What will Trump do? + Links

A small shrine tucked away in a field

NYTimes reports that Taiwan moves to shore up its central american friends, but the really ominous thing wasn't the possibility that they might bolt, but what happened in Nigeria, where Beijing forced the Taiwan office to move, is far more dangerous. Diplomatic allies are not as important as the everyday engagement Taiwan has with nations all over the world.

This week, another move showed that even countries without diplomatic ties to Taiwan could still isolate it further. On Wednesday, Nigeria ordered Taiwan to move a representative office in the country out of the political capital, Abuja, to Lagos, the country's commercial hub. Nigeria has not had official diplomatic relations with Taiwan since 1971, so it doesn’t have an embassy in Abuja to move; instead, Taiwan was forced to move its trade mission, one of about 50 unofficial representative offices it has around the world.

That mission had been serving the small Taiwan factory investment community there. China offered to sink $40 billion into projects there... wonder how much will actually appear. Meanwhile the US is spending billions bombing wedding parties and barbecues in the Middle East. Hmm......

Another problem: Trump again says "one China" policy up for negotiation. This comment is entirely lacking in definition, though it is widely reported. What does he mean? Though Bonnie Glaser says China is preparing for rocky relations in 2017. If someone senior in the administration would contact me, I would be most grateful. At The News Lens Wayne Pajunen writes:

Among the ongoing tit-for-tat of Trump tweet vs. CCP bark, keeping in mind the Chinese proverb: a barking dog never bites (會叫的狗不會咬人), PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) responded, “China is paying close attention to developments,” Wang said. “I can clearly say that no matter whether the Tsai Ing-wen authority, any other person in the world, or any other force, if they try and damage the one-China principle and harm China’s core interests, in the end they are lifting a rock only to drop it on their feet.”

Beijing is always very careful to respond only with threatening rhetoric while never drawing lines in the sand demarking tangible retaliatory actions. To date, the uncertainty created by CCP bluster has been sufficient to deter the democratic nations to do Beijing’s bidding and isolate Taiwan.

"The barking dog never bites" may also apply to Trump. It's maddening how little concrete information there is about his Administration's views and plans. Rosalyn Hsueh in WaPo writes on his trade policy with China, while Michael Pillsbury argues that Trump can stand up to China without provoking a war.

Shirley Kan: China's military provocations ARE NOT mere responses to Trump
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Daily Links:

• Finally! Gangsters swept up after violence at public hearings
• Taiwan needs to end practices like Indonesian slavery aboard Taiwanese fishing vessels if it ever wants to make friends
• NYTimes: Taiwan moves to shore up its central american friends. Russell Hsiao in The National Interest explores this problem. 
• US lawmakers introduce Taiwan Travel Act to encourage high level exchanges
• Cute: Singapore sings for the return of its armored vehicles but China is using them to pressure Singapore to reduce relations with Taiwan
• VOA: Tsai meets with ranking Republicans: why?
• NCCU removing a couple of CKS statues
• Taiwan film industry should explore collaboration with other centers of the industry
• Japanese lobby IOC to let Taiwan be "Taiwan"
• Indigenous legislator on fight for aboriginal self-determination in Taiwan
• Significance of Taiwan-Japan maritime dialogue
• A person monitoring the BBC "What is the one China principle? site says its improved. *shudder*. It is still pro-China, and wrong. Hilaribad....
• Jeff Bader, former Obama Asia chief, on four proposals for China. As a longtime observer noted, the claim that the PRC going soft on Taiwan issue will result in party collapse is propaganda.
• Global Taiwan Brief latest
• Strategic memory diplomacy, used by Ma?

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