Period
|
Chinese
|
HKK + Mac
|
All China
|
MovChi
|
MovHkk
|
Dec 13
|
240,629
|
122,365
|
362,994
|
Up
|
Up
|
Jan 14
|
268,861
|
73,629
|
342,490
|
Up
|
Down
|
Feb 14
|
305,390
|
91,294
|
396,684
|
Up
|
Up
|
Mar 14
|
361,470
|
98,332
|
459,082
|
Up
|
Up
|
Apr 14
|
377,197
|
146,097
|
523,294
|
Up
|
Up
|
May 14
|
333,845
|
116,585
|
450,430
|
Down
|
Down
|
Jun 14
|
315,166
|
133,550
|
448,716
|
Down
|
Up
|
Jul 14
|
343,709
|
132,831
|
476,540
|
Up
|
Down
|
Aug 14
|
312,549
|
147,903
|
460,452
|
Down
|
Up
|
Sep 14
|
341,729
|
105,865
|
447,591
|
Up
|
Down
|
Oct 14
|
347,778
|
95,217
|
442,995
|
Up
|
Down
|
Nov 14
|
332,517
|
99,443
|
431,960
|
Down
|
Up
|
Dec 14
|
346,941
|
135,024
|
481,965
|
Up
|
Up
|
Jan 15
|
321,458
|
74,302
|
395760
|
Down
|
Down
|
Feb 15
|
406,239
|
97,216
|
503,455
|
Up
|
Up
|
Mar 15
|
279,703
|
114,473
|
394,176
|
Down
|
Up
|
Apr 15
|
358,798
|
145,479
|
504,277
|
Up
|
Up
|
May 15
|
372,766
|
124,758
|
497,524
|
Up
|
Down
|
Jun 15
|
308,087
|
139,920
|
448,007
|
Down
|
Up
|
Jul 15
|
352,625
|
142,515
|
495,140
|
Up
|
Up
|
Aug 15
|
367,736
|
160,829
|
528,565
|
Up
|
Up
|
Sep 15
|
345,243
|
118,255
|
463,498
|
Down
|
Down
|
Oct 15
|
386,663
|
113,549
|
500,212
|
Up
|
Down
|
Nov 15
|
357,655
|
118,026
|
475,681
|
Down
|
Up
|
Dec 15
|
327,129
|
164,275
|
491,439
|
Down
|
Up
|
Jan 16
|
366,409
|
93,448
|
459,857
|
Up
|
Down
|
Feb 16
|
405,307
|
114,431
|
519,738
|
Up
|
Up
|
Mar 16
|
363,878
|
164,894
|
528,772
|
Down
|
Up
|
Apr 16
|
375,567
|
110,716
|
486,283
|
Up
|
Down
|
May 16
|
327,254
|
125,302
|
452,556
|
Down
|
Up
|
Jun 16
|
271,478
|
143,276
|
414754
|
Down
|
Up
|
Inspired by this article on Thai tourism and challenges to the Tsai Administration in a Thai newspaper, which said...
Taiwan used to be a popular destination for Thai tourists and workers during the boom years of the 1990s and 2000s. Thailand was among the top-three largest Asean points of origin for tourists visiting Taiwan last year, numbering 70,000. But after Japan granted visa-free entry to Thai tourists three years ago, many have headed northbound with a near-record high of 1 million visitors last year.....I was studying the tourism numbers wondering if the Thai tourism mini-boom would offset the loss of Chinese group tourists, when I went "huh". If you look at the movements of the numbers something interesting occurs in Oct 2015, when Taiwan officials started claiming that there would be big tourism cuts, because of the election...
Ko Mu-chou (柯牧洲), vice chairman of the Taipei Association of Travel Agencies, said Chinese provincial-level travel authorities have been notified that they are required to cut the number of Taiwan-bound tourists by 95 percent during the period between Dec. 16 and Jan. 15.MAC dismissed such claims as hyperbolic, saying a fall was possible, but 95% was absurd.
The interesting thing about the numbers to me is when you look at the right hand columns. These two columns show the movement in the numbers over the previous month. Note that prior to October of 2015, there were many months in which the numbers moved in tandem: if tourists from China rose, so did tourists from Hong Kong and Macao. Since October of 2015, the only month where the numbers moved in tandem was February, which boasts Chinese New Year. In all other months they've moved in opposite directions.
If might be a coincidence, but it almost looks like someone is quietly managing the numbers to keep them at a target ratio of between 450,000 and 500,000, permitting the Hong Kong numbers to quietly rise even as the Chinese numbers noisily fall. Alas, the sample is too small to show a definite trend, but it is suggestive.
But -- how long can such management be maintained...?
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