Sunday, April 16, 2006, Taiwan Blog Round up

Another Sunday lost in the great wake of life, like a dead whale floating past the gawkers on a cruise ship. Lots of stuff happening, lots of news....

It's Easter week, and I thought I'd start off with the The Taiwan Chronicles considering the problem of Easter:

The dilemma with Easter is slightly more serious in my eyes. For one thing, I'm dealing with a younger class of students this time, and beginning to explain the holiday with "Some people believe that there was a man named Jesus who died for your sins..." is not going to go over as well as it did with the older kids. To the smaller kids, either something is true or it isn't... there is no in between, no room for interpretation. How do I explain to them why two other teachers in our program don't celebrate Easter as I describe it, one coming from a Buddhist family and the other from a Jewish family?

As I write this, I'm starting to feel convinced that I can't teach this lesson at all. As a teacher, I often find myself in a position where the kids believe everything I say. Take leprechauns, for instance... the kids gobbled up everything I said about lephrechauns, took it as truth. It was only when I told them flat out that leprechauns aren't real that they considered the idea could be false. So what happens with Easter? I can't think of any good ways to present it to them without having to answer the question "Is it true?" Whether I believe one way or the other is unimportant, as it isn't my place as a teacher to either support or refute religious beliefs and, again, these children do not yet understand the subtleties of religion and the wide variety of beliefs in the world. It seems as if the best option is to opt out of teaching Easter.

I've always felt that teaching holidays is a colossal waste of time -- for example, how many times have you ever used the phrase "jack-o-lantern" in your life? And yet it is a staple of children's English programs across Taiwan! Why not teach more useful stuff....

Speaking of teaching, Scott, who is on a misson to disprove widely-held beliefs about Asia, takes on another one:

One aspect of education in Asia that is frequently expressed by local and foreign resident alike is that students and universities are fundamentally different from those in Western nations. The belief goes that Asians are so culturally different that their approach to education and schooling does not follow the theoretical models of the West and thus outcomes are radically different. Examples of this belief abound.

In an April 2 comment to this post, Michael Turton makes the claim that Asian academics are different from their western counterparts and that this is what accounts for the differing political behaviour that I describe. Part of his explanation for this focuses on the authoritarian nature of education. I don't mean to pick on Michael since this was also the theme of a long series of posts and comments from the influential blog Jeff in Korea that was carried over to EFL Geek (also see here).

In the course of his comment Michael touches on a number of examples of what I feel reflects erroneous thinking about Asian education. Here, I won't be dwelling on all of them, but I do want to address one point that particularly runs counter to my personal experience....

An area fraught with cross-cultural landmines.....

Wulingren at the Mandate of Heaven blogs beautifully on encounters....

With the passage of time, one of them uttered a question which had the effect of delineating that moment as a break with previous moments in my life. He said: "Do you want to see the real Taiwan, the Taiwan of the mountain folk," the people known in Taipei as aboriginals (yuanzhumin原 住民). He said his friend, a taxi driver, would take me into the hills. I was a little worried because in America I was taught as a child not to speak with strangers, and all those present had been drinking. After thousands of milliseconds of consternation, I accepted and embarked on an adventure.

We drove on winding, mountainous roads. At one point, we stopped at a house, within which we drank Taiwan beer and ate sushi. No, it was not wise to go on this journey, but I seemed to have lost the capacities of judgement, so intent was I on discovery.

It's a long post, and well worth the investment of time.........

I already blogged on it, but again, don't miss David at Jujuflop's wonderful musings on the possible role of KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou.

In both cases, I would argue that the main issue is that Ma just doesn’t have full control over KMT legislators. Although it’s a tried-and-trusted technique to say positive things in interviews and then conveniently forget about them, I don’t think that is happening here. Ma’s US trip was much more difficult for not having anything positive to say about arms sales - instead of having a proposal to wave, he was left defending the indefensible. Equally, he didn’t have to advise the KMT Caucus to have an open vote this week - he could simply have left the decision up to the caucus without any advice if he wanted to wash his hands of the whole affair.

So, we are left with the probability that the man who over 70% of KMT members support, who is in the middle of a honeymoon period as KMT Chairman doesn’t have the will or the power to control his party. There are several possible reasons for this. Since I think it’s a combination of all of them, I’ll just list them here in no particular order.....

David raises a slew of very interesting issues. Can't wait for time to tell on this one...

TOS, the pro-KMT blogger, holds as an article of faith that the English-language media ignores problems with the Greens....

Another story that seems to be escaping the eye of the English media is the still-developing 太平洋 Sogo scandal. Sogo was once the Taiwan equivalent of Harrods, but has fallen on hard times recently. Sogo’s previous owner, 章民強 Zhang Min-qiang once supported current ROC President 陳水扁Chen Shui-Bian, but later publicly stated that he did so with the hope that Chen would extend his credit and allow him to keep his store.

Actually, two days before TOS posted on the 11th, the Taipei Times had already had two articles on it, TT 4/10, TT 4/9. The English language media certainly doesn't ignore DPP scandals -- it is usually quite distressed by them.

The Gentle Rant muses on the history of panda diplomacy in China:

Panda diplomacy is well over a thousand years old. It began in the Tang Dynasty. The second Tang emperor, Taizong (626-649) reportedly sent a pair to Japan to help seal a trade agreement. (1) Other sources say it took place in 685 when the Empress Wuzetian sent pandas to the Mikado as a goodwill gift. (2) Either way, these amazing creatures have been used as fluffy pawns in China’s great game for at least thirteen hundred years.

Much has already been said about the wisdom of not keeping opposition leaders in a secure location and the questionable wisdom of accepting gifts like these under circumstances like these. On the latter point, I think probably Virgil said it the best in his Aeneid, shortly before the Greeks jumped out of that big horse and slaughtered all the Trojans in their sleep,

equo ne credite, Teucri.
quid quid id est, timeo Danaos et dona ferentis (3)

Which translates as, “Do not trust the horse, Trojans! Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even bringing gifts.” Let’s hope they’re at least x-rayed.

I had no idea panda diplomacy went back so far....

Feli at Writer's Block blogged on a hate crime against foreigners that entered her own life. I already posted on this below, but I want to round it up because it is just so important.

Then he began to tell me that shortly after we'd danced, some men told him that he had to go i.e. leave the club. Some men took him outside and before he knew it there were three men beating him up with a baseball bat and baton. They hit him in the face, on his back, stomach, legs and knees. They told the American that a woman he'd danced with in the club was pressing charges of sexual harrassment; that she had gone crying to security claiming that he'd grabbed her breast. (*Not that, that could justify roughing someone up!) It was all mostly blur for him. At some point the police picked the American up and he made it to a police station where he reported the incident and made a statement with the help of a Taiwanese friend who translated for him. He also had to go to a hospital for treatment of his injuries. He was in pretty bad shape, his glasses were broken, face messed up, body bruised, head and body aching.

The club already had a rep for this type of thing. Naturally, Apple Daily arrived to misreport events. I hope Thomas' case goes well. Anybody know a good lawyer?

The ever hopeful Jerome Keating spotted a sign of maturity in Taiwan's political sphere:

In the vote, 208 of 221 seated legislators voted. Hsieh needed 105 votes to get a simple majority approval. He got 101 and so lost by four votes. Counting the 86 DPP legislators and 11 TSU legislators the pan-green votes totaled 97. The members of the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union except for Independent legislator May Chin were absent. This meant that four legislators had crossed over and voted for Hsieh.

PFP Legislator Shen Chih-huei was one. Shen stated that to vote on partisan lines in this case was interfering with justice for political reasons. To prove her point she displayed her yes vote for all to see and then cast her ballot. In Taiwan politics this is a rare occurrence and that woman should be noted for her conviction.

There was no reason to vote against Hsieh, who had a distinguished record as a prosecutor. The whole thing was just another example of the ongoing obstructionism of the KMT and its allies. Keating wrote further on the ethics of another prosecutor attacking Hsieh.

In a recent editorial, one of Taiwan's English-language papers expressed the twisted and convoluted logic often found in Taiwan politics. At issue was the problem of how prosecutor Lee Tzu-chun could co-lead a rally to protest the selection of Hsieh Wen-ding as Prosecutor General. In trying to influence Hsieh's selection process through leading the rally, Lee was clearly taking sides.

Read the whole article; it is a good example of the kind of crap that democracy in Taiwan has to overcome.

Daniel at Suitcasing comments on the act of blogging:

Rarely in the comment section of a blog, do commenters make note of the blogger's style. Unless you are deliberately writing poetic or descriptive writing, people seem to focus on your argument, your research, your politics. This is perhaps strange, as I believe the real struggle in writing is not logic or data (you have those long before you being typing) but of rhetoric. The blogger sits down and asks not, "What do I believe?" but "How am I going to put this"? The real enemy a writer faces is language; particularly in the blogging medium, mostly posts are written fairly quickly without much reference to outside facts, so how the writer writes is essential. It would be nice to occasionally see comments saying something like, "As a side issue, your argument about China is infantile, but I want to say that paragraphs two and three were beautiful".

Many of the questions that we ask ourselves probably have no answer and have been debated for centuries. It is also probable that once an issue reaches a certain complexity, it contains an infinite number of possible interpretations. Discussions of the meaning of Bible verses, "What is x part of Chinese culture?", "Is it right for us to....?" - is it possible that a very large part of what we are doing is telling stories, and how appealing those stories are determines how true they seem? A blogger who writes generally in favour of a feature of Taiwanese society, and a blogger who mauls it, are they really in disagreement? Are they writing in utterly different words about something that, were they discussing it face to face, they would end up almost completely agreeing on?

Good writing once again.

Pinyin News reports that the Taiwan gov’t wants to subsidize ‘mother-tongue’ education in kindergartens. It's good to know our budget here in Taiwan is unlimited....he also notes that Mayor Ma of Taipei has called for more Mandarin in Taipei schools. I'm not generally in favor of mother tongue education here. Not only does it cost money, but in the current atmosphere of identity politics it simply creates permanent ethnic communities that have vested interests in perpetuating themselves as subsidy recipients, thus impairing Taiwan's already dangerous underdeveloped sense of its own nationhood. Pinyin News also blogged on the myth of Chinese characters and lefties...

I came across an article earlier on myths about left-handedness. The section labeled “oppressing the left” notes that “lefties have long suffered.” One of the statements made in support of this, however, is that “Chinese characters prove extremely difficult to write with the left hand.” I’ve heard this assertion about Chinese characters before, many times....

Certainly there’s been a great deal of discrimination against left-handed people in China and Taiwan, where they are often forced to switch. This happens even more frequently in those two countries than in the West, where it almost certainly continues to occur. (When I was in second grade my teacher tried to force me to use my right hand. Fortunately for me, my left-handed father came to school to set her straight on this. )

Oddly enough, people in Taiwan and China have often remarked to me that left-handed people are especially smart.

They were just sucking up to you, Mark!

Foreigner on Formosa blogs on Not Getting Invited....

Now I know how Ma Ying-jeou feels. Ma, the rookie KMT chairman, couldn't even manage to get an invite to a meeting held by lawmakers belonging to his own party. The April 10th meeting consisted of 20 to 30 legislators from southern districts who are unhappy with the party's current obstructionist policies. There, attendees discussed changing the party's goals, as well as methods for directing the party towards greater moderation on the issue of legislative gridlock. A few days afterwards, the snubbed chairman was reduced to announcing he was "happy to see legislators have opinions on the party's affairs."

I was waiting for David at jujuflop to comment on this event! The Foreigner beats him to the punch. As this event shows, the KMT is in fact a deeply-divided party.....and those divisions still have to work themselves out in the future...

Lien Chan went to China this week, and the blogosphere was pretty quiet, all things considered, except for a flap about Taiwan businessmen being forced to go to the event, which ESWN and I blogged on (see Taiwanese Businessmen Forced to Attend Lien-Hu Lovefest in China). Rank noted in Lien's Trip to China:

Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan is following up last April's historic Chinese visit with another this year. He's leaving Thursday, April 14. Since he added the "honorary" title, the Chinese could hardly not accord him even more honors befitting a high-profile provincial minion - so he gets to meet with PRC President Hu Jintao on Sunday.

Hu's most generous gift to Lien and Taiwan last year was a pair of giant pandas. He's expected to offer more goodwill this year - probably in the form of more non-cashable currency. The big question in some people's minds: Will Hu take President Chen's bait and announce that he embraces the 1992 consensus and explicitly state that it means that Beijing can interpret "one China" as the PRC and Taipei can can interpret it as the ROC?

I'd like to see Chen talking to China. It would be an enormous boost for him....which is why the PRC will never permit it to happen. You can be sure that Lien Chan impressed that on his hosts.

The Lost Spaceman penned on the Spring Scream. I have to admit that I was/am in exactly the same position as him, having never been to one either:

Before this weekend, I had been a Spring Scream virgin. My impressions of Spring Scream were negative. I imagined it to be a massive English teacher piss up with some smoke and moderately terrible indie bands stinking up three stages in an over the top masturbatory celebration of foreign music. I understand those are the roots of the festival, but it has grown up strong and mighty. While the show had several drawbacks (like being in Kenting, Taiwan's pathetic answer to Koh Chang and a non-existent shuttle service to and from the inaccessible concert grounds), I was happy to be just a music fan for three days as opposed to "that foreigner" or something else defined by the color of my language.

Over the two days I was on site and not handing out magazines (the site of Highway 11 as festival litter was both troubling and mildly alluring) I was able to catch about two dozen bands from Taiwan, North America and Japan. Although I wouldn't say that I'm the best source of information on the Asian independent scene, I was really impressed with the show and the caliber of music in Taiwan (and Japan for that matter). My faith in Taiwan has been restored for the millionth time knowing there are people here who are making and distributing good music.

And don't miss the magazine, Highway 11, available up and down the East Coast, that he and his sturdy Hakka girl edit.

Taiwanonymous introduces the world of Chinese pronouns for Deities:

I knew that there is a unique character (祂) in Chinese for the third-person pronoun of God, but I only recently came across something distinctive for referring to Satan. (For an interesting discussion about the use of the characters 祂 and 祢 as respectful or honorific ways of referring to God, see the comments section here.) In the work I was reading, the third-person pronoun 牠, which is normally used to refer to animals, was used throughout the text when referring to Satan. I wondered, is this a unique example of a de-honorific? Not to play the devil's advocate, but was the devil being demoted to a beast? Does this have anything to do with the traditional image of a hoofed Devil with tail and pitchfork?

I checked the most common edition of the Chinese Bible, the Union (和合) version. The Bible is not particularly fond of using third-person pronouns, and Chinese uses them even less than English, so it took a bit of looking to find some examples. The results were not conclusive in showing the beginnings of this usage. This translation does not even use the 祂 character for God, so, as expected, its treatment of Satan is very even-handed. In the temptation of Jesus in the desert, for example, the normal third-person pronoun 他 is used for the Devil. When Satan is characterized as a dragon, the pronoun for animals, 牠 is used.

Learn something new every day.....

As a university teacher, I am well aware that it is very easy to get a rep for being se, obsessed with sex. Probably everyone who has been in Taiwan a couple of years remembers the big flap about the Taipei sexuality prof who got reamed publicly because she had a link to a beastiality site on her website. That raging double standard is one reason my blog, which read by some of my students, is so light on sexual stuff. So it is with the most awed, jealous wonder that I contemplate the blog of Brian, who teaches at a university in southern Taiwan and regularly blogs on all sorts of outre sex stuff. This week there were entries on domination, and of course, polyamory:

Polyamory is more than just an excellent drag name. It's the state of being openly in love with more than one person, or having more than one love relationship simultaneously. Kind of like polygamy without the marriage part. Thanks to HBO's new series "Big Love," which features a Utah polygamist with three wives, romantic multitasking is getting viewed with a fresh new eye. Honestly, I think a lot of people are in polyamorous relationships. It's just that one member of the group doesn't know about it yet -- they're called "affairs." I mentioned this theory to Janet Kira Lessin, president and CEO of the World Polyamory Association, and she thinks it's just about right. "Our society suffers from pluralistic ignorance. We're doing one thing while professing another," she says."Polyamory is just another offshoot of people who are sick and tired of having to lie."

HBO has a series on polygamy? Interesting. I admire polyamorists; I hardly have the energy to keep up with one wife.

Peking Duck had a great post on an article in the IHT about Hu's charm offensive against Taiwan, and the two Chinas -- the foreign policy China that Hu handles so well, and the anarchy that is China at home...

The bottom line is this: Lin said this was exactly correct. There are two Chinas and they exist in separate universes. Now, this is not any great revelation. We've discussed it here many times, especially in regard to local officials who are free to act at whim with no fear of reprisal or justice, existing literally in a universe apart from The central Party. Lin said the great paradox here is that despite Hu's awesome power, he is literally helpless to make any changes in China's domestic situation, only in its foreign policy (which, granted, can then in turn affect China's domestic situation).

So I've been thinking about this paradox all week. Should we admire Hu Jintao as the Bismarck or Metternich of his time, using political skill to achieve enviable results? Or should we laugh at him for being utterly impotent to effect any meaningful change in the country over which he allegedly rules? If he is so utterly incapable of halting corruption, of freeing the innocent, of enforcing the law, of imprisoning unabashed scoundrel and murderers, why does he even live in China? Couldn't he set up a condo in Bermuda and run China's foreign policy from there? What difference does it make? According to Lin, he's literally irrelevant to China's domestic situation.

SHORTS: Tea Masters posts pics of her Qing Dynasty tea cups. Senorita Pequena reviews the Turkish Restaurant in Tainan. The Gentle Rant posts a wonderful series of pics on the Gods Themselves walking around his neighborhood. Apple Daily had another hate screed against foreigners, discussed at Forumosa: "Foreigners only interested in sex". Taiwanonymous checks out the image museum in Hsinchu. Don't miss the podcasting at Getting a Leg Up, The Bluesman's Killing Floor, Misadventures in Taiwan, Ugly Expat, The Formosa Diaries, and What's Up in Taiwan. As always, great photos at 35togo, Unplugged, the forgetful's photo gallery, the forgetful's photo gallery, amateur commune, andres, Clarke vs Matt, Cat Piano, T_C at Fotolog, battphotos, Fotologging Taiwan, Photoactionboy, leftmind, MaMaHuHu, Everything Visible is Empty, Roger in Taiwan, Love Songs (Are for Losers), Photoblogging Taiwan, Eight Diagrams, Tagging Taichung, Finding the Rabbit, and The New Hampshire Bushman in Taiwan and The World. Also, Waiguoren Project wants your stories.

WEATHER: Rain sucks. Cold rain sucks more. Gone by Wednesday, the weather bureau says.

NEW BLOGS ON THE ROLL:

Battlepanda
In and Around Taiwan
CrazyRedRain
China Confidential

HAPPENINGS:

Chili Cook Off in Taichung Sat Apr 22
Taipei Hypnosis Workshop Sun Apr 23
Blogging Roundtable Sat Apr 22 Tainan
International Democracy Forum Taipei April 29-30
Breakfast Club Meet Up, Taipei, May 6

[Taiwan] [media] [Taipei Times] [US] [China] [Asia] [Asian Blogs] [DPP] [English] [ESL in Taiwan] [PFP] [KMT] [Taichung] [Taiwan Blogs] [US Foreign Policy] [photography] [Taiwan Independence] [Suitcasing] [Buddhism] [Chen Shui-bian] [Chinese] [Ma Ying-jeou]

International Democracy Forum in Taipei

Jen at London Calling writes on a democracy meetup in Taipei this month, which I have stolen wholesale.

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International Democracy Forum in Taipei

In my perspective, democracy is one of the most powerful cards that people of Taiwan can play in the game of Taiwan-China controversy. I'm delighted to know that the Lung Yingtai Cultural Foundation is going to hold an International Democracy Forum on April 29 to 30 in Taipei to openly analyze whether the young, budding Taiwanese-style democracy can survive against various adversity and continue to thrive.

Free entrance to the forum but only 400 seats are availavle. For those who are interested, take a look at this introduction and forum schedule prior to signing up. Tel: +886 2 3322-4907 (Lung Yingtai Cultural Foundation)

To those who truly care about the democracy in Taiwan, see you there! ;-)

Cheers - Jen

Disclaimer: the author is not an employee of that foundation and not in any format affiliated with it either.

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[Taiwan] [Democracy]

Taichung Chili Cook Off

Karl posts on the First Annual Chili Cook Off in Taichung:

I like Chili, but don't know much about cooking it. Somebody send me a killer Chili recipe that I can use for the cookoff. If I use it and win the prize for best Chili, I promise that I will take full credit myself, claiming that the recipe has been in my family for generations. And none of that nuclear fire throat blistering stuff either. The cookoff is on Saturday, and I'd like to still be able to taste food at AJ's wedding on Sunday.

This Saturday, 22 April! More info on Karl's site.

Frankly, after eating Karl's chili on Saturday I doubt anyone will be able to eat at AJ's wedding on Sunday.

[Taiwan] [Taichung]

Swenson's Breakfast Club -- Saturday, May 6

Jerome Keating sent this around about the Breakfast Club in Taipei:

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A set of announcements:

First, our May meeting will be on the first Saturday, May 6th, at the same place Swensen's on Keelung Road, at 9:30 am. [MT: ADDRESS 9:30 am at the same place as last month; Swensen's #81 Keelung Rd. Sec. 2, Taipei.]You will get a second reminder of this in the week before the meeting, but this is to help you plan ahead.

Our speaker will be member Syd Goldsmith and he will talk on "Impressions of Taiwan both personal and from the perspective of the American Presence in Taiwan"

Syd first came to Taiwan as a language student in 1968 and from 1970 to 74 he served as Taiwanese Political Officer for the American Embassy (remember this was before the USA switiched its Embassy to Beijing). During this time numerous things were going on; Peng Ming-min escaped. Peng once a darling of the KMT had been arrested and imprisoned in 1964 for a manifesto calling for a democratic constitution and Formosan self-determination. It was later when he was under house arrest that he escaped. During this time Kissinger began his secret meetings in Beijing which led to Nixon's visit and the Shanghai Communique. Interesting times.

Syd returned to Taiwan in 1985 and served as head of AIT (no longer the embassy here because of Carter). This was the time after the Kaohsiung Incident and when Martial Law was lifted in 1987. Syd has since pretty well lived the remaining time in Taipei. Covering such a wide ranging period, this should be beneficial particularly for those whose experience is limited to Taiwan's democratic period. The talk will probably focus more on the period of 60's and 70's but have the benefit of hindsight and change.

Syd's novel, Jade Phoenix, which many of us have, takes place in this era. If anyone wishes to purchase a copy of it, I will tell Syd to bring some extras to the meeting. [MT: There's a review and link on my sidebar]

Second, for those that missed Jeffrey Martin's presentation last month on the Police in Taiwan, (subject of his Doctoral Dissertation at the University of Chicago), Michael Turton did an excellent job in writing it up on his blog; go there and look in the Archives for April 4th, 2006. [MT: Jeff Martin's Presentation on the Police]

Third, www.taiwanho.com has provided the Breakfast Club a space where members can learn about each other, and the organizations and associations they represent and/or support, place their profiles, blogs etc. as well as pass on information that members might be interested in. Contact Malcom at breakfast@taiwanho.com
The site is http://www.taiwanho.com/breakfast

Fourth, don't despair I am going to post the listings of books that have influenced our lives that people may get a better idea of where people are coming from in our discussions. This will be done as soon as I get my sh** (delete that word) together; I am working on it. For those who have not given me their top books that changed or influenced your lives, be thinking on it.

[Taiwan] [Taipei] [Taiwan Blogs]

A History of the Car Bomb, Part 2

Here's the link to the second installment of the History of the Car Bombs originally from TomDispatch.Com....

Gunboat diplomacy had been defeated by car bombs in Lebanon, but the Reagan administration and, above all, CIA Director William Casey were left thirsting for revenge against Hezbollah. "Finally in 1985," according to the Washington Post's Bob Woodward in Veil, his book on Casey's career, "he worked out with the Saudis a plan to use a car bomb to kill [Hezbollah leader] Sheikh Fadlallah who they determined was one of the people behind, not only the Marine barracks, but was involved in the taking of American hostages in Beirut… It was Casey on his own, saying, ‘I‘m going to solve the big problem by essentially getting tougher or as tough as the terrorists in using their weapon -- the car bomb.'"

The CIA's own operatives, however, proved incapable of carrying out the bombing, so Casey subcontracted the operation to Lebanese agents led by a former British SAS officer and financed by Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar. In March 1984, a large car bomb was detonated about 50 yards from Sheikh Fadlallah's house in Bir El-Abed, a crowded Shiite neighborhood in southern Beirut. The sheikh wasn't harmed, but 80 innocent neighbors and passersby were killed and 200 wounded. Fadlallah immediately had a huge "MADE IN USA" banner hung across the shattered street, while Hezbollah returned tit for tat in September when a suicide truck driver managed to break through the supposedly impregnable perimeter defenses of the new U.S. embassy in eastern (Christian) Beirut, killing 23 employees and visitors.

Despite the Fadlallah fiasco, Casey remained an enthusiast for using urban terrorism to advance American goals, especially against the Soviets and their allies in Afghanistan. A year after the Bir El-Abed massacre, Casey won President Reagan's approval for NSDD-166, a secret directive that, according to Steve Coll in Ghost Wars, inaugurated a "new era of direct infusions of advanced U.S. military technology into Afghanistan, intensified training of Islamist guerrillas in explosives and sabotage techniques, and targeted attacks on Soviet military officers."

U.S. Special Forces experts would now provide high-tech explosives and teach state-of-the-art sabotage techniques, including the fabrication of ANFO (ammonium nitrate-fuel oil) car bombs, to Pakistani intelligence service (or ISI) officers under the command of Brigadier Mohammed Yousaf. These officers, in turn, would tutor thousands of Afghan and foreign mujahedin, including the future cadre of al-Qaeda, in scores of training camps financed by the Saudis. "Under ISI direction," Coll writes, "the mujahedin received training and malleable explosives to mount car-bomb and even camel-bomb attacks in Soviet-occupied cities, usually designed to kill Soviet soldiers and commanders. Casey endorsed these despite the qualms of some CIA career officers".......

Go see the rest!

Victmizing Foreigners: Apple Daily Makes Up Another Story

A number of observers have commented on the way Apple Daily exploits sex and gore to sell papers, and appears to just make stuff up. In addition to generating sales through T&A, Apple Daily also appeals to is anti-foreigner prejudices.

A few months back Apple Daily burned ESWN with one of its made-up anti-foreigner stories, the famous "Macking in Taiwan" tale that resulted in the editor of the website being canned. More recently was this very typical bit of hate screed discussed over at Forumosa, "Foreigners only interested in sex". Now Writer's Block details a similar case in three posts on her blog in which an obvious hate crime is misreported by Apple Daily.......

Then he began to tell me that shortly after we'd danced, some men told him that he had to go i.e. leave the club. Some men took him outside and before he knew it there were three men beating him up with a baseball bat and baton. They hit him in the face, on his back, stomach, legs and knees. They told the American that a woman he'd danced with in the club was pressing charges of sexual harrassment; that she had gone crying to security claiming that he'd grabbed her breast. (*Not that, that could justify roughing someone up!) It was all mostly blur for him. At some point the police picked the American up and he made it to a police station where he reported the incident and made a statement with the help of a Taiwanese friend who translated for him. He also had to go to a hospital for treatment of his injuries. He was in pretty bad shape, his glasses were broken, face messed up, body bruised, head and body aching.

She then notes in her next post on the subject:

Got back from Korea today and Kaohsiung Boy passed along this article from the Apple Daily News, a publication which I'm sure many would agree is best described as being of the National Enquirer variety. Here's the article which gives a phony account of what happened at Dreams Club last Thursday, March 30:

A foreigner named Thomas was at the DREAMS pub last night, when an incident occurred around 1:50am. Thomas was grinding up against a hot-chick and subsquently irritated her male companion which resulted in the beating up of Thomas. When the police arrived, he was suffering from heavy bruises on his chest, face and arms and other parts of his body. His shirt was ripped off during the beating by the 2 to 3 people that took him outside and beat him up. Because he can't speak Chinese well, he was cussing when the cops arrived.

Of course, none of this is actually true. As Feli notes in her third post:

Funny thing is the "hot girl" mentioned in the Apple Daily News article, that he was grinding up at the club- ME was so NOT looking hot that night! I was dressed in long sleeve button down collared shirt and long pants, exposing the least amount of skin that I've ever exposed in a dance club! And my "male companion" Kaohsiung Boy most certainly did not order anyone to beat Thomas up that night.

Anti-foreigner prejudices run deep here, and sexual jealousies are just the ticket to bring them to the surface. Lots of foreigners out with their Taiwanese wives and girlfriends have bumped up against this problem. As Feli notes in her original description:

So the five of us ended up going to a local dance club, located behind the Sogo and Mitusoki Department Stores in downtown Kaohsiung. I haven't been there in about six months because I'd heard about a number of incidents involving Caucasian foreigners being beat up or hit over the head with a beer bottle for simply talking to, or dancing with a local Taiwanese woman.

I hope the poor victim of this incident gets justice, but somehow I just don't see it happening.

[Taiwan]

Johnny Neihu on Cheng Chung-mo Set Up

In last Sunday's blog round-up I rounded up a post over at Wandering to Tamshui on the Cheng Chung-mo case, which included some good comments from Tim at Indiac. The case involved a Grand Justice who had to resign over some alleged hanky-panky at a local hotel. The whole thing stank of a set-up, as Tim pointed out. Jason introduced the case thusly:

For those of you suffering through Taiwan scandal withdrawal, your delivery is at hand: Judicial Yuan Vice President and Grand Justice Cheng Chung-mou (城仲模) has resigned from his posts this week amid reports of an illicit and poorly-explained affair with an assistant professor.

Making a rare foray into trash journalism, the Apple Daily reported that Judge Cheng was seen entering a motel in Taipei County with A Woman Who Is Not His Wife, where they stayed for an all-too-brief 70 minutes. Chastened by the attention, but not broken, the allegedly randy jurist did his best to put an innocent spin on the relationship:

And Tim noted:

*The photographer from the wormy Apple Daily checked into a nearby room just over 10 minutes after Cheng and Wang arrived at the motel.

* The wormy photographer was seen scouting the location by a motel worker two days prior to the incident.

* The judge admitted going to the motel, but the woman denied everything (being with the judge, having a "stomachache," going to the motel, etc.).

* The woman in the photos is wearing the standard "victim" disguise (big hat and sunglasses).

* The wormy Apple Daily claimed to have records of phone calls between the woman and the judge. Unless they are the police, how is it possible that they have these records? Did the woman provide them? If not her, who?

* Contra what the Liberty Times said about an untouched room, my wife tells me he wormy Apple Daily had photos of a room with its bed messed up. I asked how they were able to get into the room to take such photos. She suspects that the wormy photographer photographed his own room. The people at the wormy paper do love "reenacting" stuff -- even if it didn't happen.

In an FTV interview, the judge said that the reason he stepped down ws that because he had been duped, the public would tend to doubt his ability to do his job.

Having said all that, I'll believe there was an "affair" when there's evidence. For now, it's part of the same story as the "backwards" flag: an attempt to distract the public from Ma Ying-jeou's slip'n'slide into the political abyss.

Johnny Neihu, whose Saturday Newswatch Feature on the media in and about Taiwan have been getting better each week, commented on the case today, elaborating on some interesting connections:

It was while I was reflecting on the fine-tuned skills required for olde-style seduction -- and the privacy that most of us enjoyed as we went about our business -- that I reflected on the pathetic spectacle presented by the downfall of Grand Justice Cheng Chung-mo (城仲模).

You all know the story: Cheng takes an allegedly sick and definitely cute law professor half his age to a motel to recover, all the while being snapped by an intrepid Apple Daily photographer (Apple Daily, "Grand justice takes woman to motel," April 5, page 1).

Whether Cheng really was on his hands and knees cleaning up after his companion's gastro or instead teaching her the finer points of forensics law, I'm not convinced that we really needed to know about all of this. I don't see what it has to do with Cheng's capacity to do his job, but I see very clearly what this has to do with that newspaper raking in shitloads of cash.

But hang on for a moment. No one has noted that one of the reporters on the case was Hsieh Chung-liang (謝忠良). Hsieh enraged the National Security Bureau back in 2002 for leaking state secrets in Next Magazine (possibly receiving tip-offs from disgruntled spooks) that put former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in a poor light, resulting in a raid by prosecutors. The material also somehow found its way to the China Times and Hsieh's brother, Hsieh Kung-pin (謝公秉), now People First Party (PFP) spokesman, as well as a number of PFP legislators -- including Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) before he returned to the KMT.

And Cheng, of course, was the grand justice accused by scallywag former legislator Su Ying-kuei (蘇盈貴) of attempting to pervert the course of a legislator's insanity. Cheng has had close ties to Lee Teng-hui throughout his later career and quickly attracted the ire of the blue camp when his cordial relationship with President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) became, in their opinion, too cordial.

That's some of the background. And I, like any half-assed journalist in this town, have been around long enough to know that things don't happen by accident.

These reporters were tipped off by Cheng's enemies of formidable standing, or else instructed by their superiors to get the judge. Given how much infidelity and how many dysfunctional families there are around the place, it is intriguing that the Apple Daily should choose this particular target. Who wanted one of the most senior judges in the land to fall, and why? Key questions, but you won't get the answers from the Apple Daily.

Hsieh was also sued by Liu Tai-ting back in 1996 for releasing a story that the KMT offered $15 million to the re-election campaign of President Clinton. The story's source later settled, and Hsieh and the American journalist involved were cleared by the court. Hsieh's previous foray into espionage in 2002 is detailed here.

I doubt we'll get any answers about why Cheng was setup! Cheng was involved in numerous campaigns as Justice Minister -- for example, cleaning up organized crime, and investigating Chinese money in Taiwan's elections back in the late 1990s. But feel free to email me what the little birds have been whispering in your ears, Johnny! I won't tell anyone except my loyal readers.....

UPDATE: Over on Forumosa Brian Kennedy pointed out that the Other Woman has an MBA from an unaccredited university, Preston U.

[Taiwan] [media]

Transcript: Seminar "FTAs and the Case for Taiwan" on Apr 13 at GWU

A friend forwarded me this transcript of a recent seminar at GWU, where I did my masters. It's too long for me to comment meaningfully on, so enjoy.......informative and excellent questions at the end.

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A transcript of the seminar "FTAs and the Case for Taiwan" on Apr 13 at GWU

Opening Remarks: David Tawei Lee; Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States

First, I'd like to thank the Sigur Center for Asian Studies & the George Washington University for sponsoring such a good event on Taiwan and FTAs. I very much appreciate the efforts of the Sigur Center for lining up distinguished group of scholars on this issue. We will all benefit from the wisdom and expertise of the panelists. Since ‘79, when we lost formal diplomatic ties with US, however, I think many fronts the two countries maintain may close connections. On the political and security fronts, we can be categorized as an ally. On the economic front, we are enjoy an even closer, intertwined relationship—a partnership between out two countries. Taiwan is the number eighth largest trading partner with the US. Bilateral trade is currently US$56.9bn. (more stats).

As I recall vividly, upon reporting to this position in 2004, rice, pharmaceuticals, and IPR were all significant issues. Thanks to efforts in Taipei and in Washington we welcomed our Minister of Economic Affairs to talk with her counterparts in US government in December, 2004. As we approached the summer of 2005, I had lunch with my counterpart in the USTR. We discussed how we had almost exhausted our remaining issues; that they had been mostly resolved. I asked if that was good news bad news—we've lost most of our issues.

I'm a government official paid by taxpayers. I need to do something. I need new issues, looking to a new phase of TIFA talks in Taipei. We have high hopes that, through the TIFA talks, we will have further accomplishments in bilateral trade. After the TIFA talks, we will be better able to upgrade our issues. Looking to the US ITC survey report issued two years ago: if our two governments sign a FTA, US exports will climb 16%. In some sectors, even further—trade in auto parts, autos, foodstuffs like rice, fish, will all increase more than 100%. This is very encouraging economic news for all, these future benefits for our two countries. However, our government is very realistic. Negotiating a FTA is very tedious and can take many years to negotiate successfully. On the Taiwan side, our government and business are still in the process of preparaing for this approach. Once it is launched, it will be comprehensive, working with business, academia, and grassroots organizations. I am looking forward to hearing you today and working today towards increasing the public partnership with US and the ROC Taiwan.

Panel I: The Path to FTAs: Economic & Political Factors

Panel I: Michael Moore, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, GWU
Thanks for having me here this afternoon. I'm a trade economist, not a specialist on Taiwan. So, I'll start with general overview of how the US has picked its contemporary FTA partners, especially in Bush admin. There are very striking patterns of recent US –FTAS—the number has exploded. In 200, pre-Bush, the US had four FTAs: Israel, Canada, Mexico, and Jordan. The US has long been primarily a proponent of the multilateral approach to free trade—with the GATT, etc. The commitment to that multilateral approach is reflected in the small number of FTAs with close allies like Israel, and neighbors like Canada and Mexico. In the Bush years, however, a number of initiatives have been completed: Chile, Singapore, Morocco, Peru, and the CAFTA-Dominican Republic, This is already more FTAs than had ever been initiated by the US prior to 2000. The US also as number of continuing negotiations currently underway. These include recently, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates (a little complicated right now by the Dubai ports deal), Panama, and the Southern Country customs union. Clearly, these include a wide range of countries. These are poor, developed, all over the map. Notable countries that are not here: the EU, Japan, Taiwan, China, India—a number of countries with great potential and importance to the US economy. The US has chosen to launch FTAs wit some and not others. Not because other countries are not interested. Mostly, representatives from these countries are interested. But the USTR and US government then point out the comprehensive nature of US FTAs. They involve goods, like manufacturing and agriculture. These areas of trade, in some ways are the easier to deal with. Everyone understands protective tariff and nontariff barriers. Although things like sugar and rice are important politically, negotiations are fairly straightforward. Services are very complicated to negotiate. It's hard to measure the restriction of accounting services. It's a matter of access and enforcement of access. Intellectual Property Rights are also very important. US does TRIPS PLUS – increased IPA commitments countries need to follow do before engaging in a US FTA. Investment and Finance issues are also important. Disputes over FDA, arbitration systems are needed to provide security of countries and investing firms. While the Bush stances on labor and environment are not always popular in Congress, are still important; countries have to enforce their own laws. Current FTAs do not include US provisions on labor or environmental (e.g., child labor, max pollution). If Democrats were in power, this might be different. That's the nature of these agreements. When someone shows up and says I want an FTA, the Egyptians for example, US will give them the book – that's the agreement, with all the many specific laws and statues. It's very, very complicated. When a country wants to do this, it needs to understand the full complexity of the process.

How Bush picks partners—Economic potential. In some ways this is a narrow definition—how much would economic activity increase in the two countries? The US is also still thinking multilaterally: looking at this agreement and how it affects the ongoing DOHA round at WTO—this must be taken into account. Readiness is also a key factor—is the trading partner ready to implement the agreement? Countries need to be comprehensive and ready now. Foreign policy concerns are crucial. Oman, for example, is not at head of list economic potential, but increased commerce in the Middle East is crucial to US in current troubled times. Foreign economic and broad policy interest is important and Congressional support is also vital. Both houses must agree by majority vote.

For Taiwan, vocal support exists in Congress, but Trade Promotion Support is running out in 2007. The Administration will need to get Congressional approval again. Taiwan's rank in list of FTA benefits: #12. Even more detailed, there have been estimates on what impact a US-Taiwan FTA would have. Pretty trivial for US in terms. Bigger for Taiwan. Typical; big country, small impact—small country, big impact.

1 issue I have from an economics perspective is trade diversion. Increased trade from US is a cost to country (Taiwan) engaging in FTA. From an economics standpoint, this is a problem with all FTAs. There is, however, clear econ potential with US-Taiwan FTA, particularly on Taiwan. Clear Congressional support must be made clear. But for political decisions, it could be very difficult. In conclusion, FTA is very complicated, and only launched when it can be completed in time to garner Congressional support for the agreement. I am very much looking forward to hearing what other panelists have to say.

Panel I: Frances Zwenig, Counselor, US-ASEAN Business Council
It occurred to me since I've been working on Thailand and Taiwan issues, that when they are being dealt with at the same time, that proponents of both should take a map to ensure Congress members know which you're talking about. Further, I recommend to you that you get copies of 2 CRS reports Nov 4 2005 (Taiwan Accession to WTO) and Jan 17 2005 (Free Trade). Disclamers: I am not trade law expert, though I have worked on Hill and with US-ASEAN business council. I see myself today as a Resource person. I am currently working on Thai, Malay and Singaporean FTAs. I'll be sharing expertise and posing some questions.

Right now, US dictated by current version of TPA passed by only one vote and will expire in 2007. That's a very narrow window and full plate for USTR. Review of process: TPA authority agreement to launch, the Administration must notify Congress, allows 90days consultation. Next, letter from USTR goes to head of houses, outline benefits and sensitive issues. Taiwan for example: IPR, telecom, pharmaceuticals environment, and labor. Negotiations occur, Continue with countries and congress. The completed agreement is presented to congress under TPA – expedited and non-amendable (this is key). Likelihood of new ones between now and end of TPA? Let's review what USTR's already got on its plate:

Thailand FTA (on life support already) case study example what not to do. FTA proponents in Thailand let anti-FTA forces out a head and framed debate before the current political crisis. Signed Peru FTA. Others as well (Columbia) not yet passed. Announced Korea and Malaysia negotiations. USTR thinking about Malaysia pressure on Thailand, though will not admit it. USTR need to wrap up PNTR for Russia and Vietnam. USTR will try to renew PNTR before it expires again. HUGE workload for small agency (of workaholics). Congressional workload also a factor. See Vitetam—if bilateral is not agreed upon very quickly, Congress will not here it before recess. In September, legislative days are limited and trade will take a backseat to other legislation, particularly since elections are coming—no trade issues near to elections. So, a very narrow window.

Trade writ large: Dubai ports, outsourcing, CNOOC bid for Unocal. Not much enlightened debate in contemporary US. Not going to change anytime soon. Unlikely the USTR will take on any more this year, and less likely to undertake any more anytime soom. If Democrats gain in elections? Near term, more antitrade. CW this year is that TPA will not be passed again. Hard to get it by the one vote. Chances not much better next spring. Creative minds must look for other ways (they are out there) to look for ways to strengthen economic and trade links between countries.

Panel I: Greg Mastel, Principal, Miller & Chevalier
As the third panelist, lots of stuff has been covered already. Tend to not be as unique so I'll try to hit other topics. I was chief Senate staff person on Intl Trade for last round TPA negotiation on Hill. At that point Democrats were in charge. Important to note: Congress is not as hostile to FTAs as CW might suggest. We've heard about explosion of FTAs—US phenomenon, but also global phenomenon as well, with 250 regional FTAs registered with WTO. 130 since 1995 – this volume indicates a global phenomenon. Not counting the approximately 100+ FTA-type agreements not listed by the WTO. Before 2002, US has four FTAs with politically & economically important partners. FTAs were a rarely used tool. Took off after 2002, with Chile, Singapore, Australia, CAFTA, Bahrain, etc wrapped and approved. Columbia, Oman, Peru, are negotiated but not before Congress). Negotiating authority runs out soon, and still out there are Thailand, S. Korea, etc. Not getting done before this extension of PTA. Why so many going on now? A number of main driving reasons: FTAs are achievable. While there are real advantages to global agreements, those can get hard to do with 150+ countries. FTAs are easier to deal with and get negotiated. See recent WTO negotiations. FTAs have real positive US economic and political incentives. Tactical reasons for pursuing FTAs: first, as WTO negotiating leverage. While the WTO is better – larger group of countries, bigger economic bang, wow to get those countries to move forward on sensitive sectors, etc. Theory of liberalization , if the US can't proceed with WTO, use FTAs to broker new agreements, setting precedent and pressures other countries. The fear of being left behind and locked out is crucial. More willing to participate in the WTO if there's an example in the region. Rep Thomas of House Ways and Means recently said Only FTAs, ban WTO! Perhaps for public consumption… but an example of why FTAs are pursued by US.

US also wants to keep markets open to US firms. Need to maintain access to key markets. With China increasingly aggressive in Asia, and the ASEAN countries the US worried of closure of Asian markets of they are not active in the region.

Congressional support for FTAs. Congress' CW is critical of FTAs, but this doesn't hold up when one looks at the votes. FTA votes are not that close usually. Fast track TPA, however, was very close in the House. But that's about legislative authority—Congress is worried about giving up its authority. Not about trade, about keeping Congressional prerogatives of power. Division of power, etc. The NAFTA debate had impact on US re: the benefits of free trade. CAFTA too. Regardless, there is usually good bipartisan support for FTAs. The TPA passed originally, and there's good base for bipartisan consensus. TPA versus FTA is key issue here.

Future US FTAs. Negotions with 10 countries underway, but TPA expires in 2007. To get in this round, move quick! At most parties have months, even a year. Getting to the point when quickness is key. A lot of this is political authority issues. Need to get this stuff done in the next year? Hard to predict what Congress will do, political dynamics are fluid. Bush could get through before with a more Democratic Senate. Still true today. Environment & Labor are also key issues, but still most key issues are political power ones. Popular countries could be passed quickly. Not as sure that the current fast track is the last we get. Possible to get new fast track or new TPA. Even if no, more FTAs after. This is not a drop dead date!

Refocusing strategy. In my personal view, the problems thus far under Bush are not looking at economically significant FTAs—more good for US, bigger econ impact. Unlike CAFTA (sound like NAFTA—mistake). FTAs that benefit the US are more likely to pass. US export biggest markets: Canada, Mexico, Japan, (pol imperatives) China (not ready) EU member states (EU not politically likely—WTO can do it, why in FTA?), that leaves: S Korea and Taiwan. SK already in the neg. Taiwan already a better sell, many hurdles have already been resolved.

Tactically, how to kep strong foothold in Asia. EU locking us out of markets? Bigger worry is China locking us out. Taiwan & SK have important tactical advantages. Professor Moore said political problems have prevented FTA with Taiwan. Isconcern of PRC enough to keep Taiwan off the table. I say no. Possible FTAs in future, what are US long-term interests, where should FTAs be? Keep access to key markets, impetus to WTO negotiations. Thus FTAs will continue to be important, and Taiwan an important issue in that.

Q&A:
Alasdair Bowie, GWU: On Greg Mastel's comment that Taiwan already having reached compromise on many issues. What are the benefits of concluding an FTA with Taiwan, then? Might they be less than if they'd started from zero? Have we minimized benefits of concluding an FTA? Moore: Technically, due to modeling of our study, these technical issues are not affecting those rankings. On the broader point about there being alternative ways of getting econ benefits of FTAs with out the finalizing legal structure is the most important issue. Clearly, most impotant reason for having a FTA with US is the stamp of approval – a trustworthy partner, particularly important on investment side. Many countries already have broad access to US under WTO etc, but the investment chapter is very, very important. If a country already has access to US, and feels comfortable, the benefits have been realized. FTA gives permanence to the benefits. 6-month abrogation clause. Potential loss of econ benefits without FTA.

Lisa Cheung, Sumitomo: Japan FTA not viable in Congress? Mastel: My sense echoes the problems of the 1980s. Japan is a very hard sell to Congress, the auto, steel etc. industries would have issues. Japan itself also doesn't have desires for it strong enough. It has a web of its own FTAs, and is a developed country already. US agriculture would also be concerned for concrete gains as well as auto steel looking at concrete losses. Hard sell bilaterally. 2 estimates done on Taiwan benefits regarding IPR and Agriculture, Taiwan needs to actually pursue WTO regulations. How to advise Taiwan? More difficult. Zweing: On Japan, there is talk,. in preamble to joint statement urging formal exploratory talks. Some in Japan and at Japanese embassy. Context of FTAs within WTO. Var. debate in congress, all 26 current US FTAs combined 12% of free trade issues. Doha takes care of 96%. Focus on that intstead?

Jay Liu: Intl. Assessment and Security Center: From a Foreign Policy perspective, might the Taiwan FTA be a problem b/c of PRC. There are actually increased benefit to US b/c China is trying to isolate ROC. Make it less likely that Taiwan can maintain econ. growth. Mastel: I do agree, actually. Cite article on analysis of what's going on in Asia. Long term concern for US, Asia is bigger role. This could be bad news for US leadership role in region and economic power. Asia trade is important to US, a necessity to Taiwan. China is more aggressive. APEC group also seems to be marginalized by dev of China.

Pricilla Hoffman, DOS: degree of US biz support? No groundswell for US biz in Taiwan or here, for an FTA. Mastel: The next panel will better address that. I think that my experience with US biz is that FTAs are good. My sense is though, how to deal with PRC is also key to biz interest. China question plays role in future plans. Not in keeping with econ realities. That said, some significant US interest in Taiwan FTA.

Eric Smith, UP copyright: strongly in support to Taiwan FTA, reluctance on part of some b/c of China to voice support.

Crocker, Byrd: PNTR on Russia? Zwenig: It's pretty bleak. I don't work Russia, but I read about it. The deteriorating political relations between US and Russia imperils PNTR for Russia. Russians have not done what they need to do. PNTR is not protected, no mandate for expeditious ness. Could be loaded up with freedoms and such. Floor people look at that and say oh my goodness. It's problematic at this point.

Alasdair Bowie, GWU: Follow up to Zwenig – laying political ground for FTAs what are your lessons from Thailand? Zwenig: from beginning, HIV/AIDS drugs and pharmaceuticals would be a problem. Thailand, like S. Africa, is on the forefront of making drugs available and a leader on dealing with HIV/AIDS. US legislators started talking about this with NGOs, they said, poor people weren't going to be able to afford drugs. No one said “no, that's not right.” (they are protected. Drug companies supplied info reassuring them, but the Thai government dropped the ball. Ministries never had mandate to solve issues, e.g. customs – keeps getting worse. E.g. new airport Ex/Im problems too, DHL/FEDEX. No leadership to stop trade thwarting policy. Early harvest agreement with China, allowing Chinese agriculture. Goods to come into N Thai duty free—cheap onion and garlic wiped out Northern Thai farmers. Very sour taste in Thai's mouths and Thai govt. didn't doing much. Now AMCHAM Bangkok reaching out to expand, but it was up to American companies to make the sale of the FTA. Thai government unable to deal.

Nadia Chao, Liberty Times: China as assembly center for goods: if US does FTA and other bilateral trade would it impact trade deficit US-China? Mastel: In terms of overall trade deficit, not sure what FTA would do. What is important, though, is the multibillion dollar increase in US Exports if a Taiwan FTA is inked. Overall impact of US-China trade deficit is beyond scope of Taiwan FTA…. Currency and other markets etc. play a big role in that. It's not necessarily a most important priority for setting FTA choices.

Taiwanese American Assoc: Assessment of US level of support for FTA with Taiwan? Zwenig: I'm not able to answer. I have noticed, though, that labor issues have been improved in Taiwan, on the Hill, Taiwan labor was not a big issue. Every country is on the list of labor, but not as much as, say, the CAFTA countries.

Panel II: The Case for Taiwan
Panel II: Francis Liang, Director, Economic Division, TECRO
Thank you for that kind introduction and for arranging this opportunity to talk about a FTA with Taiwan. We have laid the groundwork and established the environment for FTA negotiations, so I don't have to spend too much time on that general subject. If you are interested, I have my presentation ready outside, including Taiwan's economic profile in general. I will move on to potential benefits of a Taiwan US FTA. Then, what is most important, is that Tawian is a strong FTA partner. Taiwan is ready to partner. As you know, Taiwan has transformed itself from agricultural nation to one of most developed in the world, and a APEC and WTO member. Some figures of Taiwan's econ dev: Per cap 15,000US, Foreign trade 471USD. 15th largest in world. 4.2bn FDI, foreign 253bn. Keep relatively low unemployment rate 4.1%. That's what happened in past and brought Taiwan to its current status. What's in the future? 1. Tech innovation, 2. investment environment 3. growth competitiveness.

WEF say Taiwan's tech innovation is #3 in world. Investment enviro #5. Growth competitiveness #5 in world. #3 in Asia for potential profit opportunities. This is why, though cheap labor no longer available, and labor intensive industry leaving, more and more tech companies are looking to Taiwan to set up R&D facilities in Taiwan. Taiwan is good mix for US trading partner and a staunch ally in Asia.

FTA developments in East Asia: Taiwan has signed 2 FTAs (with Guatemala and Panama) and is pursuing others, particularly with the US, because the US is traditionally a big trading partner. We have seen cooperation between our two business communities, and we need to help them become more competitive in the region. When we negotiated our FTAs, we look at US FTAs as an example. When we are to negotiate with US, the texts will have been reviewed—we are more ready than others to begin negotiations based on the criteria of US FTA partners. As a GAO report states, there are six of such criteria: readiness, econ benefit, benefit for broader trade liberalization strategy, compatibility with US, congressional support, business support, and long term benefit. Taiwan is a ready and able partner for US FTA by these criteria.

As you've heard, a few of the current US FTA countries are having their domestic problems – on life support, as Ms. Zwenig said. The current efforts from Taiwan to pursue a US FTA are supported by both the ruling party and opposition party—there is very strong bipartisan support for signing an FTA with US. This is a very very important factor. Both parties realize that our economic future is in many ways tied to our overall trade and economic relations with the US. The second point is since joining the WTO in 2002, Taiwan has undertaking many liberalization efforts already. A catch-22? Per the earlier question, if we resolved these issues, will benefits be smaller? Not at all. We all know FTA is WTO-PLUS. Just WTO is only WTO-compliant. By WTO rules, outside WTO MFN rules, Taiwan can offer special treatment with FTA to the US. As mentioned, we've already dealt with many bilateral issues .We reopened market to US beef, for example.

Economic benefits to US from FTA with Taiwan, 8th global trading partner. From two studies by ITC etc that FTA US exports will up 3.4bn dollars with FTA, and US commercial gains for US exporters even larger. 6.4bn dollars—commercial benefits could look small since US is so big, but we must look at things in perspective. A Taiwan FTA offers larger benefits than all other countries that US has already signed or is pursuing FTAs with. Within the top ten for US mfg goods: Taiwan does not have an FTA, while all others who do not have FTAs have significant issues preventing freer trade (Japan, China, EU). Taiwan is only one with a liberalized trade regime and wanting an FTA without one.

Broader Trade Lib strategy—Taiwan's role in expanding WTO free trade. Taiwan has supported many US stances in the DOHA round, eg. NAMA, And zero point zero sectoral eliminations. Taiwan also has high compatibility with US industrial goods. Many US companies have est. in Taiwan. 28 R&D centers from US companies have been established. For example, in flat panel LCD industry, Taiwan will surpass Korea this year, with 44% of the US market. Corning is a partner, and recently opened a second R&D center in Taiwan. This represents the largest single investment in Corning's 100+ year history. They are assured that their position will be protected at head of flat panel LCD industry. Reintroduced Congressional resolution this year, with 30 members signed on, and Baucus submitted the joint proposition for FTA with Taiwan. Also, wide support from the business sector. Leave to Rupert to discuss…

There has also been wide support from many state govts, national assoc. sec of state. 19 State senates and assemblies have passed resolutions to support US-Taiwan FTA. Growth in trade with Asia remains very strong. In 2005 two-way trade US-Asia = 1/3 US trade. (US-EU onfiltered= 1/5). Asia is important, most important for US trade policy. Taiwan plays an important part in that region and allows for the building links in region. Both are WTO members, and have pursued total trade lib and showed sincerity by resolving telecom, beef, and IPR issues—support from IPR alliance of US is without reservation. Reason we think its important to build stronger partnership. Taiwan is already one of US most important trade partners. An FTA would nurture these ties. It is time to move towards next stage in our relationship, an FTA with Taiwan and the United States.

Panel II: Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President, US-Taiwan Business Council

I wish to echo the last significant thing that Francis said. There is indeed business support for a US-Taiwan FTA in the US, it may not be loud enough yet, but I do want to push back on those who say otherwise. Even looking at an ITA report on FTA from 3 years ago, 300+ US firms stepped forward even then. Though there are still barriers. I want to talk about the Taiwan China relationship and economic marginalization, and legacies of US-Taiwan relations. Debate on Taiwan-China is a global debate: how to deal with China as an economic power? Disquiet over outsourcing, reliance on China for goods and services, etc. Manufacturing is centered in China and creating a great deal of unease. X-Straits relations have had highs and lows, but Taiwan's burgeoning presence in China and flow of investment bespeak great levels of integration. 100bn+? in China, and 2-way trade will surpass 80bn this year. Much of this is extralegal as far as Taiwan is concerned due to legacy restrictions. Currently, these are an important tool for Taiwanese government. Taiwan China relations have been particularly challenging over the past 3 years. As with all relationship problems, there's plenty of responsibility to go around. China's political maneuvering seeks to divide Taiwan's polity in two while maintaining the flow of investment. Other dynamics include Taiwan threatened militarily, and politically, (isolation). Can't invest anywhere else besides the mainland, and thus the tensions increase.

US-S Korea FTA, very important step for the US. Equally so for the Malaysia FTA. Korea looking to sign other FTAs in region. US acts as a hedge to Korean economy, and protection from Chinese domination. Taiwan, however, can't sign FTAs with regional partners. Taiwan's exclusion from regional economic agreements is undermining its power economically. We are all vested as representatives of industry in Taiwan's continued growth and opportunity, bilateral/multilateral regional integration, and bringing Taiwan in from the outside. How else can the bns of US dollars invested in Taiwan be recouped? They want a vibrant Taiwan. The critical dimension here is US leadership, US must want agreement—it should, otherwise China will continue to marginalize Tawian, Taiwan will be weaker—economically, strategically, etc. I wanted to share something: of greater to concern to Taiwan are regional trade agreements that include China but not Taiwan. Negative welfare effects would be 1.1% of GDP for Taiwan per annum. US FTAS with other major econ consequences with Taiwan, could compel competitive liberalization. Taiwan has been unable to do so thanks to China's marginalization.

Bush noted in Kyoto that Taiwan moved towards democracy and capitalism and is now a most important trade partner. Taiwan is global powerhouse and for it to be excluded from FTAs, marginalizes Taiwan and US interests. Invested resources—see Corning. Taiwan needs to remain competitive. Need an FTA. US is hugely vested in both Chinese and Taiwan econ health. Manage tensions and growth. Robust defense obligation… Taiwan-China, Taiwan-US. All in US best interest b/c of tension reduction. Due to the unified front strategy of China, Taiwan's deteriorating economic opportunities. New game in town is FTAs and they're growing rapidly. Regional, multi, and bi. Taiwan needs to participate in that for US interests in a healthy Taiwan. Crucial to US interests, are Taiwan's crucial places in the global supply chain, etc. Need that chain to evolve in a positive direction. Not to be subject to trade diversion, Global economy is vested in having both sides of this issue. US could provide a steadying hand and suppor the status quo by increasing FTAs in region.

Panel II: M.T. “Terry” Cooke, Founder and CEO, GC3 Strategy, LLC
Apologies for being late. Philly is great, except for Amtrak. Sorry.

For 2 reasons, both of which are sound, I'll take a modest approach. To make time for Q&A, and since I'm at a disadvantage having missed what the experts have said, and, following the rhythm of the day, no numbing detail. It's always a pleasure to follow Rupert. I've had numerous occasions to share podium with him. While Rupert zooms out, I focus on policy/micro stuff primarily from research interviewing Taiwan IT CEOs getting a feel for dynamics of IT sector development across the Strait. It is important to understand the development of this dynamic. Given importance of Taiwan globally, vital to look at role of FTA and IT.

I'd like to touch on each of 5 decades to give sense of deeply rooted, broad and powerful place Taiwan has within the global IT supply chain. Its strength even post “.com” collapse and the rise of the DPP indicate how little the direction & momentum were effected by political factors—in fact this development has accelerated despite X-Strait integration issues. There are three very broad criteria of evaluating FTA use and I'll quickly use them in the IT supply chain ouvre.

Taiwan's main feature from a specialized IT perspective (historically and in present) is while there has been some degree of integration of var. sectors, it has been accelerating in force X-Straits, despite fundamental political change. E.g. notebook computers, Overall, this integration is an enduring and gathering force. 70s: period of creation of electronic research orgs in Taiwan. RCA, C-mos circuits, etc. Success with close cooperation. 80s: the creation of UMC, TSMC: two entities the culmination of private sector and government joint effort, through Shinju Science-based industry park. 90s: support industries for Tawian's PC and chip firms. Up & downstream support gave Taiwan the edge it needed to compete and win in global markets. 80s 90s, IT golden years, manufacturing meshed with better capital accumulation, unlocked growth and effortless manufacturing-focused innovation. (interesting angle: issue of where future innovation will come from to drive Taiwan's cont. econ growth.. Taiwan model innovated at manufacturing level… now, with it leaving Taiwan, where's the development impetus going to come from? How vital an FTA is to supporting that innovation). In terms of last 5 years, note four trends and 3 indicators to give a sense of this dynamic.

Trends:

Effects of global economy

Multiaterality of Taiwan/China econ (WTO)

China as low cost shop floor

Taiwan: KMT-DPP change
March 2004 election-how little DPP rule/policy had fundamentally deflected the direction or pace of integration of IT X-straits. 2000 vs 2004, 2000 parity. 2004, China doubled exports from Taiwan. There is a growing asymmetry between China and Taiwan. China is now more important to Taiwan than vice versa. Issue of the best-guess estimates of Tawain's FDI stake in Mainland. Official ests. at 7-8%, true share 20-22.5% for roundtrip money and investment via Caribbean islands. Just short of HK and is significantly ahead of EU, US, Japan. These years accelerated IT links between Taiwan and China, despite differing policy environments.

The 4 Criteria (applied vis IT)
Further US trade agenda? Clearly, Taiwan's IT sector is not a big factor. Major lack of alignment on Tawian US at Doha are on agriculture, not IT.

Braadness of domestic Support. Rupert said this. I'd echo. More support that expected, a funny example of why it's less vocal—mayor of top 20 US city touring China, nationwide visit on CCTV said, welcome to invest in Dallas, named Foxcon perfect company (Foxcon is Taiwanese).Mistake! Frequently at C-bit show, enthusiasm of China pavilion doubled etc, but actual count of companies, generally, 70-80% at Cbit are Taiwan equity owned firms in Chinese pav. Taiwan is support for entire ecology of EU, US, Chinese branded IT firms. Level of contribution is not clear.

Contrib. to Bilateral free trade principles etc. Not a spokesman anymore, but broadly speaking, there were some service related issues and telecom, e-commerce, but these are being addressed, handled, and managed, through the annual commercial negoations process and are very minor irritants.

Election cycles, etc. 1st panel?
Final tech issue in connection of an FTA, when one takes the assertion that tight integration of IT space between China and Taiwan. Hard to separate Taiwanese component from China component of value…In conclusion, the IT global supply chain, joint interests of Tawian and US, OEM ODM partners in innovation and strategic aspects of integration into Chinese econ, and the stability it brings. Taiwan is only country in Asia without supporting web of FTAs… success of Beijing's marginalization campaign. Knock-on effect of Taiwan FTA could benefit of economic concern to US. Global supply chain performance and values that underly that performance.

Q&A
Melissa Coil Sandham International: Where innovation might come from? Taiwan's government role in becoming R&D innovation hub? Liang: As I explained we do not have cheap land, labor, production resources, but we have high quality human resources, it is part of government policy to transform Taiwan into a knowledge based econ. 70% of GDP comes from Service sector. Many R&D centers have been established in Taiwan, as evidenced by Terry's talk of IT development. Investing more in R&D. e.g. IT supply chain. 73% of notebook computers are made by Tawianese companies. 79% PDAs are made by Taiwanese companies—carry big names, but made by Taiwan in China, with the R&D in Taiwan itself. Concentrating on marketing and logistics management as well as R&D—the future value of Taiwanese innovation. Cooke: 3 theories on how to keep Taiwan at the forefront- 1. Replicate Shinju—parks! Hardware solution… easy to make science parks… everyone can do that now… enough to keep Taiwan in front? 2. More R&D dollars (OEM model – low margin low RD) dilemma – its like prospecting for oil – lots of shallow wells or one deep well, hard to know where money should go, shouldn't be Taiwan's only horse. 3. Human brains – high quality of Taiwan workforce and corporate front office capabilities of Taiwan's business community. E.g. TSMC they invented the entire concept of what foundry production is, shifting entire industry from manufacturing model to high margin service-focused model. Most spectacular example, by no means the only example. Liang: It's the entrepreneurial spirit. Nothing can stop them. This is a very important factor. Hammond-Chambers: Why relate FTA between legacy relationships benefits are factor of Taiwan's entrepreneurial spirit etc. What's the next killer app? Regardless, Taiwan has--in last 10-15 year--been critical partner in creating deploying, ALL the major IT applications that have been hugely successful. If Taiwan is marginalized, we lose out to, on down the line if Taiwan is marginalized.

GWU student: seems that FTA between US and Taiwan benefits companies with established relations with Taiwan, what about cos with no interests in Taiwan: Hammond-Chambers: A good question, why go there now? IP as we move in to knowledge-based economy, globally, IP development and protection becomes key to a nations wealth, you'll see the importance of IPR protection in attracting industries. Clustering—need for security. China does not have panel industry yet, it will, but good government, qualified people, IPR protections… Flat panel industry did NOT go to China for these reasons. These reasons will keep attracting high-end manufacturing and development. TC: Eg DELL, at the consumer level, many benefit from products at consumer level, also huge service components. Could not have happened without Taiwan components. Dell is good at getting to US Markets. With lowering prices, increasing goodness. Dell is out of manufacturing, its skill is managing info on US market and gave it to Taiwan, saying lighter faster stronger better, and Taiwan does it. If Taiwan US connection would atrophy, all that would be damaged. Liang: A terry explained, Taiwan used to be manufacturing, now in design, MS, Intel Dell, etc, Taiwan companies have capabilities to turn US ideas into products (maybe the actual manufacturing is elsewhere, but RD is in Taiwan.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [trade]

Which of these things is not like the other?

One of the more exciting lotteries you can play on The Beautiful Isle is the food lottery: is it real? or is it fake? Shown here are two bottles of extra virgin olive oil I bought in a local supermarket. On one hand you have living proof of the laudable advance in food availability in Taiwan, when even small-town supermarkets offer imported foods (olive oil has become a bit of a fad here). On the other, this is just another chapter in the ongoing saga of "the more things change...."

The bottle on the left is darker oil of Spanish origin, according to the label. It's not exactly top-shelf oil, but it gets the job done. The right-hand bottle, however, is a light-colored oil of dubious origin. The oil seems to be a product of "Tatung" company and is labeled "extra virgin olive oil." It, however, is no more virgin than I am. Rather, it appears to be some cheap vegetable oil, probably soybean oil, with an acrid bite and a used car-salesman sliminess, instead of a lip-slippery buttery flavor. According to my wife, who was highly amused by my ineptitude in the oil department, the Tatung oil brand has been mentioned in the local Chinese-language media several times for fraudulent oils. The moral of the story should be obvious: consult wife before stepping out the door to buy stuff.....

[Chinese Food] [Taiwan] [olive oil]

Over at Jujuflop.....

.....David has two excellent analyses of Ma Ying-jeou, the arms sale, and the recent rejection of Chen Shui-bian's appointment for prosecutor-general:

In both cases, I would argue that the main issue is that Ma just doesn’t have full control over KMT legislators. Although it’s a tried-and-trusted technique to say positive things in interviews and then conveniently forget about them, I don’t think that is happening here. Ma’s US trip was much more difficult for not having anything positive to say about arms sales - instead of having a proposal to wave, he was left defending the indefensible. Equally, he didn’t have to advise the KMT Caucus to have an open vote this week - he could simply have left the decision up to the caucus without any advice if he wanted to wash his hands of the whole affair.

David reads this in a more conservative way than I did -- I read it as Ma saying to Americans what he wanted them to hear, and then coming home and it is business-as-usual, a common behavior for those with status in this society. However, I think Ma gave us a clue to his true attitude when he told his Americans, to their faces, that they were "gullible."

David's analysis of Ma's relationship with his own party gives us several different possibilities:

So, we are left with the probability that the man who over 70% of KMT members support, who is in the middle of a honeymoon period as KMT Chairman doesn’t have the will or the power to control his party. There are several possible reasons for this. Since I think it’s a combination of all of them, I’ll just list them here in no particular order:

• He just isn’t a strong leader. It’s always been a criticism of Ma that he’s all style, and no substance - and he hasn’t (yet) done much to refute that as KMT Chairman.
• ‘The ghost of chairmen past’. Ex-KMT Chairman (serial loser, and king of all things negative and bitter) Lien Chan is still a very influental figure in the KMT. He is not a fan of Ma (he even flouted party rules to show that he voted for Wang in the KMT election), and has always been keen on the ‘block everything’ approach to opposition politics.
• The KMT legislators are the only ones with any real power in the KMT. Of course, that will change dramatically if (when) Ma wins the 2008 presidential election. Until then Ma has limited effective power over them. Most legislators were supporters of Wang Jin-pyng for KMT Chairman, and so have a fairly distant relationship with Ma.
• The PFP effect. Until the PFP is safely dead and buried, Ma has to tread very carefully in his relationship both with the PFP, and with the raft of legislators who recently returned from the PFP back into the KMT’s welcoming arms. The PFP (and ex-PFP) legislators are generally much more militant than the KMT, and Ma seems to be doing everything he can to keep them happy.
• General divisions within the KMT. As with just about any political party anywhere in the world, the KMT is far from being one big happy family. The most obvious issues is the continual frosty relationship between Ma and Wang Jin-pyng, but there are no doubt all sorts of other little power struggles going on under the surface.

David's thinking is damned clear......go take a look for yourself.

[Taiwan] [Ma Ying-jeou] [KMT]

Nelson Report:"Still Four More Noes"

The most recent Nelson report, an insiders consulting report on political doings in Washington DC, included an appraisal by two mainland Chinese scholars on the Cross-Strait relations:

2005 was a quiet year for cross-Strait relations. The Taiwan issue, however, returned early this year when Chen Shui-bian scrapped Taiwan's National Unification Council and National Unification Guidelines, two symbolic elements of the island's lip-service to the one-China posture. He broke's his promise five years ago not to eliminate them. There are still, in the next two years, four more "hoes" -- no declaration of independence, no change of Taiwan's legal name to something other than the Republic of China, no rewriting of the constitution to make Taiwan a separate state, and no referendum on independence, that can drop. At stake is not only cross-Strait, but also cross-Pacific, relations.

Given the nature of these issues, the Bush-Hu summit is of strategic importance by itself, regardless of the formalities. A stable and prosperous Asia-Pacific for Bush's last two years in office will be a plus for the administration, no matter what else is up in the air.

Regrettably, the writers promulgated the propaganda theme that Chen Shui-bian is a madman who can anything at anytime -- when in fact there is precisely zero chance of any of these things happening. The recent changes in the Constitutional amendment process have put paid to any chance of name rectification or major Constitional revision. The reason he axed the National Unification Council is because it was the one way he could respond to China's repeated alterations of the status quo that would be acceptable on the island. It also manages to slip in the false claim that Chen broke his promise when in fact the promise was conditional on China's not breaking the status quo. The two scholars who authored that section of the report knew perfectly well when they wrote it that the claims they were making were sheer nonsense. Sadly, the Nelson report has chosen to publish political proganda packaged as "analysis."

This gets back to a larger issue that Peking Duck had commented on in the post I linked to below (Peking Duck on Chinese Diplomacy). Hu's skills are formidable, but it is important to note that China's diplomatic offensive is aided by a vast apparatus of scholars both native and foreign that apologize for it, and a foreign media that often uncritically repeats its claims. Recall, for example, the spate of panda-related articles that appeared at the end of March in major US publications as Taiwan neared its decision on the pandas at the beginning of April. Even mainland scholars who otherwise oppose the CCP regime are still anti-independence. Hu may be the conductor, but he has a whole orchestra that follows his baton.

UPDATE: I post this and head over to Asiapundit, and lo and behold, Fox News is helping CCTV, the Chinese state TV station...

Three partners are jointly announcing the launch of CCTV International's new website. Collaborating with Fox Cable network and CCTV.COM, CCTV International hopes joint efforts will strengthen its image among current and potential viewers. And also to increase viewers for TV programs on CCTV International -- through the www.cctv.com website...

...FOX Cable Networks offered help with the design of the new web-page. The company says this is only the beginning of cooperation between Fox and CCTV International. Fox says the new webpage provides a source for the world to get to know about China.

Pundy adds with some asperity, bless him:

Perhaps all of those who were damning Google for the censored China site will now damn FOX for assisting CCTV, which has much more aggressive censorship policies than any US search engine.

I hope so too, Chris

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Chen Shui-bian]

There Oughtta Be Law....

One funny thing about this otherwise forgettable BBC report on Lien Chan's visit to China this week is this comical remark that ends this, and is found in many other reports on the Cross-Strait situation:

Last year Beijing passed a law to allow the use of force if Taiwan formally declares independence. China has more than 700 missiles targeted at Taiwan.

The earnest manner in which this is reported masks the utter fatuousness of the underlying idea -- was China not allowed to use force before? What a ridiculous idea!

[Taiwan] [China]