Apple Daily poll above. Weirdly, Ma seems to have increased his percentage and suffered only a tiny drop in his lead despite the steady drumbeat of bad news that is killing him in other polls -- the prediction market has Tsai over Ma 48-44 when asked who will win, as of this writing. This Apple Daily poll appears to be badly wrong. The poll also shows Ma with double digit leads in the Taipei basin, Taoyuan/Hsinchu/Miaoli, and central Taiwan. Say what? Because the Taipei Times reported today that the internal polls showed Tsai ahead in central Taiwan.
Recent surveys showed that the support rate of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in central Taiwan — Greater Taichung, Changhua County and Nantou County, which is sandwiched between the Jhuoshuei and Da-an rivers — has surpassed that of KMT candidate President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), a senior aide of Tsai’s campaign said.The NCCU prediction market, broken out by area, also has Tsai up slightly on Ma in the central area [MT error: that is only for the Hakka vote]. UDN also put forward a poll of younger voters (20-29) which had Tsai and Ma tied at 39 apiece.
The Chinese-language magazine the Journalist on Wednesday quoted an anonymous KMT official as saying that an undisclosed KMT survey showed that Tsai is leading Ma in central Taiwan by 10 percentage points, and by 2 to 3 percentage points overall. The aide also said that Tsai had overtaken Ma in central Taiwan, a region with about 2.4 million voters.
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