Thursday, June 04, 2015

Eric "Hamlet" Chu Suffers the Insolence of Office

Valley views.

Well, Eric Chu once again dazzled us with his ability to turn 180s on a dime. The vacation he took a couple of days ago suddenly got canceled as he decided he would be back for the crucial June 17th meeting. The KMT news organ enthuses:
KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) stated yesterday that the party's 2016 KMT Presidential candidate would be finalized during the Central Standing Committee (CSC) meeting scheduled for June 17. Yesterday, Chu also decided to cancel his leave of absence as KMT chairman, so he would preside over the June 17 CSC meeting. He reportedly does not have a pre-set stance on the matter.


Eric Chu stated that the KMT decided to conduct public opinion polls asking two sets of questions, i.e. whether the respondents support Hung and whether the respondents support Hung in a race against the DPP's Tsai. The support ratings from the two questions would be weighted at 15% and 85%, respectively. According to the current schedule, the KMT would hold the opinion polls on June 12 and 13, and release their results of on June 14. The KMT CSC would nominate a Presidential candidate on June 17, with the approval of the National Party Congress, held annually, now scheduled for July 19.
This means it ain't over til it's over. Because the only candidate is Hung, and if she isn't approved on the 17th, there's definitely no candidate. But if she is approved, the National Party Congress -- which Chu will preside over as Chairman -- will decide, and Hung is not exactly popular within the KMT. What if they reject her? (Imagine the lawsuits). Chu could well be drafted, or Ma could force an Wu Den-yi/Hung Hsiu-chu ticket, or anything could happen. But it looks like we have another month of gleefully abusing the KMT to look forward to.

The article gave some poll numbers from the China Times polling center. Tsai beats Hung only by 4.1%, Tsai beats Chu by 10%, Tsai beats Wang by 2.9%. Lots of undecideds in those polls, and it is way early. But Wang's continued success against Tsai has to be raising his stock inside the KMT. Couple that with the fact that a Hung or Wu candidacy will chill faction support for the KMT across Taiwan, whereas a Wang candidacy will stoke it -- and Wang is well liked even among pan-Green voters.

I mean, the move is obvious. If Chu doesn't want it, go with Wang. But then, this is the party that ran members of the Lien family three times for major public office...

Meanwhile, even as Eric Chu dithers, more good news out of the US from all sorts of channels. The media is reporting a very successful trip for Tsai to the US. All my private sources are saying that the US was much happier to see her and that things went very well. Hopefully there won't be a repeat of that ridiculous attack on Tsai in 2012 that did so much harm to Taiwan and the United States.
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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wantwant polls always have massive numbers of undecided respondents and show surprisingly close margins. They're the ones who claimed Hu was only 3 points behind Lin on the eve of the election last year.