Joseph Wu: Peace = Unification; Road Maps for Peace

Lots of calls for consensus on cross strait relations, with DPP heavyweight Joseph Wu making a number of good points in a commentary in the TT:

China has clearly expressed its view on the resolution of the “Taiwan problem” in the roadmap laid down by Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) in his six-point statement at the end of 2008.

In the roadmap, Hu said that the two sides should, based on the “one China” principle, negotiate the formal end of the civil war and sign a peace agreement. The two sides could then discuss the political framework before unification as well as the issue of mutual military trust.

According to this roadmap, the “one China” principle and a formal end of the civil war become preconditions for a peace agreement. Apparently, the result of the peace agreement will be unidirectional: Taiwan neutralized and on the irreversible road to unification.

Ma has neither repudiated China’s method of resolving the Taiwan issue nor explained his position on the “one China” principle or the ending of the civil war as preconditions for talks on a peace agreement. In fact, he asserted that he saw genuine goodwill in the six-point statement in a video conference in April 2009.

Wu also notes that the peace agreement is a backward step -- President Lee ended the state of emergency, essentially ending the "civil war". To sign a peace agreement is in essence to recognize a state of war, at least on Taiwan's side, that was terminated two decades ago. It's a good example of the way that ideology governs Ma's perception of reality. Wu also emphasizes that no "peace agreement" can be made unless Taipei says Taiwan is part of China and all its people are Chinese. Peace = unification.

A friend of mine steered me toward this paper written two years ago by a pro-China Taiwan academic whose peace proposal is eerily similar to what Ma is putting forth. In this proposal, the KMT government on Taiwan accepts that Taiwan is part of China and everyone on the island is Chinese. After that the threat of force ends. Hahaha. There seems to be a widespread fantasy that after the two parties agree on "peace" Beijing will put up its sword -- but as I have said many times, those missiles are aimed at observers in foreign capitals, especially Washington and Tokyo, as well as at the pro-Taiwan side in local politics. Note that the missile build-up has continued despite Ma's ascension.

If Ma is elected, do you think he will declare "I have a mandate!" and move forward with a peace agreement because his election shows the public supports it? Oy ve.
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Daily Links:

• Taiwan, other nations dumping products, says US.
• Danny Bloom says superstitious Taiwanese creeped out by Steve Jobs book displays.
• A Jamaican look at Taiwan's attempt to repossess Grenada.
• Jupiter brightest this Saturday. Wait another decade if you miss....
• Government nervous as tech firms want to furlough workers.
• DPP announces aboriginal policies, goes after the aboriginal vote.
• Global Warming Denialists do own study, totally confirm climate science. The lies won't stop, but it is nice to see.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Ma continues to backpedal on Peace Treaty

Ma's "peace treaty" suggestion, which landed in the election environment like a corpse tossed into a besieged castle by a trebuchet, took place against a couple of interesting background events. First, Taiwan's top national security official observed yesterday that Taiwan-China relations are going to enter a more difficult period. With the easy economic stuff done, China will now become more assertive in pressing for political talks. Instabilities may result.

Second, Leon Pannetta praised China for its more restrained response to the F-16 upgrade sale to Taiwan, and said that the Adminstration had notified Beijing of what was going to take place. It is hard to think of a clearer illustration that tensions are (1) caused by Beijing and (2) totally under Beijing's control and (3) a calculated policy response and not some putative visceral reaction, aimed at US support for Taiwan and US analysts and observers. I suppose, though, it is too much to hope that the media will cease writing as if tensions occur without agents causing them, or that Taiwan is the cause of tensions between Beijing and Washington.

In any case, Taiwan's feckless President, Ma Ying-jeou, did some more backpedaling on the proposal for the peace treaty with China. Ma put forth the "ten guarantees" to show that public that he is serious about protecting Taiwan. Perhaps he's signalling to Beijing that they'd better invade because convincing the public is going to be quite difficult....

Ma explained that there are 10 guarantees serving as preconditions for the cautious consideration of a peace agreement. The first is maintaining the status quo of no unification, no independence and no use of force under the framework of the ROC Constitution, while promoting cross-strait exchanges based on the “1992 consensus,” which allows both sides to recognize “one China” but differ on its precise political definition.

Negotiating a cross-strait peace accord would only be possible when two prerequisites are met, Ma said—a high degree of domestic consensus and mutual trust between Taipei and Beijing.

It would also have to meet the true needs of the country, have strong public support and be supervised by the Legislature, he added.

“These three principles will not change, and the government will spare no effort to be as transparent as possible prior to and after negotiations so that the public will understand what actions are being taken,” Ma said.

In addition, talks on a peace agreement would have to ensure ROC sovereignty, Taiwan’s safety and prosperity, ethnic harmony and cross-strait peace, as well as a sustainable environment and just society, the president noted.

Ma referred to the 10 guarantees as “one framework, two prerequisites, three principles and four assurances.”

“It is not an easy task to fill the bill of the 10 guarantees. Therefore, a referendum would be necessary to confirm public opinion, and the government would only take action when the issue has strong public support,” Ma said.

Once again, I observe that the referendum is non-binding and will not take place on the treaty itself and is merely an assay of public opinion. Note that he does not say majority support merely strong public support (I can hear it now: "But we thought 27% was strong public support!!!??"). Note also that Ma's peace treaty is under the One China rubric, meaning that it would make Taiwan part of China. Not likely to play well with the voters. Though by setting up so many apparent roadblocks to a treaty, Ma hastens to assure voters that a peace treaty is unlikely. ROFL.

Unpopular and criticized even by media that support the KMT, the proposal also seemed to give Tsai a boost in the polls and in the prediction market. Not only did it remind voters that Ma thinks that Taiwan is part of China, his proposal for a referendum gave the DPP something to attack. The DPP responded by calling for an amendment to the referendum law to the public the right to oversee any changes in the sovereignty of Taiwan, enabling it to appear the enforcer of the status quo and democracy at the same time, while painting Ma as a radical seeking to overturn the current order by any means.

One observer argued that Ma was seeking to place the cross-strait relationship in the limelight since Tsai's steady chipping away at the KMT's handling of domestic economic issues was paying off. Yet the RDEC released a poll this week, from data collected in May, that says the public is not very satisfied with Ma's handling of cross-strait affairs, suggesting that the KMT may fare no better in that realm. The RDEC, by the way, is being folded into another gov't department next year. Hopefully its often interesting survey work will continue....

Ironically, Ma's call for a referendum on a peace treaty with China pretty much nullified all the arguments the KMT had made in its railing against a referendum on ECFA, as many commentators pointed out this week (Lin Cho-shui, for example), making the KMT look both clumsy and hypocritical. Gotta wonder what they were thinking in KMT land.....
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

What did Ma Actually Say about a referendum? It doesn't matter!

The international media -- who may well have been the target of Ma's proposal for a "peace treaty" -- making the Preznit and longtime democracy foe look like an advocate of "peace" -- can't seem to agree on what he said about a referendum.

The BBC:

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has said that he will not engage in peace talks with China unless voters give their approval in a referendum.

No hesitations, qualifications, or conditions. Ma "will not/unless".

Remember that Ma's original proposal did not call for a referendum and said that such a treaty would only be submitted to the legislature -- a KMT fief and likely to be one for the foreseeable future, meaning that the treaty would be free of public oversight. It seems likely that Ma's mention of the hated "referendum" was prompted only by the storm of criticism and a sudden plummet in the internal polling (though the other day the pro-KMT China Times published a poll saying that the treaty idea had strong support).  Thus AP reported:

On Thursday, Ma appeared to back off his original peace treaty declaration — at least to an extent.

"We will consider a referendum for the peace treaty," he said, justifying the new condition on the grounds that a treaty would have an even greater impact on Taiwan than the landmark trade deal it signed last year with Beijing.

Not only did they back off from rubber stamping a treaty, they also backed off from a firm date today.

This threw me for a loop for a moment:

Yes, TaiwanNews has AP's report presented as if from AFP. *sigh*

Meanwhile AFP actually reported that Ma straightforwardly said that "Referendum a must for China treaty: Taiwan leader":

"We will put the matter to vote if we are going to seek the cross-strait peace treaty in the future. We will not sign the treaty if it is not approved in a referendum," Ma told reporters.

Bloomberg similar made the referendum similarly unconditional.

The Taipei Times report today, Friday Oct 21, showed the reality of how nuanced Ma's position really is:

“If we decided to proceed with the peace agreement, a referendum would be held first to gauge public opinion about the issue, and we won’t sign the agreement if it fails the referendum ... This is to show both our determination and caution in handling such a pact,” Ma told a news conference at the Presidential Office.

Note that referendum will not be a binding referendum on the "peace treaty" itself. It will merely be an assay of public opinion prior to the talks with no binding effect. Ma knows exactly what he is doing. The President could then frame a referendum, passed or failed, any way he liked. Or ignore it completely.

Because they've already done that.

Remember when they said ECFA wouldn't be signed ("conditions wouldn't be ripe") unless it had the support of 60% of the public? (here if you can't). Then that didn't matter, and they signed it anyway, while saying it had strong public support even though few independent polls showed that ECFA had even managed to garner outright majority support, let alone 60% support. Taiwan has already meekly submitted once to an agreement crucial to the island's control over its own future signed with no majority support. Why not again?

Cue the peace agreement shock doctrine: "If we don't have peace, we won't get FTAs! If we don't have peace, we'll have war! If we don't have peace, our exports will collapse! We'll be marginalized without peace!" And don't forgot that Nobel Peace Prize!
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Daily Links:

• A good piece in The Diplomat: Ma Feeling the Heat. Taiwan is undergoing the same process that brought out the Occupy Wall Street and other movements around the globe: rising wealth concentration and falling real incomes:
  

  But even when Taiwan's GDP grew and labour productivity rose 16 percent in 2010, labour costs for employers fell 11 percent, an indication that workers weren’t receiving a fair share of the gains they were helping create. Real wages have actually fallen by about 4 percent from 12 years ago, and that, coupled with soaring house prices and rising unemployment have left many first time voters in particular out in the cold.

• China warns that trade will suffer if pro-Taiwan side wins in election (Taipei Times report)
• The Writing Baron on Mona Rao and Seediq Bale. Excellent, as usual.
• Lao Ren Cha on getting a CELTA pass A
• The uniformly excellent James Holmes in The Diplomat says China is The Scorpion of the fable.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.