Monday is a Federal Holiday so no Report that day.
Wonder who these serious experts are who think Tsai will win. Ballots and Bullets hosts the usual excellent stuff. Stephane Corcuff on identifying consensus in the Blue-Green continuum, Lee Teng-hui's last hurrah, and Jon Sullivan's great piece on Mikael Mattlin's book Taiwan's Politicized Society, which argues that Taiwan's democracy is still a veneer, because the KMT has never permitted full consolidation.

Also see longtime Taiwan scholar Richard Kagan on the election. Frozen Garlic's best flags of the year! And see his Quick Thoughts, lots of good observations. BBC's China media monitoring reports that Beijing has ordered a blackout on news and commentary on Taiwan's election. How the CCP must hate Taiwan.

Finally, a CS Monitor piece cites me on why the election is more sedate on the whole (except for the last week!).

Check Google search, Taiwan's election is right there!

No predictions here. It's going to be close. Good luck to all.
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.


Anonymous said...

Doesn't look good for Tsai, 20% of the votes tallied and she's only trailing more and more on every channal, even STV showing massive lead for Ma.

Wait till the final tally, but this is really close to my expectation.

Frank said...

Not looking too good. At least the sheeple won't have anyone to blame after they discover that Ma is giving Taiwan to the Mainland on a silver platter.

paul said...

it's weird tho because on ettv america's website she's ahead by several points and their tallies are higher compared to the other taiwan cable news channels. do they have more info or something?