Sunday, August 22, 2010

Time to end the Ambiguity?

Joseph Bosco, China-Taiwan specialist, writes in the LATimes, arguing that it is time to end the US ambiguity on defending Taiwan, because it encourages China to attack:
Neither Beijing nor Washington wants war, but as long as China believes the U.S. will ultimately abandon democratic Taiwan to avoid it, the danger of conflict increases.

It is time for U.S. clarity on Taiwan; strategic ambiguity has run its course.

Washington should declare that we would defend democratic Taiwan against any Chinese attack or coercion, and that we also welcome Taiwan's participation in international organizations (starting by inviting President Ma Ying-jeou to Honolulu for the December meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group).

In return, Taiwan must forgo formal independence for now, even though that result is ultimately consistent with American values.

In exchange for China's renouncing force, Washington should also pledge not to recognize formal Taiwan statehood and discourage others from doing so, while also insisting that China's use of force would trigger instant recognition.
Bosco's ultimate outcome is a formalized status quo guaranteed by US force of arms. We already say that we welcome Taiwan's participation in international organizations, so no particular gain there. The problem is that Bosco's American foreign policy community all support the current ECFA/financial integration sellout, on the assumption that (1) everyone will make big bucks and (2) there will be peace. Perhaps the US ought to examine how getting more integrated with China has not led to more peaceful relations between Beijing and Washington.....

PIC: Cool double rainbow over Chiayi last week.
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Friday, August 20, 2010

More Chinglish Aargh from gov.tw

From GMail ads above my email inbox. "To learn" oops. It's arguably missing a "the" before Taipei as well.

"To learn" again from GMail. Same problems as above.


Huffpost
Seen on Huffpost. "To learn" again. Note that the ad below the Taiwan ad also contains a minor error; the usual practice is to say "US goals" and avoid the awkward possessive.


salon
This one is very very minor and forgivable. Can you spot it? UPDATE: Nope, I'm wrong. No comma necessary after peoples.

These are all easily fixed. Some QC would be nice, folks -- it would make Taiwan look competent and professional.
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Thursday, August 19, 2010

Jerome Cohen "Neither Green Nor Blue"

Here I am in Kaohsiung, too sick to go out and get thoroughly hammered to properly prepare for tomorrow's bike ride down to Kenting, so I've decided to write a blog post instead. I'll get hammered tomorrow morning; the flatlands of Pingtung just seem to be a place where the biking would be improved by a lack of sobriety....

Jerome Cohen wrote a wonderful response to a Chinese nationalist loon/scholar who attacked Cohen for being "Green" on the subject of Taiwan. The piece, entitled Neither Green nor Blue, should be read in its entirety.

In his lead in to the discussion Cohen wrote:
....I am sure I have disappointed all such expectations, since I try not to allow either friendship or previous political history to influence my focus on issues of the greatest importance to me: open democratic governance, human rights and the rule of law.

I too have been disappointed — by those in Taiwan who analyze issues of law and government in terms of their impact on one side or the other in the island’s overheated partisan politics, rather than on their merits. Paradoxically, in China, where no opposition political party is tolerated, criticism and suggestions for reform, at least superficially, have often focussed on the merits of the topic discussed rather than partisan implications. Of late, however, a rising nationalistic tide has led an increasing number of writers to substitute patriotic rhetoric for responsible analysis.
You can be sure that when someone writes that they are above all that silly partisan politicking and judge ideas "on their merits" that they are refusing to see the massive conflict in their own position, and so it is with Cohen. Zhao Nianyu, the Chinese scholar who attacked Cohen, had much to teach him on this, if only Cohen had listened.

The issue is quite simple. On one hand Cohen supports the CCP/KMT reconciliation and its project of Chinese nationalism, the annexation of Taiwan to China. He supports ECFA and he supports the close economic links between Beijing and Taipei. On the other hand, Cohen supports democracy and rule of law in Taiwan. There is no question on that latter score; Cohen has been a giant speaking out on behalf of rule of law here. But as Zhao points out, these two positions are inherently contradictory: the KMT and CCP can only kiss and make up over the dead body of Taiwan's democracy.

The problem is that democracy and rule of law are not like hand tools whose "merits" are utilitarian. In the Taiwan case, one of the "merits" of democracy and rule of law is that they help keep Beijing at arms length. Both the pro-China and the pro-Taiwan side in this debate realize that. It is obvious on the KMT side in the Ma Administration's struggles to prevent ECFA from having meaningful democratic oversight, and on Beijing's side from its demands, through spokesmen like Zhao and in its talks with the KMT. After a visit to Taiwan Thor Halvorssen and Alex Gladstein published a remarkable piece about what happens in Taiwan when China's human rights are criticized. Their human rights organization had been invited by the KMT to visit Taiwan....
Surprising, then, that we were invited to Taiwan not by the DPP but by the KMT's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to discuss the idea of building a human rights gathering in Taipei. The Taiwan Freedom Forum would be akin to the conference we organize in Norway each year that allows human rights defenders to share experiences and strategize. Our speakers are not known for pulling any punches--Kadeer gave this year's keynote address.

As soon as the MFA realized that our programming was openly critical of the Chinese government, however, their interest disappeared. Over the course of an hour-long lunch in Taipei with the head of the foreign ministry's NGO unit, we often talked human rights but the diplomat did not once raise the issue of China. In any other country this omission would not be too strange--but in Taiwan, where everything is seen through the lens of China, the silence was deafening.

Our MFA handler told us that the KMT "would not continue any discussion of a Freedom Forum," and that if we persisted we would be "troublemakers."

In response, we arranged to meet DPP officials and independent journalists who were more interested in hearing about our work. An hour after we visited the DPP's headquarters, the handler who had escorted us everywhere and taken notes on everything we said suddenly evaporated. Initially having been assigned to us for our entire stay, he had been "reassigned."

In Cohen's case, he suffers the same fate as Halvorssen & Co: when they start talking about democracy, they become "troublemakers." Ironically Zhao is saying the same thing to Cohen that Cohen said to the DPP:
If the DPP acts reasonably and constructively in the review, rather than engage in the obstructionist tactics that the KMT fears, it will gain public support.
"If Dr. Cohen just acts reasonably and constructively...."

Zhao has put his finger on the contradiction in Cohen's thinking -- you can't support democracy and the KMT/CCP ECFA sellout talks at the same time, since the ultimate success of the latter entails the loss of the former. Every partisan in this debate recognizes that reality. Even Cohen himself has stated (Ties that blind) "Improved cross-strait relations appear to have come at a cost to some civil liberties in Taiwan".

As Zhao Hianyu instructs you, Dr. Cohen, just keep following that logic to its proper conclusion.

I'm off to bike. See ya'll in a couple of days!
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Monday, August 16, 2010

Daily Links, Aug 16, 2010


The Suhua Highway and the sea-cliffs of eastern Taiwan, seen from the train.

Apologies in advance -- I left a long post below this one because it is likely I won't be posting for the remainder of this week. Please be patient with comments since I won't get around to them for a couple of days. In the meantime I'll leave you with plenty of links to explore below this one.....

BLOGS:
MEDIA:
REQUESTS: A friend wants to know...
Also, if you know of any films about Hsinchu County, or made by Hsinchu County filmmakers, please let me know.
Send me an email, please.
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Paper on Parade: The US annexation of Formosa in the 1850s

Commodore Perry's Survey Map of Keelung
Lt. Preble's map of Keelung and its environs.

Everyone knows that the expedition of Matthew Perry and his Black Ships opened Japan. But how many of you know that Perry and his ships stopped in Keelung in 1854 on his second trip for 10 days to do a survey of the harbor and to assess its coal resources?

In the summer of 1854 Perry had just completed another voyage to Japan, and was returning home to the US a hero. In June he split up his squadron of ships, sending them on various errands. Around June 13 Perry sent Lt. George Henry Preble in Macedonian to Keelung. Preble, who kept a diary in defiance of strict orders not to, wrote in his illegal record of the voyage:
The Commodore has decided to send our ship to Keelung a port on the Northern end of the Island of Formosa. I am to survey and make a map of the Harbor. Mr. Jones the Chaplain of the Mississippi goes with us to make a geological survey of its coal mines and the Supply is to accompany us to take away a load of its coal as a specimen, provided she can get one.
Keelung was reached on July 11, 1854. Preble said:
We anchored here at 10 o'clock this morning and found to our surprise the Supply has not arrived before us. We have been regaling ourselves after our long abstinence with pine apples, egg plants, cucumbers pumpkins, pigs, poultry and eggs, not that anyone of us have eaten through the whole list, but the sight of all these attainable things is refreshing. I was on shore today for a few minutes but saw only a crowded dirty town which reminded me of a dozen similiar dirty Syrian towns in the Mediterranean.
The first western lithograph of Keeling (called Killon) was made in 1824 by Lieutenant G. Parkyn, R.N., of the British vessel Merope. Parkyn described Keelung Island, that protruding bit of the harbor's caldera, as the landmark that enabled mariners to find the harbor, a situation that would persist through the middle of the 19th century (source). Preble recorded this on the map above:
Keelung harbor or Keelung Taw (head or promontory) is situated near the North Eastern points of the Island of Formosa. The Entrance may be readily known by the high Island of Keelung, situated 3 ½ miles to the N.E. and by the high craggy land to the Westward, outlines of which are given on the Chart.
Keelung Harbor today, with Keelung Island prominent in the background.

Preble made several sketches of the harbor and described its many geological peculiarities. Here he describes the rock formations that line both sides of the harbor:
At the Western entrance of the Harbor, there is another curious and peculiar appearance. The soft yellow sand stone has been eaten into and washed away by the corrosion of the sea leaving large and dark colored boulders of a harder rock supported on pillars of the softer stone thus creating many fanciful shapes resembling at a little distance and with a slight effort of the imagination images of men, birds and beasts. I have named it in my survey Image Point.
Three sketches by Preble: (1) Keelung Island (2) Western entrance of the harbor (3) Distant outline of the land about Keelung


Rock formations on the west side of Keelung harbor

Preble described a rock formation which, in sketch 2 above, labeled Ruin Rock. He wrote:
A rock which I have taken for a signal or triangulation point, and named "Ruin Rock" is a lump of soft sand stone washed by the rains so as to present a very exact resemblance to a small gothic ruin. On its top there is a cup like pulpit about large enough for three men to stand upon. The annexed sketch shows some of its peculiarities but not all of them. One of its hollow archways has been connected into a small joss house or altar, and in it there is a quantity of bleached bones and human skulls.
This is probably the major rock formation on Heping Island. Here it is below:

The famous cave on Heping Island.

Preble goes on to say:
The dark parts are round or oval shaped rocks impregnated with iron and stuck here and there in the sand stone like plums in a pudding. The unshaded part is a light buff sandstone. Two points thus abraded by the sea extended their arms to the E 8t on the Western side of the entrance and between them is formed a beautiful natural dock large enough to hold our ship, and deep enough on one side for her to lie alongside the natural pier. Back of this dock and between these image like projections, there is a level amphitheater with the escarpment of a sand stone hill rising in terraces behind it. The level part is perhaps one hundred feet square, and its natural stone pavement is traversed by seams and cracks which give it the character of a tessalated pavement like the sketch. Dikes of different colored stone six to eight inches in width marking it all over in irregular seams. A small island in the entrance of the Harbor about a third of a mile square is another interesting feature. The whole island is based on sand stone and the northern side including nine tenths of the Island is washed by the sea in heavy gales, and resembles the natural pavement I have already described. The Southern edge of the Island has on top of the sand stone, a coral formation from six to ten feet in thickness, the top of which has decomposed and furnishes a soil for a few bushes, and some grass and weeds. The Island has evidently been elevated from beneath the sea.
Today a visitor can walk around Heping Island and see the same formations Preble did, looking much as he described them more than century ago.

Preble's maps and sketches were foundational for later Keelung Harbor maps, as Douglas Fix of Reed College observes. The British Admiralty sketches of the Harbor done in the 1858 were based on his work.

Preble's mission also went well. He noted in his diary that Supply would be able to obtain the 300 tons of coal she was ordered to obtain, and opined that Keelung might one day be an important coaling port, lying as it did on the shipping routes. Of the Keelungers he was less complimentary:
The present inhabitants are a rude thieving opium smoking sam shu drinking people. The exceedingly coarse cotton flags I put up as signals and which I punched full of holes and cut in shreds to render valueless, were stolen nightly from the poles, and had to be replaced in the morning before commencing work.
Preble noted that "the chief mandarin" was happy to see the ships, as he was preparing to fight one of the island's interminable revolts. He also assessed the city's defensibility:
The town reminds me of several Syrian towns. The streets of shops, being bazaars or under arched footpaths, and the shops very small. The filth, dogs, dark skinned inhabitants, and peculiar dress, many wearing turbans serve to increase this resemblance. A wall or moat surrounds the town, and it is defended by a miserable fort, armed with two immense guns, and three smaller ones, all rusty and cumberous, and on such rotten and silly planned carriages that I would face the guns than stand behind them in action. The towns best defenses are the paddy fields which nearly surround three sides of it and extensive mud flats in front which prevents any approach by boats, leaving only a narrow causeway and a gorge between two hills which has been walled up with a high double wall the only way for the approach of an enemy. A handful of men could defend the place from thousands.
Preble's next entry dates from 10 days later, merely noting that they had sailed from Keelung and were on their way to Manila and eventual rendezvous in Hong Kong with the rest of Perry's squadron. [UPDATE: To understand the remark about turbans, see this pic of Ketegalan aborigines]

The diary of then-midshipmen Kidder Randolph Breese, who would later go on to fame in the naval actions of the Civil War, tells some of the tale of Macedonian's days in Keelung port. He wrote that the Chinese junks refused to deliver coal by day, instead shipping over to Supply at night. He was evidently a friendly, easy-going man, and appeared to enjoy his time in Keelung very much, writing:
The streets of Keelung are a succession of arcades, with, for Chinese, very good ranges of shops on each side, and the pavements in front are covered with a busy throng vending fruits and trinkets of every description -- except the best....

...The districts in which vegetables, fish, poultry, and fruit are sold present a very goodly array of the above-mentioned provisions. The pineapples are plentiful, also mangoes of a good quality; the sweet potatos, especially the top ones, large; eggs, principally those of ducks. Bananas are scarce, the country being too hilly for them, the same may be said of coconuts. The watermelons are excellent -- not large, but with very thin rinds.

Continued our walk through the town, stopping now and then to examine the contents of the stores, or accepting the often-repeated invitation to walk in and take a pipe and cup of tea, on which occasions we would write in English for them, or draw a rough chart, showing the vessels' track and destination, with which they were very much pleased, many understanding the position of the countries, represented on the chart, very well.
Amidst all the descriptions and sketching and coaling, there was politicking going on. Returning home to the United States the following month on a British ship out of Hong Kong, Commodore Perry would recommend to his government that the United States establish a presence on Formosa, as well as on Okinawa and the Bonin Island. Perry was looking forward to the future merchant shipping as well as for refuge in future wars. Ironically despite Perry's activity and forward-looking recommendations, it was not in the north of Taiwan but in the south that the US would, for a few years in the mid-1850s, make its presence felt.

As T. R. Cox records in Harbingers of Change: American Merchants and the Formosa Annexation Scheme,* Perry's 1854 proposals were part of an emerging stream of US recognition of the importance of the Pacific trade and increasingly, of Taiwan. The California gold rush had encouraged US ships to voyage to the Pacific, where they established a flourishing trade with China that took them past the island of Taiwan. In the 1850s Taiwan was basically closed to foreign trade, and feared as a pirate haven. An officer in Perry's expedition wrote: "one could scarcely realize that a spot so lovely to the sight was the home of a lot of throat-cutting piratical Chinese refugees." But the island's coal resources were known by 1847, when they were surveyed by a British officer, and by 1850 there were regular shipments to the south China coast for coaling western vessels.

Another factor in the emergence of Taiwan at that time, according to Cox, was the Taiping Rebellion, which cut off the flow of rice from the south of China to the north. The war threatened the commerce of the ports, and Taiwan appeared a natural alternative to the anarchy of southern China. Townsend Harris, then a US businessman in China (later a diplomatic representative in Japan) suggested to the Sec of State in 1854 that the US buy it from the Manchus.

The Great Game over Formosa was commenced in 1855 when one Nathaniel Crosby decided to ship lumber out of Oregon to Japan. When Japan's abundant forests became known to him, he determined on establishing some kind of trade, and set off for Taiwan with a cargo of opium. In Tainan he was refused entry but they sent him to Kaohsiung, where he was met by a local leader, the Taotai, probably in Fengshan, who was eager to establish trade relations. Crosby was quite impressed by Taiwan:
"As far as the eye could take in, hundreds upon hundreds of acres of rice and sugar were stretched out. The people appear to have devoted their attention almost exclusively to agriculture and appeared to be happy and comfortable. Cattle too were seen in great abundance."
Sounds nice, eh? However, since Crosby described Fengshan as a gigantic walled city with a population of 300,000 to 400,000 people, his words should probably be taken as mere commercial propaganda. Crosby purchased rice and sugar cheap, and shipped it back to Oregon, where he cleaned up. Unwittingly, Crosby had established the Taiwan trade. Cox writes:
Shippers in the Far West emulated Crosby by sending cargoes of lumber from the Pacific Northwest to China. More important, Crosby's voyage stirred residents of Hong Kong to action. True, other captains visited Taiwan at about the same time as did Crosby, but it was his visit, not those of his contemporaries, that demonstrated that it was both possible and profitable to trade there for items other than coal. When this became known, traders along the South China coast quickly moved to take advantage of the information. Crosby's voyage was clearly the catalyst for the development.
Moreover, previous interest in Taiwan had all been directed at the north. Crosby showed that money could be made in the south as well.

As Cox narrates, other merchants moved in rapidly, including William Robinet and two American firms, the Nye Brothers and Williams, Anthon, and Company. Pooling their forces, they sent off five ships to Taiwan and determined that Takao (Kaohsiung) was the best place to set up trade. They met with the Taotai in Taiwan-fu (Tainan) who let them establish a trading post on Monkey Hill above the port of Takao, and granted them extensive concessions, including a monopoly on the camphor trade and a commitment to do everything in his power to discourage other traders (Crosby was thus betrayed). The Taotai had exclusive control over the island's forests so that he could supply timber for government shipping -- meaning that the camphor trade was his monopoly, from which he derived considerable income.

Of course, other American traders were moving in as well. In the north Augustine Heard had arrived and was trying to get permission to develop the coal deposits there. Though he was refused, he did gain -- you guessed it -- a camphor monopoly. When Robinet showed up he was naturally outraged by this betrayal, mounted cannon on his ships, and assembling his fleet off the coast, declared he would bombard the island if he didn't get the monopoly back, bribery and cajoling having failed. He was hastily granted a "monopoly" but Heard continued to do business in camphor.

Crosby, Cox sadly observes, returned to Taiwan to find the other traders in control, and left. He never came back to the island he had opened for business.

Meanwhile Robinet's business partners had failed and he bought them out. I'll let Cox carry the ball here:
In coming under the sole control of Robinet, the enterprise was passing into most unscrupulous hands. Robinet had been born of a British father and American mother and had lived in the United States, South America, and Hong Kong. He had served as a lieutenant in the Peruvian navy, as consul for Chile in China, and, in 1856, played an important role in the American assault on the barrier forts below Canton. Both through his official services and by marriage, he had important connections in Latin American mercantile circles. But of honesty he apparently had little. When his enterprise on Taiwan collapsed following the rejection of Peter Parker's proposal for American annexation, Robinet resorted to fraud in an attempt to stave off creditors and, when found out, pretended to commit suicide by jumping overboard at sea. Discovered in Lima, Robinet was returned to Hong Kong where he was tried, found guilty, and sentenced to prison. The trial was the sensation of the season in the British colony. At its conclusion, the China Mail commented that Robinet was "both by nature and training unfit to appreciate the duties and requirements of the commercial position to which he aspired." The judge, the paper added, had no choice but to refuse the defendant's plea for release and thus "condemn Robinet's commercial character and put a check on his singular and unprincipled career."
In 1856 things began to slide for Robinet. His business began to fail like the others. The British war with China meant that the threat of the UK seizing the island and dispossessing him of his trade became real. UK merchants were also moving into the Taiwan trade and displacing him from his camphor monopoly. The solution was obvious: if the US annexed the island, Robinet would be free to trade there without interference from the detestable British. Hence he joined forces with Gideon Nye of the Nye Brothers, and together they contacted Peter Parker, the American Commissioner in China. Their goal: to get the US government to annex Formosa.

Parker was both a US nationalist and an evangelical Christian whose heavy-handedness was a source of constant complaint among the Chinese leadership. According to Cox, he saw the opportunity both to increase the territory of the US, and to Christianize the local Chinese.

Both Robinet and Nye wrote separately to Parker, Robinet mendaciously saying that he controlled the island's trade, and Nye mendaciously claiming that among the shipwrecked souls on the island was his own dear brother Thomas. Robinet not only emphasized the possibility of missionizing the locals, but also pointed out that the US should grab Taiwan before the British did.

Parker was soon sold on the idea and forwarded Nye's letter, pointing all the advantages of annexing Taiwan to his superiors. Cox writes:
Since it appeared unlikely that Taiwan would long remain a part of the Chinese empire and there was ample justification for action by the United States, Parker argued that the United States should move quickly. "I believe Formosa and the world will be better for the former coming under a civilized power," he wrote.
Such irony! Meeting secretly, Parker also prevailed on the local US naval commander, J.D. Armstrong, to send a US naval commander to southern Taiwan, according to a US reporter with the Navy, who wrote that his orders were "to proceed to Formosa, and in the city of Fung-shan hoist the American flag and take formal possession of the island." The deviousness of Robinet, Nye, and Parker also infected Armstrong, who told his superiors that he was just sending the officer there to see about shipwrecked American sailors.

However, Nye-Robinet scheme was killed by Sec of State Marcy, part of the outgoing Pierce Administration. When Buchanan came in, he appointed William Reed in Parker's place, and instructed him that on no account was the US to annex Chinese territory.

His hopes dashed, Robinet sold his interest in Taiwan, and significant US trading interest in the island ceased for half a century. The US, which would soon be plunged into Civil War, never did get around to annexing Formosa or even establishing a presence there, as Perry had presciently recommended.

*Harbingers of Change: American Merchants and the Formosa Annexation Scheme, Thomas R. Cox, Pacific Historical Review, Vol. 42, No. 2 (May, 1973), pp. 163-184
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Sunday, August 15, 2010

Kaoshiung Polls: TVBS has Chen Chu out in front comfortably

When last we saw, DPP turncoat and current Kaohsiung county chief Yang Chiu-hsing had formally announced that he was running as an independent in the election for mayor in the new Kaohsiung municipality against current Kaohsiung city mayor Chen Chu and some KMT sacrificial lamb.

The latest TVBS poll has Chen Chu out in front and actually gaining slightly on Yang. TVBS says if the election were tomorrow on May 27, July 29, and August 10, respectively....

Chen Chu..............62 43 46
Yang Chiu-hsing..... -- 26 28
KMT..................... 26 16 14

Chen Chu's gain is within the margin of error of the poll, so it is hard to say how real it is, especially given TVBS' usual underreporting of pro-Green votes.

What is the situation here? Do we have two candidates from the pan-Green, or two from the pan-Blue? The poll has Chen Chu up over Yang 41-36 in Kaohsiung County, and up 52-20 in Kaohsiung city. But the interesting thing is the numbers by previous election choice. According to TVBS, of voters in the 2005 county chief election, Chen Chu gets 60% of the votes that went for Yang in 2005 plus 12% of the KMT votes. Yang, by contrast, draws 35% of the DPP voters in that election but 45% from KMT voters. Similarly, for voters in the 2006 Kaohsiung mayor election that Chen Chu won by a nose, Chen Chu draws 80% of the DPP votes plus 17% of those who voted KMT, while Yang does even worse: just 10% are DPP voters, vs 36% from KMT voters in that election. For the 2008 presidential election, Yang takes just 15% from DPP voters, but 40% from KMT.

In other words, Yang appears to be drawing the bulk of his support from would-be KMT voters -- the light blues and blue-leaning independent voters. Rather than splitting the Greens, Yang has split the Blues. Chen Chu's performance in Kaohsiung has not only assured her support from DPP voters but also won over the bulk of swing voters as well. Another indicator that Yang is drawing support from the KMT is that support for the KMT's Huang has actually fallen slightly since Yang has entered the race.

Meanwhile Yang's complaints about the DPP administration in the South, and the DPP in general, are simply regurgitating the KMT line about the DPP. If Yang wanted to conciliate them and gather up Green voters, he is taking precisely the wrong line. Commentators are positing that Yang's real function now will be to collect votes for Ma and the KMT in the 2012 election.

Good luck with that.
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The Sino-Russian War of 2019-2020


Excerpts From: The Sino-Russian War of 2019-2020: A Preliminary Analysis. Mark Pumps. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe. 2022. (406 pages)

"In 1939 the Army of Imperial Japan invaded Mongolia. In what was probably history's first combined arms battle, the Japanese were eventually crushed by the Russians led by Georgy Zhukov, later a famous WWII general, and their Mongolian allies. Despite its obscurity, Nomonhan, or the Battle of Khalkin Gol, rates as one of history's most important battles. As a result of Japan's embarrassing defeat, the Army's enthusiasm for a Russian war cooled considerably, and advocates of a move south, into the rich colonies of the west, gained correspondingly. The long-term fruit of Nomonhan was the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor....."

"...In hindsight it should not be surprising that China underwent a similar evolution in its strategic thinking during the previous decade. What is surprising was that it took armed conflict to bring it about: it should have been obvious to military thinkers in China that defeating Russia on land would be easier and more remunerative, in terms of resources, than defeating the US and its allies at sea."

"....As Admiral Scott observed in an illuminating article in Parameters in July of 2015, on the one-year anniversary of the US-China naval clash in the South China Sea that fundamentally altered the balance of power in the East Asian littoral:
It is remarkable how so many individuals predicted that China, a nation whose last appearance as a seafaring power was centuries ago, would defeat the United States in a clash on the high seas. The reality was that China lacked a modern tradition of naval success and its efforts were, by and large, though technically ambitious, characterized by immaturity and in execution, by a lack of tactical imagination and a dependence on numbers. Just as at Khalkin Gol in 1939, hubris led in turn to an underestimation of the opponent rooted in institutionalized arrogance. From the startling dearth of American studies at Chinese colleges to overconfidence in China's vaunted missile apparatus....
As Admiral Scott points out, the crushing defeat the Chinese suffered in the South China Sea Incident at the hands of the US navy and its Vietnamese and Indonesian allies was reminiscent of the destruction of the Japanese Army along the Manchurian border in 1939, culminating in the classic double envelopment of August, 1939, by Soviet mechanized forces. The PLAN suffered an immense lost of prestige, especially when the US publicly revealed the results of a daring raid on the Hainan submarine base with remote vehicles that caught a still-unknown number of submarines in port. The radiation leaking from their damaged reactors has rendered the base unusable and the government finally ordered it cemented over in 2016. It is telling that despite the passage of several years, no official memorial has been placed on the site and mentions of the loss are routinely removed from the internet. While the military as a whole also suffered a blow, the South China Sea Incident elevated the prestige of two groups within the CCP: voices that had called for restraint and saw the cries for military adventure and territorial expansion as suicidal folly, and voices that argued that the real goal should not be a few rocks in the South China Sea heavily defended by nations notoriously potent in war, but the vast resources of relatively lightly defended Russian Siberia. Over the next four years arguments for a war against Russia gained ground in CCP councils in Beijing..."

"....the ascendancy of the "northern strike" faction was assured in December of 2017 when the PLA announced cancellation of the navy's second carrier, along with its support ships, and increased investment in its mobile warfare forces as well as in upgrades of the PLA's notoriously spotty logistics infrastructure. While some observers in the west debated whether the target would be central or southeast Asia, with many plumping for a revenge attack on Vietnam, another strain of analysis argued that Beijing was eying Siberia...."

"...nor was Russia idle, but the many logistical problems it faced in mounting a defense of Siberia were insurmountable. Liddell-Hart once remarked of the Trans-Siberian Railway in the Russo-Japanese War that never in history had an army drawn breath through so long a windpipe. Apparently the Chinese had read Liddell-Hart in translation, for their early air and missile strikes not only knocked out that storied line, but all the rail and road lines into Siberia...."

"....with the Finnish-brokered truce, it appears that Chinese possession of the vital Central Siberian Plateau, a craton rich in mineral resources, is now a reality, though likely a temporary one. The few remaining ports in the Russian Far East, encircled and deprived of their home markets, will soon fall into Chinese hands. Repatriation of Russians in Siberia is now ongoing and Beijing is expected to bring in its own people to repopulate the area. It also appears that another war between the nuclear-armed powers is in the offing, for even the new Russian government can hardly tolerate a permanent Chinese presence in what has been undisputed Russian territory for three centuries...."

"... based on its holdings on the former Siberian coast, Beijing has also advanced claims to Russian holdings in the Kuriles currently disputed by Japan but occupied by Russians, creating yet another point of conflict between Beijing and Tokyo. The Japanese Foreign Ministry has rejected...."
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Three More Judges Go Down

I had a lot of fun shooting the east coast from the train the other day coming back to Taipei from Hualien.

Cleaning up the judiciary? Three more judges go down for corruption.
Supreme Court Judge Hsiao Yang-kuei (蕭仰歸) was accused of pressuring High Court Chief Judge Kao Ming-che (高明哲) into clearing his son of hit-and-run charges. Another high court judge, Yang Ping-chen (楊炳禎), was suspected of “ethical misconduct” — including visiting prostitutes and alleged involvement in a collective bribery case.

The Judicial Yuan has referred the three judges to the Control Yuan for further investigation.

The disciplinary panel took action a day after the Supreme Court’s Special Investigation Panel raided 20 locations as part of an anti-graft campaign.

This is the second time that three senior judges have been implicated in corruption scandals. On July 13, three other judges were arrested on charges of taking bribes, leading to the resignation of Lai In-jaw (賴英照) as Judicial Yuan president to take responsibility for the scandal.
The prostitute scandal of Yang Ping-chen was widely quoted in the local newspapers. Apparently the good Judge Yang preferred younger women with large breasts, who had never had sex before. He must have driven his procurers mad trying to find women who could act the part. Judge Yang was also an internationally famous collector of incense burners, and even had a book about his collection put together:
National Museum of History: JINYU QINGLU: YANG BINGZHEN XIANSHENG CANG MING QING TONGLU (BEYOND INCENSE BURNER). Ming and Qing Incense Burners in the Collection of Mr. Yang Ping-Chen. Taibei, 1996. 296 pp. 260 plates in full colour. B/w illustrations and text drawings. Cloth, slipcase GBP 135.00
He had also given exhibitions of his collection.

Soliciting prostitutes is not illegal (being a pro is), but the Judge's employment contract called for him to refrain from such behavior. Local news reports said Judge Yang was extremely wealthy --the kind of wealth that stinks of ill-gotten gains -- and planning to retire early, applying this July. His phones had been tapped for three years.

Looks like they are serious about cleaning up the judiciary. What about the rest of public life?
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Saturday, August 14, 2010

Beijing: Never Give an Inch


Drew and I biked in the hills above Miaoli today. Awesome views at the top of Miaoli 62, but I overheated in the brutal midday sun and had to walk most of this hill as Drew rocketed right up. We rode down the other side through some lovely farming country on 62 and 119. Best part was the people we met -- the farmer who let me use her hose to hose myself down and cool off, saying "Use more water, it's free!" and the other farmer we met who talked about his strawberry fields and gave us a delicious red prickly pear to eat. "I've got strawberry fields back there," said the farmer as he gave us his name card. "Bring your girlfriends over to pick some!" "Haha. Maybe I'll buy some land here and grow my own," I countered. "You'll need low lying land then," he said. "Why?" "Because when the girls come in the summer to pick strawberries," he explained, "they wear those short skirts and bend over...."

So here's the WSJ talking about the "1992 Consensus" in which the two sides agreed to disagree. This was much touted by President Ma early in his Regional Administratorship as the basis for cooperation between the thugs in Beijing and their new friends in Taipei.

Of course, those of us who follow the news know that a couple of years ago Ma's former NSC head Su Chi, who was in on the negotiations, said that the 1992 consensus was invented and that nothing had ever been agreed on. In 2006 Su Chi, then a legislator, said:
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Su Chi (蘇起) yesterday admitted that he made up the term "1992 consensus" in 2000, before the KMT handed over power to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Su said he invented the term in order to break the cross-strait deadlock and alleviate tension.

"[Then president] Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) was not in the know when the term was invented. Lee found out about it later from the newspaper, but he never mentioned later that it was improper," said Su, who was chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council at the time.

Su made the remarks yesterday in response to Lee who, during a Taiwan Solidarity Union seminar on Monday, said that the so-called "1992 consensus" was a fiction.

"Little monkey boy's trying to make up history," Lee said of Su, daring him to respond on the matter.

Fast forward to today. The much touted "1992 Consensus" appears to exist only in KMT heads, according to Beijing. The WSJ reported:
But whether there really was a consensus and what the consensus was became an issue this week.

It started with a senior official from China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, an organization in charge of China’s negotiations with Taiwan, talking about Beijing’s definition of the ‘92 consensus in Taipei on Wednesday, saying “Both sides insisted on the One China principle in 1992.”

Taiwan disagreed.

Taiwan’s Presidential Office and Cabinet both protested within 24 hours, saying Taiwan believes both sides agreed then that there is only one China, and that both sides are entitled to represent themselves. For Taiwan, One China means the Republic of China, the official title of the island, the two Taiwan departments said.

In 1992, both sides agreed to put aside the political disagreements on identifying each other to start nonpolitical negotiations, former and current negotiators said.

“There were agreements and disagreements in 1992,” said Jan Jyh-horng, a former Taiwan negotiator involved in the negotiation in 1992. “If there really had been a consensus, there wouldn’t have been incidents like Beijing launching missiles to the Taiwan Strait in 1996.”

Despite several agreements reached since, and other advances, such as direct flights between the two, Beijing and Taipei remain divided on the ‘92 consensus. Both sides have avoided explicitly talking about their definitions of it in the past two years.

In one major cross-Strait academic conference attended by retired ambassadors and retired military officials in November, attendees from both sides criticized each other over the interpretations. Beijing blamed Taipei for not talking about One China, and Taipei accused Beijing of not mentioning the part about both sides’ right to represent themselves.

Analysts in Taiwan believe Beijing is eager to push for political negotiations with Taiwan after both sides reached an important trade pact in June, but Taiwan’s reluctance to accept Beijing’s interpretation of the One China principle remains a key obstruction.
Some observations:

1. "Pragmatic" and "flexible" President Ma and his government won't budge on the 1992 Consensus. When the Chen Administration similarly wouldn't budge on certain core issues, it was "unpragmatic" and "provocative."

2. The 1992 Consensus wouldn't even be an issue if President Ma hadn't made it one in his campaign and post-election speeches. Further: it wouldn't be necessary to Ma and his government unless he was a True Believer in the ROC mythology. He could just quietly forget it like all his other promises.

3. It would be ironic if political talks foundered because Beijing refused to recognize the principle of some ghostly ROC sovereignty. Ironic because it is exactly analogous to Beijing refusing to talk to the Chen Administration over that Administration's insistence on Taiwan's sovereignty. But don't worry, Beijing will be blamed for this, and everyone will thank all gods that the horrible sovereignty-insisting Chen Shui-bian is out of office and "pragmatic" non-sovereignty insisting Ma is in.

4. Here is the KMT desperately trying to sell Taiwan to Beijing with a few conditions of no particular importance in the long run, and here is Beijing not. giving. an. inch. There's no percentage for them in not. giving. an. inch. But they won't. This is totally consistent with the cut-off-nose-to-spite-face behavior that Beijing always engages in. Engaging in that behavior is even more important than annexing Taiwan.

5. Damn, it was hot out there today. I'm just sayin'.

6. Of course, it may be that the KMT negotiators are out there trying to find an excuse to put off formal and open political talks. Should they engage in political talks before the 2012 election, Ma might well be toast in the 2012 elections.

7. Add your own in the comments.

UPDATE: The Ma-Su Chi version in Chinese is 一個中國、各自表述 "represent" probably doesn't quite capture its meaning (達陳) -- to express, to narrate, according to my man Feiren. The KMT always called it "one country with different interpretations."
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July Political Ads

Some political ads from July. As the election moves closer, the size and quality of the ads appears to be improving.

Thumbs up in Taichung.

This KMT ad at the Taoyuan train station I like very much. It has a number of attractive themes.

Pile of produce + candidate = success?

Another thumbs up, this time in Fengyuan.

KMT ads overlook Yungho.

Every corner has an ad.

A structural feature of ads is that the KMT gets theirs out earlier and in better sites, due to their big money advantage. Here a DPP ad is tucked into the side of a building.

A KMT ad stares out at Taipei.

Awwwww.....

Downtown Taichung.

The DPP's Su in Taichung has proved a strong candidate and is on many signs in Taichung.

Lots of women, as always.

A KMT ad fittingly on one of the new luxury apartments going up in Taichung, since the new construction is a KMT accomplishment.

Taichung ad.

Talking past each other.

DPP candidates in Taichung.

Jason Hu, the popular KMT mayor of Taichung, also appears on many signs.

The DPP's Su towers over a street corner somewhere in Taichung.

Green colors a building.

Cute dominates this KMT ad.

A candidate waves a fist in The Chung.

No, she's not reacting to the color scheme of this ad.

Darkening clouds over this candidate.
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Friday, August 13, 2010

Apologies

Apologies for the light blogging this week. Next week doesn't look like it is going to get any better. Absolutely swamped with work.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

=UPDATED= Yang Chiu-hsing formally announces independent run

First the report:
Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) yesterday officially launched his election bid for Greater Kaohsiung mayor, a move seen as intensifying a crisis for the opposition party in a traditionally pan-green stronghold.

Yang, who lost the DPP primary in May, launched his campaign in the afternoon, telling dozens of supporters it was his “duty and responsibility” to run as an independent for mayor of Greater Kaohsiung.

“It's a very conflicting decision for me, but now I have made up my mind,” he said. “I have been asked to run by business and religious figures as well as local residents who worry about Kaohsiung falling behind. I have the determination and will to make this city a better place.”

However, more than a dozen consultants with the Kaohsiung County Government resigned in protest upon learning of Yang's decision, saying they could no longer support Yang because the move went against Taiwan's interests and popular opinion.

“How could Yang make this decision when Taiwan's fate hangs in this critical [election],” said a statement signed by 13 senior consultants, including doctors, pro-­independence stalwarts, a university president, a company chief executive and a radio producer.

All 13 had been handpicked by Yang, sources close to the county government said. Representatives from the group said more resignations were expected.
I like to ride a century ride -- 100 miles -- each month. I was so peeved at missing a century on Saturday that today I rode from my house up to Toufen and back, 161 kms, 100 miles. This gave me a lot of time to think. I also had a chance to gather up opinions from lots of smart people who share a common love of The Beautiful Island.

First, Yang quits, and what do we see? Mass resignations among his advisers and appointees. Withdrawals of support from DPP councilpersons in Kaohsiung. Ok, so Yang is a problem -- but his entry into the race was met with a strong show of DPP strength and unity. That should also put the fear of god into others who might want to split from the DPP and go it independent.

What are his chances of winning? He has to know: apparently nil. A DPP poll released the other day said:
If the elections were held tomorrow, the DPP’s candidate, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊), would win by a more than 30 percent margin, with 53.7 percent of the vote, against 22.6 percent for Yang and 15.3 percent for Huang.

While Huang would still obtain 38.5 percent support among pan-blue voters, Yang would follow a close second with 34.2 percent. On the other hand, the county commissioner would only receive 15.8 percent support from pan-green voters against 80.8 percent for Chen.
An Apple Daily poll similarly said:
A survey conducted on Aug. 3 by the Apple Daily showed that 43.7 percent of the respondents in Kaohsiung favored Chen, while only 27.18 percent and 20.49 percent would vote for Yang and Huang respectively.
Another way to look at it is to note that in the last election held at the county-wide level, the DPP challenger, Yang himself, won by over 100,000 votes. On the other hand, in the last legislative election in 2008, the KMT outpolled the DPP by 30,000 votes. However, much of the anger at Chen Shui-bian that helped fuel the 2008 results has dissipated over time (thank you, once again, KMT, for locking him up so that Tsai could repair the DPP). Also, it was a different level of election. It is hard to see anything other than Chen Chu cruising to victory at this point. Back in May a UDN survey ranked her as the most popular mayor in Taiwan.

What else is going on? Yang has gathered support from Master Hsing Yun, the head of Fuoguangshan, a former KMT central standing committee member, solidly pro-China. In addition, bosses of several large firms have allegedly backed him, including Terry Gou, head of Foxconn/Hon Hai, according to TV reports. These firms expect to benefit from ECFA. It is interesting that when Yang left the DPP, he immediately began spewing KMT talking points, as reported by the KMT news organ:
During yesterday’s interview, Yang said, “The rising of Mainland China’s economy is a fact. Therefore, it is necessary for the DPP to readjust itself. The DPP should not think that both sides of the Strait are still in a state of hostilities and object to everything for the sake of objection merely based on twenty-odd-year-old ideas.”

Yang went on to say, “Small countries should have wisdom in dealing with large countries. On the other hand, big countries have to treat small countries with kindheartedness and magnanimity.” Yang was paraphrasing words by ancient Chinese philosopher Mencius, which are often quoted by President Ma Ying-jeou during talks on cross-Strait relations.

......

Yang stressed yesterday that the disputes between the Blue and the Green camps had lasted for several decades and they had greatly impacted Taiwan’s economy. Yang said that he had gradually changed his mind and chosen “a third way” in the hopes that the Blue and the Green camps could reduce conflicts so that society would become more peaceful and progressive.

During the interview, Yang said that he supported the recently-signed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) on the condition the number of agricultural products imported from the Mainland not be increased and the government ban the entry of Mainland laborers. Yang said, “If we don’t support the ECFA, Taiwan will become an islolated island.”
In another strange echo of KMT ideals, he also said he wanted to make Kaohsiung like Singapore. It was all uttered as if Yang had never signed off on an anti-ECFA pledge or made other expressions of support for DPP policies. Yang's credibility with DPP voters is probably blown.

Possibilities? Perhaps the KMT will quietly make its own candidate, who can't win, disappear or drop out, thinking maybe it can get its voters to vote for Yang and gather in some DPP votes and maybe get enough votes to lever Yang into office instead of Chen Chu. Or maybe Yang is thinking he can drop out at the last minute and then ask everyone to vote for Chen Chu in exchange for some political deal for a position in the 2012 DPP administration.

Or maybe Yang is just fed up and frustrated and wants to lash out at the DPP. Rumblings of serious trouble have been ongoing. Back in March, for example, Yang accused Chen Chu of using White Terror spying and harassment tactics against him. Stories have circulated that Yang says he ran as independent because he was angry at Chen Chu's treatment of him. Yet there are many ways to respond to such problems, and he chose the worst one of all.

It's a sad loss. Yang had been a competent county magistrate who had garnered much praise from the public. He might have continued as a competent manager in some other post.

Meanwhile in Tainan Mayor Hsu continues to criticize the DPP's primary process, which has caused much division within party ranks, and talk of an independent run.

UPDATE: Yang himself had this to say about his own experience, which he dates to Morakot, according to an interview yesterday on CTI, the pro-KMT cable network:
Kaohsiung County Executive Yang Chiu-hsing yesterday granted an interview to CTI television and stated that he hoped that the DPP would reexamine the course it had chosen to chart, adding he had already done so. Yang said that he had previously been a member of the deep-Green camp, but added, “I would like to apologize to society for my past views and words.”

Moreover, Yang said that, previously, he had indeed suspected that President Ma Ying-jeou would “betray Taiwan,” however, after having spent time with President Ma in the aftermath of the 8/8 Flood, he changed his mind. Consequently, Yang said that he would be remiss if he didn’t publicly correct his past doubts about Ma’s intentions as well as apologize to society for his past ideology.

Yang added that “Taiwan is already an independent country and no one could really sell out Taiwan.”
The Liberty Times also ran a piece today saying that Yang Chiu-hsing had changed during Morakot. During the discussions about what to do with the aborigines Yang had adopted the KMT line that they should not be returned to their villages. Big money was backing that position, as I wrote at the time.

Read that second paragraph there. The entire island watched Ma Ying-jeou say one stupid, ignorant, obnoxious, arrogant, rude thing after another, and watched the indifference of himself and his government in handling that disaster. Yet Yang Chui-hsing became a Ma convert after that.

Yeah right. It had nothing to do with the Big Money that was backing the KMT's position.

But note the date -- this was August of 2009 -- at that time Yang basically says he changed his commitment. Folks, that was a year ago. This whole thing about Chen Chu being arrogant is looking like simply another way to attack and split the DPP, like his adoption of KMT talking points and repudiation of everything he has ever stood for. The litany of complaints dating back months are smoke and mirrors. It also sheds a new light on Chen Chu's behavior if indeed she was arrogant and dismissive of Yang. Perhaps she knew something other observers missed.

Oh yeah, one more thing. Yang formally announced his bid on AUGUST NINTH. One year to the date that he woke up to the blasted landscape of Morakot and KMT leaders crawling all over his turf. What a coincidence that he announced his flip-flop on the anniversary of the day he developed his man-crush on Ma Ying-jeou.

He's been planning this for a year.

What a vicious little joke the date of the announcement is.
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Monday, August 09, 2010

Daily Links, August 9, 2010


The east coast, seen from atop Niu Shan. I'll be biking there this weekend!

BLOGS:

MEDIA:

WAY COOL:

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Sunday, August 08, 2010

DPP Splits

DSCF2523
Seen on an ATM: Attention! The gangster may use the English operation interface to cheat you!

An aspect of the KMT Adminstration's drive to place Taiwan in China's orbit that the international media seldom comment on is role of ECFA and other agreements in supporting local political arrangements. One of these was bluntly pointed out by President Ma yesterday when he claimed that ECFA will create 34,009 (note, that is "09" exactly not "10" or "08") jobs in the five municipalities in Taiwan. Not coincidentally, the year end elections have the mayoral positions for those five municipalities up for grabs, and in all of them the opposition is performing well at this point.

In Kaohsiung DPP politician Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) has split the DPP -- apparently -- by formally announcing that he is running in the mayoral election for the Greater Kaohsiung Municipality. The pan-Green papers had quite a bit of commentary, with some arguing that Yang may well split the KMT vote since he will need KMT support to make his candidacy go. He has received endorsement from Master Hsing Yun, the pro-China head of Fuoguangshan, it is also reported.

Yang's chances of winning in Kaohsiung are nil; pro-DPP voters will vote overwhelmingly for Chen Chu. Voters in local elections are usually quite saavy -- recall that when James Soong ran for Taipei mayor he got only a handful of votes. Also, the vote consists of both Kaohsiung city and Kaohsiung county. Chen Chu's narrow victory in the last election corresponds to only part of the electorate. In the last election for Kaohsiung County chief in 2005, the DPP polled 353,232 votes to the KMT's 244,015. That coupled with the Kaohsiung city vote likely means that Chen Chu can lose a few thousand votes to Yang and still win. However, the winner of that 2005 Kaohsiung County Chief election? Yang Chiu-hsing. So there may be some sentiment out there for him still....

Yang may inspire another DPP politician in Tainan to go it alone. Reportedly, Tainan Mayor Hsu Tain-tsair (許添財) will jump into the race in Tainan since he lost the party primary.

Compare the actions of these two politicians with those of the loser in Taichung, Lin Chia-lung. Lin was decisively beaten by Jason Hu in the last election. He has gracefully stepped aside for Su Chia-chuan this time around. If only everyone in the DPP had that kind of common sense and class.
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Why the International Media Sucks: Case #7961

Argh. AP's report on the upcoming frigate sale.... (Taipei Times, FOX entertainment) has an offensive, outrageous pro-China slant. Let's take a look. The opening paragraph:
A Taiwanese newspaper reported Thursday that the U.S. will sell the democratic island two warships, a move that would almost certainly anger China and further undermine Beijing's already tense relations with Washington.
1. The report says that Beijing will be angered, though this has not occurred yet. In fact that sale is not slated for approval until some time from now, and the systems involved are old and minor. Note that we are told only Beijing's projected response, not the US nor Taiwan positions on this sale. From the beginning Beijing's perspective dominates.

2. The sale "undermines" relations, a viciously negative word that again adopts a pro-Beijing viewpoint. Neutral words for effect abound in English: alter, affect, impact.... Further note that undermine normalizes Beijing's anger as a response. One could have written with equal fairness and greater respect for the truth that Beijing's policy of "being angry" undermines relations between Beijing and Washington.

After describing the proposed sale, the article continues:
Any new sale of U.S. military hardware to Taiwan could be expected to incense China. The mainland and the island split amid civil war in 1949, and Beijing sees third country involvement in the island's defense as interference in its internal affairs.
1. The bullshit "split in 1949 amid civil war" formulation again. No need to reiterate.

2. Of course we are told Beijing's perspective again. No perspective from Taiwan on how it might see Beijing. Nor are we ever told in this article why the US might want to sell weapons to Taiwan or why Taiwan might want them. The premise of the article is that the weapons sale occurs in a political and military vacuum which it disturbs.

3. Again we are told Beijing will be incensed. The article does not convey that "being incensed" is a policy decision, not a visceral reaction. The article does not provide any support for this claim, such as a quote from an expert:
A political scientist at National Taiwan University, Professor A. Frank Quisling, argues that Beijing....
Nor why Beijing will be "incensed" over the sale of two 40 year old subhunting ships, except for further down it mentions Beijing's "anger" over the last arms sale. The article also nowhere suggests that it might be inappropriate to become angered over such a puny arms sale.

Finally, wouldn't it be a good idea to wait and see what Beijing actually does, rather than propagandizing for its policy of using "anger" to manage its relations with foreign countries and to impact foreign media reporting?

AP then says:
Long dormant tensions between Washington and Beijing resurfaced last month when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told an Asian forum in Hanoi, Vietnam, that the U.S. regarded settlement of a series of territorial disputes between China and several Asian countries in the South China Sea as being in America's national interest.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry described those comments - and Clinton's demand that the disputes be resolved through multilateral negotiations - as "an attack." China prefers to address the disputes bilaterally because it believes that approach works to its advantage.
Again we are given the Chinese perspective. No context is given for Sec of State Clinton's announcement, because of course such a context would reflect negatively on Beijing. Imagine if that paragraph had begun In response to recent aggressive moves by Beijing.... I'll bet the editors of AP wonder why people read blogs... Although the last sentence, which hints that maybe Beijing might be a bit of a bully, moves in the right direction.

Finally, the laugher:
Washington transferred recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but is legally committed to helping Taiwan defend itself against possible Chinese attack.
Dear AP: it is now 2010. The text of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) has been publicly available for thirty-one years. Maybe someone in the AP editor's office should read it, because nowhere in it does it require the US "to help Taiwan defend itself against possible Chinese attack." But just in case anyone is confused, please read this post, also written in response to the same AP eff-up three freaking years ago. Time to stop writing that shit, really.

Meanwhile AFP, always ready to step up to the plate and hit one out of the ballpark for Beijing, spewed:
A Chinese envoy who was shoved to the ground by a pro-independence politician on his last visit to Taiwan shrugged off the incident as he returned to the island Sunday.

"I respected Taiwan's judicial ruling" on the attack, Zhang Mingqing, the vice president of China's quasi-official Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, said after flying into Taoyuan airport.

The incident occurred in October 2008 when Wang Ting-yu, a councillor in Tainan, and a group of his supporters pushed Zhang over as the Chinese envoy was touring the southern Taiwanese city, a hotbed of anti-China feeling.

The fracas was caught on camera and triggered fury in China, with the Beijing government calling for "severe punishment" of the attackers.

Wang was convicted of assault in September last year and sentenced to a four-month jail term. On appeal, that was reduced to a fine of 122,000 Taiwan dollars (3,800 US).

Nowhere does this article report that it is likely he only fell (see my long post with many links including videos) or even that there is an alternative story, or that the video is ambiguous, or that Zhang is a thug who has many times threatened to murder everyone in Taiwan who does not agree with his political stance. A totally slanted piece. Compare this with Taiwan News more balanced approach which takes in all sides and reports Zhang's actual role:
Zhang Mingqing, a vice chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, visited a park near a Confucian temple in Tainan when he was surrounded by opponents of China’s claims of sovereignty over Taiwan and landed on the ground.

Zhang accused his opponents of pushing and shoving him, but the accused said he had fallen over a tree root.

.....

Zhang first gained prominence in Taiwan as a spokesman on Taiwanese affairs in the years when China regularly issued threats against the island to underline its claims of sovereignty.
I don't actually expect AFP to improve; I merely place this here as additional data.
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