RAND Corporation: China Could Defeat US

Last month the RAND corporation, a well-known US think tank, released a major report on China's ability to counter the US in a military confrontation. This document takes a more pessimistic view than US military declarations on the results of a US-China war. Rand's introductory summary notes:

A RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) study of Chinese military doctrinal writings finds that China could employ several types of antiaccess strategies in a future conflict with the United States, including

• pressuring such countries as Japan to limit or deny the United States the use of forward bases
• striking or jamming information systems to delay the deployment of U.S. military forces or to deny the United States access to information on enemy whereabouts
• disrupting U.S. logistics systems, thereby preventing the timely delivery of supplies and delaying the arrival of additional forces
• attacking air bases and ports to prevent or disrupt the deployment of forces and materiel
• attacking naval assets, such as aircraft carriers, to limit the United States’ ability to launch aircraft from the sea.

These actions could result in defeat for the United States — not in the sense that U.S. military forces would be destroyed but in the sense that China would accomplish its military and political objectives while preventing the United States from accomplishing some or all of its objectives.

An article on the report described it thusly:

Among China's options, the report said, was pressuring Japan and other Asian allies to deny the United States the use of bases on their territory in a conflict. China could also jam U.S. communications and computers, disrupt logistics and attack air bases to prevent supplies to the military.

"The Chinese People's Liberation Army is well aware of its own shortcomings and the United States' military superiority," Cliff said. "Instead of engaging U.S. forces head-on, they would attempt to take advantage of what they perceive to be American weaknesses, including the need to deploy and operate forces thousands of miles from home."

The Rand study differed from others by and for the Pentagon regarding Chinese strategy. Unlike previous studies, Rand examined Chinese military publications to determine Beijing's anti-access options. This contrasted with previous studies that relied on "mirror imaging" techniques, in which U.S. analysts imagined a Chinese offensive.

The report, commissioned by the US, then goes on to recommend steps the US military can take to counter the Chinese moves.

Taiwan's military staged a simulation last month that showed that Taiwan would rain missiles on China and stave off a Chinese victory. A nice thought, but no missiles have been deployed -- the simulation discussed the situation in 2012. Taiwan is currently developing cruise missiles with a roughly 600 km range, according to recent reports.

[Taiwan] [China] [US]