Thursday, November 03, 2011

Poll Light

Be sure to ride your bike over the edge to get the full experience.

Lots of numbers flying around. This poll from the (pan-Green) Taiwan Brain Trust has Tsai ahead of Ma 35.9-32.2, with Soong far behind at 13. Head to head, it still has her up 3 over Ma. A (pan-Blue) China Times Poll has Ma ahead of Tsai by four, 41-37, with Soong a distant 10.  TVBS, rabidly pan-Blue, has Ma up 6 on Tsai 39-33, with Soong again at 9.

Meanwhile Ma continues to slide in the prediction market. He's at under 48 as of this writing, with Tsai flirting with 50.

Speaking of polls, AP picked up the tale of apparent KMT pressure on Global Views to end its polling since it showed Tsai up 4-6% on Ma. When interviewed, Tai Li-an, the director of its political polls, would not come right out and say it, but readers can connect the dots themselves.
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Ben Goren said...

I really am loathe to cite any polls at the moment, and especially since Global Views shut down their center. I think the 'head to head' meme is about as accurate as is possible right now. Still, it makes me wonder how they conduct all these polls when the results swing from Tsai up by 4 to Ma up by 6 ...

Anonymous said...

Little more growth on the "Market" then it's time to sell.


Wade Kaardal said...

Wow, Taipei Times put Tsai ahead and the China times put Ma ahead. That's really surprising. I'm sure you could plot their samples pretty accurately based on whether they live North or South of Taichung.

yankdownunder said...

Fukushima: fission still ongoing.

Japan says no new reaction at Fukushima plant

Anonymous said...

Poll results may differ due to many reasons among which are:
How the questions are structured; region of the sampling; how accurately the answers are logged. Most of the time when I get surveys like these, I find it hard so select an answer that truly reflects my choice, simply because the true selection is conditional. Certainly wonder how often this happens to other people.

Another thought is that just through how questions are asked, one can play with the results allowing them to sway right up to election.


Wade Kaardal said...

I'm always surprised at the quality of reporting in the two big English papers here. Something like a standard deviation might be a worthwhile, and standard, piece of information to include when reporting on polls.