Our Predictable Establishment Commentators: Cossa in SCMP

Interesting week looking ahead -- new cabinet and premier to be announced tomorrow -- by presidential spokesman, and not by the president himself, a change in protocol -- and on Friday, the verdict in the Chen Shui-bian trial.

If anyone out there in the States can image and send to me the Mental Floss magazine article from this month that hilariously named Ma Ying-jeou as one of the world's five gutsiest leaders, I'd be eternally grateful forever for it.

A couple of weeks ago, when the DPP extended an invitation to their ally in the fight against Chinese colonialism, the Dalai Lama, I observed:

And how will the international media handle this conjuction of the freedom movement in Tibet, which it is sympathetic to, and Taiwan's pro-independence forces, who are (it goes without saying) "radicals" who "provoke" Beijing.

I think the answer was, predictably, Door Number Two on that one. Ralph Cossa of CSIS Pacific Forum, the all-Establishment-all-the-time think tank, had a long commentary in SCMP today about which it can only be said that if you want to consume tripe, Hakka style is definitely preferable to this. Onward and upward:

Taiwan opposition ploy effective but dangerous
Ralph Cossa
Updated on Sep 09, 2009

Right there in the title we have our Taiwan opposition, the DPP, out there being "dangerous." Gotta be careful of the pro-Taiwan, pro-democracy side. Next thing ya know, they'll have a referendum or something! Also, compare this to the Economist, which noted: "Chinese officials may be pleased that the DPP has apparently gained little." The DPP is "dangerous but effective", the DPP "gained little." You say tomato, I say fan chieh.

After a paragraph on how there were "serious concerns" about Taiwan's democracy a year ago thanks to the DPP, branded as incompetent and corrupt, and total KMT control of all aspects of the central government, Cossa goes on to say:

What a difference a year makes. Today, the DPP is resurgent and seems to have the Ma administration and KMT on the ropes. It may not have been very good at running the country, but it has proved itself to be a formidable force when it comes to its more traditional opposition role. One is tempted to tip one's hat to the DPP, except for one slight matter: its success is increasingly coming at the expense of Taiwan's economic recovery and potentially at a risk to its security,as well.

It's totally overblown to describe the DPP as "resurgent." The DPP is still pretty much where it was in May of last year when Ma became president. Rather, what's happened is that KMT control of the government has simply given the Party of the Dead Dictator every opportunity to display incompetence at whatever it turns its hand to, from economic recovery to typhoon relief. As a special bonus, Ma's signature projects as Taipei mayor, the Neihu subway line, and the trolley cars, are a mess. Despite controlling the legislature, stimulus bills have been passed tardily or not at all. One could go on. Suffice to say we are not looking at a rising DPP, but a flatpeter KMT.

But being Establishment to the core, Cossa makes his point: the DPP resurgence is affecting Taiwan's security and economy! Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my! I love the next paragraph's opening sentence, so wonderful in its unstated implications:

Take its latest political manoeuvre, for example.

....for example!!! You know, because it is one of many examples of DPP threats to the security and economy of Taiwan. I wonder if Cossa has written as feelingly on the KMT's blocking of the special arms purchases over 60 times of the legislature. Couldn't find one when I looked today.

Cossa discusses the invitation, and says it was a "stroke of genius for an opposition party that seems to have the majority running scared." Yes, the KMT is so scared it has been deterred from indicting and locking up DPP politicians left and right. Oh wait, it has been doing that. If only the DPP really did have the KMT on the ropes....

Cossa discusses the reaction of Beijing, and observes:

Thus far, Beijing's response has been muted: ritualistic protests and the cancellation of a number of events aimed at highlighting improved cross-strait relations. But there is a real danger that Beijing will, at some point, reach the conclusion that the Ma administration is too weak and incompetent to deal with and revert to its old tactic: marginalising Taiwan and limiting its political and economic opportunities.

This could put at risk Taipei's attempts to negotiate an economic co-operation framework agreement - in effect, a cross-strait free-trade agreement (FTA) - with the mainland. Such an agreement is not only significant in its own right, as a boost to Taiwan's economic recovery, but is expected to open the door for similar FTAs between Taiwan and many of its Southeast Asian neighbours and, perhaps, even with the US.

There are at least two key points omitted -- and probably deliberately so -- in this discussion. The first is that Beijing very much wants ECFA because it is a huge step forward in its desire to annex the island and hollow out its industries on its way to do that. For the same reasons, Ma and other KMT heavyweights want it. The second key point is that the KMT and the CCP are in constant communication and obviously discussed the reaction to the Dalai Lama's visit. Hence, there was never any threat to ECFA -- if only there had been! -- and all this is really just Cossa's way of taking a completely egregious swipe at the DPP.

After accusing the DPP of unnecessarily antagonizing Beijing -- once again, since Beijing determines when it is antagonized, Cossa is essentially arguing that the DPP submit its foreign policy to Beijing's approval (all "antagonizing" is unnecessary in Beijing's eyes) -- Cossa moves on to take a by-now patented slam at the DPP, which everyone will now recognize as the current Establishment position (see Jerome Cohen's op-ed in AWSJ for entirely similar sentiments)

Perhaps the time has come for the DPP to understand that the role of a responsible opposition is not just to oppose everything for the sake of embarrassing the party in power but to craft policies that serve both its and the people's interests.

Yes, the current slam -- circulating in Taipei as the conventional wisdom and repeated to me as if it were gospel by my Blue friends and of course, by the Really Knowledgeable types up in Chinatown the capital, is that the DPP is objecting for the sake of objecting. He ends by claiming:

It also seems hard to believe that the KMT, for all its political clout, has been unable to take its case to the people of Taiwan and has instead allowed the DPP to seize the initiative.

Dr. Cossa, the KMT can't "take its case to the people" because there is no rational case for an ECFA whose real purpose is to integrate the island so tightly with China that it will be effectively annexed, which will whack 7-9% off the size of our IT sector and about which both pro-DPP and pro-KMT think tanks have tendered very equivocal analyses (what? You didn't put those facts in your op-ed? How did that happen?). The KMT instead is "isolating the case from the people", ensuring that there is no democratic oversight, and conducting negotiations on a party to party basis. The KMT doesn't want to take the case to the people.

Moreover, note the glaring problem, as the observant person who flipped me this piece noted: Cossa says that the DPP should not make waves else Taiwan will be marginalized. As if it is not marginalized now? No, Cossa's argument is that Taiwan should marginalize itself now so we can partake of the glorious future later -- simply a US version of the KMT Cargo Cult view of China: if we just build that ECFA runway, Chinese planes will land and disgorge plenty of cargo for all!

Cossa, like many Establishment commentators, argues that Taiwan needs the ECFA with China so that it can then follow it up with free trade agreements with other nations, FTAs that China is currently preventing. But as Chao Wen-hung pointed out in the Taipei Times a couple of weeks ago, there is absolutely no reason for China to permit Taiwan to have FTAs after ECFA. By preventing FTAs, China will force Taiwan firms to relocate to China to take advantage of China's FTAs with other countries. Veterans will already be able to hear China's claims: "Taiwan, as part of China, has no need of FTAs of its own since it can already partake of China's FTAs."

I'd like to believe Establishment assurances that we'll get our FTAs, but I seem to recall that before and after the election, there was a slew of articles in which legions of US Establishment analysts hinted/predicted that China should reduce/eliminate the missile threat facing Taiwan, among them Cossa (in the Taipei Times, no less). In fact, Cossa himself said he thought there'd be some kind of missile draw down. And what happened? Well, a year later, Richard Bush, the longtime US government Taiwan specialist who is to inscrutable what Bergman was to beautiful, was forced to wonder aloud why China hasn't reduced its missiles facing Taiwan. Meanwhile the silence from the all those other analysts who said that China would reduce its missiles.... stretches.
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Rehabilitating Ma Ying-jeou??

One thing that struck me about both the awful Economist piece on the Dalai Lama I explored in the post below this one, and the equally execrable TIME magazine viewpoint on the Dalai Lama's visit, is the theme of Ma the Brave that appears in both. The Economist stated:

Mr Ma was well aware that he was taking a risk when he decided on August 27th to approve the Dalai Lama’s request to visit the island.

Similarly, the TIME writer said:

Ma took a gamble. He approved the trip — and bet on China's leaders appreciating his dilemma. They did: their censure was directed solely at the DPP with no mention of Ma whatsoever.

A body of literature is defined by the way it uses and subverts convention -- like the ancient Greek historical fictions filled with innocents going to their execution willingly, or modern horror movies with their virgins who are never slain. Like any good literature, the Establishment media is marked by its conventions, one of which is the Leader Who Makes Bold decisions. It makes for good narrative. But is it for real? Max Hirsch of Kyodo reports (behind paywall):

The Friends of Tibet, an India-based advocacy group with an office in Taipei, accused Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou of bowing to the wishes of Beijing and paring down the Dalai Lama's itinerary during his Sunday-Friday visit to the island.

''First it was the press conference that was canceled, then the public speech was downsized,'' the group's director Chow Meili said in a phone interview, referring to the Dalai Lama's engagements on Monday and Tuesday.

''It could not be clearer that the Ma administration is taking orders from the Chinese Communists,'' added Chow, whose husband, Khedroob Thondup, serves as a parliamentarian of the India-based Tibetan government-in-exile headed by the Dalai Lama, Khedroob's uncle.

Last week, opposition leaders in the south invited the Dalai Lama to console the victims of Typhoon Morakot, which lashed the island's south with heavy rains from Aug. 7-9. Floods and mudslides killed more than 600 people, with damage to property and crops estimated at roughly US$1.5 billion.

Risking the ire of China, Ma, of the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT), approved the invitation, and the Dalai Lama arrived in Taiwan on Sunday night.

The Ma administration sent KMT spokesman Lee Chien-jung to Beijing last week to soothe frayed nerves in a secret meeting with Chinese officials, Chow said.

Lee, she said, agreed to three conditions raised by the Chinese government in ''a horse trade'' conducted on behalf of Ma -- namely, that no KMT political heavyweights meet the Dalai Lama, and that the spiritual leader be barred from holding press conferences and from giving public speeches.

In return, Beijing would refrain from mentioning Ma, his administration and the KMT in criticizing the visit, she added.

In passing note the connections -- the Dalai Lama's nephew is married to an important aide of Lee Teng-hui (nephew's talk last year).

In other words, as we know, the CCP and the KMT have been in regular communication for several years now. Not only do we have the assertions of the Dalai Lama's people and of LTH's entourage that the KMT and the CCP were talking, but we also have the word of Premier Liu himself that they were, as reported on Sept 2:

[Premier] Liu would not comment on the nature of the communication that had occurred between Taiwan and China on the visit by the Dalai Lama, saying that he “was not involved” but was “aware of the process.”

“We had some information and made some impact assessments … But to say more about this would do no good,” Liu said.

Apparently, the writers for TIME and The Economist either do not know this -- in which case they lack the knowledge necessary to write on this topic -- or else they chose to sex up Ma's behavior to make him look stronger by ignoring the communication lines between the two Chinese parties. The reality, in other words, is that the risk was only apparent -- the deal was already made and the fix was in.

It is hard to tell whether this is simply writers engaging in conventional modes of presentation, or whether the media is returning, like robots equipped with only one solution for all problems, to its posture of admiration for Ma Ying-jeou, in an attempt to rehabilitate his image after the international media here in Taiwan widely publicized the incompetence and indifference of his administration's response to the typhoon, and his own seeming narcissism.
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Mirror, Mirror: Mirrored

Once again, as I fired up the transporter to visit Ardana to pick up a load of zenite for my FTL computer, I found myself transported to that other universe where everyone has a goatee and -- you won't believe it -- a black guy is president of the United States. Shopping in a local mall in the Republic of Formosa, I picked up a Roykirk Robot that the locals use to teach their children reasoning: if you outlogic it, it blows up and showers you with candy. Next, I searched the intertubes on the ubiquitous Atari OS and pulled down this article from the well-known rag The Socialist, which, upon my return here, I have placed side by side with a recent article on Taiwan from The Economist, so you can see how awful the propaganda is in that other universe.

The Socialist	The Economist
The invitation of Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to the Dalai Lama represented the latest challenge to the government of President Ma Ying-jeou, whose popularity had been slumping since his election by a large margin last March. Ma's approval ratings had taken another hit over his government's slow response to the typhoon, and his own apparent indifference to the suffering of his citizens.	A VISIT from the Dalai Lama was surely the last thing Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, wanted amid widespread public anger over his government’s slow response to a deadly typhoon in August. An angry China could have greatly added to his woes. But for all its grumbling about the trip, which is due to end on September 4th, the mainland does not want to upset a budding friendship.
Of course, Ma was well aware that he was taking no risk when he decided to approve the Dalai Lama's third visit to Taiwan. Ma's party, the KMT, is in constant communication with the CCP in Beijing, and China's mild response was apparently the result of talks between the two parties. The Dalai Lama's two previous trips to Taiwan had also triggered sturm und drang from Beijing, noises that Beijing makes to manage the foreign media and bully foreign countries. Fortunately Taiwan was led on the two previous occasions by democracy-minded Presidents who asserted Taiwan's sovereignty despite the hundreds of missiles Beijing points at the island.	Mr Ma was well aware that he was taking a risk when he decided on August 27th to approve the Dalai Lama’s request to visit the island. It would be the exiled Tibetan leader’s first trip there since 2001 and only his third ever. China was furious on the previous occasions, accusing the Taiwanese authorities of colluding with Tibetan “splittists”. Then, however, Taiwan was led by presidents who delighted in riling the mainland. Mr Ma came to power last year promising to mend fences.
Both Beijing and the KMT are more interesting in pushing through Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which the Ma Administration is touting as a cure-all for Taiwan's economic blues. The Administration argues that it will be at a trade disadvantage whena free-trade pact between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations takes effect next year. However, studies by both pro-Taiwan and pro-KMT think tanks in Taiwan show that the effects of ECFA will be mixed, with gains for polluting, subsidy-intensive traditional industries, but a 7-9% shrinkage for Taiwan's flagship IT sector. Hence, critics argue that Ma's real goal is not to secure a similar free trade deal for Taiwan, but to take a major step toward annexing the island to China.	Mr Ma does not want to jeopardise trade negotiations that Taiwan hopes to launch with China in October. His government is keen to secure tariff cuts for industries that it believes will be put at a disadvantage when a free-trade pact between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations takes effect next year (see article). Mr Ma’s goal is for Taiwan to secure a similar free-trade deal.
Ma had little choice but to approve the Dalai Lama's visit. His previous refusal to permit the religious leader to visit had angered the island's Buddhists, many of whom revere the Dalai Lama. On previous trips he spoke to packed venues. The DPP's invitation to the Dalai Lama thus put Ma in an apparent bind: either reject the visit and look like Beijing's lackey, or accept it and perhaps damage relations with China. However, since China views the ECFA pact as an important step on the road to annexing Taiwan, as Chinese analysts have indicated, there was little chance that relations between the KMT and Beijing would be affected.	In truth he had little choice but to approve the trip. On August 26th seven local politicians from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favours Taiwan’s formal independence from China, surprised him by publicly announcing that the Dalai Lama had accepted their invitation to visit Taiwan to pray for the souls of Taiwanese who had died during Typhoon Morakot, which ravaged the island earlier in August. The storm left almost 700 people dead. Mr Ma had turned down a proposed visit by the Dalai Lama last year, saying the timing was not right. This time he risked appearing heartless if he had refused. Plunging popularity polls suggested he could not afford that.
China confined its "ire" to blaming the pro-democracy parties in Taiwan and canceling a few minor events. KMT politicians have assidiously avoided meeting with the Dalai Lama. Both the KMT and the CCP claim that Tibet and Taiwan are part of China, while the DPP and the Tibetan freedom movements are allies, since both see themselves as facing similar problems of Chinese expansionism and colonialism.	So far, he seems to have pulled off his balancing act. China’s predictable outrage (it does not like the Dalai Lama paying visits anywhere) stopped short of blaming Mr Ma himself. The president helped by ruling out a meeting with the Dalai Lama, unlike his predecessors President Lee Teng-hui who had done so in 1997 and President Chen Shui-bian who had met him in 2001.
While disputing that his visit was political, the Dalai Lama met with DPP politicians, and said that Taiwan should preserve and protect its democracy, and that China should democratize. His aides canceled a speech and a press conference and scaled down a public meeting.The Dalai Lama’s nephew, Khedroob Thondup, said this was a result of heavy pressure from Mr Ma’s National Security Council.	The Dalai Lama, for his part, appeared eager to avoid trouble. “My visit here is of a non-political nature,” he said at the airport at the start of his six-day visit. “Actually, I am a Buddhist monk. It’s my moral principle to come if someone asks me to share sadness.” His aides cancelled a speech and a press conference and scaled down a public meeting. The Dalai Lama’s nephew, Khedroob Thondup, said this was a result of heavy pressure from Mr Ma’s National Security Council.
At Siaolin Village in southern Taiwan, where some 500 people were buried in landslides triggered by the typhoon, the Dalai Lama prayed with villagers. He also spoke to thousands of people at venues in southern Taiwan. There were a few desultory protests by right-wing Chinese nationalist groups, which Taiwan gangsters in southern China told local TV stations claimed they were behind. Local polls by both the DPP and pro-KMT media organs showed widespread approval of the visit.	In the village of Hsiao Lin, now a grey mass of rubble where an estimated 500 people were buried alive in a landslide triggered by the typhoon, the Dalai Lama embraced weeping relatives of the villagers. Deliberately placing his face away from journalists’ microphones, the exiled Tibetan leader said Taiwan was enjoying democracy. “I myself am totally dedicated to the pursuit of democracy,” he said.
China, intent on annexing the island through its alliance with Ma's party, the KMT, did nothing to disrupt relations between the two parties. With the Dalai Lama scheduled to leave at the end of the week, attention will be shifting to former President Chen Shui-bian, whose corruption trial verdict is scheduled for Sept 11. The government has already replaced one judge in the case when he ruled in favor of Chen, and the former President remains the only person ever indicted on corruption charges to remain in prison prior to his verdict. Few expect an acquittal.	China’s retaliation has been desultory. A delegation led by Su Ning, China’s deputy central bank governor, which was scheduled to arrive in Taiwan on August 31st, postponed its visit—but only by a week. Chinese officials may be pleased that the DPP has apparently gained little. Whatever gains it might have made were overshadowed on September 1st when former President Chen’s wife, son, daughter and son-in-law were jailed for perjury. On September 11th a court is due to announce a verdict in the corruption trial of Mr Chen himself. Few expect an acquittal.

As you can see, in our universe we are fortunate indeed to have such fine reporting for Serious Readers.
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Daily Links

• NYTimes on the India-China border as a flashpoint. As always when Taiwan is not the topic, note how the article has no trouble identifying the source of the tension as China's expansionist dreams. When Taiwan is the topic -- as in the above Economist piece -- you can bet that the source of the tension is Taiwan.
• Taipei schools don't want to fly Chinese flags. And why should they, with China boycotting the opening ceremonies.
• Bruce jacobs' excellent commentary on Chen and the judicial system. It is, however, missing two sentences from the beginning, where he points out that he had to meet Chen in a visiting room set aside for prisoners convicted of felonies.
• RTI on a trip to Siaolin Village where 500 lay buried beneath the mud.
• J Michael on China Post's insane editorial saying democracy was basically a bad idea.

SPECIAL: if you like biking, this video is ROFLMAO (h/t) to Andew Leonard at Salon.
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Dalai Lamaze: Breathe Deeply and Relax

Hahaha. While everyone else is reporting all sorts of complexities about the Dalai Lama's visit, AFP is there to reassure us that China is really really really gonna do it this time -- omigawd it could delay ECFA! Everybody panic! Hard to imagine how much more delay can occur, since Ma already said it is DOA until after the December elections -- and this on a project which we heard last year was absolutely imperative and must be done ASAP to "save" Taiwan's economy.

As Reuters notes, China has canceled minor exchanges and events...although the China Daily, reporting on the "cancellations", quoted a spokesman for China Southern Airlines as saying that no celebrations were planned in the first place, since budgets were tight and cross-strait flights were now routine.

Next we hear from TIME: glib, uninformed, shallow, lecturing -- it's everything you'd expect in a TIME viewpoint on the Dalai Lama's visit. Clearly here is a writer headed for bigger and better things in the Establishment media. The TIME writer says that the fact that exchanges go on through disagreement shows that relations are good. But last week, the Economist told us that relations worsened under the DPP even though exchanges went on through the disagreements. I get so confused...

In addition to the high popularity of the Dalai Lama's visit, one unfolding story has been the "protests" linked to Chinese nationalist gangs on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. J Michael Cole blogged yesterday on it, and it was all over the news today. Taiwan News described....

Most of the protests were conducted by the pro-China Labor Party or the pro-Beijing "Alliance for the Promotion of Chinese Unification," which has been linked to former United Bamboo Gang chief Chang Pai-leh. The latter group was involved in a violent scuffle at the Taoyuan High Speed Railway Station Sunday evening.

Said one outlet:

Chang An-lo, formerly a gang leader and dubbed "White Wolf," later said that he was behind the demonstration.

"We will follow the Dalai Lama wherever he goes in Taiwan," Chang told the TVBS cable television network.

Chang An-lo is a mainlander gangster with oldtime connections to the KMT's martial law era security apparatus.

This brings me to another point, which is our media double standard. Lest anyone has forgotten, for Beijing, "being provoked" is a policy choice, not a visceral reaction. Commentators have given China points for not crapping on Ma Ying-jeou, instead restricting its bloviating to hacking on the DPP. But you can see how the wind would have blown: had China rapped Ma's knuckles, the DPP and the DL would have taken the blame for "provoking". Either the DPP provokes China (poor China, so sorely tried!), or China "shows restraint" and keeps relations warm. No matter what happens, China always wins.

Speaking of poor China, so put upon by pacifists and democracy advocates, for those of you who have always wondered, there is an answer to how many times China's feelings have been hurt since 1949, as Asia Sentinel reports:

Fang plugged into an online archive of People's Daily at Peking U that dates back to the founding in 1948 and began typing the Chinese characters for "hurt feelings" into the search data base.

The result has become his master's thesis for which he has graphed the number of times the Chinese people's feelings been officially "hurt" and what countries have done it the most.

He found a sharp distinction between the Mao era (1949-1978) when Chinese feelings were hurt only three times, and the reform era (1978-present) when a bar graph he created showed hurt feelings spiking at 11 times in 1989 and 1998 and 12 times in 2000.

...and the winner is: the US, with 27 times. U-S-A! U-S-A! Japan!
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AFP in Classic

Reuters reports that President Ma Ying-jeou has no plans to meet with the Dalai Lama. That same article notes that:

On Friday, China gave the green light to 16 airlines to operate regular direct flights to Taiwan in a sign that the Dalai Lama's impending visit would not harm trade ties.

Behind the political theatre of the Dalai Lama's visit, the real politics go on....

Yesterday it was the Economist, today AFP published this brilliant account, so pro-Beijing in its construction that at first glance I thought the Aussie newspaper it appeared in had picked up Xinhua. Its very badness actually highlights some interesting political connections. AFP begins:

RELIGIOUS groups and pro-China activists have criticised the Dalai Lama's visit to Taiwan, saying the trip is "inappropriate" as the island reels from a deadly typhoon.

"Religious groups?" Let's see what they mean.

But the trip, during which the Buddhist leader is scheduled to visit typhoon-hit areas, has come under fire, with a pro-China group labelling him a "trouble-maker" while the Taiwan Mazu Association said the visit was "inappropriate."

"We hope Taiwanese people will believe in Taiwanese religions. Religious exchange is good in normal time but it is inappropriate at such a time," said Cheng Ming-kun, chief of the Taiwan Mazu Association.

"We urge politicians to stop taking advantage of religion... and toying with typhoon victims," he told reporters.

The association represents worshippers of the Taoist sea goddess Mazu, who has millions of followers.

"We urge politicians to stop taking advantage of religion," says Cheng Ming-kun.

Right.

Sometimes hypocrisy elevates itself beyond being merely blatant, achieving a kind of sublime disconnect with reality that is like a work of art. Such is this lecture from Cheng Ming-kun about separating politics and religion.

Who is Mr. Cheng? Cheng holds a couple of key positions in the Matzu Associations, such as the Deputy Chairman of the Jenlan Temple in Dajia. Ring any bells? That's the name of the island's most important Matzu temple, the subject of one of the world's largest pilgrimages. That's right -- the procession run by the former KMT politician, now "non-partisan", Yen Ching-piao, elected out of jail by his loyal constituents a few years back. That procession is a prime example of how politics exploits religion in Taiwan (anyone know where the zillions in donations go?). Cheng, who was kidnapped for 10 days in 2005 in what was widely rumored to be a shady business deal gone bad, was indicted for forgery and breach of trust in connection with the temple association. Naturally Cheng is close to Yen -- I believe the proper expression is "thick as thieves."

What are Cheng's political affiliations? Well, Cheng was in Beijing in July promoting cross-strait ties through better Matzu connections. Cheng also met with Chen Yun-lin, last seen here in November of 2008 negotiating on Beijing's behalf. Is leveraging Taiwan's most important goddess to annex Taiwan to China apolitical?

AFP's presentation is thus a comical parody of actual news construction. First it mentions the "pro-China" group and then opposes Cheng's comments to it as if he were neutral, not "pro-China." Then, the deputy head of the single most politicized temple on the whole island piously informs us that religion should not be politicized!

This piece should definitely be in the Onion.

How to explain this? A friend of mine pointed out that Pierre Louette, the current CEO of AFP, appears to have personal interests in China. Louette is the former CEO of Havas, the main marketing company for the Beijing Olympics. Since Havas represents some of the biggest corporations in China....

UPDATE: More explanations/clarifications in the comments below

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Daily Links:

• As of ten this morning, the NYTimes had this:
  

  Another travel marketer offering jobs is the Republic of Taiwan Tourism Bureau, with a contest called the Best Trip in the World (taiwanbesttrip.net). The offer: “Come up with the best Taiwan tour itinerary, take the tour, write about it online” and win a million Taiwan dollars (about $30,000) for a one-month trip around the island.

• Taiwan Matters notes that Ma went after Public Television three days after Morakot, apparently hoping to use the hoopla over the typhoon as cover to get his man in the top position.
• Average real income regresses to 1996 levels. It's a good thing we elected Ma and his economic czar to -- wait, what's that czar's name again?
• Our new AIT director, William Stanton, has arrived. Godspeed and good luck to the awesome Steve Young, who did a great job here. May his next post be filled with fewer headaches and more margaritas.

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Economist stinks on Dalai Lama visit

No star system will dare oppose the Emperor now.
The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers.

As many news reports have related, the Dalai Lama will be in Taiwan soon (w00t!). He is getting a visa as a foreigner, not an entry permit as an overseas Chinese as in 1997, too. The move was a nifty one by the DPP, not only making President Ma squirm and the Chinese bluster, but also reminding the world that Taiwan exists and even more crucially, once again drawing attention to the disaster here -- which is still ongoing and still requires donations (after all, the Dalai Lama has a global following who donate to worthy causes). This was a great move by the DPP, and its payoffs go beyond politics.

There was much media commentary on this, some of it quite good, but the normally excellent Economist published an inexcusable piece on the upcoming visit of the Dalai Lama to Taiwan. I'd say it was crap, but I have no desire to slight honest fertilizer. This is one of the worst pieces they've put out on Taiwan in some time. Let's take a look....

After eight years of worsening relations under President Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), now the main opposition, even a Taiwan-China summit has become conceivable. Now that Mr Ma is also chairman of the ruling Nationalist party, the Kuomintang, or KMT, such a meeting could be held with Hu Jintao not as China’s president, but as the head of its Communist Party.

The "worsening relations" propaganda theme seems to have acquired a tenacious hold in the media -- which is hardly surprising, since that is the only place where relations worsened. In the real world the busiest air route on the planet was between a city in China and one in Taiwan, and hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese had invested billions in China, a sum that grew yearly under the DPP Administration, which legalized investments. Indeed, relations got so bad that the two sides negotiated direct charter flights, student exchanges, informal police agreements, academic exchanges, and other items too numerous to list. None of these things existed under the Lee Teng-hui Administration (except for the factories moving to China) or previous KMT administrations, but never mind that. If Beijing says relations worsened, the Economist will dutifully say so too.

Thus, when investments grow and exchanges expand, relations are worsening, if you're from the DPP. And when Chinese missiles accumulate, relations are worsening, but it is the DPP Administration's fault, and has nothing to do with China's desire to annex Taiwan even at the cost of a regional war. It is hard to think of anything more stupid, more shitty, more anti-democracy, more completely retarded, than this "eight years of worsening relations" horse shit, and I devoutly hope never again to see it in print.

Pardon my rant. Why after four years am I still dreaming that facts can somehow insert themselves into discussions of cross-strait relations under the DPP?

But further observe how that in this construction China has vanished as a player -- relations get better or worse based solely on what Taiwan does. China is merely the passive recipient of Taiwanese action. This media construct is not merely wrong but actually upside down -- the determinant of cross-strait relations is China's attitude, and it didn't like the fact that the DPP defended the island's sovereignty and economy, and dickered hard with it. Finally it ceased to talk to the DPP (the DPP wanted good relations with China). Relations are "better" because Ma does Beijing's bidding, since in this calculus "better" is defined as what makes China happy -- and of course, as I have ceaselessly noted on this blog (example), the KMT has given away the shop on Taiwan.

Onward and upward....

So it seems astonishing that Mr Ma has jeopardised all this by doing the one thing most calculated to upset China: accepting a visit to Taiwan from the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibet, whom China reviles as a “splittist” when it is polite and “a jackal in monk’s clothing” when it feels cross.

China's control over this writer is so powerful that he apparently believes that Ma has jeopardized his China Kowtow and 2011 Hu-Ma Nobel Peace Prize Lovefest Sell-Out Tour. Not a chance. Does this writer seriously believe that China is going to expel a million Taiwanese and $200 billion worth of investments? Cut direct flights? Cancel ECFA? Start bombing immediately? Take away the er nai of Taiwanese businessmen in China? In any case -- it is worth repeating and I haven't said it in a while -- cross-strait relations are being run by KMT elites who detest Ma, not Ma himself. Ma will make a convenient whipping boy for all involved, but as reported today, China finessed the whole issue anyway by bloviating at the DPP, and the sellout will go on regardless even as the audience sits entranced by all the political theatre. It's not like ECFA, the real goal of the current Administration, will be slowed even one minute by this.

The Economist then goes on to give three reasons why the DL's visit couldn't be turned down this time as Ma did before, and continues...

China has of course responded angrily to Mr Ma’s decision to accept the Dalai Lama, as it does when any foreign government gives house room to the Tibetan leader—or these days to Rebiya Kadeer, an exiled activist from China’s ethnic-Uighur minority.

It is noticeable, however, that China has directed its fiercest criticism not at Mr Ma, but at the DPP, which favours Taiwan’s eventual formal independence from China. It accused the party of trying “to sabotage the hard-earned positive situation of cross-straits relations”.

Note that the point of view Beijing expresses here is the one the Economist has actually adopted in presenting this article -- that the DPP "worsens" relations (remember those eight years of worsening relations).

Did you catch that gross error there? Instant replay:

.....at the DPP, which favours Taiwan’s eventual formal independence from China.

Hey but (1) Taiwan isn't part of China now and (2) thus the DPP does not favor independence from China but simply independence, period. Taiwan independence supporters do not believe that Taiwan is part of China. Once again Beijing adumbrates the writer's presentation of affairs.

This indicates both the greater sensitivity China has shown in recent years to Taiwan’s internal politics, and the dilemma its policy always faces there. If it punishes Mr Ma by introducing sanctions or slowing down the pace of rapprochement, it would undo his government’ s main achievement. And the biggest beneficiary of this would be the DPP, China’s enemy.

Beijing-centric again -- the DPP is described in terms of China, and in terms that China would approve of -- the DPP is not China's enemy ("The DPP's evil motives will definitely be opposed by compatriots across the Taiwan Straits," Beijing howled today). The government of China, rather, is the enemy of Taiwan independence and democracy, just as it is the enemy of democracy in its own land.

I was talking about this on the net with a long-time observer of Taiwan affairs, who recalled that years ago The Economist printed a Leader advocating Taiwan independence. But The Economist was made of sterner stuff then.

UPDATE: Excellent comments below

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Daily Links

• Jon Adams explains why Ma permitted the DL to come to Taiwan
• Ralph Jennings of Reuters reports on Ma attempting to salvage his reputation after Morakot.
• China Daily gives the propaganda rundown from the Empire. The article is actually an interesting mix of distortions, disinformation, truths, half-truths, and lies. Great work.
• NYTimes says that China opposes the DL's trip to Taiwan. No kidding? And in other news the Raj opposed Gandhi's visit to India, and Apartheid advocates resolutely rejected attempts by Mandela supporters to get him out of jail. If the Dalai Lama wants better press, he needs to set up 1,400 missiles opposite a democracy, demand that it be annexed to Tibet, and then threaten to plunge the region into war if he doesn't get his way.
  

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