Taiwan exports to China not getting boost like they should from ECFA

The CNA reports that ECFA isn't all it was meant to be for Taiwan's exports to China....who could have predicted that?

Although Taiwan has the advantage of tariff incentives in its trade with China, which South Korea and Japan do not have, those two countries still posted higher export growth rates than Taiwan during the first seven months of 2011, Vivien Liou, deputy editor-in-chief of the Taipei-based Business Weekly, said in a press conference in which the poll results were announced.

Between January and July this year, exports to China of the 539 items covered under the early harvest list totaled US$11.8 billion, up 14.4 percent from the same period of last year.

That was lower than the 17.5 percent compound annual growth of the same group of exports to China between 2006 and 2008, before the global economic tsunami hit, Liou said, and also poorer than other countries in the region without ECFA benefits.

According to the weekly's figures, Japan and South Korea saw exports of the same group of products to China grow at rates of 14.96 percent and 28.91 percent, respectively.

But exports of products covered by the ECFA did benefit to some extent, according to CNA calculations, based on Chinese customs and Business Weekly figures. ulations, based on Chinese customs and Business Weekly figures. Their 14.4 percent export growth to China was nearly double the 8.7 growth of exports from Taiwan that were not covered under the early harvest list.

Haha --- exports to China grew more rapidly under Chen Shui-bian than post-ECFA. That's actually to be expected -- as volume rises, relative gains become more difficult (it is very easy to grow 10% if your trade is only a million bucks, but if it is a billion, a 10% gain represents a much larger absolute figure that the economy must generate). China said that its data showed manufacturing expanding for the first time in four months; the recent slowdown in China is likely impacting Taiwan export growth more than ECFA. Another factor might be the appreciating yuan which is hitting re-export of Taiwan products imported into China for assembly.

Note that the data come from the PRC. I wondered why the CNA had calculated the data in such a strange way, so I bopped over to the MOEA website in Taiwan but the search interface is clunkier than a crippled elephant at a ballet try-out. Then I knew.....

The CNA piece also says:

Shih Hui-tzu, a researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, was quoted as saying that if South Korea, Taiwan's principal trade rival, were to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) with China, it would be "the most powerful rival" for the ECFA.

Shih also pointed out that it will be very difficult for Taiwan to sign FTAs with the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the United States in the short term, which means that the Chinese market, therefore, is "Taiwan's only chance to beat (South Korea)."

Taiwan's obsession with South Korea here is combined with the fear that dominates so many comparisons in Taiwan -- the fear of being weeded out of the competition, as well as the island nation's obsession with rankings. "We must beat South Korea!" as if somewhere, someone is keeping score.

Again one must ask: Where are the FTAs we were promised?
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Daily Links:

• Derecognize us? We'll call in your debt, you puny Caribbean state.
• Taiwan cycling festival starts Nov 6.
• After one media organ warned that South China Sea rivals should fear the sound of cannons, a  China newspaper says that China's neighbors should not take peaceful approach for granted. It's all pro forma appeals to nationalism, I'm sure.
• Taiwan, NZ considering trade agreement

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Ma continues to backpedal on Peace Treaty

Ma's "peace treaty" suggestion, which landed in the election environment like a corpse tossed into a besieged castle by a trebuchet, took place against a couple of interesting background events. First, Taiwan's top national security official observed yesterday that Taiwan-China relations are going to enter a more difficult period. With the easy economic stuff done, China will now become more assertive in pressing for political talks. Instabilities may result.

Second, Leon Pannetta praised China for its more restrained response to the F-16 upgrade sale to Taiwan, and said that the Adminstration had notified Beijing of what was going to take place. It is hard to think of a clearer illustration that tensions are (1) caused by Beijing and (2) totally under Beijing's control and (3) a calculated policy response and not some putative visceral reaction, aimed at US support for Taiwan and US analysts and observers. I suppose, though, it is too much to hope that the media will cease writing as if tensions occur without agents causing them, or that Taiwan is the cause of tensions between Beijing and Washington.

In any case, Taiwan's feckless President, Ma Ying-jeou, did some more backpedaling on the proposal for the peace treaty with China. Ma put forth the "ten guarantees" to show that public that he is serious about protecting Taiwan. Perhaps he's signalling to Beijing that they'd better invade because convincing the public is going to be quite difficult....

Ma explained that there are 10 guarantees serving as preconditions for the cautious consideration of a peace agreement. The first is maintaining the status quo of no unification, no independence and no use of force under the framework of the ROC Constitution, while promoting cross-strait exchanges based on the “1992 consensus,” which allows both sides to recognize “one China” but differ on its precise political definition.

Negotiating a cross-strait peace accord would only be possible when two prerequisites are met, Ma said—a high degree of domestic consensus and mutual trust between Taipei and Beijing.

It would also have to meet the true needs of the country, have strong public support and be supervised by the Legislature, he added.

“These three principles will not change, and the government will spare no effort to be as transparent as possible prior to and after negotiations so that the public will understand what actions are being taken,” Ma said.

In addition, talks on a peace agreement would have to ensure ROC sovereignty, Taiwan’s safety and prosperity, ethnic harmony and cross-strait peace, as well as a sustainable environment and just society, the president noted.

Ma referred to the 10 guarantees as “one framework, two prerequisites, three principles and four assurances.”

“It is not an easy task to fill the bill of the 10 guarantees. Therefore, a referendum would be necessary to confirm public opinion, and the government would only take action when the issue has strong public support,” Ma said.

Once again, I observe that the referendum is non-binding and will not take place on the treaty itself and is merely an assay of public opinion. Note that he does not say majority support merely strong public support (I can hear it now: "But we thought 27% was strong public support!!!??"). Note also that Ma's peace treaty is under the One China rubric, meaning that it would make Taiwan part of China. Not likely to play well with the voters. Though by setting up so many apparent roadblocks to a treaty, Ma hastens to assure voters that a peace treaty is unlikely. ROFL.

Unpopular and criticized even by media that support the KMT, the proposal also seemed to give Tsai a boost in the polls and in the prediction market. Not only did it remind voters that Ma thinks that Taiwan is part of China, his proposal for a referendum gave the DPP something to attack. The DPP responded by calling for an amendment to the referendum law to the public the right to oversee any changes in the sovereignty of Taiwan, enabling it to appear the enforcer of the status quo and democracy at the same time, while painting Ma as a radical seeking to overturn the current order by any means.

One observer argued that Ma was seeking to place the cross-strait relationship in the limelight since Tsai's steady chipping away at the KMT's handling of domestic economic issues was paying off. Yet the RDEC released a poll this week, from data collected in May, that says the public is not very satisfied with Ma's handling of cross-strait affairs, suggesting that the KMT may fare no better in that realm. The RDEC, by the way, is being folded into another gov't department next year. Hopefully its often interesting survey work will continue....

Ironically, Ma's call for a referendum on a peace treaty with China pretty much nullified all the arguments the KMT had made in its railing against a referendum on ECFA, as many commentators pointed out this week (Lin Cho-shui, for example), making the KMT look both clumsy and hypocritical. Gotta wonder what they were thinking in KMT land.....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Ma is Taiwanese Again II

A couple of months ago I observed how it is election time so Ma and the KMT will suddenly become Taiwanese again (keep that post in mind as you view this vid). This election video is a good example of how that propaganda works in practice. A friend of mine, discussing this KMT election video, pointed out the rip-offs of Island Etude, the film from a few years ago that popularized cycling in Taiwan and presented it as a Taiwan-centered activity, as well as the Seediq Bale poster glimpsed at the beginning. "Film and indigenous heritage are important symbolic battlegrounds in this election," he remarked. They are omnipresent in this video.

Love the opening of the deaf girl "listening" to musicians.

Several other items struck me -- the omnipresence of young people, who identify strongly with Taiwan and not at all with China, glimpses of the de facto national sport of bicycling with its connotations of status, leisure, and Taiwanese identity, and baseball, strongly associated in Taiwan with aborigines. Locations like one of the centers of Taiwan nationalism, Kaohsiung (with the big skyscraper shown a couple of times), and the east coast, strongly identified with Taiwan, and night markets. Backgrounds with Taipei 101 in soft focus. Traditional crafts like indigo dyeing. The cut flower export and fishing businesses, both identified with Taiwan. President Ma with rice farmers, every one in a traditional hat. There's even a group of women having a night out. One of the final scenes is in an old mainlander military village, now decked out in modern graffiti art.

What's not here: the island's tech and other export industries. What an interesting non-presence.

Truly a well done video with powerful use of local imagery to make a strong emotional appeal to local voters. Note that "being Taiwanese" is a requirement to getting elected; no one could get elected today by putting down Taiwan culture as the KMT used to do, routinely. Democracy has fostered a totally Taiwan identity that the KMT must appeal to in order to gain votes.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

What did Ma Actually Say about a referendum? It doesn't matter!

The international media -- who may well have been the target of Ma's proposal for a "peace treaty" -- making the Preznit and longtime democracy foe look like an advocate of "peace" -- can't seem to agree on what he said about a referendum.

The BBC:

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has said that he will not engage in peace talks with China unless voters give their approval in a referendum.

No hesitations, qualifications, or conditions. Ma "will not/unless".

Remember that Ma's original proposal did not call for a referendum and said that such a treaty would only be submitted to the legislature -- a KMT fief and likely to be one for the foreseeable future, meaning that the treaty would be free of public oversight. It seems likely that Ma's mention of the hated "referendum" was prompted only by the storm of criticism and a sudden plummet in the internal polling (though the other day the pro-KMT China Times published a poll saying that the treaty idea had strong support).  Thus AP reported:

On Thursday, Ma appeared to back off his original peace treaty declaration — at least to an extent.

"We will consider a referendum for the peace treaty," he said, justifying the new condition on the grounds that a treaty would have an even greater impact on Taiwan than the landmark trade deal it signed last year with Beijing.

Not only did they back off from rubber stamping a treaty, they also backed off from a firm date today.

This threw me for a loop for a moment:

Yes, TaiwanNews has AP's report presented as if from AFP. *sigh*

Meanwhile AFP actually reported that Ma straightforwardly said that "Referendum a must for China treaty: Taiwan leader":

"We will put the matter to vote if we are going to seek the cross-strait peace treaty in the future. We will not sign the treaty if it is not approved in a referendum," Ma told reporters.

Bloomberg similar made the referendum similarly unconditional.

The Taipei Times report today, Friday Oct 21, showed the reality of how nuanced Ma's position really is:

“If we decided to proceed with the peace agreement, a referendum would be held first to gauge public opinion about the issue, and we won’t sign the agreement if it fails the referendum ... This is to show both our determination and caution in handling such a pact,” Ma told a news conference at the Presidential Office.

Note that referendum will not be a binding referendum on the "peace treaty" itself. It will merely be an assay of public opinion prior to the talks with no binding effect. Ma knows exactly what he is doing. The President could then frame a referendum, passed or failed, any way he liked. Or ignore it completely.

Because they've already done that.

Remember when they said ECFA wouldn't be signed ("conditions wouldn't be ripe") unless it had the support of 60% of the public? (here if you can't). Then that didn't matter, and they signed it anyway, while saying it had strong public support even though few independent polls showed that ECFA had even managed to garner outright majority support, let alone 60% support. Taiwan has already meekly submitted once to an agreement crucial to the island's control over its own future signed with no majority support. Why not again?

Cue the peace agreement shock doctrine: "If we don't have peace, we won't get FTAs! If we don't have peace, we'll have war! If we don't have peace, our exports will collapse! We'll be marginalized without peace!" And don't forgot that Nobel Peace Prize!
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Daily Links:

• A good piece in The Diplomat: Ma Feeling the Heat. Taiwan is undergoing the same process that brought out the Occupy Wall Street and other movements around the globe: rising wealth concentration and falling real incomes:
  

  But even when Taiwan's GDP grew and labour productivity rose 16 percent in 2010, labour costs for employers fell 11 percent, an indication that workers weren’t receiving a fair share of the gains they were helping create. Real wages have actually fallen by about 4 percent from 12 years ago, and that, coupled with soaring house prices and rising unemployment have left many first time voters in particular out in the cold.

• China warns that trade will suffer if pro-Taiwan side wins in election (Taipei Times report)
• The Writing Baron on Mona Rao and Seediq Bale. Excellent, as usual.
• Lao Ren Cha on getting a CELTA pass A
• The uniformly excellent James Holmes in The Diplomat says China is The Scorpion of the fable.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Ma Proposes, the DPP Disposes

Today's you-can't-make-this-stuff-up moment: Heritage scholar Walter Lohman found this gem in a 2008 State Dept report by Kerry Dumbaugh:

Apparently mindful of its previous experience with the 11th Panchen Lama, Beijing late in 2007 took steps designed to solidify its future control over the selection process of Tibetan lamas. On August 3, 2007, the State Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA) issued a set of regulations, effective September 1, 2007, that require all Tibetan lamas wishing to reincarnate to obtain prior government approval through the submission of a “reincarnation application.” In a statement accompanying the regulations, SARA called the step “an important move to institutionalize management on reincarnation of living Buddhas.”

No reincarnation without a license. Can messiahs resurrect without a permit?

Speaking of Tibet and broken treaties, the headline dominator this week was President Ma's proposal for a "peace" agreement between Taiwan and China. The DPP responded (Taipei Times):

Speaking as the head of her party, Tsai, the DPP’s presidential candidate in January’s election, told a press conference that Ma’s proposal was “irresponsible and impetuous” and that it amounted to the manipulation of a highly sensitive political issue to cover up his administration’s failures, as well as a bargaining chip that benefits his presidential campaign.

“It’s a pity that President Ma, as a national leader, has put the nation’s future at risk with this reckless initiative and pushed the future of Taiwanese into a political danger zone,” Tsai said.

....

A DPP Central Standing Committee resolution yesterday said the proposal exposed Taiwanese to four serious risks — the sacrifice of Taiwan’s sovereignty, a change in the “status quo” across the Taiwan Strait, the jeopardizing of Taiwan’s democratic values and damage to the nation’s strategic depth in bilateral negotiations — Tsai said.

The initiative could make the cross-strait situation a “domestic” issue by agreeing to the “one China” principle, she said, as well as going to the negotiating table without a public mandate and a national consensus.

Tsai cited the 1951 peace deal between Tibet and China as an example of Beijing’s lack of credibility as a signatory.

Ma's move appeared to be a misstep, since it attracted criticism from all sides and this week he's been forced to defend it in public. Ma placed the "peace" proposal in his usual context of "national dignity" by which he means the ROC virtual state, not Taiwan. Hence, a peace agreement negotiated by the KMT would most likely include Taiwan in China, which has always been the goal of the KMT. Once again Ma raises doubts among independent voters and Light Blues by unnecessarily calling for another lurch toward China.

AP had some good coverage of the domestic tumult:

Ma’s declaration was lambasted by the opposition, which saw it as a boon to its chances in January’s presidential elections because it appeared to make Ma vulnerable to charges that he might be willing to compromise Taiwan’s sovereignty. It was also criticized by normally supportive media outlets as an unnecessary embrace of an issue that lacks popularity among Taiwan’s mostly China-wary population.

“Swing voters have doubts about the treaty,” wrote the pro-Ma United Daily News on Thursday, adding that recent government polls showed a firm bias in favor of Taiwan’s political status quo.

The China Times, another pro-Ma paper, likened opening peace treaty negotiations with the mainland to “plunging into a trap set up by Beijing.”

The China Times prides itself on being stuffily pro-KMT, but UDN is basic frothing at the mouth for the KMT. For Ma to lose both with this proposal may show a decidedly out-of-touch campaign team. Ma backed away by saying that his government would "consider a referendum" (they mean "think about it for a second before rejecting it forever"), a significant backpedal since the KMT hates the idea of national level referendums, since they tend to reify Taiwan as an independent polity in its own right.

Ma has to please his allies in Beijing, so this may be a sop tossed in the direction of the CCP. He may well be setting the stage for political talks in his second term, but in the short term the proposal appears to have helped the DPP. Though without reliable political polls, it is difficult to say for certain.

Peace proposals are old hat in elections, dating back to James Soong's 50 year peace proposal and before. Soong's proposal included a kind of EU-framework under which Taiwan would recognize itself as part of China. Like Ma today, Soong defended his proposal as aligned with the mainstream opinion in Taiwan. His proposal included an escape clause -- President Ma's does not appear to.
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Daily Links:

• Speaking of China keeping agreements, it still blocks the websites of many US businesses despite its commitments under the WTO. It's time to rethink our trade with China.
• US National Security advisor Thomas Donilon off to China this week "amid rising tensions." Wait... if the arms sale was such a great idea, how come tensions are rising? Donilon is identified by some as the source of the disreputable Financial Times hack on Tsai Ing-wen. If so, I hope Beijing shits all over him, so he can understand how the Dragon Throne rewards those who serve it.
• Taiwan's E Sun bank expands across Asia.
• Taiwan rues west's fixation on PLA power.
• March 1946: how Japanese residents of Danshui were repatriated.
• Trade numbers worse than expected: implications.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Paper on Parade: Emerson Niou: The China Factor in Taiwan Politics

United Daily News, the pro-KMT paper, passed around another opinion poll showing a large Ma Ying-jeou lead, by ~9 points if Soong is in the race. As we saw last week when Global Views shockingly shut down its presidential election polling, GV's head said that the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen leads President Ma 4-6% in the polls. Polls from pro-KMT media that show large leads for the President appear to exist to create a sense of inevitability. As a reporter remarked, it will now be difficult to write about Ma's standing in the polls, since for the next 90 days reliable poll data will be hard to come buy.

Speaking of polls, Emerson Niou's recent paper, The China Factor in Taiwan Politics, flew across my desk this week. It was given at a conference in Japan and is still very much a work in progress, but it contains a rich array of data analysis bearing on the question of which voters pick what candidates and why. Niou is the principal investigator of the Taiwan National Security Survey for the NCCU Election Study Center, from which the data is drawn.

Niou argues, as many of us have observed, that the usual Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) and similar polls seldom set down conditions for their questions -- they don't ask people questions like "would you support independence if Taiwan had US support? If China didn't threaten Taiwan?" The TNSS data contains such queries. Here are four items (pro-independence answers in Green):

Q1. If the act of declaring independence will cause Mainland China to attack Taiwan, do you favor or not favor Taiwan independence?

Not Favor: 60.8%
Favor: 30.5%
NA: 8.7

Q2. If the act of declaring independence will not cause Mainland China to attack Taiwan, do you favor or not favor Taiwan independence?

Not Favor: 18.4%
Favor: 74.1%
NA: 7.5%

Q3. If great political, economic, and social disparity exists between Mainland China and Taiwan, do you favor or not favor Taiwan unifying with China?

Not Favor: 76.5%
Favor: 16.4% NA:
7.1%

Q4. If only small political, economic, and social disparity exists between Mainland China and Taiwan, do you favor or not favor Taiwan unifying with China?

Not Favor: 56.4%
Favor: 36.4%
NA: 7.2%

I'd be curious to see how the terminology -- was 中國 or 大陸 used? -- affects the answer -- but that aside,  question number 2 really shows how powerful support for independence is in Taiwan, and how important the China military threat is in creating support for the KMT and reducing support for independence, a conclusion Niou also indicates later in the paper. Question 4 is also interesting -- independence is about perceptions of shared identity, and even with economic and social conditions in China similar to those in Taiwan, most people still prefer independence.

Further questions were directed at the perception of the China threat and the perception of US support. Niou writes:

Tables 4a and 4b reveal that perceptions of China’s threat are to some degree a function of what people in Taiwan perceive the level of U.S. commitment to be and that Taiwanese support for independence varies according to the degree of worry about China’s threat. Those who perceive the U.S. commitment level as high are more likely to be less concerned about China’s threat and more likely to support independence. Conversely, those who worry about U.S. commitment to Taiwan tend to fear China’s threat more and are less willing to support independence.

In other words, what Niou is pointing out here is that the current US policy of creating a perception of reduced US support for Taiwan helps the KMT. When the US handed out F-16 upgrades instead of new aircraft, it helped the KMT, handing Beijing a double victory: (1) a reward for its unswerving policy of transferring tension between Taiwan and China to the US-Taiwan relationship; and (2) aiding Beijing's ally in Taiwan, the KMT, to get re-elected.

Niou also explores the effects of demographics such as age, education, and ethnicity, on voting preferences. At one point he observes:

Second, perception matters when it comes to the intersection of politics and economics. Ma and the KMT, even while espousing a relatively pro-status-quo policy, are viewed with suspicion regarding their economic stance. Even the smallest increase in economic integration between Taiwan and the mainland is deemed favorable to the longterm interests of China. The DPP politicians, on the other hand, procure increased interdependence with fewer scruples from their supporters.

This observation, that because DPP supporters trust the DPP's handling of cross-strait relations, meaning that they are more willing to tolerate increased integration with China, implies that in terms of its policy to integrate Taiwan with China so it can never declare independence, Beijing may well benefit from a DPP presidency. I doubt the CCP has enough imagination to embrace the possibilities, however. Niou also points out that the belief that China will not act in case of independence or the perception that the military threat is vapor also provides support for the KMT. He closes with a set of recommendations for the DPP and KMT.

This is an interesting paper with lots of numbers. Well worth checking out!
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Giant strikes back at GM

What kind of dumb-as-a-rock ad execs does GM employ? GM ran this incredibly stupid ad aimed at college students that tells them that bicycles are uncool and will make women laugh at you.

Taiwan's Giant counterattacked:

Note the yearly fuel cost comparison.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Daily Links, Mon, Oct 17, 2011

Hahahhaha. Bankers who supposedly bribed Chen Shui-bian got off in their second trial, except at one firm, where the founder got off, but two high officials were convicted and got.... a few months in jail plus probation. For bribing the President. I am sure that any appearance of a deal here is purely coincidental.

BLOGS:

• Understanding Taiwanese web design. 
• Oz visited the Occupy Taipei protests and has some good photos and narrative.
• CPI holds steady.
• A classic oriental beauty in Banciao's Lin family house.
• LiefinTaiwan with succulent photos of Confucius ceremonies.
• Steven Crook on Lugang
• Frozen Garlic with a really excellent, very long post on voting and representative systems and Taiwan. Please post more often!!!!! 
• Group hike to Snow Mountain planned for Nov 25-27.

MEDIA:

• China and the F-16s. Some people at East Asia Forum get it.
• Closing Global Views election poll: the negative effects on the election. 
• China's princelings break their silence, think party has lost its way, praise Taiwan.
• As Peter Lee notes, Taiwan sends a signal to China on the growth/politics link
• The South China Sea, a new political node.
• China's small firms see profits disappear. Wonder how this will affect Taiwanese firms there.
• A confused Thai piece on Taiwan's election.
• Taiwan Tourist board turning away from Chinese travelers. Say what?
• Taiwan wants more compensation from France over Lafayette deal. Think the corruption prosecutors will turn their attention to that case again? Haha. 
• Foxconn to build LCD plants in Brazil
• US-SKorea FTA may hurt Taiwan
• NMA laughs at the Bosox epic collapse.
• Death Metal and traditional music in Taiwan
• Top rice exporter Thailand loses 10% of its farms to flooding.
• There's a group pushing moving to the capital to Taichung.
• Brad Glosserman's We are all Taiwanese now: Taiwan's experience with rising China is a harbinger for what the world can expect....

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Soong whines, Tsai Conquers, Ma works the vote

PFP Chair James Soong claims there's a conspiracy to stop him...

There are forces at work trying to block efforts by People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) to collect enough signatures on a petition to take part in the presidential election, Soong said recently.

PFP personnel said Soong’s campaign efforts are being blocked by government officials, while military and educational personnel, as well civil servants, were being encouraged not to help with petition collection work.

Even veterans are being closely watched by local Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chapters, a PFP source said, citing the example of unknown persons taking away petition letters in a veterans’ village in the Banciao District (板橋) of New Taipei City (新北市).

Soong is still setting up the script for his presidential run later this year. In this one he defies the evil forces of the KMT to set forth on the road to glory. This conspiracy will also help explain why he hasn't collected enough signatures -- "I would have had a million, had it not been for the dastardly KMT! But I'm still running!" Nicely done. It might even be true.... if so, it points to another dynamic driving the election: the KMT's control of local officialdom, an advantage no other party can match.

Meanwhile the DPP had an emotional rally in Taipei, with spokesman claiming 80,000 showed up. DPPer  Hsiao Bi-khim said on her Facebook that people were throwing money onto the stage, and that small donations have been pouring in.

The President was also active as the campaigns start heating up. This weekend He headed to Hsinchu to work on Hakka votes and then back to Banqiao to stage rallies for the vote in northern Taiwan. As a result of the KMT's divide-and-rule ethnic politics, Taiwan's 4 million+ Hakkas are traditionally major supporters of the KMT. The DPP, however, has been making inroads into this voting bloc with blatant ethnic appeals. The DPP erected colleges of Hakka studies at local universities, a Council of Hakka Affairs, and a Hakka TV station during the Chen Administration. Tsai also just returned from the Hakka areas of Miaoli, Hsinchu, and Taoyuan, promising to make Hakka one of the national languages. Tsai herself is of Hakka descent, from Fangliao in Pingtung.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The country next door "negotiating" in cyberspace

Raytheon officials said the sale of missiles to Taiwan was their "Come to Jesus" moment in cybersecurity (same events, slightly different article):

After Raytheon began selling missiles to Taiwan in 2006, the defense company's computer network came under a torrent of cyberattacks.

"We truly had the 'come to Jesus moment' five years ago because we decided ... to sell missiles to Taiwan," said Vincent Blake, head of cyber security at Raytheon U.K., during a panel session at the RSA security conference in London on Wednesday.

"For some reason, a country next door to Taiwan didn't really like that so they got very interested in our IPR [intellectual property rights]," he said. "We've had to very, very rapidly catch up with our own internal networks."

Blake described a "huge leap in attacks" that prompted the company to make cybersecurity one of its top five priorities, and eye security companies for acquisition. Since that time, Raytheon has continued to be an attractive target for hackers, given its breadth of defense technologies that supply militaries around the world.

Now, the company sees an incredible 1.2 billion -- that's billion -- attacks on its network per day, Blake said. About 4 million spam messages target Raytheon's users, and the company sees some 30,000 samples per day of so-called Advanced Persistent Threats, or stealthy malware that seeks to stay long-term on infected computers and slowly withdraw sensitive information.

I put this article up first because it bears on the Michael Swaine piece that I linked to a few posts below this one, whose link is hilariously titled "US-Provoking-China-Over-Taiwan" -- though that is not the current title of the piece. If you compare the links and titles of other National Interest pieces, you'll soon find that the link and title are generally the same. This suggests that the original title or original topic was the outrageous US Provoking China Over Taiwan. A wise change. Swaine writes:

For many U.S. observers, the only "solution" to the intensifying problem created by these factors is to keep selling arms to Taiwan, plow ever-more scarce U.S. resources into maintaining military predominance in the Western Pacific, keep providing verbal assurances to Beijing that it does not support unilateral moves by Taiwan toward independence, and continue urging Taipei and Beijing to work out their differences peacefully. But China's military buildup, its increasing economic and political leverage, and its growing nationalism suggest that a serious future crisis over arms sales will likely occur before any significant movement toward a stable modus vivendi between Beijing and Taipei emerges.

Dear readers, as the piece on Raytheon shows, a serious crisis is already occurring, in the computer networks of companies that sell arms to Taiwan, as 1.2 billion attacks on its network per day. Multiply by alleged Chinese attacks on other US firms.

Oh yeah.

Keep this childish yet dangerous behavior in mind because Swaine then suggests:

Only the United States can alter China's calculus toward Taiwan in ways that would facilitate a military drawdown and genuine movement toward a more stable cross-strait military and political relationship. It is time for Washington to consider negotiating directly with Beijing, in consultation with Taipei, a set of mutual assurances regarding Chinese force levels and deployments, on the one hand, and major U.S. arms sales and defense assistance to Taiwan, on the other hand—linked to the eventual opening of a cross-strait political dialogue on the status of Taiwan. Success in such an effort would be difficult but not impossible. It would require political courage, diplomatic acumen, and a recognition that the current U.S. approach to Taiwan is probably unsustainable and could prove disastrous.

I noted a few posts below that this is really a bad idea.

1. Would China keep such an agreement? Hahaha see history, Tibet. See FTAs with nations around it.
2. If an agreement on force levels and deployments were reached, how could it distinguish between forces poised to hit the Senkakus or the South China Sea and those aimed at Taiwan, especially with Taiwan having a major base in the Spratlys? 
3. Swaine means that Taiwan must be in some way handed over to Beijing, since Beijing cannot accept any other outcome. This will just mean more demands, since the US will have shown that Beijing's current tactics will produce successful, low-cost outcomes.

As I have pointed out before in my criticisms of similar proposals, such ideas make sense only when Taiwan is isolated from the broader context of Chinese territorial expansion. Except, as I have also pointed out countless times, Taiwan cannot be isolated from that broader context because it is entangled in it, both in the way Chinese minds envision their nation's territorial expansion, and in the very practical way of having a base in the South China Sea.

Think Taipei will give that base up?

How can a nation that allegedly launches a billion cyberattacks on just one of your firms per day be trusted with anything as important as this kind of agreement? Would you accept an assurance from it?
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Daily Links:

• Way Cool: Reforestation in the wake of the Amerind die-off triggered by European arrival may have caused the Little Ice Age. Those of you who have read Charles Mann's 1491 and 1493 will love this.
• Philippines unfazed by Taiwan's plan to put missiles in the Spratlys
• Bloggers in China laud Taiwan's democracy.
• The Writing Baron visits Chang Hsueh-liang's house.
• Laowiseass on why Taiwanese regulators don't like foreign firms buying into their local companies.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Miaoli 130 Redux

I haven't been out riding much recently, just too busy. After my last ride I was worried that the light riding I'd been doing all summer had reduced my endurance, so I decided to test myself on my favorite of my habitual local routes: Miaoli 130 over Yundong Shan. Cloudy day, drizzling when I left. Good day for a ride, I thought.

The bike gods cleared the way and I soon found myself in Miaoli peering out over Liyu Reservoir with good weather.

...but ahead, fog was blanketing the mountains.

I stopped at my favorite shop where I turn off 3 to take 130 over the mountain to slam a Supau and listen to the old ladies talk.

The it was up 130, where fog filled the valleys and wound around the peaks.

There's always a handsome lad waiting to meet you on the road.

At the top, lunch was tomatoes and tofu, a cup of tea....and fog.

Then it was downhill on slick roads, in the fog, in the rain, in high winds. Not fun.

At the bottom, I climbed above the broken railroad viaduct, a minor but popular historic site, to get a shot. Down in clear weather the tourists were congregating for the usual shots. From here they often hike back to Shenghsing Station, a kitsch historic spot overrun by the pleasure-seeking hordes. Avoid like plague on the weekends.

On the other side of the valley the other end of the viaduct quietly rots, but there's a pretty little path to it.

By the river north of Houli, all was light and fog. Here the mountain line crosses the valley on the viaduct in the distance.

Don't your knees hurt when you ride? I asked her. Yes! She replied. A lot! And so she got The Road Bike Lecture with a bonus Your Seat is Too Low lecture. She scowled at me, saying: my brother says the same thing.

The cement factory looks almost pleasant in this shot. After 90 kms of lovely mountain roads with 1100 meters of climbing, I felt pleasant as well. I've got a map of a number of my favorite local loops; this one is the light blue one.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Government and Politics in Taiwan

Dafydd Fell passed around the good news of the publication of Government and Politics in Taiwan. Jump to the link and grab a copy!
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Jamestown Brief Twofer

Here I am on a marathon Game of Thrones HBO tv version watchfest with the family. If you haven't read A Song of Ice and Fire, make it a priority. The first book is incredible; the third book is one of the great feats of pure storytelling. Two, four and five are merely awesome.

It seems somehow to have Game of Thrones for a backdrop to two strong Taiwan-related pieces at the Jamestown Brief. First, Michael Chase points out how limited China's reaction to the F-16 upgrades has been. The reasons:

Given that Chinese objections seem to focus more on the political symbolism of U.S. backing for Taiwan than anything else, what explains China’s apparently moderate substantive response to the latest arms sales? Chinese analysts suggested Beijing’s relatively restrained reaction was a function of several factors. These included the latest arms sales package, Beijing’s concerns about how a stronger reaction might impact domestic politics in Taiwan before its January 2012 presidential and legislative elections and how it might influence U.S.-China relations ahead of the upcoming leadership succession in China. First, that the package did not include the requested new F-16C/Ds probably made it easier for Beijing to take a more restrained tack than if the new fighters had been part of the deal, given the perceived symbolic importance of the potential sale of new fighters. Another motive seems to be minimizing the risk of upsetting cross-Strait relations in ways that could undermine President Ma Ying-jeou's chances of reelection or bolster the opposition in Taiwan ahead of the island’s elections in January (Liberation Daily, September 23). Domestic politics in China and the need for a stable U.S.-China relationship also seem to have been relevant. Professor Shi Yinhong of Renmin University attributed the muted response to the Chinese leadership’s desire to avoid creating problems ahead of Vice President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the United States in early 2012, especially with a leadership transition later next year in which Xi is expected to succeed Hu Jintao as China’s leader (Christian Science Monitor, September 27).

Looking from the outside, China's muted reaction also appears to have been arranged in advance in talks between Washington and Beijing.

John Dotson has a good piece on how exchanges between Chinese and ROC military officers give insight into the developing United Front between the CCP and the KMT to prevent Taiwan independence. A taste:

The common thread in these officer exchanges is the sponsorship role of the Huangpu Academy Alumni Association (Huangpu junxiao tongxue hui). The Huangpu Alumni Association is nominally a civic organization in China for graduates of the Huangpu (Whampoa) Military Academy, an officers’ training college founded in Guangzhou in 1924 that produced many graduates who later became prominent figures in both the Kuomintang and Communist causes. The Huangpu link has long been a factor in Chinese outreach to Taiwan. When China’s “Nine Principles for Peaceful Unification” were unveiled in 1981, their leading spokesman was PLA Marshall Ye Jianying, a Huangpu alumnus with many old classmates in Kuomintang uniforms across the Strait.

Although it appears on the surface to be a privately organized, person-to-person initiative, the Taiwan officers’ exchange program is actually a project of the CCP’s United Front Work Department (UFWD). The Huangpu Alumni Association is a thinly-disguised front organization operated by the UFWD. It is one of several entities identified by name on a United Front Work Department website as organizations managed by the UFWD. At a UFWD-hosted reception in January , UFWD Vice Director You Lantian praised the Alumni Association for its "outstanding achievements in Taiwan work," and expressed confidence that it would "continue to adhere to the policy of the central authorities for Taiwan work... and make new contributions for the peaceful reunification of the Motherland" (Huangpu.org.cn, January 25).

Dotson gives a timeline of the recent exchanges, though in fact the trend of contacts goes back to the 1990s. By the late 1990s hundreds of retired Taiwan military were living in China. Dotson also points out that this effort has borne little fruit in influencing policy, though no doubt its intelligence harvest has been vast. The effort is aimed at the fading generation of old military officers from China, while the upcoming officer core has much different values.
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Chen Shui-bian and family found guilty on appeal, more appeals to come

The Taipei Times reports:

Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) was yesterday sentenced to 18 years in prison by the Taiwan High Court for taking bribes in relation to a series of bank mergers during his eight years in power, fined NT$180 million (US$5.95 million) and stripped of his civil rights for nine years.

His wife, Wu Shu-jen (吳淑珍), was sentenced to 11 years and fined NT$102 million in the same case and stripped of her civil rights for eight years.

The ruling overturned a ruling in November last year by the Taipei District Court, which cleared the former president and his wife of all charges over merger approvals during the second phase of his administration’s financial reforms, based on a lack of evidence that they received bribes from financial holding companies to ensure the mergers went in their favor. Chen and Wu’s son, Chen Chih-chung (陳致中), and daughter-in-law, Huang Jui-ching (黃睿靚), were also acquitted in that ruling.

TT reported today that his son is also appealing this decision. One observer remarked that the decision appears too early to affect the election. It will be more difficult to make an issue of Chen this time around; the KMT silenced him in detention -- had they let him speak, he might have caused chaos in the DPP and seriously impeded the party's recovery. No doubt the KMT will do what it can to use Chen to rally the base, but his case has receded into conventional wisdom, old and neutered.

Meanwhile Jeffry Koo, who testified that he bribed Chen in connection with a land case was allowed to leave the country on a huge bail even though he is a known flight risk. Chen was detained, ostensibly for being a flight risk. The Koos later repudiated this testimony in court. I have not heard anything about how that has affected the case.

If the verdict is the result of political interference, it has been well handled. The lower court decision gives the process a veneer of impartiality, while the higher court returns the desired decision. But bear in mind that every judge involved in Chen family cases knows that a previous judge was removed for ruling the "wrong" way.
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Daily Links:

• Brahma Chelleny on China: the Water Hegemon. 
• Dean Cheng strikes again with an excellent analysis of the F-16 deal and China's airpower at Heritage 
• Jenna discusses the recent posts on foreigners.
• Taiwan Echo's post on polls and the GV shutdown. READ IT.
• I am not the Michael quoted in this BBC thing. 

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Global Views Shuts Down Polling! =UPDATED=

Huge news: Global Views has shut down its polling center for the duration of the election, apparently:

The Global Views Survey Research Center’s sudden announcement on Tuesday that it would no longer conduct polls on elections or political issues has triggered intense media coverage and allegations that it caved in to political pressure.

The surveys the center had been conducting on January’s presidential election, as well as its monthly public support trend investigation and political party inclination investigation will all be halted.

The center’s last survey was conducted on Sept. 21 and found that if President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) ran just against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), support for Ma was 39.2 percent to Tsai’s 38.3. percent.

If People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) joined the race, Soong would garner 10 percent of the votes, and Tsai would lead Ma with 36 percent to his 35.8 percent, the survey found.

If you look at the poll right below this one, you'll Ma has a huge lead. That's in the pro-KMT China Times. Other pro-KMT polls are similar. But GV constantly interrupted this narrative of inevitable DPP loss with the sad news that the race is neck and neck -- even the international media was reporting it as a neck and neck race. It's hard not to read this shutdown of the one semi-reliable poll as an act of political pressure.

Remember too that if the KMT loses they have now prepared the ground for the claiming that the vote was rigged: "Look, the polls had Ma up by 10 or more, but he lost by 2. How is this possible? There must have been cheating!!"

UPDATE: SY in the comments says:

The owners and the head of the GV group are close to KMT, most are members of KMT.

I was told:

The above-mentioned geo-demo-adjusted projections ("analysis") have been showing Tsai leading for the last two months (the Oct data is said to be of the same trend.) The "bad news" has been spreading from ear to ear.

I believe this was the reason why the Ma regime decided to kill it. Personally, I still believe Ma will win the election. Money does talk.

Thanks also to the commenter who pointed to the Lib Times piece: GV currently has Tsai up over Ma 4-6%. The head of GV resigned in the wake of this mess.

UPDATE II: Read Taiwan Echo's post
UPDATE III: Global Views polling center director interview summary in the TT
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.