Latest Ma/Tsai/Soong GVSRC poll

Before I get to all the portentous news about the F-16s today let's first visit the local polling group Global Views Survey Research, which has a new poll out on the election. As you can see, the survey says that Ma and Tsai are basically running neck and neck with or without James Soong in the election, while with Soong in the election, Ma takes a bigger hit than Tsai.

Interestingly, with Soong in the race, 4% more voters turn out. This may bring more pan-Blues to the polls, which may impact the legislative elections. But Soong also reduces Tsai's support, among independents or perhaps disgusted light Blues. I think Soong also appeals to the deep yearning among many Taiwanese for a third way out of the Blue/Green dilemma, though Soong, a Deep Blue pro-China heavyweight, obviously isn't it.

Also, the China Times came out with a poll this week. It shows Ma's lead over Tsai fall from ~10% to 4.5% over the last two weeks. With Soong in the race Ma's lead widens from 40-36% to 38-32%.

RESCUED FROM THE DEPTHS: Taiwan Echo comments:

Note that the poll they show (and you refer to) is the unweighted data. Since couple of months ago, this media, 遠見, stopped showing the weighted data. They show the unweighted, and hid the weighted in the paid database. You have to pay to view them, at a price of NT$5,400 a season --- that is, NT$1,800 (roughly $60 USD) a poll, if 1 poll/month. 

From friends who paid to take a look at it, Tsai wins by a much larger margin than what's shown in the unweighted.

______________________ 
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.