US says Siew did say nutcase things to Burghardt

I had some trouble believing that KMT Vice Presidential candidate Vincent Siew would meet with Raymond Burghardt, Chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), our officially unofficial representative body here in Taiwan, and tell Burghardt all kinds of crazy things about what the DPP was planning to do, but confirmation arrived yesterday from both the American side and the KMT side. The KMT yesterday held a press conference to announce the list, putting a brave face on inevitability. A-gu has the complete list, ranging from batshit insane claims like the DPP plans to assassinate its own candidate, to outrages like accusing Chen Shui-bian of running over his own wife to generate sympathy, to things that are normal, like making videos about candidates.

Concurrently, the Taipei Times was reporting that unnamed US officials were confirmed that Siew had made statements that were remarkably similar to what was reported in the media as released by a DPP legislator.

"In the conversation with Siew about all the `dirty tricks' issues, Siew mentioned all of them to Burghardt. Siew told Burghardt that these were the rumors that were floating about Taipei. Burghardt did not know any of the stuff that Siew was telling him," the official said.

Burghardt did not initiate any conversation about the dirty tricks, and at one point in the meeting the AIT head did not understand what Siew was referring to, and had to ask Siew to write the Chinese characters for "dirty tricks" (aobu, 奧步) so he could better understand Siew's points, the US official said.

Siew brought up stories about possible DPP "plans" for assassinations, disturbances and incidents in the Taiwan Strait, all of which Burghardt "had never heard before," the official said.

The official was especially concerned about suggestions that Burghardt expressed Washington's preference for the KMT over the DPP.

"He would never say anything like that. It is simply not true. That's complete baloney. Burghardt would never say anything remotely like that," the official said.

"We don't side with the KMT. That's why Burghardt met with Bi-khim. He's closer to her than he is to Vincent, frankly," the official said.

The official said that the topics brought up during the meeting as reported in the Taiwanese media were basically accurate -- but that statements attributed to Burghardt were not.

In the AIT version, Siew presents these claims as street talk, rumors. The KMT made them on its own behalf in the press conference, however.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [media]

Korea at a Crossroads

We've recently been discussing the Korean economy on this blog, which the European Chamber of Commerce says we really ought to emulate. Feiren flipped me this wonderful piece from FEER on Korea's economy and the upcoming election (it's pay to view, so only half is here). See any similarities with our situation in Taiwan?

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In meeting this change, whoever is elected will face a number of issues over the next five-year presidential term.

North Korea remains a concern, but after almost 10 years of off-on engagement, South Koreans have become rather disinterested. Of greater concern to most Koreans is how the country can position itself in the face of a rising China. Government experts and business leaders have been talking about an economical sandwich between high-end Japan and low-end China for 15 years. Now the sandwich has become a vice-grip. As China gets better doing what Korea does—autos, shipbuilding, electronics—the vice is tightening. The fear is that Korea will be crushed.

Businesses have been responding by rushing offshore, and especially into China. But many in Korea still fail to grasp what is happening. In the country's development phase, the purpose of companies such as Samsung, Hyundai, LG and Daewoo was nation-building. Now Korean companies, like the counterparts in many countries around the world, are driven by the need to increase shareholder wealth. Many outside business instinctively feel that the Samsungs and LGs still serve the nation. What they fail to appreciate is they are not moving into foreign markets to save the nation, but for corporate survival. Thus while Korean companies go abroad, giving jobs to foreigners and paying taxes to foreign governments, foreign companies coming in may still be viewed with suspicion by many Koreans because they are "only motivated by making profit."

A few years ago, government experts decided that, to survive, Korea should become a regional logistics and research and development hub. The idea of being a regional financial center was suggested by foreign financial players and added to the strategy. Businesses and media fell into step with government thinking and "hub" became the fashionable word of the day.

But several years later, Korea is not a logistics hub. It is not an R&D center. Neither is it a regional financial center. Furthermore, it doesn't look as if the country is even starting to become any one of these three. The explanation comes down to a nationalistic and defensive way of thinking that is so deeply ingrained that it is shared by the frontrunners and unlikely to change. That way of thinking has two basic ideas: One is government must take the lead in the economy and the second is that Korean firms must be competitive and even take a leading position in any hub that is centered in Korea.

The reason these ideas are hard to change is because until now they worked so well. Korea developed in 40 years from a "bullock-cart economy," as one American official described it in the late 1940s, to advanced nation status under government leadership. The government decided on the industries to go into and pushed the conglomerates in the direction it wanted. Korea looked like a capitalist country, but in many ways, given such controls and ownership, it was centrally planned.

What the new government must learn to do is set a vision, create the right legal infrastructure — and then sit back and allow it to happen. In other words, let the market work. As the Hyundai man and wizard mayor of Seoul, Lee Myung-bak is hardly likely to take such a position. His approach is build-it-and-they-will-come, as typified by another of his projects as Seoul mayor, a development called the Seoul International Finance Center. In this vein, he has promised to build a canal the length of the country, from Busan to Seoul, saying it will reduce transportation costs. The issue of Korean businesses having to dominate explains why government has dragged its feet making the necessary regulatory changes for Korea to be a financial center. While outsiders assume the idea is for Korea to become a real financial hub like Singapore, the Korean bureaucrat, implementing policy and interpreting regulations, still believes his job is to make sure Korea has the advantage which means ensuring Korean companies are in a competitive position.

Thus, as Korean players like Shinhan Bank, KB, and Mirae Asset Management go from strength to strength, fear of foreign players will ease. The main reason that foreign private equity funds have been unfairly targeted in recent years by prosecutors, regulators, tax officials, lawmakers and media—in short, by the leadership of Korea Inc.—is simply because there were no Korean private equity funds until recent legal changes made them possible.

Another important area if Korea is to become a truly market-driven economy of advanced nation status concerns the rule of law. Respect for law is low because traditionally it was used by the powerful to disadvantage the weak. A 2002 World Bank Rule of Law index put Korea 8th from the bottom among OECD member states, below Hungary and above Italy. In the past, political power maintained a form of equilibrium. Not so long ago, when prosecutors descended on someone's home, the victim would call a friend in the presidential Blue House before contacting his lawyer.

A historical, if unsung, achievement of the current president, Roh Moo-hyun, has been to limit presidential authority by removing executive controls over prosecutors. (However, he has failed to limit their powers of investigation, or curb their abusive techniques.) In what seems like a remarkable development in egalitarian Korea, perceived public opinion, as expressed through the media and by civic groups, has moved to some extent into the vacuum created by the departure of authoritarian power. Thus not only will prosecutors investigate cases, but also decision makers will decide, according to a perception of what "the people" want. What Koreans call the unwritten Law of Public Sentiment takes precedence over actual law. Foreign private equity funds walked into this buzz saw when the press reported that, as they were registered in tax havens, they were getting away without paying taxes.

This environment of vague national vision, whimsical regulators and weak law is conducive to the corruption, tales of which fill the daily newspapers. In fact, there is such a merry-go-round of corruption that it is hard to imagine it ever stopping. Everyone criticizes conglomerates which come under fire for entertaining and giving gifts to regulators, politicians and journalists, when they know that, if they didn't, their business would suffer. Again, none of the presidential candidates seem to have a grip on the corruption question.

Education remains a perennial problem in Korea. Life for youngsters in Korea is a build up to a multiple-choice-type university-entrance examinations which seems to only test how well a student has memorized reams of facts. By their last year of high school, most are sleeping four hours a night. The irony is that this wrecking of childhood years is all for a higher education in a system whose standards are, academically-speaking, shockingly low. Seoul National University is the only Korean institution in this year's Times Higher Education Supplement World University Rankings 2007, coming in joint 51st place with the University of Texas, behind one Singaporean, three Japanese and three Chinese colleges. The other Korean universities are nowhere in the international league tables. The country spends more than any other OECD nation on extracurricular learning and hundreds of thousands of school kids, not just university students, are going overseas for a proper education.

The three leading candidates all agree that government should interfere less and allow schools more autonomy. Whether that means much remains to be seen. Education reform has been on the cards for years, but so far, governments have only tinkered at the edges.

Such problems combine to create a low level of trust in leaders and institutions. Each of the country's four democratically elected presidents in the last 20 years has experienced a similar journey in terms of popularity through his single, constitutionally limited, five-year term. Immediately after the election, popularity has been high. Many who voted for losing candidates felt they made a mistake, as if the idea were to guess the winner, and switched their support to the new president. Then a scandal or two followed by a failed policy or two, has ensured that by the last year, the president's own party forces him to give up party membership to stop him from "interfering" in the choice a candidate.

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Failure to be a regional logistics hub? Failure to become regional financial center? Low faith in public institutions? Lack of rule of law? Prosecutors run amok? Educational reforms failing? Nationalistic economic policies? Fear of getting crushed by China? Presidents with fading popularity? Investments in 1970s style large public infrastructure programs instead of 21st century economic policies? Yes, it's very clear we've successfully emulated the Korean experience.

[Taiwan] [China] [East Asia] [Korea] [Japan]

Chaoyang Foreigners in the News Again

The China Times had another piece on another foreigner at my university today. Again, it isn't me.

曾爆發外籍教師對學生罵髒話的朝陽科技大學，又有一名外籍教師出狀況！據指出，該校應用外語系外籍講師王馬克因涉及性騷擾學生，經學校系、院、校教評會三級三審後，決定解聘或不續聘處分。這項處分案，近日內就會送到教育部核備。

The foreign teacher, 王馬克 (I'm 麥哲恩) was the subject of an investigation over the summer for the sexual harassment charges, as the paper correctly reports. The investigation process (which I had no part in, or contact with) was, from my outsider's perspective, bending over backwards to be fair, extremely thorough, and came to conclusions I felt were substantially correct. The second paragraph notes that it was an old case that frustrated the school because the students, though they discussed that teacher's alleged behavior amongst themselves and with other teachers, including me, none would file a formal case. It's hard to understand, but in Taiwan the System is almost never proactive -- it is administrative in nature, and won't move until a case is opened by someone affected. That is true whether one is discussing the police or education.

From the standpoint of truth-value, the two cases could not be more opposite. The case I blogged on the other day (referenced above as 爆發外籍教師) is utterly exaggerated, but this one is pretty much correct, at least from my perspective. Note the underlying cultural prejudices hard at work: the intersection of sex and foreigners is just too much to resist. They're rogering our women! is a clarion call in every culture.....

[Taiwan]

Suicide, Taiwan, and the KMT

ESWN offered a rare criticism of the KMT yesterday with this post on a KMT ad that was juxtaposed with a story about a shopowner who had killed his daughter and son before turning his knife on himself. ESWN translated the ad and then the words of the blogger:

[translation: Governance: Blue is better than green. In 1990, there were 2,471 suicides when the KMT ruled; in 2006, there were 4,406 suicides when the DPP ruled (new historical high).]

Previously, the KMT has a series of such advertisements about governance. In the previous three days, they focused on economic growth rate, unemployement rate and rich-poor gap. This is what the 'blue' camp is good at. The 'blue' camp want to talk about the economy whereas the 'green' camp want to talk about referenda. It makes sense for the KMT to use these statistics as their weapons.

But today's theme shocked me. The KMT brought up the number of suicides! ... The conclusion suggested by the KMT as that since the number of suicides went up during DPP rule, 'blue' must be better than 'green.'

I don't mind about wranglying between political parties, with occasional dirty tricks. These political risks are the crosses the politicians must bear. But isn't it disrespectful to the dead to invoke their deaths as political weaopns? While a frequent issue in Taiwan is the economy, did all 4,406 persons commit suicide due to the ineptitude of the DPP? Many of them were probably lovesick, or troubled by chronic illness. Should the deaths of these people be blamed on the DPP?

It's funny -- and sad -- that the blogger who "leans blue" is shocked by the behavior of a political party that killed so many people in Taiwan. What do these people expect? That murderous record is the real reason for the harping on suicide.....as I noted once before:

Why the mention of suicide? The KMT has a problem: the first two leaders, Chiang Kai-shek and his son, Chiang Ching-kuo, were out and out murderers. The Party killed tens of thousands in Taiwan, and millions on the mainland. This is a hard reputation to live down.

Nevertheless, it is trying. How? As Christian Schafferer points out in a recently given paper, during the anti-Chen campaign of last fall, the Hong Kong rag Yazhou Zhoukan ran a cover story that claimed that 16,000 had committed suicide over the years of the Chen Administration, and that this score exceeded the numbers rung up by the KMT during the White Terror years on Taiwan. The suicide claim is not an isolated claim designed to make Chen take the blame for Taiwan's complex economic problems. It is a deeper claim aimed at whitewashing the KMT for its crimes against humanity and stemming the tide of justice for just a little longer.

The advertisement also constructs reality in another way -- the date used is 1990, the peak of the Bubble economy, when Taiwan felt itself rich and invincible. It should be unnecessary to point out that statistics were routinely cooked in those days as well. The KMT also lies to its readers in another way: the economy is doing fine; it is stagnant incomes that is the problem.

I suspect, though can't prove, we're looking at another effect of globalization -- the slow introduction of the "casino economy" that is busily destroying the social fabric in the US with the development an economy in which a few people garner all the winnings at the expense of the working and middle classes. As Mark Ames convincingly demonstrates in his brilliant Going Postal, the destruction of traditional employee-company relations during the Reagan Administration led to a rise in mass slayings at places like post offices (one of the first victims of privatization) and later, factories and workplaces. In Taiwan, I suspect rising suicide rates reflect the same pressures that make Americans "go postal." As I often half-joke with my students, the difference between Americans and Taiwanese is that when Taiwanese are angry at others, they kill themselves....as the social fabric in Taiwan frays, more and more elderly are receiving less and less care. UPDATE: as a commenter notes below, as Taiwan's population ages, suicide rates rise, because the elderly are far more likely to kill themselves....

The CNA published another poll on suicide this morning, noting that:

A recent Department of Health report on suicide prevention suggested that suicide rates across Asia were on the rise.

While a ratio of 18.84 in every 100,000 people in Taiwan committed suicide last year, that figure was 25.2 in South Korea, 24.2 in Japan and 18.6 in Hong Kong, according to the report.

In addition to the economy, other factors are at work, including, surprisingly, perhaps climate. As this paper points out, suicide in Taiwan rose steadily after 1997, as this paper from 2006 points out:

Throughout the period of this study, from 1997 to 2003, the total number of suicide deaths in Taiwan was 18,083. Of the 18,083 suicide deaths, 67.6% were male and 74.7% were aged over 64 years. There were 2161 suicide deaths in 1997, 2173 in 1998, 2276 in 1999, 2463 in 2000, 2773 in 2001, 3049 in 2002, and 3188 in 2003, with their respective suicide rates of 12.8, 12.7, 13.1, 14.0, 15.6, 17.0, and 17.6 per 100,000 population. There was an upward trend in the suicide rates in Taiwan from 1997 to 2003. Across the entire study period, the monthly male suicide rates (per 100,000 of the population) ranged from a low of 1.12 in January 1999, to a high of 2.55 in May 2003, with a mean of 1.63 and a standard deviation of 0.31. The mean monthly female suicide rate was 0.81, while the respective mean rates for adults and elderly were 1.03 and 2.83.

Three-fourths of suicides are elderly. The paper finds significant associations between ambient temperature and suicide, after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations:

In our study, only a positive correlation between temperature and suicide rates was found in the ARIMA model after adjusting for trend and other seasonal factors. That is, temperature was the only climatic variable noted in the present study which had a primary influence on suicide and was not mere recurrence in line with the seasons. This finding is in accordance with previous studies conducted in European countries and Canada (Souetre et al., 1987, Preti, 1997 and Marion et al., 1999).

Maes et al. (1995) demonstrated that higher ambient temperatures predict low l-tryptophan availability among healthy volunteers. This could possibly aggravate suicidal impulses in vulnerable people. Since the influence of ambient temperature noted in this study was adjusted for trend and seasonal factors including month of the year, the deviations of monthly mean temperatures from the expected mean temperature for that time of year, rather than absolute ambient temperature, might be much more important for suicidal death as suggested by Marion et al. (1999).

Global warming leads to suicide? The authors point out it is not high temperatures per se, but deviations from expected monthly mean temps that trigger suicide. The last ten years have broken all sorts of heat records, and for many, especially the elderly whose weather expectations are formed over a lifetime, the heat must be quietly traumatic. In addition to the factories leaving for China (mid-1990s) and the Asian Econ Crisis of 1997, another bump in the suicide rates in the late 1990s was caused by the 9/21 quake. Another paper tracked the effect of the development of new methods of suicide on suicide rates in the late 1990s -- charcoal burning as suicide method was widely portrayed in the media as a painless mode of suicide. The result was a rise in suicides attributable to the introduction of new methods. Note how the trend is trans-national:

This study examined the method-specific trends of the affected populations after a new method of suicide was introduced. The data reveal that the increase in overall suicide rates of 23 and 39%, in Hong Kong and urban Taiwan respectively, after 1997 were largely attributable to the increase in charcoal burning and other gas poisoning suicides. The finding that urban Taiwan also had a substantial increase in suicides by charcoal burning and other gas poisoning confirms the view that that the problem is not limited to Hong Kong.²⁴

On one point I agree with the pro-Blue blogger ESWN found -- suicide should not be a political football. Each mention of it in the media, whether a description of a case, or a charge by the KMT, has the potential to cause more suicide. I'll leave the reader with this absolutely terrifying paragraph on copycatting and the media from the paper on charcoal burning:

Durkheim rejected imitation as having any influence on suicide rates because he believed that imitative effects have limited geographical radiance²⁸; his 19th century observations, however, may have little relevance for our "global community" of the 21st century. One ethnographic investigation in Hong Kong showed that people chose charcoal burning because they were prompted to use the method by newspaper reports²¹: the first charcoal burning suicide victim in Taiwan explicitly stated that he learned of the method from a Hong Kong newspaper website. Alarmingly, the method has recently spread to non-Chinese societies: during late 2004, there was a charcoal burning suicide pact involving seven teenagers in Japan. This sparked six more charcoal burning suicide pacts resulting in 22 deaths in two months.²⁹ Hence, charcoal burning suicides should not be viewed solely as a Chinese or local health problem. We speculate that the reason Asian countries seem to be the first to be affected by charcoal burning suicides was because of the local media’s tendency to report regional news. Nonetheless, if cases of charcoal burning suicides start to take place in other regions and are widely publicised, or when one case receives wide international media attention, charcoal burning suicide may have a great impact on the suicide rates in non-Asian populations. We are concerned that the recent wave of international reports of Japanese suicide pacts using charcoal burning may already have publicised the method in other countries. There is no reason to expect that the features associated with suicide by charcoal burning—for example, easy accessibility, no body disfigurement and high lethality, should be perceived as attractive only by the Asian populations.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [media] [2-28] [suicide] [Chen Shui-bian]

Vote Buying on the Rise?

A-gu blogged on a United Daily News article on the apparent rise in vote buying driven by the lucrative new legislative positions.

An article in the United Daily news indicates that vote buying in the new single member districts has become rampant due to the lucrative nature of the new seats. An unnamed local in Taichung tells the prices of the vote buying net.

A community leader (鄰長) -- an elected official -- may be chosen to lead the effort in his community (the smallest administrative unit in Taiwan, apparently), and is offered a one time payment of NT$300,000 (a marked increase over the old price of NT$50,000). These community team captains will then wait until about a week or two before the election and offer up to NT$1,000 for individual votes. Their timing will make them harder to catch in all likelihood.

The CNA offered a story on vote buying cases as well:

Taipei, Dec. 17 (CNA) Prosecutorial authorities have handled 3,597 vote-buying cases involving a total of 5,948 defendants during the run-up to the Jan. 12, 2008 legislative elections, Vice Justice Minister Chu Nan said Monday.

The tallies, which cover data available as of Dec. 14, show that the Taichung Prosecutors Office has handled the largest number of cases at 779, while the Tainan Prosecutors Office and the Yunlin Prosecutors Office have handled the second and third-largest number of cases at 351 and 314, respectively, Chu told the Legislative Yuan's Judiciary Committee.

On cases related to the March 22, 2008 presidential election, prosecutorial authorities nationwide have handled 59 cases involving a total of 104 defendants, Chu said.

In light of the novelty and complexity of the vote-buying methods employed, Chu noted, law-enforcement authorities have deployed 4,162 informants to facilitate investigation of vote-buying cases related to the legislative elections as of Dec. 7.

Vote buying is an old habit in Taiwan's elections, because elected positions are so lucrative (see my primer). The KMT cultivated vote buying at the local level during the 1970s and 1980s, and as a result, spending on key posts in irrigation associations or farmers cooperatives came to resemble outlays on US senatorial campaigns, so lucrative were the opportunities. With the legislature shrinking to only 113 seats, each seat will have that much more power. Given the advantages enjoyed by incumbents, legislators will be retaining their seats for years to come, giving them even greater control over the flows of government money to local organized crime, business, and clan coalitions, the foundation of Taiwan's domestic political economy. Don't look for any changes to the System for many years to come....

UPDATE: ESWN translates an article from the pro-Blue United Daily News (UDN) on vote buying tactics. Some nice detail here, and a discussion of how vote buying patterns have changed in the face of government attacks on them.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [media]

Siew tells AIT DPP plans to assassinate own candidates

The best party is but a kind of conspiracy against the rest of the nation.-- Lord Halifax

The secret meeting between Raymond Burghardt, Chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), our officially unofficial representative body here in Taiwan, and Vincent Siew, the Vice Presidential candidate for the KMT, the officially unofficial pro-China party in Taiwan, was splashed all over the media this week, to much merriment on the part of observers here. The Taipei Times offered this account this morning....

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) yesterday dismissed media speculation that the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) had pressured the KMT to identify who leaked the minutes of a secret meeting.

"I have not received any such information. I also have no comment," Ma said in Ilan when approached by reporters about the meeting between his running mate, Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), and AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt earlier this month.

The Chinese-language Apple Daily, which published what it said were minutes from the meeting, reported yesterday that AIT was upset by the leak and urged the KMT to probe the incident.

The private meeting between Siew and Burghardt was not disclosed until Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Sandy Yen (莊和子) on Friday informed Chinese-language newspapers including the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times' sister newspaper) and the United Daily News.

Burghardt arrived in Taipei on Dec. 8 for a four-day visit. During his stay, in addition to meeting President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), Burghardt met publicly with Ma and Ma's DPP counterpart, Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), and expressed concern over the DPP-initiated UN referendum.

Yen said Siew and Burghardt met for one hour on Dec. 8.

The minutes, which have not been confirmed as authentic by either AIT or the KMT, seemed to suggest the US favored the KMT.

I suppose you'd have to be living on a moon of Jupiter to not realize by now that the US favored the KMT. The minutes were reproduced in several news stories, but TVBS provided three juicy ones in its report that ESWN translated:

When AIT chairman Raymond Burghardt came to visit recently, he met with KMT vice-president candidate Vincent Siew. During the meeting, Siew spoke about three foul plays by the DPP. Foul play #1: President Chen does not like his party's candidate Frank Hsieh, and so Hsieh will be assassinated in order to make way for Su Cheng-tseng to become the candidate. Foul play #2: On the 228 march or the 314 anti-Chinese-anti-splittism-law march, riots will occur that lead to imposition of emergency laws that will postpone the election. Foul play #3: Assassinate the KMT candidate.

The Taipei Times continued:

The alleged minutes said Burghardt had asked Siew about rumors that Chen could resort to destabilizing tactics in order to ensure victory for his party in the upcoming elections.

The minutes said that Siew, in response, said the KMT was concerned the DPP might stage a disturbance ahead of the presidential election to create a situation that would justify declaring martial law.

Burghardt also inquired whether the KMT presidential campaign office maintained secret channels of communication with Chinese authorities, to which Siew replied no, the minutes said.

The minutes also said that Burghardt asked about the long-stalled arms budgets, including funds to purchase PAC-3 missiles.

Burghardt allegedly expressed concern that if the KMT wins the presidency and advisers to Ma are against arms procurement, this could hinder US arms sales to Taiwan.

Siew said he would ask Ma to pay particular attention to Burghardt's concerns.

Siew confirmed that a meeting occurred, but denied that it offered UFO conspiracies to Burghardt -- the KMT simultaneously refused to confirm or deny anything that was said, but demanded to know who had leaked the minutes. The rest of the meeting seems pretty natural for an AIT-KMT shindig. The only reason that the news reports on the conspiracy claims shouldn't be dismissed out of hand is the KMT's penchant for such talk. Although I admit that positing Chen Shui-bian would have Frank Hsieh assassinated is a bit over the top, even for the KMT....I would pay money to have seen the look on Burghardt's face when Siew said that -- if he really did.

As if on cue, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a report to the Legislature that claimed that US Taiwan ties aren't really so bad...

Taiwan's upcoming legislative and presidential elections and the referendums to be held alongside them are not affecting the country's bilateral ties with the United States, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Tzu-pao said Monday.

Yang said while delivering a report at the Legislative Yuan Foreign Affairs Committee that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has repeatedly stressed to the U.S. government that the referendum on Taiwan's bid to enter the United Nations as a full member under the name Taiwan will not alter the political status quo across the Taiwan Strait and is by no means a move toward Taiwan independence as Beijing has claimed.

It's funny, because everyone inside the US government keeps saying that ties between the two sides are at an absolute nadir. Ah well, you say tomato, I say fan chieh.....

[Taiwan] [KMT] [DPP] [media]

Another fine moment from Taiwan's media

Judging from the inquiries I have received, I don't have much choice but to blog on this: this tale in China Times about the teacher at my university isn't about me:

大學校園爆發外籍老師口出穢言、種族歧視爭議！朝陽科技大學應用外語系某外籍老師，近日遭學生指控在課堂上辱罵學生「Chinese dog」（中國狗）、「fuck you」（幹）、「hooker」（妓女），學生群情激憤，要求校方立即解聘這名老師。

I wasn't going to blog on it to avoid giving the story more play than it already had, but since it is now out in the TV news......

Because this matter touches on an ongoing internal investigation and disciplinary matters at the university, I will not comment on specifics. Just take this article as a typical example of the balance, restraint, and gravity of the local media.

UPDATE: English version

Daily Links, Dec 15, 2007

Lots of nourishing stuff on the blogs this week:

Fili blogs on cheese. It's everywhere in Taiwan now. And gets his fortune told.

Pashan goes to Pull Out Knife Mountain.

Formosa Neijia sees I am Legend (check out the poster)

Jerome Keating says the US has made a secret deal with China about Taiwan. Jerome also has a few choice observations on the claim that Lee Teng-hui told voters not to vote DPP, which turns out to be another bit of disinformation from Agence France Presse.

Pinyin News blogs on Ma's shifting stand on English education.

David blogs on the opening of human rights memorial at a former political prison in Chingmei.

Mark has a great blogpost comparing Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul.

Red A has a good post on the housing market, and how to calculate what you need. I'm with you Red; I can't pull the trigger on a house here either.

Talking Taiwanese has another strong post, this one on the university system here.

ACADEMIA: The new eJournal Taiwan in Comparative Perspective is out in force and everything is accessible by simple download of .PDF. Here's the TOC

Articles

‘Communism’ in Taiwan and the Mainland: Transmission of the Great Leap Famine and of the White Terror
Stephan Feuchtwang

Death-Scapes in Taipei and Manila: A Postmodern Necrography
Paul-François Tremlett

The Intrusive Rendering: Dictation of Stereotypes and the Extra-Ordinary
Doreen Bernath

Commentaries

The EU Two-Level Sovereignty System as Model for Taiwan and China
Bengt Johansson

Ethnicity in the Politics of the Unreal
Allen Chun

The 'Red' Tide Anti-Corruption Protest: What Does it Mean for Democracy in Taiwan?
Fang-long Shih

There are also book reviews of Mark Harrison's new book. Those of you into Chinese history might want to take a gander at Frog In the Well's Asian History Carnival.

BLOGS: Dre alerted me to Taiwaneil. The Real Taiwan has started a photo forum.

MEDIA: The transcript of Tom Christensen's roundtable comments on the referendum are here. The Onion parodizes China's Sha Zukang, the disarmament official who once said China's no-first-use nuke policy might not apply to Taiwan. The Establishment thinktank Council on Foreign Relations has a paper on the EU's China strategy. Dan Bloom compares renaming the Murderous Dictator Memorial to tearing down the Berlin Wall. China urges Taiwan's military to join forces to oppose independence.

SPECIAL: Enjoy this clinically insane account from Chinese-owned Taiwan TV station TVBS that ESWN collected this week:

When AIT chairman Raymond Burghardt came to visit recently, he met with KMT vice-president candidate Vincent Siew. During the meeting, Siew spoke about three foul plays by the DPP. Foul play #1: President Chen does not like his party's candidate Frank Hsieh, and so Hsieh will be assassinated in order to make way for Su Cheng-tseng to become the candidate. Foul play #2: On the 228 march or the 314 anti-Chinese-anti-splittism-law march, riots will occur that lead to imposition of emergency laws that will postpone the election. Foul play #3: Assassinate the KMT candidate.

[Taiwan]

Minimum Differentiation, Maximum Identification

I've stressed often in this blog that one important driver of identity politics in Taiwan is structural: on a range of important issues, the two parties have very similiar views. The one reliable difference between them is the pro-Taiwan stance of the DPP and the pro-China stance of the KMT. Hence, at the national level, both parties tend to stress that. From that perspective the renaming of the Memorial Formerly Known as CKS must be seen as part of the normal electoral dance between the two parties, one that allows each to send out appeals to their identity-based electorates.

Two articles came out recently that illustrate this similarity between what are essentially two nationalist, center-right pro-business parties very nicely. The first is a Taiwan Journal piece that reviews the economic policies of DPP Presidential candidate Frank Hsieh and KMT Presidential hopeful Ma Ying-jeou. After highlighting the two candidate's economic proposals, the piece concludes:

While the business world pays attention to the two candidates' cross-strait policies as a touchstone, in reality, both men are seen as having few differences in essence. Being viewed as more open in this issue, Ma promised to readjust the current 40-percent investment cap for Taiwanese companies in China. Opening Taiwan to tourists from China through direct transportation links is also included in his policy. "Not only entrepreneurs but also farmers hope for direct flights, because the latter can sell their fruit in China," Ma argued. "This is intended not to encourage Taiwanese investors to flow into China, but to assist them in making profits there and bringing them back to Taiwan." However, Ma said that the local agricultural marketplace would not be open to Chinese imports, and China's blue-collar workers would not be allowed to work in
Taiwan.

Hsieh said he approved of direct flights, but only on a charter-flight basis. He also proclaimed that an evaluation system designed to manage companies' investments in China is a must, adding that anything to do with national defense and agriculture must be strictly monitored. Hsieh pointed out that he is not against Taiwanese businessmen having closer ties with China, but every case should be handled on an individual basis.

Note that Hsieh's policy in practice amounts to having no restrictions on cross-strait investment at all, because such "review" processes in Taiwan are typically toothless. By contrast, Ma says he will "adjust" the cap, implying that it will remain. Both candidates plan to keep Chinese labor out of Taiwan, a sensible policy followed by virtually all of China's neighbors. Those of you on the East Coast can take heart for prosperity is on the way -- Ma plans industrial corridors there, something that was discussed back in the 1990s but fortunately was never realized.

Similarly, the conservative Jamestown Foundation has a piece out on the KMT's defense policy that begins by emphasizing similarities with the DPP, but then also moving on to differences:

The KMT's overall strategy is similar to what the DPP has proposed in many respects. For instance, DPP-affiliated anlaysts have proposed a variety of CBMs [confidence building measures] as well. Moreover, President Chen has also pledged that Taiwan will refrain from developing nuclear weapons. Perhaps most surprisingly, however, especially given the prolonged and highly acrimonious debate over the unprecedented arms sales package that Washington approved in April 2001, the KMT's defense strategy also appears to share some common ground with the DPP's preferred approach when it comes to determining the appropriate level of defense spending. Specifically, both parties support raising defense spending to at least 3 percent of GDP. The KMT and DPP also both favor improving Taiwan's defense industrial capabilities. In addition, both parties support making the transition to an all-volunteer military service system to enhance the professionalism and operational capability of Taiwan's armed forces.

I must repeat: if the KMT was really serious about the 3% level, all it has to do is get the legislature moving, since it controls the legislature. Ma Ying-jeou talked about that 3% level twenty months ago in his visit to the UK, and the KMT hasn't done jack about it since.

Meanwhile, on the subject of the island's political leadership, AmCham's Richard Vuylsteke left a parting blast reported in today's China Post:

The past seven years have witnessed an unhealthy -- and often unseemly -- evolution of leadership that pursues cross-faction and cross-party rhetorical vendettas, sows unnecessarily disruptive ethnic discord, and exhibits a profound pettiness of personal interaction that has soured the public image of political factional and party leaders, Dr. Vuylsteke notes.

"Nasty innuendo, false and unsubstantiated claims, bogus statistics, and a seemingly endless string of legally frivolous lawsuits dominate media reporting on current leaders and their interactions," Dr. Vuylsteke points out.

Political leaders have made little effort to cultivate public understanding of critical issues that seriously affect public welfare and economic well-being, Dr. Vuylsteke goes on. They have failed to make research and reflection to substantively address issues that worry the man in the street.

While I deeply respect and applaud AmCham's focus on the practical and necessary.... see, for example, Vuylsteke's comments below....

The American business executive cites sewage treatment as example. Currently, Taiwan has a 16.68 percent level of household connectivity to sewage treatment island-wide. The policy goal is to increase it to 22.1 percent by 2012. By comparison, South Korea's coverage currently stands at 87 percent. Taiwan's shortfall compared with its neighbor is unconscionable.

"Real leadership, at both municipal and national levels, would take on this issue -- informing the public of the threat this appalling state of affairs poses in terms of drinking-water safety and disease control, plus its potential negative impact for the development of water sports, fishing, and other recreational activities along river and ocean shorelines," the commentary says.

...it would be possible to take Vuylsteke's commentary more seriously had its lead not been The past seven years.... indicating AmCham's longstanding pro-KMT bias -- and thus, its complicity in the creation of this Taiwan it ostensibly deplores -- as well as proffering a fantasy world in which none of these attitudes and issues is older than seven years. Yet I can remember AmCham complaining about the sewage issue back in the 1990s, when DPP rule was only a remote possibility (the earliest AmCham White Paper on their website dates from 2002, and mentions sewage as a problem twice). As I said, the business community has internalized KMT talking points as if they were cogent commentary, and it is sad to see Vuylsteke engaging in such behavior here. All the nastiness that Vuylsteke identifies is easily identifiable in the KMT period as well..... Good luck in Hong Kong, Dr. Vuylsteke.

Vuylsteke's instancing of sewage as an example of failure here also shows another driver of identity politics at the national level: the KMT political economy that still determines the shape of political activity here. The KMT created widespread institutional corruption in Taiwan to purchase the loyalty of local faction and clan leaders. In exchange for permitting them to enrich themselves, the KMT did not permit local faction leaders to operate at the national level. One result is that local development issues generally do not become national development issues -- instead of the whole nation commenting on the massive, and massively stupid, industrial development project down in Mailiao, it is simply a matter between local Yunlin politicians and the relevant national government development entities.

Since "local" issues do not become "national" issues, public policy discussion at the "national" level is highly impoverished, limited to "national" issues like national identity and China policy. Sewage? That's a local issue....

UPDATE: Feiren also notes the pro-KMT slant of AmCham's recent comments, in its 2007 White Paper:

First of all, let's keep in mind that this is not up to the people of Taiwan, it's up to the government of China. The DPP government has wanted to negotiate with China about flights to and from China for years, but China insists that Taiwan first recognize the One China principle that Taiwan is part of China before it will discuss this issue. By disingenuously appealing to the people of Taiwan on this issue AmCham is inserting itself into Taiwanese politics on behalf of the KMT in an inappropriate and unseemly fashion.

[Taiwan] [China] [East Asia] [Korea] [Japan]

Nelson Report on China ADIZ route

Last week officials in Taipei expressed alarm that China was upsetting the balance in the Taiwan Strait:

Taiwan has expressed concern over China's plan to draw up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) within the Taiwan Strait to submit to the International Civil Aviation Organization and pass on to other countries, the government said yesterday.

An ADIZ is an area of airspace usually along a national boundary within which identification of all aircraft is required for national security reasons.

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) said that Beijing planned to create an ADIZ to prevent the US and Japan from gathering intelligence on China.

Beijing is also planning to inaugurate a new air route on the Chinese side of the median of the Taiwan Strait, he said.

This week's Washington insider report, the Nelson Report, discusses the matter:

++++++++++++++

But issues remain, clearly. We note a pending PRC request to the ICAO (the international aviation authorities in Montreal) for a new civilian route which just happens to go down the Taiwan Strait in ways which could...could...seriously impede Taiwan defense issues, and so which by definition could involve US interests.

Our experts say that at least part of the issue is the same as raised by the Hong Kong problem...the degree of PLA decision-making authority in areas which, in this day and age, are more often relegated to the civilian officials of a government.

The PLA still controls all air-route decisions in China, we are told.

If so, then you cannot escape asking tough questions about additional motives for the route request at this time...given all else that has happened and is happening as Chinese officials at all levels express rising anxiety over Taiwan as the March elections approach.

And on the flip-side of the Chinese request...if Taiwan had more status at the international aviation decision-making authority, it perhaps could react to the PLA route request with less anxiety?

A concerned observer sums up for now:

"But the irony is the way in which domestic politics plays on each side of the Strait in shaping the issue and the US role. On the Chinese side, options concerning civilian aviation are constrained because the PLA controls the airspace over the Mainland, a reflection of the military's continuing political power. But it's not clear to me at least why, in this 21st century day and age, the PLA should necessarily continue to control the all the airspace. At some point, that should no longer be an immutable reality.

On the Taiwan side of the equation, it is the United States that usually supports Taipei in organizations like ICAO when there is a real problem. This looks like it might be a real problem: nibbling away at the island's strategic depth. But CSB's approach to the current elections campaigns, and Washington's belief that he has paid too little attention to American security interests, may have reduced greatly our incentive to carry Taiwan's water in ICAO."

++++++++++++++++++++

Here is a perfect change for Washington to protest a change in the status quo where its own interests are concerned.

[Taiwan] [China] [Kitty Hawk] [missiles] [US] [US Navy]

Promises, Promises

This week Chen promised not to declare independence for the remainder of his term, which is kind of like me vowing never to dunk a basketball for the rest of my life.

In an interview with the Associated Press after his meeting with Burghardt, Chen dismissed reports that he was planning to declare independence.

He said such reports were Chinese propaganda designed to influence US decision-making on the matter and to scare Washington into intervening in next year's elections and referendums.

Meanwhile, the AIT confirmed yesterday that Burghardt had met with Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and with Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), Ma's Democratic Progressive Party counterpart.

The AIT refused to reveal when the meetings had taken place or what was on the agenda.

Sources said Burghardt met with Ma shortly after he arrived in Taiwan on Saturday at Ma's campaign office. Ma's running mate Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), KMT Legislator Su Chi (蘇起) also attended the meeting, they said.

"We talked for a long time, touching on a wide number of topics. The talks proceeded in a friendly atmosphere, but I can't tell you details on the basis of the principle of good faith," Su said.

Burghardt met with Minister of Foreign Affairs James Huang (黃志芳) yesterday afternoon. Huang told journalists afterwards that although Taiwan and the US had different opinions on some political issues, the overall US-Taiwan relationship remains sound.

"There is still lot of room for communication between the two sides," Huang said.

Hsieh thanked Burghardt for the comments the following day:

Promising to mend relations with the US if elected, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) yesterday thanked American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chair-man Raymond Burghardt for his concern over the impact the UN referendum could have on the nation's next leader.

"His remarks were warm-hearted and well-intentioned," Hsieh said, adding that he agreed with a lot of what Burghardt had said.

Burghardt, who met with President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) at the Presidential Office on Monday, warned Chen not to make any decisions during the remainder of his term in office that would cause problems for his successor.

Chen was interviewed by AP on the independence thing:

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian pledged Monday that before he steps down in May 2008 he will not declare formal independence _ a move China has long warned would spark a war.

"Some say I will do something unexpected during the election season, including declaring independence," the unpredictable Taiwanese leader said in an interview with The Associated Press. "This is completely not the case."

Chen made the comments immediately after holding a two-hour meeting with Ray Burghardt, the most senior U.S. envoy responsible for Taiwan relations.

Washington has been concerned that a planned referendum in March on whether the island should join the United Nations could be a precursor to a declaration of formal independence.

It seems incredible that people could think Chen would declare independence with the legislature controlled by the pro-China parties, no support for an immediate declaration among the populace, poor relations with his most important ally, and major elections coming up. But if it is reassurance the US wants, by all means, give them that.

Burghardt met with Ma Ying-jeou on Saturday when he arrived in Taiwan, as well as with Ma's running mate Vincent Siew, and KMT legislator Su Chi, head of the National Policy Foundation (which generates propaganda for the KMT). The connection is interesting, for the European Chamber of Commerce invited Su Chi to speak at their luncheon on Jan 18 about the legislative elections. They also invited Shen Fu-hsiung, the DPP turncoat, to speak. Now you know why the ECCT's understanding of Taiwan is so deficient, and why so many foreigners in the business community repeat KMT talking points as if they were pearls of cogent wisdom.

Hsieh, facing the Japanese press in Taipei on Monday ahead of his upcoming trip to Tokyo, promised that he would never turn from his pro-independence views, but would seek dialogue with China. Hsieh and Ma have very similar policies -- Ma is following Lee Teng-hui's program of co-opting DPP economic and political strategies, something that made Lee popular in the 1990s. Both Hsieh and Ma advocate a free trade agreement with Japan, but Hsieh also wants some kind of security arrangement with Tokyo. Stephen Yates, the former Cheney aide, remarked on Saturday that Japan sees China's move against Taiwan as a dry run for the kind of tactics that will one day be deployed against Japan.

[Taiwan] [China][US]

Miscellany

Meteors
This weekend, Dec 13-4, we're getting a huge storm.

According to McBeath, the Geminids are predicted to reach peak activity on Dec. 14 at 16:45 GMT. That means those places from central Asia eastwards across the Pacific Ocean to Alaska are in the best position to catch the very crest of the shower, when the rates conceivably could exceed 120 per hour.

"But," he adds, "maximum rates persist at only marginally reduced levels for some 6 to 10 hours around the biggest ones, so other places (such as North America) should enjoy some fine Geminid activity as well.

Legislature
Two great posts over at A-gu's site. A summary of the effects of the new districting plan from the China Times -- if you read one post this month, this should be it -- A-gu's own thoughts, plus this prediction. A-gu has done great work on the legislative election.

Name Changes
Names of villages in southern Taiwan will revert to their old aboriginal names.

Fifty years after it was renamed, local councilors in Sanmin Township (三民), in Kaohsiung County, unanimously voted on Monday for a new Aboriginal name for the township, effective January 1.

"The seven-member township council has ... unanimously agreed to change the township name to Namasiya Township (那瑪夏)," Mayor Husong Istanda said in a telephone interview.

[Taiwan]

Book Review: Notes from the Other China: Adventures in Asia

Notes from the Other China: Adventures in Asia
By Troy Parfitt
Algora Publishing, 201 pages
(Amazon, $34.95)


Troy Parfitt sent me a copy of his new book Notes from the Other China: Adventures in Asia, a travel book that takes the reader with Troy on his experiences in Korea, Taiwan, Nepal, Vietnam, and elsewhere. The result is an extremely accessible, well-written, and generally lively account of that will no doubt make a major contribution to the GDPs of those countries through increased tourism.

Notes consists of 18 chapters. I thought the opening section of the book, on Parfitt's experiences in Korea, was by far the strongest, marked by experiences that are riveting and informed by an authentically rough narrative. After a short detour through the Philippines, Parfitt then takes us through several chapters on Taiwan, and from there, to Nepal and Vietnam.

Roughly a fourth of the book is devoted to Taiwan. These chapters consist of items that give a rather one-sided picture of the island, such as a chapter on Mormon missionaries, another on Nazi symbolism in Taiwan, and yet another that is largely a hack on Vice President Annette Lu (who is hardly representative of anything, let alone Taiwan politics). These topics appear to have been introduced largely as foils for Parfitt's considerable talent for snark. In fairness, this section of the book has probably the weakest fit for a travel tome, since it lacks the constant flow of change that makes a travel narrative so interesting.

The sections on Cambodia and Vietnam present a series of vignettes of life on the road, and a few meditations on the road's addicting habit of offering the traveler flickering imagery culled, barely-understood, from real life. The trip to Vietnam, which consumes most of the second half of the book, offers a stream of wacky, wonderful experiences of tourism in Vietnam, from the hassles to the highs. This section of the book is extremely engaging. Parfitt takes us through the major tourist sites, many of which are war-related, while at the same time issuing a running commentary on Kissinger's book on the war, which he carried with him for part of the journey. Some choice observations on Americans and Canadians are offered as well, including a shot at the Canadian habit of sewing the national flag onto one's backpack before heading off into the great unknown:

As for kidnappings, these happen to Canadians too, and I have never heard of an account where a Canadian was abducted only to be released upon the discovery that he wasn't American.

Much of strength of this section, which I enjoyed very much, comes from Parfitt's tone, which at last hits its stride, maturing from snark into a kind of matter-of-fact wryness that is gently enjoyable:

After 20 minutes the Australian still hadn't received his rice, and predictably, there was another eruption. At one point he actually went into the kitchen to yell at the proprietors. Incidentally, I waited 40 minutes for my own meal to make an appearance, but it didn't matter. The clam chowder was spot on; straight from the can, just like Mom used to open it.

From the Vietnamese guide with "serious issues" about history to the American he nicknamed Marijuana who videotaped a lunatic on a rampage at a bar, after reading Parfitt's account I was sorely tempted to hop on a plane to Hanoi, in the hope of meeting all the outlandish characters who apparently populate the tourist routes in Vietnam. And so will you be, too.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention the launch of the book is this Saturday, the 15th, in Taipei, but fortunately islaformosa did in the comments below:

I'm the creator of Troy's website http//www.troyparfitt.com

Check it out for more, particularly the regularly updated blog excepts that are outtakes and b-sides.

Just wanted to add too that The Notes from the Other China book launch will occur on Saturday, Dec. 15 at Taipei's PS Cafe located just northwest of the Zhongxiao-Dunhua MRT/intersection. The address is 181 Dunhua S. Rd. Section 1. Their phone number is: 2776-0970.

Troy is going to do a brief reading, and we'll be all having some wine.

See you there and check out the site!

[Taiwan]

Views of the Legislative Elections

Max Hirsch of Kyodo News has a nice article on the upcoming legislative election in January, which in many ways is the more important of the two elections. The whole thing is here:

++++++++++

As eyes turn to Taiwan's presidential race, the outcome of which will impact on key security interests for Japan and the United States, another electoral showdown with arguably more important consequences draws near.

Wednesday marks one month before Taiwan's general elections in which the island's ruling and opposition camps lock horns in races whose implications are reaching past parliament to reshape the overall political landscape.

For starters, the general elections Jan. 12 will serve as a litmus test for the presidential election on March 22, observers say. Whichever party beats its rival in parliamentary elections will pass on to its presidential candidate ''decisive momentum.'''

'A victory in general elections typically works out to be a big advantage going into the presidential election -- it enables a party to be seen as a winner, and voters like a winner,'' says Michael Boyden, director of Taiwan Asia Strategy Consulting.

That message is not lost on the opposition Nationalist Party amid speculation that a ''pendulum effect'' could turn a parliamentary win into a black mark for the presidential election.

That is, Taiwan -- which in 2000 emerged from nearly 60 years of sometimes brutal, one-party rule by the Nationalist Party (KMT) -- may not be ready to see one party dominate both the legislative and executive branches.

Hence, voters might swing back to whichever party that lost the parliamentary elections when casting their presidential ballots -- a scenario that KMT heavyweights dismiss.

''We need a victory in parliamentary elections in order to win the presidency,'' says KMT Secretary General Wu Dun-yi. ''Keeping our majority in parliament will give us the momentum we need before the presidential election.''

The KMT has enjoyed majority status in parliament since the lifting of martial law in 1987.[Nit: Actually, the pan-Blues had a majority; the largest single party was the DPP until last year when several members quit.]

In 2000, the Democratic Progressive Party pushed the KMT from the Presidential Office after the DPP's Chen Shui-bian won the presidential race that year -- a victory he repeated in 2004.
Next month, the DPP hopes to clinch parliament with at least 50 seats for itself and seven for allied parliamentarians in the unicameral, 113-seat body, says Chen, who also serves as DPP chairman.

The KMT seeks ''65 to 70 seats,'' says a KMT insider.

''Street cred'' and ''stature,'' Boyden says, will go to the presidential candidate whose party wins majority status in parliament.

Beyond implications for the presidential race, however, the general elections' outcome could radically alter Taiwan's relations with Japan and the United States, the island's chief security benefactor.

A halving of the parliament from its current 225 seats to 113 in the next session, for example, will see key legislative committees merge.

And among the committees to merge, Wu says, are the National Defense and Foreign and Overseas Chinese Affairs committees.

Combining those committees will put one group of parliamentarians in charge of both defense and diplomacy bills, by far the most important legislation in terms of relations with Tokyo and Washington, says Kharis Templeman of think tank Taiwan Foundation for Democracy.

Hence, how that committee is stacked as a result of the parliamentary elections will play a key role in foreign relations.

The sheer power of parliamentarians on such a committee, Templeman says, ''isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having a few powerful committee members could make it easier to negotiate across party lines. We could see quicker responses to foreign policy issues put to the legislature, like weapons systems offered by the U.S.''

Parliamentary gridlock led to Taiwan's stalling on a huge U.S. arms package, offered to the island in 2001.

The DPP blames the opposition for killing some 65 bids to consider the package in parliament, while the KMT slams the DPP for poorly budgeting the proposed weapons.

The parliament finally passed a reduced package earlier this year, allotting funds to buy a defensive missile system and antisubmarine warfare aircraft from Washington.

But Taipei's dawdling seriously damaged ties with Washington amid concerns there and in Tokyo that Taipei does not take its defense seriously.

China, which vows to unify Taiwan with the mainland, threatens to attack the island if it formalizes its de facto statehood.

Those threats concern Tokyo because any conflict in the Taiwan Strait could result in U.S. military intervention, which in turn could drag Japan's Self-Defense forces into the fight via a joint defense pact.

With both the DPP and KMT vowing to pass future arms bills, however, a streamlined parliament boasting more powerful incumbents promises to ease gridlock.

Thus, while the presidential race looms large in gauging Taiwan's future ties with key partners, it is the island's next parliament, and the impact of general elections on the presidential race, that pack the most political wallop, both at home and abroad.

+++++++++++++

A-gu has been putting together a wonderful tool for assessing the election, an interactive map on the Google Map platform. It's right on his blog; have a look.

[Taiwan]

US Runs Interference for Beijing Again

In the last couple of weeks Tom Christensen of State, Steve Young of our own American Institute in Taiwan (AIT; the officially unofficial US representative organ here), and now Raymond Burghhardt, Chairman of AIT, have told Taiwan the DPP UN referendum is a bad idea. Ralph Jennings of Reuters has the call:

The United States on Tuesday criticized Taiwan's plan to hold a referendum on U.N. membership repeating its line that it would upset the status quo with neighbor China which considers the self-ruled island its own.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party plans to hold the referendum alongside presidential elections in March, ignoring warnings from Washington and Beijing.

"Just the process of having a referendum will make it harder to develop relations across the Taiwan Strait," Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the U.S. government's American Institute in Taiwan, told a news conference.

"It isn't going to accomplish anything in changing Taiwan's international status."

The United States is Taiwan's biggest ally and the institute is its de facto embassy.

Burghhardt is entirely correct: the referendum won't change Taiwan's international status -- because China has a veto in the UN. Since it can't change Taiwan's status, why have a succession of US officials criticized it? US officials certainly must be aware that by hacking on the DPP referendum, they are in effect (1) running interference for Beijing, saving it from playing the heavy and affecting the election; and, (2) making election points for Ma Ying-jeou. I can't help but add that while the US calls press conferences of Taiwan media reps to object to the DPP's referendum as "altering the status quo" it says nothing about Chinese missiles. The Status Quo in US hands is just a club to beat Taipei with......

Burghardt also added that the referendum will make it harder to develop relations across the Taiwan Strait. AIT's history is a bit thin, there. Chen has made repeated overtures to China, but China has repeatedly indicated it will not talk to the DPP. The relations problem is not a Taiwan problem, and the State Department is talking to the wrong side. Just look at all the neighboring nations China has friendly relations with......China is not a normal country -- it has no friends.

It should also be noted that the whole relations issue is very narrowly construed. As far as I can see Taiwan has very good relations with China -- $100-150 billion in investment and a million of its citizens are relating there even as we speak. If China was really concerned about the referendum, we'd see concrete action on its part against Taiwanese interests there -- but not a peep is heard. Thousands of Taiwanese enter and leave China on a daily basis, and a flourishing underground banking system takes their cash to and from the Communist state, and not a sou or soul is molested. Instead of concrete action on its own behalf, which might be costly in terms of investment and political backlash, China has the US running interference for it. This enables Beijing to intervene in the island's election at no cost to itself. Instead of concrete action, what we hear are throaty complaints, whose main purpose is to sway media discourse and keep the Bush Administration in line. Instead of China taking the hit, the US-Taiwan relationship bears the cost of this misguided policy. This is what Beijing defines as a win-win situation -- it wins coming and going.....

I think maybe the DPP ought to figure out a way to incorporate the US campaign against the referendum as a positive point in its election appeal -- "Hey folks! With one vote you can give the raised middle finger to both Beijing and Washington!"

[Taiwan] [China] [Kitty Hawk] [US]