Monday, June 30, 2008

Cargo Cultists: the gods must be crazy

The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you see one more card
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
The waiting is the hardest part


What do the cargo cultists do when the gods don't deliver? Most of the cargo cults have disappeared over the years, but my personal favorite, the John Frum cult of Vanuatu, remains alive and well and even has its own political party. Say what you like about the adherents of the Prince Philip cargo cult, but at least Prince Philip isn't pointing missiles at His worshippers....

Meanwhile, back here in another Pacific island with its own more modern version of a cargo cult, the Taipei Times reports that KMT negotiators have been Kitty Hawked by Beijing:

The NT$60 billion (US$2 billion) windfall expected to be generated by Chinese tourists may now be at risk, as the Chinese government has reportedly insisted that only 1,000 tourists per day be allowed to visit Taiwan in the initial stages, a third of the number agreed upon by the two sides during recent cross-strait talks, a local newspaper reported yesterday.

The news has raised fears within the domestic travel industry that Taiwan’s tourism market revenues this year could fall short of expectations, which could also have an impact on economic growth, the Chinese-language China Times said.

Since both sides of the Taiwan Strait signed an agreement in Beijing earlier this month that permits up to 3,000 Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan per day, the government has not yet received any information from China about adjusting the threshold and believes that there won’t be such adjustments, Straits Exchange Foundation Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Kao Kong-lian (高孔廉) said yesterday.

What? We built the ceremonial airstrips and dressed up as officers, and now our Spam and Jeeps aren't dropping from the sky? Say it ain't so, John Frum! The article goes on to recount how petulant KMT negotiators demanded that China -- get this -- live up to its word.

Taiwan’s representatives demanded that Beijing meet the 3,000 target as it was part of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) election platform and had been agreed upon by Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤).

...because it was Ma's election platform! Alas, market and political realities intrude, as it appears the 3,000 target is subject to "adjustment"....

Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Fu Don-cheng (傅棟成) also said that Beijing had already indicated during the consultations that the threshold of 3,000 would be adjusted as needed and in line with market demands. Whether the number is 1,000 or 3,000, the Chinese government will have their own concerns and make a decision and the public shouldn’t over-interpret it, Fu said.

Other officials added that during the consultations, Beijing had proposed to proceed step by step, starting from 1,000 and gradually increasing to 3,000 because of national security concerns. Beijing was worried that if Taiwan allowed so many tourists to enter Taiwan each day from the start, it would double security problems and increase the burden on both sides.
No doubt China is pondering the consequences of letting loose thousands of middle and upper class Chinese on a nation where Asians refute every day the lie that Asians are not suited for democracy.

Meanwhile, in other election promise news, as Kaohsiung politicians awoke to the reality that they were getting only one charter flight from China on Friday, July 4, the first day of the flights, while the President convened his new task force to ponder the sliding stock market. Yesterday the newspapers revealed that four major government pension funds were sinking money into the market. The task force decided to encourage insurance firms, still awash with capital, to sink money into the stock market and to invest in the 12 projects that Ma is pushing to spur the local political economy....

6 comments:

Tommy said...

I had to laugh when I read this article today. The thought of Ma having egg on his face over the easiest of his negotiation-related campaign promises was too rich to keep me from chuckling.

This time, however, in reference to the Chinese, I do think that this decision, if it is true, is not at all in their own interests. The Chinese tourists that come to Taiwan will probably spend more time telling Taiwanese how wrong they are then noticing an Asian democracy at work. And Ma will lose a lot of face if this turns out to be correct. His approval level is currently falling, and this would not help. Letting 3,000 Chinese go to Taiwan would be painless for them. Go figure.

Anonymous said...

"Whether the number is 1,000 or 3,000, the Chinese government will have their own concerns and make a decision and the public shouldn’t over-interpret it, Fu said."

I guess he had to hold himself back not saying "our government" instead of "Chinese".

It will be interesting to see who in the KMT will stand up to defend China on future policy decisions. That surely wasn't the last time.

Michael Turton said...

thomas, do you think the Chinese government is sophisticated enough to realize that 3,000 bombastic people lecturing the Taiwanese on how they need to "return to the fold" each day won't go over very well here?

I'm curious as to motive. I totally agree with you that they would be better off sending the tourists here by any conventional calculation.

michael

Richard said...

I thought I read that there hasn't been the expected demand that they thought there would be (i.e. still empty seats on this weekends coming flights)? Any more news on that? If so, the cap at 1,000 is meaningless as Ma's administration has overestimated the potential "economic boost" that Chinese tourists could provide.

Anonymous said...

Clearly some people here never went on an expensive tour in China and in Taiwan. China's tours blow Taiwan's away. All airplanes are brand new 737 and so is the bus. The five star hotels in the major city are amazing. Even on top of the yellow mountain, the hotel is forgivable considering I just don't see how a hotel could even be built up there. I am not surprised that the demand is not high with all the restriction, however, baby step forward is far better than moonwalking backward.

Btw, upper-middle class Chinese have all the channels (news channels and pro-green SETTV included; okay there is no Falun Gong channel) in China just like Taiwan and the US. You do have to pay though. My cousin's house in Shanghai has all the channels when I was there. China is definitely not worry about how Chinese will think about democracy. I have people I worked with in the US think democracy doesn't fit Chinese. I usually just told them that it is time for them to go back to China if they really think that way. Of course, none of them wants to do that.

Michael Turton said...

LOL. Nice comments, arty. I don't know what the restrictions are for -- maybe they are trying to save Taiwan's face because, as you say, they numbers aren't there. I noticed this morning that one of the Taiwan carriers actually canceled its flight: not enough tickets were bought.