I am entering on the history of a period rich in disasters, frightful in its wars, torn by civil strife, and even in peace full of horrors. Tacitus, The Histories, Book I
- ESSENTIAL: Lawfare: Excellent roundup on Trump, China, and Trump's policy advisers, with links
- J Michael Cole: A Taiwan Defense Blueprint for the Trump Era
- Nathan Batto: What does Trump Mean for Taiwan?
- Brian Hioe: Trump and Taiwan
- WSJ: If President Trump turns his back on Taiwan
- Taipei Times: What Trump means for Taiwan
- Peter Navarro, a policy advisor for Trump, wrote prior to the election: American Can't Abandon Taiwan and Can Taiwan Withstand China's Economic Might?
- WSJ: China hopes for US Asia Withdrawal
- NYTimes: Asia greets Trump with Caution
- National Interest: the always good James Holmes asks How Trump and China should deal with each other.
- Trump Adviser in SCMP: US will accept China's rise so long as no revisions of status quo occur. LOL.
- Guardian: Trump's Impulsive Adventurism and Asia-Pacific Security and what a Trump presidency means for the Asia-Pacific region
- BBC: China eyes chance to weaken US power
- From Chinese commentator: Which way for US-China relations under Trump?
- Foreign Policy: China just won the US election
- The Diplomat: Prepare for Uncharted Geopolitical Waters in Asia
- News Lens: Trump and China
- Lin Chong-pin: Trump will be good for Taiwan
- KMT news organ: Trump victory to rein in independence forces
- LOLs from Hugh White: Australia must prepare for an Asia without America
- President Tsai congratulates Trump
- Shortlist for Sec of State in new Administration includes longtime Taiwan supporter John Bolton
"Now China’s confidence will return, and few in the region will have confidence in Washington’s ability to provide shelter from China’s nascent hegemony. Taiwan, already facing tough mainland rhetoric after electing anti-Beijing leader Tsai Ing-wen, will feel completely isolated — and PERHAPS BE VULNERABLE TO ACTUAL INVASION — without the firm promise of U.S. protection."
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7 comments:
Hard not to feel scared. Is Trump going to sell Taiwan for some trade deal? Or start getting into a twitter war with China?
Then again, I've heard that Trump plans to leave the governing to Pence, so who the hell knows what the actual foreign policy is going to be.
Lots of good articles here, but I don't see your personal thoughts on this, which I have previously enjoyed reading. You hint at them with the snippet from that one article, but I've also seen you take the position that those political commentators who label people as "anti-beijing" and go on about military tension are exaggerating the situation.
On the other hand, if that snippet is your position, then I agree. I am no fan of Trump, a would-be tyrant who has argued since 1987 that the US essentially ought to be a mercenary, and should withdraw its troops from both the Asia-Pacific and Europe unless these nations explicitly agree to be a part of some sort of US imperial project and pay up accordingly. To wit, he once argued during the Gulf War that Kuwait should hand over 20% of its oil profits since "Kuwait wouldn't exist without the US military."
Given that, I fully expect him to attempt to try to withdraw these troops, and I fully expect that in that event, the PRC will gleefully rub its hands and give an ultimatum to Taiwan on annexation which allows for the use of military force if Taiwan doesn't agree to it. I also expect that, in that event, the PRC will almost instantly go after the Senkaku Islands and possibly begin to make loud growling noises about Okinawa to Japan. Nothing would please the ultranationalists in the PRC more, I suspect, than the ability to defeat Japan in a short, sharp, war to "take its historic territory back" a la Russo-Japanese War of 1905. If the PRC could do so in a time when Trump had withdrawn US troops or just withdrawn them, it would end the US alliance system overnight, and basically return the US to its status before WWII as a geopolitical backwater. It would be almost impossible for the US to reconstruct its alliances after something like that, and for every other autocracy it would be open season for whatever military revanchism they might not previously have undertaken (see: Russia, Eastern Europe).
Interesting article about Kissinger's view on Obama, Trump and Hillary
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/kissinger-order-and-chaos/506876/
Given that, I fully expect him to attempt to try to withdraw these troops, and I fully expect that in that event, the PRC will gleefully rub its hands and give an ultimatum to Taiwan on annexation which allows for the use of military force if Taiwan doesn't agree to it
I am not the least bit worried about our political situation. Trump's advisors all strongly support Taiwan.
I think that Mike is right. The people Trump looks like he'll be relying on for foreign policy are all pro-Taiwan. I just don't think Trump is interested enough in foreign policy to ignore them all - not least if he thinks there's money to be made selling Taiwan more stuff.
It's possible that the US may draw down numbers of personnel stationed in South Korea and Japan a bit, but to be honest the US was never going to deploy tens of thousands of marines to Taiwan anyway. If it intervened, it would be by sea and air. As for Japan and South Korea, arguably they don't need tens of thousands of troops stationed on their soil. For Japan it's the US Navy, and for South Korea perhaps the Air Force.
@michael Turton,
Thanks for your response, and for allaying my fears about that possibility.
Regards,
Alexandre.
Hillary was considering selling out Taiwan.
https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/23730
Obama was not friendly to Taiwan. Hillary might not be better. Taiwan needs to do everything to make sure Trump presidency do better for Taiwan.
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