Thursday, May 14, 2015

KMT forces Chu's hand

On Longxi Road in Taitung

Disaster looms... (KMT news organ)
There are three days left to pick up registration forms for those who want to run in the KMT Presidential primary, according to the Taipei-based China Times, May 14, Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) has been keeping a low profile. According to an informed source, strong opposition from Wang’s family and obstruction from President Ma’s subordinates have caused Wang to hesitate to throw his hat into the ring. According to the same source, Wang also wanted to avoid causing a rift in the KMT before the 2016 Presidential Election, so it was highly unlikely that Wang would pick up a registration form for the KMT primary.

The KMT has yet to come up with a standard bearer for the 2016 Presidential election. According to the KMT party central’s internal regulations, if Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) or Yaung Chih-liang (楊志良), who have already picked up registration forms, did not receive enough qualified endorsements or the minimum 30% support rating in the primary opinion polls, the KMT’s Central Standing Committee would likely directly draft a candidate in June, with the approval of the National Party Congress scheduled for July 19. KMT Chairman Eric Chu, Vice President Wu Den-yih (吳敦義), and Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) are thought to be the most likely draftees.
At the moment -- savor this thought -- the most credible candidate the KMT has is Hung Hsiu-chu, the Deputy Legislative Speaker (name recognition test: quick, name your own country's deputy legislative speaker), who has been burnishing her rightist credentials. An SETV poll from April 21, Solidarity reminded us on Twitter today, has Tsai crush her 60-11, while UDN has Tsai over Hung 60-12. She's bug on windscreen bad. There's no way the KMT goes with her.

Nope, with Wang out, because as many have already noted the party would split between the local factions and the KMT core -- nothing more dramatically shows Wang's importance as the tongs by which the KMT handled the local factions -- that leaves only one option.

Eric Chu must come out. It's looking to us chatting about this that the Party core is pushing Wang out to ensure that Chu has to run. Because if anyone else runs, it will be a blowout, and the KMT can't afford a blowout -- the factions are already going to take it personally that Wang wasn't supported by the mainlander core after all he's done -- I suspect that's why the KMT has been putting it about that Wang's family doesn't want him to run, to reduce some of that damage. Moreover, some of them have already started to leave, signaling that more must be thinking about it. A blowout loss would mean that the legislature might be lost as well, which would send many faction politicians out to make deals with the DPP. Meanwhile Chu would have to resign as Chair, and his shot at the 2020 nomination would be damaged. Chu may have to run merely to preserve his position for the 2020 election. On the other hand, maybe he won't resign no matter what. Who knows?

And there's Hau, waiting in the wings if Chu falters.

The nomination process closes this weekend, according to the -- haha, I don't know why I am even using this word in connection with the KMT -- rules (Solidarity explains them here).

More bad news for Chu came out this week with the new TISR poll on his visit to China (link). Just as everyone said, it'd didn't play in Peoria.
  • Who benefited? 41.2% said China, 15.7% said Taiwan. 
All this reminds me -- Wang is aging. Who is going to handle the party's relationships with its factions after Wang is gone?

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Jenna Cody said...

Oh freakin' Christ. The two sides didn't "come under separate rule 66 years ago". I know the ROC claims that during the brief period when they ruled China that they also ruled Taiwan, but we all know that to be pure bollocks.

Is that guy who sends envelopes of glitter to people still doing his thing? Because I want to send huge heaps of glitter to journalists who write this crap. said...


Anonymous said...

The KMT ought to just overcome its qualms and run Wang. Play their best card for this situation. The public wants anti-Ma candidates.

Anonymous said...

What happens if a candidate is drafted by the KMT but STILL refuses to run?

Anonymous said...

Dream electoral matchup: Tsai vs. Hung, Tsai wins 63% to 37%.

Then in 2020, Tsai crushes Eric Chu.

Then in 2024, William Lai crushes a KMT candidate.

Anonymous said...

My biggest concern with KMT defeatism, is that they may be using a weak card to hide a stacked deck.

It could be that all the hype of the KMT's looming loss may be used for strategic advantage in making anything less than a total obliteration of the Chinese Nationalist Party look like a victory to demonstrate what could be portrayed as a much larger base of support, which could be used to downplay any potential DPP mandate and signal to all the actors involved that the KMT is still a viable conduit of popular power.

Anonymous said...

@ Anonymous: I doubt that would work. Saying, "The KMT only got smashed by 15% instead of 30%" isn't very inspiring.

Anonymous said...

chu on my wang, kmt losers

Brian Castle said...

There is something strange about that picture. It looks like when you cross the bridge through that opening you'll see hills in the distance with a blue sky above. But if you look around it there are clearly hills in the way. Is it a portal to another dimension?