Saturday, December 08, 2007

Ignoring the Kitty Hawk Lesson

The media are reporting on yet another warning from the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Thomas Christensen, on our referendum. This report is from the DPA, which doesn't even need to slant the piece the way it often does; Christensen's remarks are already pro-China enough. To wit:


A senior US official Thursday reiterated Washington's warning against Taiwan's planned referendum on joining the United Nations, calling the move risky and provocative, according to Taiwan press reports.

The warning was made by Thomas Christensen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, at a news conference held specially for US-based Taiwan reporters, the Central News Agency said in a dispatch from Washington.

Tawian is planning to hold the referendum alongside the presidential election in March 2008 to ask voters if the island should join the United Nations under the name Taiwan.

At the news conference held at the State Department, Christensen said the US had openly and privately expressed objections to Taiwan's UN referendum.

The US believed the referendum signified that Taiwan was seeking to change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait, violating the pledges President Chen Shui-ban made when he began his first term in 2000.

The pledges included not changing Taiwan's title - the Republic of China - and not holding a referendum on independence from, or unification with, China.

These remarks do not differ from the normal Bush Administration script, in which China's missile buildups are never labeled provocative, but a referendum from Taiwan which cannot possibly succeed -- and whose ultimate end is entirely under China's control -- is considered "risky" (Chen smacked back the following day). US behavior must drive the Chinese absolutely wacky -- on one hand, the US maintains a studied silence on the Chinese military build up, does not sell Taiwan needed weapons, and labels Chen's behavior "provocative." It almost looks like a clear invitation to invade. Yet the Navy sent Kitty Hawk through the Taiwan Strait. And Congress keeps issuing expressions of support.... US inconsistency is neatly encapsulated in the State Department's rapid response to the UN Sec-Ban's claim that Taiwan was part of China -- it insisted that the status of Taiwan is not determined. But look on that selfsame department's website, and there the status of Taiwan is indeed determined -- it is part of China.

Arrgh.

I said it before, but let's say it again, with a more expanded version:


Anyone who has observed China's relations with the outside world for any length of time has seen this pattern again and again. In the midst of negotiations with the Vatican, it consecrates two bishops for the state Church. In the midst of negotiations over the Torch coming to Taiwan, it denies a visa to the representative of the city of Kaohsiung to discuss games held there in 2009. Arriving in India for negotiations, its ambassador announces a whole Indian state is part of China. Some months back the Chinese government shut down an expat magazine in China that was widely considered the most sympathetic and supportive expat rag in the nation. After attending the ASEAN meeting in November where it has positive interactions with ASEAN members, it immediately goes out and holds war games in waters disputed by those nations, without informing them. China gets the Olympics, and crackdowns on the internet, and journalists intensify, while state security arrests double.
Catch the pattern?

The US Navy struggled for the better part of a decade to establish good relations with China, to erect early warning systems to help stabilize the regional military situation, to engage in exchange programs, offering access and information to the Chinese. It got little in return, and then the Chinese decided to block Kitty Hawk's access to Hong Kong. Slap! Remember your place in relation to the Throne!

The reaction of China-watchers was quite interesting, sort of like a tribe of natives, their village destroyed by lava, trying to find some rational reason for the whims of the volcano god. China was angered by weapons sales to Taiwan. Nope, it was Tibet. No, they wanted to demonstrate their ambition to boot the US from Asia. Of course, all this was but to say: if only our men had been braver and our women more chaste, the volcano god wouldn't have wiped out our homes.

Looking at Kitty Hawk, what results do you think the Bush Administration is going to get for State's support of the Chinese position on Taiwan?

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

You do know a Democratic president will be even closer to China :). We are against it simply because it is not in the US interest, period, regardless which party we are from. As you can see I am a registered Democrat, and we see many things differently.

Also, how about blog about what DPP did to stop legislation on the election LAW. KMT did control the legislature through election. I guess when you can't win you just have to do it physically or maybe declear martial law is not such a bad idea :). Man, the beauty of the so call democracy.

Tommy said...

Well, look at the positive side of Christenson's comments. He has not really said anything this time that he did not say last time. He is basically repeating what now seems like a tired refrain. That's because he can't really go further without seeming to announce a change in US policy towards Taiwan, which he is already dangerously close to.

What does this mean? It means that the "cry wolf" effect is upon him. The more he repeats himself, the less people in Taiwan will pay attention. His words will have almost no effect on the election or the referendum. Furthermore, it will be hard for the Blue camp to use his words to attack the Green camp. All they can do is repeat themselves too since they have nothing new to complain about.

The need of the US to emphasize this stinky refrain is appalling, but the effect this emphasis will have is minimal.

Andreas Hippin said...

Looks like a sequel to the 1930s with the PRC playing the role of Nazi Germany. Western governments will bet on appeasement again. Ford, IBM and many other U.S. companies had no problems with supplying Nazi Germany. They have no problems with Beijing either.

Beijing 2008 may be even more popular than the Berlin Olympics in 1936. It's time to put it in perspective. After the collapse of want-to-be socialism the PRC is building on ethnic nationalism, the language of the common Han blood. Time to wake up before they come.

Anonymous said...

Chinese patterns of political whimsy are more sophisticated in these recent years with regard to dealing with the world outside the wall.

Interesting that the Chinese press (notably Xinhua) fail to report the removal of Chiang's name yesterday in Taipei.

Tommy said...

"Interesting that the Chinese press (notably Xinhua) fail to report the removal of Chiang's name yesterday in Taipei."

Of course they didn't. The PRC may rant about CSB's "troublemaking", but the last thing they want to do is draw the attention of the people of the PRC to the fact that the Taiwanese (whether all of them wanted it or not) have removed (whether permanently or temporarily (in the case Ma is elected)) the name of CKS from the memorial. I mean, if the Chinese see that, then what might they think of next? The removal of Mao's portrait from Tiananmen Square? Perish the thought!!!

Anonymous said...

“Aya! When I think of where my hard earned tax yuan is spent at. The jewel the laowai foisted on us. Those ungrateful whining about liberties, about democracy. Do I care for liberty? And me toiling on here. What’s the old woman to do if I don’t come up with the kid’s tuition? Aya! What a waste. The military expenditures incurred to defend that ballerina we can hardly afford. All the yuan going into maintaining obsolete Russian hand-me-downs. Aya, tamade! Atan, pass the rice gruel, will ya?”

Being that the common folk in the hinterland are brooding over Hong-kong along these lines, no need for convoluted thinking behind last month HK flap. For us it was less an opportunity to behave the babe jilting a suitor than it was a sales pitch for domestic consumption. From time to time we, in Zhongnanhai, ought to account for Agong’s onerous tax burden, after all. Ought not we? And if in the process Amei feels foolish, well so be it. The idiot laomei asked for it. As to why we dished out big time to our pal Sarko, that puny degenerate Attila? Ask Angela.

Sir Winston Churchil once quipped that he “loved Americans because they tend to choose the smartest solution….always once they have exhausted all others.”