Friday, May 23, 2008

Obama's letter to Ma

Future President Obama sent a congratulatory letter to Taiwan's new President:

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Dear President Ma:

Please accept my warmest congratulations on your inauguration as the new President of Taiwan. This is an important event in the political history of the island, one which can deepen the ties between the United States and Taiwan. A sound U.S.-Taiwan relationship will certainly be the goal of my Administration. Your inauguration also holds promise for more peaceful and stable relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, in no small measure because you have extended the hand of peace and cooperation to Beijing.

Your election is the latest step in consolidating a democracy that has advanced over the last two decades. The people of Taiwan showed great maturity by endorsing a track of peace, prosperity, and good relations with the United States.

I sincerely hope the People's Republic of China will respond to the beginning of your presidency in a constructive and forward-leaning way. It is important for Beijing to demonstrate to the people of Taiwan that the practical and non-confrontational approach that you have taken towards the Mainland can achieve positive results. I hope that there will be progress on issues including development of economic ties, expanding Taiwan's international space, and cross-Straits security, on which you have made proposals that deserve a good-faith response.

I support the "one China" policy of the United States, adherence to the three U.S.-PRC Joint Communiqués concerning Taiwan, and observance of the Taiwan Relations Act. On that foundation, I believe that the United States should strengthen channels of communication with officials of your government. We should continue to provide the arms necessary for Taiwan to deter possible aggression. And we should support your efforts to build closer ties with the Mainland that will lay the groundwork for a mores table and predictable relationship.

Your election on March 22nd and your inauguration on May 20th were good days for the people of Taiwan, for the forces of democracy around the world, and for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and western Pacific. I will do all that I can to support Taiwan's democracy in the years ahead.

With best wishes,

Barack Obama

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Quite a good letter -- especially the part where he instances the communiques and the TRA.

Contrasting Messages

First, from Reuters, is a very long piece on China's response to Ma's speech. The key point is right up front:

China vowed on Thursday to seize a chance for reconciliation with Taiwan and respect the desire of Taiwan's people to be their own masters, a sign it is in no hurry to bring the island it claims as its own back to the fold.

Chinese Minister of Taiwan Affairs Chen Yunlin, speaking two days after Ma Ying-jeou became Taiwan's new president, ending the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party's troubled eight-year rule, said both sides were making "positive" efforts to resume negotiations. There is no timetable for talks.

"We understand, trust and care about Taiwan compatriots and respect the desire of Taiwan compatriots to be masters of their own destiny," Chen said in a statement carried by the official Xinhua news agency.

It was China's first response to Ma's inauguration speech on Tuesday in which he offered to reopen dialogue but pledged to maintain Taipei's self-rule and separate international profile.

A most interesting set of comments. Note the acknowledgement that Taiwanese want to be their own masters.....which sounds nice, until you get the par-for-the-course follow up attack on independence. This is very much in the "one country, two systems" mode of discourse. Reuters helps Beijing a bit with this paragraph:

He extended an olive branch to pro-independence diehards in Taiwan, saying those who "misunderstood or had doubts" about China were welcome to visit.

Pro-independence "diehards." Surely a less loaded way to refer to supporters of democracy and independence for the island can be found. As always, in the international media, to advocate independence is to take a position that is irrational; whereas to want to suppress independence by plunging the region into war is never so labeled. I don't know how anyone can imagine that asking people to visit is "an olive branch," especially since the speech was very clear: Taiwan's independence and presumably, its democracy and identity, are to be suppressed. The KMT has already begun to roll back the DPP's attempt to remove markers of the former colonial regime's ideological positions. I'm curious to see what they do with the former Chiang Kai-shek Memorial.

The Reuters piece is long and most of it is good. Meanwhile Taiwan News had some very positive comments on the choice of Tsai Ing-wen as DPP Chair....

In her modest inaugural ceremony Tuesday morning, new DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, a former vice premier, ex-DPP lawmaker and graduate of the prestigious London School of Economics, immediately launched the task of transforming the demoralized and factionalized former ruling party into a modern party of the center - left that defends both progressive ideals and Taiwan's political autonomy.

The most important priority for the DPP is, as Tsai noted, to repair its previously close linkages with Taiwan's dynamic civic reform and social movement organizations, particularly in fields such as human rights and direct democracy, labor, environmental protection, social welfare, educational reform, culture and media reform, feminism and ethnic communities, including Hakka, indigenous peoples, mainlanders and new immigrants.

After all, the only possible check to the great possibility of attempts by the restored KMT camp to roll back Taiwan's progress in Taiwan-centric identity and social, cultural, political and legal reform and to launch a "neoliberal" project of completely freeing interaction with the PRC market can be the combination of the DPP with these "social progressive forces."

As noted by the new chairwoman, the DPP, and allied parties, must bear the defense of Taiwan - centric consciousness, the building of a "comprehensive Taiwan democracy" and the promotion of social progressive values if Taiwan is to overcome the twin threats of a rising China and globalization, threats whose consequences the KMT government is either blind or intent on encouraging.

The new leadership is evidently determined to get the DPP in motion as fast as possible, as reflected by decisions to initiate the formation of a party think tank to upgrade its policy discourse and formation capabilities so as to act as a "shadow government" and to accelerate preparation for the critical late 1999 city and county mayoral elections.

The whole piece is excellent; don't miss it. Tsai is a real leader; tough, smart, an able adminsitrator, and very professional. I'm looking forward to a return to the DPP's progressive roots, a more inclusive party that ceases to carry out witch hunts in its own ranks, and strong responses to the KMT's attempt to remake the island in terms of its own ideology, something the Taiwan News commented on today:

Many citizens may be unaware that almost immediately after taking power from the Democratic Progressive Party administration of former president Chen Shui-bian Tuesday, the term "Taiwan" was purged from the Chinese language header of the homepage of the "Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan)."

Moreover, one of the first actions by new KMT Defence Minister Chao Chao-min upon assuming his post was to similarly expunge the phrase "Taiwan" from the front page of the Ministry of National Defence - owned "Youth Daily News" and to change its banner lead slogan from "fighting for Taiwan's survival" to "fighting for the Republic of China and fighting for the security of the people on Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu."

In addition, the official stamp commemorating the inaugural of President Ma and Vice President Vincent Siew on May 20 also made no mention of Taiwan in Chinese.

These facts, along with other statements and symbolic actions taken by Ma and new KMT government officials, point to an ideological agenda of "detaiwanization" and stand in stark contrast to the new president's ringing declaration in his inaugural address Tuesday against "improper interference" in fields such as education by "all kinds of ideology."

Actually, the phrase "Taiwan" had only been added to the presidential website three years ago or five years after former president Chen took office, a sign that the decision was made after considerable thought and preparation.

However, the new occupants of the presidential office did not hesitate for even one day to remove virtually all mention of "Taiwan" from the website, from the description of the ROC down to the notice of copyright, with the trivial and even deceptive exception of the English language caption on the website`s header.

In other words, except for the English title, the term "Taiwan" is gone from the President's homepage.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

More on Wolfowitz to Chair US-Taiwan Business Council

In the latest Nelson Report Rupert Hammond-Chambers of the US-Taiwan business council explains the reasoning behind the choice of Paul Wolfowitz as Chairman of the organization:

TAIWAN...reaction, informally, in US-Taiwan circles to the surprise announcement of Paul Wolfowitz as chairman of the US-Taiwan Business Council has been, to be frank, incredulous.

To outside observers, the pick seemed to reflect a giant bet on the McCain campaign, as it's hard to see how Wolfowitz, as a major architect of the failure in Iraq, would be able to make arguments on Taiwan's behalf which would be received in the same way in a Democratic administration.

But the very able, respected president of the group, Rupert Hammond-Chambers, has very kindly explained the thinking behind Wolfowitz's appointment:

"Chris, I just want to reiterate why we at the Council don't view your concerns as relevant to our work. We don't view our chairman through the prism of US domestic politics.

Our Council has had a number of Chairmen since our inception in 1976. We have had Republicans as chairman during Democratic presidencies and Democrats as chairman during Republican administrations. We don't attempt to game out who we think the American people will choose to run the country when we deliberate over who we think would make a good chairman.

Our approach is to identify senior former government officials or business leaders who have an in-depth understanding of US-Taiwan-China relations. It's critical to our work that our leadership understand the pitfalls inherent in just speaking in front of an informed audience let alone attempting to act as a platform to conduct a complex economic relationship. Our entire success is predicated on our ability to chart a course that doesn't attempt to make decisions based on picking winners. We work with Republicans, Democrats, KMT and DPP. The Council is proud to call many in each community friend and have the highest regard for their views on US-Taiwan-China relations.

I have no idea who will win our election in November but I do know that Dr. Wolfowitz has an outstanding background in Asia and he will surely make a superb chairman for our group."

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Ma's Inaugural Speech: a look

I've decided to go over Ma's inaugural address. Most of these insights, including all of the translation stuff (make your own judgment about the good faith of the English translators), belong to others; I have only borrowed them....(Ma's speech in Chinese, English). It begins:
Taiwan's Renaissance
Heads of State of Our Diplomatic Allies, Distinguished Guests, Overseas Compatriots, My Fellow Taiwanese, and Dear Friends in front of a Television Set or Computer: Good Morning!

I. Historical Significance of the Second Turnover of Power

Earlier this year on March 22, through the presidential election of the Republic of China, the people changed the course of their future. Today we are here not to celebrate the victory of a particular party or individual, but to witness Taiwan pass a historic milestone.

Taiwan's democracy has been treading down a rocky road, but now it has finally won the chance to enter a smoother path. During that difficult time, political trust was low, political maneuvering was high, and economic security was gone. Support for Taiwan from abroad had suffered an all-time low. Fortunately, the growing pains of Taiwan's democracy did not last long compared to those of other young democracies. Through these growing pains, Taiwan's democracy matured as one can see by the clear choice the people made at this critical moment. The people have chosen clean politics, an open economy, ethnic harmony, and peaceful cross-strait relations to open their arms to the future.

After opening by saying the election result isn't about one party, Ma immediately moves to hack on the DPP. The opening lines are basically a campaign speech -- the points Ma makes were all talking points during the election, and the rankest of rank hypocrisy. The KMT is by far the dirtier of the two parties ("Clean politics"); and it created the system of ethnic divide-n-rule politics ("ethnic harmony"). Cross strait relations have been entirely peaceful under Chen (the only cross strait fighting took place in the Chiang era), even if China doesn't like him, and Taiwan's economy is one of the most open in the world. Ma is of course referring to DPP restrictions on economic exchanges with China, restrictions that are routine for countries bordering China.

Note that also there is no positive nod to the previous administration for its many accomplishments. This is completely graceless moment for both parties -- the DPP stayed away from the inaugural. Neither party looks very big-hearted here -- but it must have been a bitter pill to swallow for the Greens, to see Ma, who carved out a career fighting Taiwan's democratization, heading up the very democracy whose existence he put so much effort into suppressing. Cool note: a reference to computers and online viewing right there in the opening remarks! Onward...

Above all, the people have rediscovered Taiwan's traditional core values of benevolence, righteousness, diligence, honesty, generosity and industriousness. This remarkable experience has let Taiwan become "a beacon of democracy to Asia and the world." We, the people of Taiwan, should be proud of ourselves. The Republic of China is now a democracy respected by the international community.

Yet we are still not content. We must better Taiwan's democracy, enrich its substance, and make it more perfect. To accomplish this, we can rely on the Constitution to protect human rights, uphold law and order, make justice independent and impartial, and breathe new life into civil society. Taiwan's democracy should not be marred by illegal eavesdropping, arbitrary justice, and political interference in the media or electoral institutions. All of us share this vision for the next phase of political reform.

The relentless flow of hypocrisy continues -- political interference in electoral institutions? Last time I checked, it was the KMT controlled legislature that was holding up the budget to attempt to gain control of the Central Election Commission (CEC). As for Ma's remarks on civil society....

On the day of Taiwan's presidential election, hundreds of millions of ethnic Chinese worldwide watched the ballot count on TV and the Internet. Taiwan is the sole ethnic Chinese society to complete a second democratic turnover of power. Ethnic Chinese communities around the world have laid their hopes on this crucial political experiment. By succeeding, we can make unparalleled contributions to the democratic development of all ethnic Chinese communities. This responsibility is ours to fulfill.

Some points on the language here. Ma uses "zhonghwa minzu" and related terms in this speech. The DPP did not use those terms -- as part of its goal of building a real civil society, a real nation, the DPP did not use ethnic terminology to refer to status of Taiwanese -- it used "guomin" (= citizens). Ma's construction of Taiwan as a polity peopled by ethnic Chinese society is a massive step backwards for the construction of a nation-state with a civil society here that is independent of ethnicity. Perhaps another hidden meaning of the constant referencing of Singapore becomes clear -- Singapore is a multi-ethnic society, predominately Chinese, in which the Chinese basically run the show. There's even a nifty little analogue between the Taiwanese and their admixture of aboriginal physical and cultural traits, and the Peranakan of Singapore.

Further down the English term "subethnic groups" is used. That's outrageous. The reference to Taiwan as an "ethnic Chinese" society is a clear denigration of the aborigines and of those who see themselves as "Taiwanese" rather than "Chinese." It also places them in subordinate position relative to the dominant Han. There's more of this...
II. Mission of the New Era

The new administration's most urgent task is to lead Taiwan through the daunting challenges from globalization. The world economy is changing profoundly, and newly emerging countries are arising rapidly. We must upgrade Taiwan's international competitiveness and recover lost opportunities. The uncertainty of the current global economy poses as the main challenge to the revitalization of Taiwan's economy. Yet, we firmly believe that, with right policies and steadfast determination, our goals are within our grasp.

Islands like Taiwan flourish in an open economy and wither in a closed one. This has been true throughout history. Therefore, we must open up and deregulate the economy to unleash the vitality of the private sector. This will strengthen Taiwan's comparative advantages. Taiwan's enterprises should be encouraged to establish themselves at home, network throughout the Asia-Pacific region, and position themselves globally. Taiwan's labor force must learn to adapt to rapid technological changes and industrial restructuring. Our youth must develop character, a sense of civic duty, global perspectives and lifelong learning capabilities. All forms of political interference in education must be eradicated. In this era of globalization, the government must satisfy the basic needs of the underprivileged and create opportunities for them to develop. While pursuing growth, we must seek environmental sustainability for Taiwan and the rest of the world.
Some translation issues -- "this has been true throughout history" in Chinese actually says it is an "iron law of history."

Another KMT hot-button issue was the DPP's reforms of the colonialist educational system implemented by the KMT -- this was glossed as "political interference in education" in the KMT lexicon. In other words, this tastes like another hack on the DPP...

The new administration must also restore political ethics to regain the people's trust in the government. We will endeavor to create an environment that is humane, rational and pluralistic one that fosters political reconciliation and co-existence. We will promote harmony among sub-ethnic groups and between the old and new immigrants, encourage healthy competition in politics, and respect the media's monitoring of the government and freedom of the press.

"Sub-ethnic groups." Scratch Ma, and you find a Han chauvinist of the old school? The scary part is the hint here that the Presidency might well unleash Ma Ying-jeou son of crazed ROC nationalist Ma Ho-ling, not Ma Ying-jeou, pragmatist and globalist. Word has it this speech is in large part the work of Su Chi, who is now a key player in the new administration.

The new administration will push for clean politics and set strict standards for the integrity and efficiency of officials. It also will provide a code for the interaction between the public and private sectors to prevent money politics. I hope every civil servant will keep in mind: "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." The KMT will honor its sincere commitment to accountability in governance. The new government will be for all the people, remain non-partisan and uphold administrative neutrality. The government will not stand in the way of social progress, but rather serve as the engine that drives it.

Historical note: As I recall, Lord Acton's famous dictum was actually formulated as an argument for atheism against papal infallibility, since an absolutely powerful pope would be absolutely corrupt. Perhaps Ma is warning the civil service -- or perhaps he is announcing his new policy (Go for it! Be corrupt!). It is hard to imagine how the KMT will foster clean politics....

As President of the Republic of China, my most solemn duty is to safeguard the Constitution. In a young democracy, respecting the Constitution is more important than amending it. My top priority is to affirm the authority of the Constitution and show the value of abiding by it. Serving by example, I will follow the letter and the spirit of the Constitution, especially the separation of powers. We must ensure that the government is based on the rule of law. The Executive Yuan must answer to the Legislative Yuan. The Judiciary must guarantee the rule of law and protect human rights. The Examination Yuan must make the civil service sound. The Control Yuan must redress mistakes by the government and censure malfeasance by civil servants. All told, we must take this opportunity to re-establish a robust constitutional tradition.

No mention, of course, that it was the KMT controlled legislature that impaired the function of the Yuans -- by holding up bills in the Legislative Yuan, killing budgets, and blocking DPP appointments. The Control Yuan, responsible for the auditing function, had a backlog of 20,000 cases last time I checked, because the KMT blocked the DPP Control Yuan appointments.

Ma here is also taking a hack at the DPP -- "respecting the Consitution is more important than amending it." The DPP's goal was Constitutional reform. Here Ma is signaling that there will be none in his tenure. But irrespective of one's politics, the ROC constitution was never meant to be more than the candy coating over a one-party state. It needs plenty of change.

Taiwan has to be a respectable member of the global village. Dignity, autonomy, pragmatism and flexibility should be Taiwan's guiding principles when developing foreign relations. As a world citizen, the Republic of China will accept its responsibilities in promoting free trade, nonproliferation, anti-global warming measures, counter-terrorism, humanitarian aid, and other global commons. Taiwan must play a greater role in regional cooperation. By strengthening economic relations with its major trading partners, Taiwan can better integrate itself in East Asia and contribute more to the region's peace and prosperity.

Here Ma uses all the right words the US and international financial interests want to hear. Can he deliver?

We will strengthen bilateral relations with the United States, our foremost security ally and trading partner. Taiwan will continue to cherish its diplomatic allies and honor its commitments to them. We will expand cooperation with like-minded countries. On top of that, we will rationalize our defense budget and acquire necessary defensive weaponry to form a solid national defense force. At the same time, we are committed to cross-strait peace and regional stability. The Republic of China must restore its reputation in the international community as a peace-maker.

More sweets for the US. And another sly hack at the DPP -- "restoring" the reputation the ROC had as a peacemaker -- because, by inference, it was all troublemaker under Chen. As if the ROC was ever viewed by anyone as a "peacemaker." Further -- it is China that is the threat. And sure enough, there's no mention of that -- PRC missiles and military, all gone. No mention of course that it was the KMT-controlled legislature that hung up the purchase of "necessary weaponry" for years during the Chen Administration...

I sincerely hope that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can seize this historic opportunity to achieve peace and co-prosperity. Under the principle of "no unification, no independence and no use of force," as Taiwan's mainstream public opinion holds it, and under the framework of the ROC Constitution, we will maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In 1992, the two sides reached a consensus on "one China, respective interpretations." Many rounds of negotiation were then completed, spurring the development of cross-strait relations. I want to reiterate that, based on the "1992 Consensus," negotiations should resume at the earliest time possible. As proposed in the Boao Forum on April 12 of this year, let's "face reality, pioneer a new future, shelve controversies and pursue a win-win solution." This will allow us to strike a balance as each pursues its own interests. The normalization of economic and cultural relations is the first step to a win-win solution. Accordingly, we are ready to resume consultations. It is our expectation that, with the start of direct charter flights on weekends and the arrival of mainland tourists in early July this year, we will launch a new era of cross-strait relations.

The 1992 Consensus was a fiction, but if both sides agree to use it as a framework, then it exists.

We will also enter consultations with mainland China over Taiwan's international space and a possible cross-strait peace accord. Taiwan doesn't just want security and prosperity. It wants dignity. Only when Taiwan is no longer being isolated in the international arena can cross-strait relations move forward with confidence. We have taken note that Mr. Hu Jintao has recently spoken on cross-strait relations three times: first, in a conversation of March 26 with US President George W. Bush on the "1992 Consensus"; second, in his proposed "four continuations" on April 12 at the Boao Forum; and third, on April 29 when he called for "building mutual trust, shelving controversies, finding commonalities despite differences, and creating together a win-win solution" across the Taiwan Strait. His views are very much in line with our own. Here I would like to call upon the two sides to pursue reconciliation and truce in both cross-strait and international arenas. We should help and respect each other in international organizations and activities. In light of our common Chinese heritage, people on both sides should do their utmost to jointly contribute to the international community without engaging in vicious competition and the waste of resources. I firmly believe that Taiwan and mainland China are open minded enough to find a way to attain peace and co-prosperity.

Fine points: Hu of China is "Mr. Hu" but Bush of the US is "President Bush." Heh. Then there is "the common Chinese heritage" -- unless you're an aborigine, I suppose. Ma thinks of himself as the President of a "Chinese" polity and not as the head of a multiethnic nation-state where everyone is a citizen. For Ma and his crowd, "ethnic harmony" appears to mean subordination of all ethnic groups to Han supremacy. The State Department congratulated Ma thusly:

We congratulate Ma Ying-jeou on his inauguration. We look forward to working with Taiwan’s new leaders and maintaining the vibrancy of our economic and people-to-people relationship.

We welcome initiatives to reduce tension in the Taiwan Strait. As President Bush said after the March vote, “the election provides a fresh opportunity for both sides to reach out and engage one another in peacefully resolving their differences.”

Two other translation points to make: the English text says "our common Chinese heritage" but the Chinese is explicit -- the people on the two sides of the Strait both belong to the Chinese race" (兩岸人民同屬中華民族).The second translation issue is even more interesting. Entirely dropped from the English text is the very next sentence, which says 中華民族智慧之高 which translates "the great intelligence/wisdom" of the Chinese race." As I noted, Ma's thinking treads the well-worn path of Han chauvinism in which other ethnicities are arranged in order below the dominant and wisely benevolent Han. The DPP, by contrast, offered "proto-state to state" and "partnership" with all the original peoples. As you read Ma's comments on the great Chinese people, recall the prominence of aborigines and aboriginal themes in Ma's election adverts, like this one in which everyone in the top row with Ma and Siew is an aborigine.


Yet the original people of the island have simply vanished from Ma's speech.... at this moment a pro-KMT aboriginal legislator stormed out of the speech and denounced this phraseology, pointing out that the aborigines in Taiwan have been here longer than the formulaic 5,000 years of Chinese civilization.

And speaking of crucial non-mentions, what key nation is conspicuous by its absence: Japan. It's par for the course for Real Chinese © to denigrate Japan -- but Ma had been trying to mend fences with Japan, where he had been viewed with suspicion. One important opportunity, lost....

In resolving cross-strait issues, what matters is not sovereignty but core values and way of life. We care about the welfare of the 1.3 billion people of mainland China, and hope that mainland China will continue to move toward freedom, democracy and prosperity for all the people. This would pave the way for the long-term peaceful development of cross-strait relations.

"...what matters is not soveriegnty..." Sovereignty, according to Ma, is not important. With that line he throws away two decades of policy work by Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian. Further, during his campaign, Ma promised to safeguard the sovereignty of Taiwan and the right of the people to choose -- but hey, now that he's in power, all that disappears. It's "not important." His own words. As Taiwan News observed:

For example, one media reported that Ma mentioned Taiwan 50 times and the Republic of China only nine times, but in none of these nearly 60 references did the new head of state commissioned by our 23 million people acknowledge that either Taiwan or the ROC was "a sovereign and independent country," which he reaffirmed repeatedly during his campaign to ease concerns that his new government would "sell out Taiwan."

In addition, Ma made absolutely no mention of the principle, endorsed by himself and his party in media advertisements March 15, that "Taiwan's future must be decided by the Taiwan people alone."

This omission is even more disturbing in light of his claim that "the decisive factor in the resolution of the cross-strait issue is not the dispute over sovereignty but the way of life and core values."

On the contrary, the question of sovereignty is not a dispute over ownership of a piece of land but the right of a people organized in a state to make the fundamental decisions on their national future, including whether they wish to end their independent existence and affiliate with another state.

The fundamental issue between democratic Taiwan and the authoritarian PRC is precisely over the right of the Taiwan people to make their own decision or, in other words, over Beijing's abject refusal to acknowledge the "people's sovereignty" of the 23 million Taiwan people.

And if we don't have sovereignty, we don't really have democracy, do we? As Hong Kong is sadly finding out.... So what "core values" is Ma referring to? Dollars to donuts, it's that shared Han supremacy...or, as Feiren pointed out in the comments, the Confucian values he indexed as Taiwan having rediscovered.

The damage from the recent earthquake in Sichuan was shocking. All Taiwanese have expressed deep concern and offered immediate emergency assistance. We offer our deepest condolences to the earthquake victims and pay homage to the rescue workers. May the reconstruction of the affected area be completed at the earliest time possible!

III. Taiwan's Legacy and Vision

Upon being sworn in, I had an epiphany about the significance of accepting responsibility for the 23 million people of Taiwan. Although I have never felt so honored in my life, this is the heaviest responsibility that I have ever shouldered. Taiwan is not my birthplace, but it is where I was raised and the resting place of my family. I am forever grateful to society for accepting and nurturing this post-war immigrant. I will protect Taiwan with all my heart and resolutely move forward. I'll do my very best!

For over four centuries, this island of ours has welcomed waves of immigrants, nurturing and sheltering us all. It has provided us, our children and grandchildren, and the generations to come a safe haven. With its lofty mountains and vast oceans, Taiwan has invigorated us in mind and spirit. The cultural legacies we inherited over time not only survive on this land, but flourish and evolve, creating a pluralistic and vigorous human landscape.

The Republic of China was reborn on Taiwan. During my presidency, we will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China. This democratic republic, the very first in Asia, spent a short 38 years on the Chinese mainland, but has spent nearly 60 years in Taiwan. During these last six decades, the destinies of the Republic of China and Taiwan have been closely intertwined. Together, the two have experienced times good and bad. On the jagged path toward democracy, the ROC has made great strides. Dr. Sun Yat-sen's dream for a constitutional democracy was not realized on the Chinese mainland, but today it has taken root, blossomed and borne fruit in Taiwan.

Ma has talked many times throughout this speech about democracy. His own opposition to it is a matter of public record, but he does not refer to his past here, nor does he thank the opposition he defeated for driving democratization here in Taiwan. Instead Ma links the idea of democracy back to Sun Yat-sen, as if the democracy movement here from the 1950s on never existed. Graceless.

On the other hand, you can read the reference to "for over four centuries" as a reference to Taiwan's 400 years of history, a common phrase in pro-Taiwan thinking. So Ma may be attempting to take some sort of conciliatory position here.

Finally, note that Ma talks of the ROC and Taiwan as two distinct but intertwined things. He reinforces that later by added Kinmen and Matsu to the homeland.

I am confident about Taiwan's future. Over the years, I have traveled to every corner of the island and talked with people from all walks of life. What impressed me most was that the traditional core values of benevolence, righteousness, diligence, honesty, generosity and industriousness could be seen everywhere in the words and deeds of the Taiwanese people regardless of their location and age. These values have long been ingrained in their character. This is the wellspring of our progress, also lauded as the "Taiwan Spirit."

One can see that Taiwan is blessed with an excellent geographic location, precious cultural assets, a maturing democracy, innovative entrepreneurship, a pluralistic society, active civic groups, patriotic overseas compatriots, and new immigrants from all over the world. We should couple the "Taiwan Spirit" with our comparative advantages and the principle of "putting Taiwan first for the benefit of the people." This way we can transform our homeland Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu the envy of the world.

Ma's definition of the homeland includes "Kinmen and Matsu." Here also the English text omits Ma's direct quote of the words the DPP used in the Feb 28, 2004 "Hands across Taiwan" event. Ma quotes the words from the key song, “Hand Holding hand, Heart United with Heart 心連心、手牽手” and then concludes, “let us all strive together 大家一起來奮鬥. Ma apparently repeated these words in Taiwanese too.

To revive Taiwan requires the efforts of both the government and the people. We need the expertise of the private sector, cooperation among all political parties, and participation by all the people. My dear compatriots, from this moment on, we must roll up our sleeves to build up our homeland. Together, we can lay a solid foundation of peace and prosperity for our children, grandchildren and the generations to come. Let's work hand in hand for our future!

My dear compatriots, please join me: Long live Taiwan's democracy! Long live the Republic of China! Thank you!

Once again, the reference to "revival" -- a core KMT talking point in the election. The reaction was, according to several news reports, wait-and-see. Jonathan Adams had a nifty piece in the Christian Science Monitor with some reactions, including crystal ball gazing on the subject of China:

On such issues, the extent of China's goodwill remains unclear. "The ball is in Beijing's court," says Lo Chih-cheng, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei. "Economic links can be resolved on the basis of the '92 consensus, but when it comes to issues of international space and a peace accord, I'm not sure if that will be good enough for Beijing."

What will Beijing do?

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

President Ma is Sworn in

WSJ transposes a couple of consonants in the print edition of Shelly Rigger's commentary on the new President.

Stuff piling on thick and fast today. CNN has a short piece ahead of Ma's swearing-in. Taiwan News makes some excellent points on the KMT's abuse of the voters to get Ma elected president. Rigger has a piece that is 100% CW in the Wall Street Journal (the print edition is misspelled, pic above), from the claim that independence is the desire of just a small but noisy minority, to the soft-pedaling of the threats China presents to Taiwan. Like most commentators, Rigger calls for China to be more flexible in the wake of the great opportunity that Ma presents. Although Chen presented exactly the same opportunity..... Ma was interviewed in Forbes the other day too. Finally, President Ma's Inaugural address is on tap. I'll be going over it tomorrow -- parts of it contain sly hacks on the DPP -- and note that "our homeland" is "Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu, and Taiwan." Some nice language about the election being an example to all Chinese, some good paeans to democracy. Heard the DPP boycotted the festivities too. That's ridiculous and childish.

Meanwhile the WHO rejected Taiwan's bid for observer status. Ma now has a whole year to strategize with Beijing about how to handle the issue.

Zooming up to Nantou to see the Daily Bubble Tea

Todd waits for me to finish a shot as Cathy looks for bugs to photo.

Another gorgeous central Taiwan day dawned on Sunday, so my friend Drew and I motored up to Nantou to see Todd of The Daily Bubble Tea, a popular local expat blog, and his girlfriend fiance Catherine. I'm happy to announce that they are engaged to be married.

Leaving Taichung, I spotted this Graveyard of the Machines.

Crops ripening in the morning sun...

Not all betel nut people are hot chicks.

Nantou always presents stirring scenes of steep mountains and graveled riverbeds (composite of three pictures)

Todd and Cathy live in Chunghsinghsintsun, the town built as the "provincial" administrative capital and now full of retired government workers living in what was once plush housing on tree-lined streets.

On Sundays this park is crowded with families and children. Here vendors are set up with all sorts of balls and balloons for the incoming horde.

We decided to go motoring through the mountains, taking Nantou 17 from highway 14 over a low ridge, and then down the other side. Unfortunately I turned the wrong way and we ended up taking Nantou 22 back to Nantou town. But the ride was great....

Once you gained a little altitude, the views were excellent.

Here Todd gets ready to take a shot.

Nantou 17 was lined with graveyards along most of the opening portion of its length.

Here I panned one of the them, as Drew stops to inspect the tombs.

A burner.

We found this amazing tomb at a bend in the road. Tigers, lions, elephants, zebras, and pandas stand guard over it.

Here's a close up of one of the lions.

Another interesting tomb was this one. Connected to the famous Lin families of both Banchiao and Changhua? Or just a coincidence of names?

The mountains loom in the distance, range piled on range.

It's no exaggeration to describe the area as Land of Betel Nut. The ridges were covered with betel nut palms.

Cathy turned out to be a woman after my own heart, who loves to photograph bugs. Here she and Todd draw a bead...

...on this lovely bug.

It wouldn't be too bad having this view to contemplate for all eternity.

Here's a panorama from that spot.

A temple straddles the road.

Some of the countryside.

After the hard going, we retired to a local Hakka place for draft Tiger beer and some good fried food. Don't they make a cute couple? UPDATE: I meant Todd and Cathy, not the beer and food, you wiseasses.

Drew tells a story.

As we returned to Taichung, I grabbed this shot of the new highway running through the valley, inching toward completion in the distance...

Drew and I took Rte. 136 back to Taiping, one of my favorite local roads (last blogged on here). Plenty of good mountain scenery, little traffic, and lots of curves. The only thing that could possibly disturb you is a wasp flying into your helmet and stinging you by the ear as you cruised in a zone of utter contentment, making you slam on the brakes and then wreck with a loud shout and innumerable bruises. Fortunately nothing like that happened to me.

A Day of New Beginnings....

It's truly a day of new beginnings. Later today new President Ma is sworn in and will speak. What will the future bring? To get a sense of how far we've come, enjoy these slides from a US soldier stationed here in 1969-71.

Also today pro-independence groups will rally. Details from a friend:

There's going to be a rally on May 20th, at 2:00pm in Daan park in support of safeguarding Taiwan's sovereignty. The rally is mainly organized by the Taiwan Association of University Professors along with several other pro-Taiwan independence groups. The rally will start at the Daan Park music stage at 2:00pm. For the first hour there will be some speakers, among them Su Beng. Then at 3:00pm people will walk to the Democracy Hall/CKS Memorial Hall. Of course, I will be "armed" with my camcorder to capture things.

The US-Taiwan business council announces that neocon Paul Wolfowitz will be the new Chair of the Council:

Paul Wolfowitz to Succeed William Brock as Chairman of the US-Taiwan Business Council

The US-Taiwan Business Council is pleased to announce that Dr. Paul D. Wolfowitz has accepted the post of Chairman of the Board of the US-Taiwan Business Council.

It is with great pleasure that we welcome Dr. Wolfowitz to the Council. His extensive experience with policy, economic, and defense matters - spanning the breadth of the US-Taiwan relationship - makes him a perfect choice for the position. Dr. Wolfowitz has a history of public service and international scholarship, he has long been an articulate supporter of Taiwan’s vibrant democracy, and he is well versed in the complexities of the political, trade, and business relationship between the United States and Taiwan.

“I have seen first hand the important role that the US-Taiwan Business Council plays in bilateral relations, and I am honored to join its distinguished Board as Chairman” Wolfowitz said. “As we look towards an exciting future, with significant changes underfoot both in Taiwan and in the U.S., I am excited about this opportunity to work with the Council’s Board and staff on important initiatives, and hope to contribute to the Council’s ongoing success.”

Paul Wolfowitz is currently a Visiting Scholar in Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington, D.C. He most recently served as President of the World Bank and as Deputy Secretary of Defense. Prior to the Pentagon assignment, he was Dean and Professor of International Relations at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Dr. Wolfowitz has also served as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and as Director of Policy Planning at the Department of State. He worked as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Regional Programs at the Department of Defense and as Special Assistant to the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks in the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. Dr. Wolfowitz received a bachelor's degree in mathematics from Cornell University, and a doctorate in political science from the University of Chicago.

Previous US-Taiwan Business Council Chairmen include William E. Brock, William S. Cohen, Frank C. Carlucci, William P. Clark, Dan Tellep, Caspar Weinberger, and David Kennedy.

Wolfowitz is serving without pay, I heard. A friend pointed out that with the rise of China, it is difficult to find Washington players willing to serve in positions that might conflict with their China interests. Wolfowitz has plenty of East Asia experience, and is former President of the World Bank. He is also one of the major movers of our ongoing defeat in Iraq.

On the blogs, my friend Erik Lundh will fire up his new blog on Taiwan economic matters today. And I'm moving to a Wordpress blog on my own domain to take advantage of Wordpress' greater functionality. Hopefully that move will be completed this week; still want to tinker with the look of it. My friend Fili was the engineer behind the move; many thanks to him. Comments are back on here at The View.

But in a world of constant change, one thing remains the same: the NY Times won't get Taiwan right. The latest error, in an article on the Sichuan quake, annexes our fair island to China....

"The American embassy in Beijing and the American consulates in Hong Kong and across mainland China began flying the American flag at half-mast on Monday morning for three days of mourning as well, out of respect for China's loss. The American Institute in Taiwan, which represents United States interests on the self-governing island, does not fly a flag because the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan and adheres to the legal principle that Taiwan and the mainland form one China."

Actually, the quietly official US position is that Taiwan's status is undetermined and has been since the signing of the San Francisco Peace Treaty in 1951. The last time that issue came up diplomatically was in 2007 when Chen Shui-bian sent a letter to the UN demanding entry as Taiwan in, and Sec-Gen Ban stated that Taiwan is part of China, at which point the US blew the whistle and said its position is that Taiwan's status is undetermined (story on my blog). I heard also that the US flag does fly above AIT on holidays, but that is a minor point.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Japan Focus on Indonesia, China, Japan, and LNG markets

Japan Focus has a couple of good articles this week. For WWII buffs, Herbert Bix has a great article on Hirohito's role in WWII. But of interest for Taiwan is an article on natural gas exports from Indonesia to Japan and China. The article focuses on Japan's complex relations with Indonesia in acquiring resources and secondarily, on its weakening position with respect to resource acquisition vis-a-vis China...

As Japanese rules permit individual utilities and natural gas distribution firms to sign LNG supply contracts with overseas suppliers, these firms exert a strong influence on the LNG market. However, these LNG procuring companies face increasing competition for resources. Whilst in 1996 Japan imported 62% of available world supplies, that proportion had fallen to 41% in 2005 and is under continuing assault as other countries respond to the attractiveness of LNG. [6] In particular, China’s imports of LNG, which began in 2006, are expected to increase rapidly. Although China has two LNG receiving terminals at present, it has plans to build as many as seven LNG terminals in six provinces and municipalities. This scenario poses such a strategic security and economic risk that Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry cautioned in May 2006 that: “Japan's bargaining power (in the international gas market) may be weakened.” [7] Facing the imperative to secure as much LNG as possible for the longest term possible, the JIEPA negotiations opened in 2005.

...and....

Like almost all major Indonesian corporations, Sinar Mas is Chinese-Indonesian owned and has substantial holdings in mainland China. Particularly since a 1974 change in the foreign investment law required joint ventures, it has usually been the policy of Japanese investors to partner with local ethnic Chinese businesses in Indonesia. It has been long pondered whether the dominance of the Chinese Diaspora in most Southeast Asian economies would eventually give China an advantage over Japan in terms of economic influence in the region. The deal for the Tangguh gas seems to indicate that this might be becoming a reality.

It seems intuitively obvious that Taiwan's position with respect to resource acquisition and Chinese competition is weaker than Japan's. Time to heavily invest in wind and other renewables....

Taiwanese arrested in Hong Kong Phone Scam

The other day my wife got a call from a woman claiming to be from Taishin Bank, who said someone, Mrs. X, was trying to clear out the $900,000 we have there. Except we don't have an account there.... The woman spoke in mandarin with a Taiwan accent, but after a few minutes as my wife drew her out, interested to see how the scammer was going to get her to an ATM, her mandarin quickly became more like mainland style. After they switched my wife to "the manager" my wife could hear others in the background of what was obviously a single large room, reading from the same script in mainland-accented Chinese, telling others that Mrs. X was cleaning out their $900K at Taishin Bank...

The Straits Times reports on the successful prosecution of a Taiwanese in connection with the kidnap scams that have become in vogue in Asia over the last few years. In these a caller pretending to be a kidnapper of your child demands that money be transferred immediately to an account. In the background you can hear the tearful voice of your child. We've gotten kidnapping scam calls several times, with "my son" in the background calling for me in Chinese, a language he doesn't speak. The Straits Times reports:

These scams involve callers pretending to have kidnapped a victim's relative and demanding a money transfer. They are rampant worldwide.

Between last August and May 9 this year, 15 people here have been conned of more than $150,000 with these scams. They lost between $500 and $49,000 each.

When the scams first surfaced last August, 20 cases were reported. This grew to 186 in last month alone.

Taiwanese Lee Chin Lung, 36, was not one of the masterminds, but was used as a conduit, transferring money to beneficiaries in China.

According to Deputy Public Prosecutor Hon Yi, Lee had responded to a job advertisement in Taiwan and was flown here on Dec 16 by his 'Big Boss'. Here, he met another man, known to him only as Ah Kai, who told him they were in the soccer betting business.

Ah Kai said he needed bank accounts into which punters who had sustained losses could make payments.

He told Lee to look for Chinese nationals with bank accounts here and to withdraw and deliver the money to him.

Lee found three willing parties. In a span of about three weeks, a total of $77,500 was deposited into their accounts. Lee then withdrew and remitted the money to various beneficiaries in China.

Details of the scam came out in court last Wednesday, when Lee pleaded guilty and was jailed for 18 months.
So many in Taiwan have been hurt by these scams, which are especially common when schools open after summer vacation, since kids go off to new schools that their parents are not familiar with. It is a public disgrace that the government has not been more aggressive in warning the public about them. A sustained campaign would have little cost but would return immense benefits to the public.

Retrospectives Begin....Reuters on Chen's Legacy

Apologies: I'm working on migrating the blog and comments may be off from time to time. If you can't post, return later.

+++++++++++

Ralph Jennings at Reuters has put together a retrospective on the Chen Shui-bian presidency that focuses on China policy...

His wife may have been indicted for graft and his anti-China rage upset major ally the United States, but departing President Chen Shui-bian charted Taiwan's future by firming up its self-identity and cooling down Beijing.

Anti-China rage? It's indicative that in the international media, Chen is always depicted as having some kind of irrational feeling about China, even though China threatens Taiwan in many different ways, whereas China's desire to annex Taiwan is almost never depicted as irrational. What's irrational about strongly objecting to being annexed? Nevertheless, the main point, that Chen moved the discussion on Taiwan's relationship to China, is an important observation...

THE FORMULA on who owns Taiwan is nifty in a very subtle way:

China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since 1949, when Mao Zedong's Communists won the Chinese civil war and Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists (KMT) fled to the island. Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its rule, by force if necessary.

"....since 1949." Yep. But not at all before WWII: China's lust for Taiwan is a postwar phenomenon. This formulation is excellent, the best yet. Unfortunately the next paragraph is nowhere near as good:

Chen's tough line on China, though it stalemated trade ties that might have pulled up Taiwan's sagging economy and chilled support from Washington, forced Beijing to lighten up its rhetoric against the self-ruled island that it sees as its own.

Just the opposite: it was Chen who wanted to negotiate with China and China that threw that back in his face. Chen was willing to talk without preconditions, but China insisted on its condition that Taiwan was the property of China. It was China's obdurate insistence on non-negotiations with Chen that has driven many of Chen's actions over the last eight years. Jennings goes on to say:

Chen's provocative China stance, including talk of seeking formal independence and efforts to join the United Nations, also raised hackles from once staunch ally the United States.

Washington is legally obligated to help Taiwan in a war against Beijing but wants good relations with China, as well.

Damage to U.S. ties will be repaired only if Ma breaks new ground with China without capitulating to Beijing's political demands, political experts in the United States and Taiwan say.


The Bush Administration's disapproval of Chen stems from a number of different factors, but outstanding among them is its obsessive pursuit of defeat in Iraq that has undercut its strength in so many ways. "Efforts to join the UN" have been ongoing since the 1990s, long before Chen -- the difference was Chen's use of the name "Taiwan." The discussion of local politics is also interesting....

Chen's also leaves behind a large challenge for his 22-year-old Democratic Progressive Party, whose populist image has been tarnished over the last eight years as Chen dumped six premiers over scandals and infighting.

Chen disappointed many amid allegations of misuse of government funds that resulted in indictments against his wife and aides. Chen himself could faces similar charges when he loses his presidential immunity after leaving office.

Media reports tend to focus on the scandal issue, since that is obvious and juicy. Yet Chen's legacy for Taiwan's democratic development was also mixed and deserves more publicity at the international level. I'll be curious to read the scholarly assessments in 5 or 10 years.... Finally Jennings claims:
Chen, 57, rose to prominence as a former legislator and Taipei ex-mayor who previously spent eight months in jail for libelling a KMT politician. He has hinted he will travel once out of office and then set up and a public service foundation, said Hsiao Bi-khim, his party's international affairs director.
Did Chen rise to prominence as a legislator? Or does his rise to prominence date from his work as a defense lawyer for the Kaohsiung 8?

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Tsai Ing-wen new DPP Chair

Things to pass on....

...Tsai Ing-wen has won the DPP Chairmanship with 57% of the vote. I'm not sure about the numbers yet, sources differ.

...there will be a rally on May 20th, at 2:00pm in Daan park in support of safeguarding Taiwan's sovereignty. The rally is mainly organized by the Taiwan Association of University Professors along with several other pro-Taiwan independence groups. The rally will start at the Daan Park music stage at 2:00pm. For the first hour there will be some speakers, among them Su Beng. Then at 3:00pm people will walk to the Democracy Hall/CKS Memorial Hall.

US Nuke Deployments to Taiwan

The FAS blog has a great piece on US nuclear weapons deployments to Taiwan and elsewhere in Asia in the '50s, '60s and '70s....

Nuclear weapons also were deployed to Taiwan. As mentioned above, the Matador cruise missile was already present on the island when the Taiwan Strait crisis erupted. The nuclear bombs arrived in January 1960 and stayed for a decade and a half until July 1974. Together with nuclear bombs for tactical fighter wings deployed at Clark Air Base in the Philippines, Kusan Air Base in South Korea and Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, the nuclear bombs in Taiwan probably were intended for use against targets in China and North Korea.

The deployment to Taiwan was not without its problems: After a series of inspections of nuclear weapons facilities in the Far East, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1970 sharply criticized the U.S. policy that guided the forward deployment as well as the agreements and understandings with the host country about the deployment, use, or withdrawal of these weapons. “One example: …the ranking United States Army officer in [Taiwan] testified he was not aware whether or not nuclear weapons were located on Taiwan.”

After the weapons were withdrawn from Taiwan in July 1974, the three other fighter wings in the Philippines, Okinawa and South Korea continued to be tasked under the SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan), the latter as a Quick Reaction Alert strike force. At that time the SIOP included four major attack options, two of which were against China, and three of 11 new Selected Attack Options directed by NUWEP-74 aimed at virtually all elements of Chinese military and industrial facilities.

It's incredible, the things that went on here. The post also contains an extensive discussion of the shift of the US nuclear posture to China in the early 1990s.

Politics and the Museum

Ian Johnson has amazingly nuanced article in WSJ on the politics of the National Palace Museum expansion....

The palace museum is in the midst of an ambitious expansion. But critics say the palace museum has made the expansion into a statement of independence and non-Chinese identity. The new extension, in a relatively remote part of Taiwan, is being called an Asian art museum and will feature art from the Middle East to Japan, cementing the island's links with other Asian countries -- and specifically not with China. The move won't make more of its Chinese masterpieces available to public. (Currently, for space reasons the museum can show only a handful of its monumental landscape scrolls, many of which date to the 10th century and are its most famous holdings.)

The new museum is being used to push Taiwanese independence, says Taiwanese art critic and exhibit curator Victoria Lu. Using the museum to promote Taiwanese identity, she says, is purely "politics."
Lots of good quotes, and a well rounded point of view. Don't miss the entire piece....

Saturday, May 17, 2008

US Defends Arms Sales, Upbraids China: and Ma?

At first I thought I must be hallucinating when I read the headline in the China Post: U.S. defends Taiwan arms sales, upbraids China. "Upbraids China"? How is that possible, I thought. Sure enough, the AFP article cited the actual words of Dep. Sec. of State Negroponte:

Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said Washington had expressed concern to Beijing about its ongoing military buildup on its side of the strait separating the mainland and the Taiwan island.

"We view China's buildup as unnecessary and counterproductive," he told a congressional hearing.
Negroponte said that missiles actually encourage the independence movement that they are supposed to deter. The language used is hardly "upbraiding." For example, Secretary of State Rice branded the DPP's UN referendum as "provocative." In the upside-down world of US-China relations, missiles are "unnecessary" while referendums are "provocative."

AP says that the invitation of KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung to China is a "sign of warming relations" though offhand I think this is his third official trip there. It would nice if those other trips had been mentioned, though that certainly would have caused head scratching among readers -- if Wu has been there before, how can a visit now be a sign of "warming relations?" What we really have is a sign of normal relations between the two parties proceeding normally.
In an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, Ma made it clear that he has no intention of following Chen's pro-independence path but said unification with China is unlikely "in our lifetimes.''
I've been listening in on much commentary in the papers, on email lists, and so on, on what Ma will mean for Taiwan and its future. The "negative view" is that Ma will begin taking steps that will hollow out our democracy at home and bring us too close to China abroad. This is signaled by the chilling pointers to Singapore as a model for Taiwan and other stuff. The "optimistic" view is that Ma will be too hemmed in by splits in his party -- the Lien Chan crowd dislikes him, as do the arch-conservatives and the Taiwanese KMT -- and by events to accomplish much (note that this incorporates the "negative view" -- if Ma could somehow get control of his party, he'd accomplish much damage). Some good things might come out of a Ma reign as well -- during the DPP administration the legislature slashed government departmental budgets in a (successful) attempt to harm the ability of the DPP to govern well. Ironically, with the KMT back in power, the legislature will be forced to expand budgets back to more realistic levels, and many useful projects might receive funding. A hamstrung Ma might even have only a four year reign. Also, I hear pigs may fly....

Over the next couple of years, I've heard, Ma plans to cool down the diplomatic initiatives of the ROC and stop attempting to compete with China. This might mean more room for soft diplomacy, for public diplomacy, it was explained to me. We'll see. I tend to be very pessimistic on what Ma means for Taiwan's democracy -- it seems incredible to me that the KMT will just risk delivering Taiwan back to the DPP at the end of four or eight years in a free and fair election. Guess we'll find out....

EVENT: David Reid of David on Formosa reminds me that...
Amnesty is also holding a screening of a documentary about a football match between the Danish and Tibetan teams which the Chinese tried to stop. The screening is tonight (5/17) at Bliss in Taipei.
China attempted to stop this football match because, as we all know, China never politicizes sporting events.....

Ta-ken Trail 4

Did a lot of hiking in Ta-ken this weekend. Today I wandered out on Trail 4, according to the sign, the most difficult of the 10 Ta-ken trails. Sponge Bear led the way as we notched another trail on our belt.

The trail meanders along a ridge for 1.8 kms, rising to 859m above sea level. Along the way you can take in the famous Giant 5 Leaved Pine, a moderately-sized pine tree with a flat top, no doubt the victim of some ancient lightning strike. Jim and I had no idea why it was famous.

I woke up very early and realized I had left my camera at the neighbor's the previous day, so I borrowed my old Fuji, now a fossil at 5 years of age, from my daughter. The autofocus has problems, but it still turns out solid pictures. We started up trail for just beyond this bridge.

The sign reminds us that monkeys are present. However, on crowded weekends they generally retreat far from the trail. Sorry about the autofocus there, the camera is on its last legs.

The ascent to the ridge is extremely rapid, but the views are excellent.

The trail is logged this way its entire length. It looks nice and is probably easy to maintain, but it's a bitch to walk on. The roundness means your foot is always threatening to slip between, turning an ankle or popping a kneecap, something my partner Jim did on a previous trip.

Here we look over the trail tracking the ridge behind us.

Bring gloves: after a couple of hours of grabbing the rope, my hands were red and swollen.

There were stirring views to the northeast over the river valleys on the other side of the ridges.

The old man posed for this shot; I especially loved his footgear. And I want to add, for the record, that any stories you hear of women two decades older than me blowing by me on the trail at twice my speed are baseless rumors and should be dismissed.

Conclusion: save Trail 4 for a day right after rain or a typhoon, because the views are the best of any of the Ta-ken trails. It's serious work; not only do you have to climb and descend vertically on those idiotic logs, but it has the least shade of any of the Ta-ken trails.