This week the 1996 DPP candidate for president, Peng Min-min, a stalwart of Taiwan independence for decades, commented in the Taipei Times that the accidental missile launch from the naval ship in K-town last week may not have been accidental....
It just so happens that the leader of Country B is abroad on a diplomatic visit, which offers an excellent opportunity for implementing the plot. Everything is in place, the lowly soldier is on stand-by over his launch button and all the other officers have cleared the deck to be able to present an alibi later they were not present.This is a heaping pile of incompetent conspiratorial nonsense, and the Taipei Times should never have published it. A longtime expert pointed out the simple fact that you can't fire the missile without setting its path coordinates: the same person has to do both, more or less. No one who wanted to cause trouble with China would have kept the missile within Taiwan's airspace. Hence any talk of conspiracy is nonsense. It was just a not-very-unusual screw up.
A simple order is issued, the lowly soldier presses the button with the finger he was taught to use, the cannon really does fire and the lowly soldier is elated. The conspirators cover their ears and hold their breaths as they wait for Country A’s mighty “counterattack.”
However, the missile does not live up to expectations: It never reaches Country A. Instead, it hits a house in Country B and kills and injures some of its own people. In disarray, the conspirators realize that their plan has failed. They hurriedly discuss how to clean up the mess and agree that the launch should be presented as a “mistake.” They then make a big fuss as they rush to punish the lowly soldier and a few unfortunate officers, hurrying to close the case in the hope that everyone will forget about it.
When analyzing events, its important to retain a simple filter: never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity.
This article is interesting as a relic of the way that generation of independence activists automatically reaches for conspiracy when it wants to explain events. Sad, and very out of date...
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