Friday, September 15, 2017

TweetThinkin: Aaron W on the New Taipei City race

A Thai restaurant grows its own herbs next to the road

My friend Aaron Wytze tweets:

1. Great piece at Journalist (新新聞) about the DPPs lack of good candidates for 2018 New Taipei City, my thoughts:

2. After 12 years of KMT admin, and lackluster performance by Eric Chu, the DPP have a real chance at winning New Taipei in 2018

3. The KMT (and potential candidate Hou Youyi) should be very worried about Chu's near loss in 2014.

4. But the DPP really doesn't have a shot at New Taipei with the current rank of declared candidates.

5. Half DPP candidates are mired in current or future problems. Both Wu Pingjui and Lo Chicheng have extramarital affair scandals simmering

6. There's a case for William Lai to swoop in at last minute (as @michaelturton suggested) but remember, he doesn't poll great in the North

7. Recent likability polls for New Taipei mayoral candidates even has the KMTs Hou Youyi beating Lai on Election Day 2018

8. But still, there is a desire within New Taipei City for change. So if DPP can't field anyone who can win against Hou, what do they do?

9. My prediction: don't count out a run by NPPs Huang Kuo-Chang. If the DPP allows it. My bet is, they would. Here's why.

10. NPP need to keep the momentum going for their party in the media. A run by Huang would help boost NPP city councilors in their 2018 run

11. The current DPP HQ New Taipei City leader, is former crooner Yu Tien, an ally of Yu Shyi-kun's faction.

12. The Yu faction put a lot of resources behind NPP legislator runs in 2016; Yu allies helped run NPP campaigns

13. Plus, if the campaign to remove Huang from office is successful, it may not hurt him if he decides to run in 2018.

14. Young people will be fired up to vote for Huang if he's removed from office or not. youth vote was instrumental for DPP in '14 & '16

15. So what's my advice for DPP? If there's a better candidate for New Taipei in 2018, get the hell out of the way.

16. The DPP were fresh in '14 & '16, and young people were looking for change. But performance of Lin Chuan has soured a lot of youth

17. Worse still, Lai has kept a lot of the original appointments of Lin Chuan. Including the much hated Chang Ching-sen (張景森)

18. If Lai does run, he'll have to answer questions for cabinet left over from Lin Chuan. Thats a blemish on Lai and he hasn't even started

19. If anything is for sure about 2018, young people will once again play a decisive role in who gets elected. Hope the DPP remembers that
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Anonymous said...

What does it take to get a deep green president for once? *sigh*

TaiwanJunkie said...

"What does it take to get a deep green president for once? *sigh*"

I feel your pain.

Like it or not, I do find Tsai's approach quite commonly seen in business transitions.

Daughter's ballet teacher recently bought a rival ballet studio. He kept the old name on the building, he kept the website featuring the old owner and the old program. He also brought in new students as well, and these new students are under his new name. But in reality all of the new and old students are all going to the same classes and going through the same program. As the old students warm up to the new name and enjoy the new teachers, the old name will gradually be discarded over time.

If we look at professional services such as doctors and dentists, they do the same as well. A new dentist buys the practice and its patient panel as well. The old dentist stays on per contract for the next 3 years. For the old patients, the new dentist is just a "new partner" at first. Overtime, as the patients get used to the new dentist and develop affection and loyalty to him as well, the old dentist gradually fade out, and after the contracted 3 year time frame, he announces his retirement and "hands over" the practice to the now trusted "new dentist."

As much as we trash the KMT and dislike its political objectives, it did govern as a form of "benevolent authoritarianism" and allowed for a relatively bloodless transition to democracy. Therefore, the old signage of ROC still has some appeal for the public at large, much like the ballet students and the dental patients. Tsai's approach of slow and gradual transition will fully transition Taiwan to a normal country from the inside out. I'm pinning my hopes on President Lai as the first President of the Republic of Taiwan circa 2024.

Anonymous said...

How did this appear in The Diplomat?

Is that author on drug or something?