Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Study Argues What I've been saying for a year and a half

A new study at the US National Defense University catches up to what I've been saying since Ma's "peace in our time" approach was implemented. The TT says:
A new study by a China security expert at the US National Defense University cautioned that there might be a distinct downside to deeper cross-strait rapprochement between Taiwan and China.

Closer ties between the two sides could raise the prospect of “fundamental changes in China’s security challenges,” its author Michael Glosny said.

Glosny said that while other countries would be relieved by the rapprochement, many would also worry that a rising China no longer constrained by a focus on Taiwan would use its increased power to “challenge their interests elsewhere in Asia.”
Yes, it is indeed a brilliant insight that peace in the Taiwan Strait will simply lead to more tension elsewhere, because tension is I noted 18 months ago:
The other lesson to be learned here is the failure to make the cross-regional connections between Beijing's expansionist policies in the Strait and elsewhere. The election of Ma Ying-jeou did not 'reduce tension.' Rather, the KMT's move to put Taiwan into China's orbit, thus 'reducing Taiwan-China tensions', has given China the confidence and opportunity to ramp up tension elsewhere.

Tensions are not reduced. They are merely displaced. And the more tension is 'reduced' here in the Beijing-Taipei, the more it will appear elsewhere. Because the cause of "tension" isn't Taiwan's democracy, but China's expansionism.
Where's the article on me in the Taipei Times? :)

The authors of the study appear to believe that the tension in the area is caused by China, which is the correct belief. Let's hope this realization is currently sweeping our analyst class. It should be clear to all observers that the problems between the DPP Administration and Beijing were not caused by Chen "provoking" China but by China's demand to annex Taiwan. Hopefully the realization that China's territorial demands are the source of tension in its relationships with other nations will begin to include Taiwan.

Another observation: because China is the source of the problem, only change in China can bring peace. Right now, unless China changes its policies, we are headed for a series of wars along its frontiers. How can we get China to change its policies and attitudes?

REF: Original study here.
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Anonymous said...

The real tension will be when food riots begin in the PRC....I give it about a month before we start seeing outbreaks.

Yep, MT, you are right. You have been prescient all along and I thank you for all the effort you put into this blog to educate the people who give a damn.

Hans said...

"How can we get China to change its policies and attitudes?"

What about getting the pro-Taiwan/US candidates elected as president and officials, and use the people's voice from Taiwan as a source of pressure!

Anonymous said...

I *distinctly* remember Ma's 3% of GDP for defense promise, time and time again.

It's time someone called him out on this in public, and in a way that he can't dodge the question. After he hammered CSB in a public debate in 2006 about this very issue (declining defense spending,) there is no way Ma can be allowed to get off scot-free.

Anonymous said...

I suppose the only upside is that since Taiwan's GDP has been growing at a robust rate, that the % of GDP spent on defense will mathematically convert to a greater sum of money.

2% of a $350 billion GDP = $7 billion for defense.

2% of a $400 billion GDP = $8 billion for defense.

- Fox

Robert R. said...

Fox, the budget is fixed on a $ amount, not % of GDP.

Therefore, it's the % of GDP that will fall, not that funding will rise.

Anonymous said...

People, check out the defense spending of the PRC and the ROC stay from 1990 to 2010. Afterwards feel free to puke a bit. Militarily the ROC as A JOKE, at least in comparison.