Stored below the READ MORE link... starts with Tsai's speech on election night in English and Chinese
For Immediate Release
Jan. 16, 2016
"We Have Embarked on the First Mile toward Reform"
President-Elect Tsai Ing-wen's Address to
DPP Campaign Victory Rally
[TAIPEI] - To the friends here with us at the rally, standing by the television, young people watching the live-stream online, and all people of Taiwan, good evening.
I would like to thank my running mate, Dr. Chen Chien-jen, my campaign chair Mayor Chen Chu, and all of our colleagues at the campaign headquarters. Thank you for all of your hard work. We are also happy to see our previous vice president and past chairmen of the DPP in joining us for this historical occasion.
As I have said before, I will do everything I can to turn your tears into smiles. Today, we succeeded.
As a result, if you still have tears in your eyes, please wipe them away. Together, let's welcome a new era for Taiwan with joy and happiness.
My colleagues told me that today, in this event, some of our supporters have been here since noon to wait for the election results.
Is everybody happy?
Is everybody happy?
I understand that, over these past years, some of you have had your reservations towards me. People felt that I'm too rational and that I'm not willing to show my emotions in public. So right here, I want to tell everybody, if all of you are happy, then let us please give Taiwan a big cheer.
Together we have accomplished a great task for Taiwan. This is how I feel right now. However, I am calm at heart, because I know that in the future, my responsibility will only grow heavier. Thank you for everybody's support for Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Chien-jen. Thank you for your support for the DPP. On behalf of the DPP, once again, I would like to express my deepest gratitude towards the people of Taiwan.
Thanks to all the people of Taiwan, we have completed the third transition of political power in Taiwan's democratic history together. We have lit up Taiwan. And through our actions, we want to tell the world, once again, that Taiwan equals democracy and democracy equals Taiwan.
I also want to thank my two competitors in this election, Chairman Chu and Chairman Soong. Together, we have written a new page in the history of Taiwan's democracy. I have just spoken with each of them over the phone, and I appreciate the expectations that they hold for this country. In an election, there will be winners and losers, but the ultimate victory will always belong to Taiwan's democracy. Here, I extend my sincere invitation to them: we cannot start the future path of reform of this country without you.
I also wish to thank my colleagues, our support organizations, and our many volunteers and staff. You have sacrificed your holidays and time with your families. No matter rain or shine, even as you fought back sickness and fatigue, you have fought shoulder to shoulder with me. You are the best team that I could have hoped for. It has been the greatest privilege of my life to be able to complete this last mile with you.
I must offer a special thanks to the young employees at the campaign headquarters and especially the staff at the DPP. Over these past years, there has been one thing on my mind that I want to share with you. Our party has fallen down in the past. But I have always believed that, one day, we shall once again walk tall with confidence and responsibility when we wear our party's colors in public. Tonight, we have accomplished this.
Next, I wish to thank every single person that made a small donation in this election campaign, every friend who donated to us their piggy banks, and everyone who provided us with their money and efforts. Because of you, the DPP has affirmed that it is a party that belongs to the people of Taiwan.
Voting is but a day. And the election campaign is but a few months. However, changing this country requires daily dedication and constant effort. Tonight, we can celebrate - and we can celebrate loudly. But when the sun starts to shine tomorrow, we must take up the responsibility of reform for this country.
At this moment in Taiwan, there are many elderly people waiting for a more comprehensive long-term care system.
At this moment in Taiwan, Taiwan's young people are waiting for a fairer housing environment.
We cannot forget that many small and medium-sized enterprises are also waiting for us to upgrade and transform our industries.
We also cannot forget that we have a pension system that is on the brink of bankruptcy, waiting for us to save it.
Furthermore, we have not forgotten that maintaining the security of the Taiwan Strait and cross-strait peace and stability is everybody's common expectations and something that both sides should work towards. Maintaining the "status quo" is my commitment to the people of Taiwan and the international community. I will keep my word. I also promise everybody that when I manage cross-strait relations in the future, it will be based on proactive communication. There won't be provocation and there won't be surprises.
To my dear people of Taiwan, through our joint efforts, we have seen the victory of democracy. We must also join our efforts for future reform. We will face many challenges, as the path of reform is a difficult one. However, no matter the challenges, the people of Taiwan have never been defeated.
We have already embarked upon the first mile on the path to reform. As long as we continue to support one another and to continue down our course, we will bring forth a country with more freedom, more democracy, more prosperity, and more justice.
The new Legislature will convene on February 1. The DPP will prioritize legislation that are most relevant to the cares of the people. We will maximize the efforts towards our reform, while at the same time, minimizing instability.
The DPP is now the majority party in the Legislature. We hold an absolute majority and we must fulfill our promises to the voters. Our reform will not be half-measured.
This is the first time that our Legislature will experience a transition of political power. The responsibility we have is therefore greater than before. I will re-emphasize that the DPP is committed to use its majority responsibly. We will continue to open up the DPP to those whose voices are not fully represented in the Legislature. At the same time, we will work with all other political parties, including the KMT, PFP, and NPP, to whole-heartedly pursue our agenda for reform.
Here, as president-elect and party chairperson, I will order all party officials to be humble, humble, and more humble.
In this new era, the people of Taiwan can work together to reform this country, regardless of ideological, political, or ethnic affiliations. This is Tsai Ing-wen's promise. This is also Tsai Ing-wen's commitment.
Last night - the night prior to the elections - I saw Mr. Su Beng, who is 98 years old. He came to the front of the stage on a cold rainy night to cheer me on. It is already difficult for him to speak, but I know what he wanted to say to me - that as the president of Taiwan, I will need resolve, determination, and strength.
I want to tell Mr. Su Beng that I will be strong. I will stay strong every minute while I address the difficulties facing Taiwan. And Tsai Ing-wen must stand in strength, so that the people of Taiwan can stand firm with me.
Taiwan is a democratic and free country. What makes our country great is that every person in Taiwan has the right to be true to oneself. This country shall protect the rights of all people to choose freely. As the president-elect, I solemnly declare that everyone must respect this freedom.
The electoral results today prove to the whole world that the Taiwanese are a free and democratic people. As long as I am president, I will do everything in my power to ensure that no citizen of Taiwan will need to apologize for their identity.
To the dear people of Taiwan, a new era has begun. "The dawn is near. There are people here, who resolve to protect our dreams, and thus vow to become stronger than before."
We are these people. After this election, we have gained more courage. We will continue to work hard for our fellow Taiwanese and for our next generation.
Once again, I would like to thank everyone present and the people of Taiwan.
Dignity, unity, and confidence, this is the new Taiwan. Thank you. Good night and may Taiwan be blessed.
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逾三萬人湧進勝選晚會蔡英文：改革的第一里路，已經開始
2016-01-16
民主進步黨總統當選人蔡英文今(16)日晚間副總統當選人陳建仁、前副總統呂秀蓮、全國競總主委陳菊市長、黨秘書長吳釗燮、總幹事蘇嘉全、執行總幹事林錫耀，以及台中市長林佳龍、台南市長賴清德、基隆市長林右昌、嘉義市長涂醒哲、新竹市長林智堅、宜蘭縣長林聰賢、雲林縣長李進勇、彰化縣長魏明谷、桃園市副市長邱太三、民進黨前主席許信良、姚嘉文、謝長廷、游錫堃、前行政院長張俊雄及前總統府秘書長葉菊蘭陪同，出席勝選晚會。
蔡英文致詞全文如下：
各位現場的朋友，各位電視機前面的好朋友，網路上收看直播的年輕朋友，我們全體的台灣人民，大家好，大家晚安。
我們的競選搭檔陳建仁院士，競選總部主任委員陳菊市長，還有我們所有的競選總部的同仁，各位辛苦了。我們今天很高興，我們幾位前副總統和前主席，一起來參加這歷史的時刻。
我說過，我拚了命，也要把各位的淚水轉化成笑容。各位，我們都做到了。
所以，如果你的眼中還有淚水，請大家把它擦乾。我們一起用快快樂樂的心情，來迎接台灣新時代的開始。
我的工作同仁告訴我，今天我們的這個現場，從中午開始，就有支持者坐在這裡等開票了。
大家有歡喜某？大家有歡喜某？
我知道，這些年來，你們對蔡英文有一個小小的抱怨。就是大家認為，我太過理性，從來不公開表達自己的情緒。所以，在這裡，我要跟大家說，如果大家真的很高興，我們就大聲為台灣歡呼一次。
我們一起為台灣完成了一件重要的事，這是我此時此刻，心裡的感覺。我的心情其實很平靜，因為，我知道，未來我的責任將會很重。感謝大家對蔡英文、陳建仁的支持，感謝大家對民主進步黨的支持，我再一次代表民主進步黨，向全體台灣人民，致上我最深的謝意。
感謝所有的台灣人民，我們一起，完成了台灣民主史上第三次的政黨輪替。我們點亮了台灣，我們再一次用行動告訴全世界，台灣等於民主，民主等於台灣。
我要謝謝我的兩位競爭對手，朱主席和宋主席，我們一起為台灣的民主政治，寫下了歷史新頁。我了解他們對這個國家的期待。選舉有輸贏，但是，最終勝利的永遠是台灣的民主。在這裡，我誠摯地邀請他們，這個國家，未來改革的路上，不能沒有你們。
我還要謝謝我的工作同仁，我們的後援會，我們的志工。你們犧牲假日，犧牲陪伴家人的時間，無論晴天雨天，就算生病感冒，都跟我並肩作戰。你們是最強的團隊。能跟各位一起走完著最後一里路，是我這一生最大的榮幸。
我還要特別謝謝這次競選總部中年輕的工作同仁們，尤其是黨工。過去，這麼多年來，我心中一直有一句話想跟大家說。這個黨曾經失敗過，但是，我一直告訴我自己，總有一天，我要讓大家穿著這個黨的制服，走到外面的時候，心中是充滿著信心和責任感。我們做到了。
接下來，我要謝謝每一位在這次選舉中，貢獻小額捐款，用小豬或其他方法，出錢出力的好朋友。因為你們，民進黨再一次確認，我們就是台灣人民的政黨。
投票是一天，選舉是幾個月，不過，改變這個國家，卻是每一天都必須持續的工作。今天晚上，我們可以慶祝，各位可以高高興興的慶祝。明天太陽升起的時候，我們就要為這個國家，負起改革的責任。
此時此刻的台灣，有很多老人家，正在等待一個更健全的長照系統。
此時此刻的台灣，台灣的年輕人，正在等待一個更公平的住宅環境。
我們不能忘記，還有很多中小企業，正在等待升級轉型的契機。
我們也不能忘記，還有一個快要破產的年金制度，正在等待我們去挽救。
我們更沒有忘記，維持台海安全及兩岸關係的和平和穩定，是大家共同的期待，也是兩岸要一起努力的事。「維持現狀」，是我對台灣人民以及對國際社會的承諾，我一定說到做到。我也向大家保證，未來我處理兩岸關係，會積極溝通，不挑釁，也不會有意外。
親愛的台灣人民，民主的勝利，是我們共同創造的；改革，也要由我們一起來推動。我們將會面對很多挑戰，改革的過程一定會很辛苦，但無論是怎麼樣的磨難，台灣人從來不曾被擊倒過。
改革的第一里路，已經開始。只要我們相互扶持，堅定走下去，一個更自由、更民主、更繁榮、更公義的國家，就在我們眼前。
二月一號，新國會即將開始。民進黨會優先處理人民關心的法案。改革的能量要放到最大，同時，改革的動盪會減到最小。
民主進步黨，現在是國會的多數黨。我們單獨過半，我們就要兌現對選民的承諾，我們一定要兌現對選民的承諾，改革絕對不能剩一半。
這是台灣第一次的國會政黨輪替。我們身上的責任，比以前沉重。我再一次強調，民進黨不會整碗捧去。我們會繼續開放民進黨，努力傾聽那些沒有進入國會的聲音。同時，我們也會和包括國民黨、親民黨和時代力量在內的所有政黨，一起為了改革全力以赴。
在這裡，我要以總統當選人的身分，也要以黨主席的身分，對民主進步黨全體黨公職人員，下達第一個命令，謙卑、謙卑、再謙卑。
台灣人民，不分藍綠、不分政黨、不分族群，在新時代裡，一起為改革這個國家努力。這就是蔡英文的承諾。這就是蔡英文的保證。
昨天的選前之夜，我看到已經98歲的史明歐吉桑，在那麼冷的天氣裡，淋著雨，還來到舞台前面，為我加油。他說話已經很困難，但是我知道，歐吉桑是要告訴我，做台灣的總統，要有志氣，要有決心，要堅強。
我在這裡要跟歐吉桑說，我一定會堅強。面對台灣的困境，我每一分鐘都會堅強。蔡英文堅強，台灣人民才會跟著我一起堅強。
台灣是一個民主自由的國家。這個國家偉大的地方，就在於每一個人都有做自己的權利。這個國家，保障所有國民，自由選擇的權利。在這裡，我要以總統當選人的身分，鄭重呼籲，任何人，都必須尊重這份自由。
今天的選舉結果，是向世界證明，台灣人就是自由人，台灣人就是民主人。只要我當總統的一天，我會努力，讓我的國民，沒有一個人必須為他們的認同道歉。
各位親愛的台灣人民，新時代已經開始。「天色漸漸光，這裡有一群人，為了守護我們的夢，變成更加勇敢的人」。
我們就是這一群人。經過這次選舉，我們已經更加勇敢。明天開始，我們要繼續為我們的手足同胞，為我們的下一代而努力。
再一次謝謝所有現場的好朋友，謝謝所有的台灣人民。
尊嚴、團結、自信，這就是新台灣。謝謝大家。天佑台灣。
###
US CONG'L REACTION SO FAR...
For Immediate Release
January 16, 2016
Contact: Tristan Daedalus
(202) 870-4973
Chairman Salmon Comments on Successful Elections in Taiwan
Washington, D.C. - Rep. Matt Salmon (AZ-05), chairman of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, today released the following statement after successful elections in Taiwan.
"I offer my heartfelt congratulations to the people of Taiwan for another successful, democratic election in their country. In particular, I congratulate Taiwan's new president, Tsai Ing-wen, and her Democratic Progressive Party for their victories.
"Our close relationship with Taiwan, a vibrant democracy and natural ally, is only further deepened by this free election of their next leader and the peaceful transition of power that marks developed nations around the world. I look forward to working with President Tsai's administration in the years ahead."
Cardin Statement on Taiwan's Historic Election
BALTIMORE -U.S. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued this statement following Taiwan's historic election.
"Taiwan has once again demonstrated an unwavering commitment to democracy and freedom of expression following their now concluded historic campaign and election. I extend my heartfelt congratulations to the people of Taiwan for once again exercising their democratic rights and serving as a shining example for the international community in holding their presidential and legislative elections.
"President-elect Tsai Ing-wen secured an historic victory by becoming the first female president of Taiwan. This achievement should be celebrated throughout the world and I wish the newly elected government taking office later this year continued success as they begin the process of governing and leading Taiwan.
"President Ma has led a prospering Taiwan during his time in office and took courageous risks. I offer my congratulations to him for having served his country proudly and with distinction.
"I look forward to the relationship between Taiwan and the United States further strengthening now and long into the future. As the Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I will remain a strong champion of the Taiwan Relations Act, a longstanding tenant of U.S. foreign policy, and to efforts toward maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and throughout East Asia."
STATE DEPT On Taiwan's Election
Press Statement
John Kirby
Spokesperson, Bureau of Public Affairs
Washington, DC
January 16, 2016
The United States congratulates Dr. Tsai Ing-wen on her victory in Taiwan's presidential election. We also congratulate the people on Taiwan for once again demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system, which will now undergo another peaceful transition of power.
We share with the Taiwan people a profound interest in the continuation of cross-Strait peace and stability. We look forward to working with Dr. Tsai and Taiwan's leaders of all parties to advance our many common interests and further strengthen the unofficial relationship between the United States and the people on Taiwan.
The United States thanks President Ma Ying-jeou for his efforts to develop a strong partnership with the United States and applauds him for concrete steps he has taken to improve cross-Strait ties in recent years. We hope that President Ma's administration and the incoming administration will work constructively to ensure a smooth transition and continue to promote peace and stability in the region.
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RUBIO CONGRATULATES TAIWAN'S NEWLY ELECTED PRESIDENT
Washington, D.C. - U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) today issued the following statement congratulating Dr. Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's newly elected president:
"I congratulate Dr. Tsai Ing-wen as Taiwan's newly elected president. I have appreciated my interactions in the past with outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou, and I look forward to working with Dr. Tsai to deepen the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.
"Taiwan's latest election once again shows the island to be a thriving democracy. The people of Taiwan continue to chart a course of what the future can eventually look like for more than a billion Chinese who still live under Communist Party rule. The Chinese people are surely taking note of the freedoms Taiwan's citizens enjoy and of the truly representative nature of the government in Taipei.
"Tsai Ing-wen will not only be Taiwan's first female president, but her inauguration will also mark Taiwan's third peaceful transition of power between opposing political parties, a significant accomplishment for a relatively young democracy. This occurs at a time of growing challenges to regional peace and security, due especially to Beijing's assertiveness in the region. As Dr. Tsai settles into her new role, the United States must be prepared to stand by Taiwan-to provide moral support, enhance economic links, and deepen our political engagement and our security cooperation including additional arms sales, in the face of possible Chinese threats and attempts at intimidation aimed at the island.
"Although the Obama Administration has repeatedly failed to give it the consideration and support that it deserves, Taiwan is one of America's oldest and most loyal friends in Asia. Our peoples share common values and have stood together for freedom in the face of tyranny. We must continue to do so in order to ensure that the Asia-Pacific remains prosperous and peaceful and that democracy continues to flourish in Taiwan."
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US-CHINA-TAIWAN...now on everyone's discussion agenda... we earlier sent the full text of senior DPP official Joseph Wu's very comprehensive remarks, but just in case, here's the PDF download from CSIS which includes the charts and graphs which our "system" can't handle:
We should begin with Brookings' co-host Richard Bush opening note that Saturday's election was a truly "special event", since it was the first-ever "we the people" vote carried out by Chinese people via "free elections"...and that includes not just Taiwan and the Mainland, but Hong Kong and Singapore "to a certain extent":
"So small-d 'democrats' around the world should applaud this institutional expression of free government by the people..."
In Dr. Wu's remarks, you may have noted that he repeatedly refers to "China", rather than the "Mainland" or other euphemisms, so we find ourselves wondering, at least parenthetically, how Beijing is likely to react to this usage by such a senior DPP figure!
Anyhow, to the substance of the former (and future?) TECRO US representative's remarks, after a long "political science" discussion of the vote, and the DPP's analysis of the reasons for its enormous majority for both president and Legislative Yuan [and this is from our scribbled notes, NOT an official transcript!] he carefully spelled out existing and planned DPP policy under Pres.-elect Tsai on the critical issues of concern to the audience present, and in the Administration:
He was exquisitely careful to remind Beijing and Washington of Dr. Tsai's very careful explanation that her policy will be to pursue a continuation of a "stable and peaceful status quo" in Cross- Strait relations, and that included a long section on all aspects of the "1992 consensus" dilemma which many experts feel could be the spark for renewed Cross Strait tensions.
Pres.-elect Tsai hopes that China will pursue progress in this area "without preconditions to any deal", and she would work toward having each side establish representative or consulate offices "for their citizens...there are lots of examples of this without 'diplomatic recognition'."
This topic quickly gets pretty arcane, and we urge you to read the long and precisely constructed discussion. The gist as we heard it is that Dr. Tsai hopes Xi Jinping (names were not used, to be clear) is "willing to set aside specific differences and work on practical ways to avoid confrontation and surprises...and the DPP will put forward legislation on [how to accomplish] peaceful relations with China..."
Hummm...discussion in the hall by long-time experts of course hoped that would be the case, but frankly doubted that Xi would take that route. On the other hand, most were confident that Xi has sufficient domestic and international financial complications to manage that the last thing he'll want is a noisy confrontation with Taiwan, since "by definition" that would mean a problem with the US.
A second major topic of interest in DC is US-Taiwan trade relations under the Tsai Administration, and the established DPP position of wanting to be in Tranche 2 of TPP next year was made clear. Moderator Bonnie Glaser noted during the Q&A's that setting aside the Beijing politics issue, technically or legally Taiwan is fully eligible to join TPP as a member of APEC.
Your Editor asked how the incoming administration planned to handle the long-standing problems with the US over ag issues, specifically involving pork, as a pre-requisite to joining TPP. We mistakenly phrased the question in terms of the old BIT negotiations, but this is now obsolete, of course.
Any long-standing US-Taiwan trade issues, especially including ag, will be folded into the TPP accession process if/when it gets started. We had privately asked informed Japanese Gov't sources for comment about media reports that Taiwan wanted an FTA with Japan.
(Dr. Wu's remarks today included that the Tsai Administration would, indeed, welcome FTA-like arrangements with trading partners, especially Japan.) Speaking directly to that, an informed GOJ source said that while no decision has been made in Tokyo specifically on Taiwan, it is correct to say that any Japan-Taiwan trade negotiations would likely take place under the umbrella of TPP accession.
More generally, our source said:
"A specific FTA is likely too strong a way to put it. But Japan will take into account our existing position of maintaining working relations with Taiwan on a non-governmental basis."
On the difficult S. China Sea confrontations in which Taiwan, as the original author of the 11-Dash Line when still the ROC, a long discussion, and a promise that the Tsai Administration will not renounce its claims, but will support the international tribunal decision, and will adhere to UNCLOS and other elements of international law.
However, the Tsai Administration will continue to object to Taiwan's exclusion from the international court, and Dr. Wu made the argument that this is a part of the long-standing goal of preserving and expanding Taiwan's international roles.
And, directly to long-expressed US concerns about Dr. Tsai, "on any decision on the S. China Sea we must consider meetings with regional friends, especially the US [and also meeting with] China, "therefore we will only act after full consultations with all..."
In terms of what the Tsai Administration wants from the US:
"We need the US to encourage the two sides to keep talking to each other...and over the years, the US has always encouraged China to negotiate with Taiwan, and we appreciate that...[so] we're very happy to see the US playing a leading role which shows [the world that Taiwan] is not dangling out there alone..."
Specifically on DPP-China contacts and relations:
"There are lots of exchanges cross-Strait, by scholars, KMT legislators, Chinese scholars all the time, therefore if China wants to understand us, they can always find a way, therefore the channel [method] is not the problem the problem is China taking steps to establish trust. We are offering good will and hope China will offer good will as well..."
(Remember, all of the above is from our scribbled notes, NOT an official transcript...with apologies in advance for mistakes)
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AIWAN ELECTION...a long-time resident from the business world offers useful perspective, must be "anon" for obvious reasons:
Chris, here's my take...
The resounding DPP triumph in Saturday's election - and the humiliating degree of the KMT defeat -mark a watershed in Taiwan politics. It poses a challenge for Beijing in how to set its cross-Strait strategy, and should affect how Taiwan is perceived in Washington and elsewhere around the world. Key takeaways:
The resounding DPP triumph in Saturday's election - and the humiliating degree of the KMT defeat -mark a watershed in Taiwan politics. It poses a challenge for Beijing in how to set its cross-Strait strategy, and should affect how Taiwan is perceived in Washington and elsewhere around the world. Key takeaways:
- · The extent of the DPP victory creates a wholly new political landscape. The party had never before held a parliamentary majority, and now it has secured 68 of the 113 seats. In the presidential contest, Tsai Ing-wen managed to gain 56% of the vote in a three-way competition. By comparison, Chen Shui-bian was elected in 2000 with a 39% plurality and reelected in 2004 with just 50.11% of the vote in a controversial outcome that set off months of turmoil. This time the DPP victory is total and incontrovertible.
- · The election results should put an end to some international observers' view of the Taiwan-China issue as a remnant of the Chinese civil war of the 1940s between the KMT and the Communist Party. The KMT is now virtually out of the picture, and looking at Taiwan as a "renegade province" no longer makes sense (if it ever did). It becomes harder to advocate abandoning a fully functioning democracy than a historical accident.
- · Even the "unification" vs. "independence" dichotomy now seems outdated. The Taiwanese have demonstrated that they have absolutely no interest in unification, but at the same time "independence" rhetoric has become irrelevant. The DPP accepts the national name Republic of China and national flag, and does propose to overturn the existing Constitution. Independence is not viewed as something that needs to be sought, because Taiwan already exists as an independent sovereign entity.
- · It is uncertain whether the KMT can ever recover. There are no credible future leaders currently identifiable. With the DPP controlling almost every local government and now the central government and legislature, there is even little opportunity for new prospective KMT leaders to gain experience and public exposure. Younger voters are overwhelmingly pro-DPP. If the KMT is to ever make a comeback, it will have to be after wholesale reform and the adoption of a more Taiwan-centric rather than China-focused policy orientation.
- · All of this presents a big headache for the CCP, which had invested so much in developing ties with the KMT. How to deal with the new situation, especially when Tsai Ing-wen seems determined not to give China any reason to feel "provoked?" Resort to intimidation and bluster will only further alienate the Taiwan electorate. Is Xi Jinping flexible and practical enough to come up with a more effective new approach?
Taiwan Just Elected its First Female President. Here's Why it Matters.
By Robert A. Manning
There was little ambiguity in the landslide victory of Tsai Ing-wen and Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP): Tsai won 56.1 percent of the vote, nearly twice that of Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Eric Chu, and the DPP won sixty-eight of the 113 seats in parliament. The election victory of the DPP, whose charter includes the goal of independence from China, is a political earthquake with large and still uncertain consequences for Taiwan's economy, society and politics, for cross-Strait relations, and, not least, for the US-China-Taiwan triangle.
In an Asia where female leaders are not that unusual, Tsai is a rare case of an independent leader who is not part of a family dynasty. Tsai's victory gives Taiwan its first female leader, it also marks another first: the DPP's majority in the Legislative Yuan is the first time since 1949 that the legislature has not been dominated by the KMT.
Tsai's sweeping victory reflects a sense of malaise after eight years of KMT rule under Ma Ying-jeou, one in which Taiwan's economy grew dependent on mainland China. Taiwan-in the 1980s considered one of the "Four Tiger" industrializing economies along with Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea-has seen its growth sag to 1 percent in 2015. Youth unemployment is at 13 percent and housing prices and accessibility are major concerns, as are technological competitiveness and viability of small businesses.
Under the Ma administration, cross-Strait ties, all but non-existent before 2008, blossomed. Travel, tourism, communications, and not least of all, trade and investment mushroomed. Roughly 25 percent of Taiwan's trade is now with China, its largest trading partner. Officially, Taiwanese businesses have invested at least $60 billion in China. Unofficially, the number is as high as $200 billion. Much of Taiwan's vibrant electronics industry has shifted production to the mainland. As many as a million Taiwanese live in China, most in the Shanghai area.
But average Taiwanese, particularly the youth, did not feel the benefits of this cross-Strait economic activity. Ma's controversial trade deals with China sparked the Sunflower protest movement in 2014.
An intriguing question raised by Tsai's victory is whether it is simply a case of "throw the bums out," or if it reflects a generational shift, with younger native Taiwanese becoming more prominent and those from the mainland, the core of the KMT, getting eclipsed. Does it blend economic grievances with a growing sense of "Taiwan identity" and greater distance from mainland China? According to a recent poll by Taiwan's National Chengchi University, a record 59 percent said they identified as Taiwanese, while only 34 percent said they were both Taiwanese and Chinese. This suggests that fewer and fewer now consider themselves Chinese first and foremost.
Beijing will be watching this trend closely. Concern about Taiwan's fate has risen to a fever pitch as it became more evident that the DPP would win. Beijing's concerns about a probable DPP victory paved the way for Chinese President Xi Jinping's unprecedented meeting with Ma in Singapore last November.
Beijing's heavy-handed warnings had backfired in past elections. This time, Beijing sought to emphasize the positive: continue the "One China, two Interpretations" (known as the 1992 consensus) and cross-Strait relations can still thrive.
Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, warned that the DPP victory "poses new challenges to cross-Strait relations" and underscored Beijing's opposition to "separatists." Concern was also obvious in the US response to the DPP victory: "We share with the Taiwan people a profound interest in the continuation of cross-Strait peace and stability," State Department spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.
The delicate political ballet has begun. For her part, Tsai in her victory speech vowed to "work towards maintaining the status quo for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." She emphasized: "Both sides of the Strait have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction."
"We must ensure that no provocations or accidents take place," she added.
As if in response to Tsai, China's Taiwan Affairs Office, while warning against any moves toward independence, said, "We are willing to strengthen contact and exchange with any parties and groups that recognize that the two sides belong to one China."
Tsai has been cautious to neither dispute nor embrace the 1992 consensus. She said ambiguously during her campaign that the 1992 consensus is "one option."
Beijing, Taiwan, and Washington have no interest in escalating tensions in cross-Strait relations. All three have their plates full. For Tsai, her success or failure will be measured by how far she will go to reform and rejuvenate the economy, and address social concerns such as unemployment, housing, and health care.
A key question will be how much political flexibility is present on both sides of the Strait. Tsai seeks more international space for Taiwan and wants to diversify its economy. Beijing could seek accommodation by, for example, finding a term that would allow Taiwan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Taiwan is a member economy of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) under the name "Chinese Taipei." In other fora it has used "Taipei, China." Whatever the formula to fudge the issue of sovereignty, Taiwan will remain de facto independent, but meeting halfway could help create a new normal for cross-Strait stability.
Robert A. Manning is a Senior Fellow in the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.
In an Asia where female leaders are not that unusual, Tsai is a rare case of an independent leader who is not part of a family dynasty. Tsai's victory gives Taiwan its first female leader, it also marks another first: the DPP's majority in the Legislative Yuan is the first time since 1949 that the legislature has not been dominated by the KMT.
Tsai's sweeping victory reflects a sense of malaise after eight years of KMT rule under Ma Ying-jeou, one in which Taiwan's economy grew dependent on mainland China. Taiwan-in the 1980s considered one of the "Four Tiger" industrializing economies along with Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea-has seen its growth sag to 1 percent in 2015. Youth unemployment is at 13 percent and housing prices and accessibility are major concerns, as are technological competitiveness and viability of small businesses.
Under the Ma administration, cross-Strait ties, all but non-existent before 2008, blossomed. Travel, tourism, communications, and not least of all, trade and investment mushroomed. Roughly 25 percent of Taiwan's trade is now with China, its largest trading partner. Officially, Taiwanese businesses have invested at least $60 billion in China. Unofficially, the number is as high as $200 billion. Much of Taiwan's vibrant electronics industry has shifted production to the mainland. As many as a million Taiwanese live in China, most in the Shanghai area.
But average Taiwanese, particularly the youth, did not feel the benefits of this cross-Strait economic activity. Ma's controversial trade deals with China sparked the Sunflower protest movement in 2014.
An intriguing question raised by Tsai's victory is whether it is simply a case of "throw the bums out," or if it reflects a generational shift, with younger native Taiwanese becoming more prominent and those from the mainland, the core of the KMT, getting eclipsed. Does it blend economic grievances with a growing sense of "Taiwan identity" and greater distance from mainland China? According to a recent poll by Taiwan's National Chengchi University, a record 59 percent said they identified as Taiwanese, while only 34 percent said they were both Taiwanese and Chinese. This suggests that fewer and fewer now consider themselves Chinese first and foremost.
Beijing will be watching this trend closely. Concern about Taiwan's fate has risen to a fever pitch as it became more evident that the DPP would win. Beijing's concerns about a probable DPP victory paved the way for Chinese President Xi Jinping's unprecedented meeting with Ma in Singapore last November.
Beijing's heavy-handed warnings had backfired in past elections. This time, Beijing sought to emphasize the positive: continue the "One China, two Interpretations" (known as the 1992 consensus) and cross-Strait relations can still thrive.
Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, warned that the DPP victory "poses new challenges to cross-Strait relations" and underscored Beijing's opposition to "separatists." Concern was also obvious in the US response to the DPP victory: "We share with the Taiwan people a profound interest in the continuation of cross-Strait peace and stability," State Department spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.
The delicate political ballet has begun. For her part, Tsai in her victory speech vowed to "work towards maintaining the status quo for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." She emphasized: "Both sides of the Strait have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction."
"We must ensure that no provocations or accidents take place," she added.
As if in response to Tsai, China's Taiwan Affairs Office, while warning against any moves toward independence, said, "We are willing to strengthen contact and exchange with any parties and groups that recognize that the two sides belong to one China."
Tsai has been cautious to neither dispute nor embrace the 1992 consensus. She said ambiguously during her campaign that the 1992 consensus is "one option."
Beijing, Taiwan, and Washington have no interest in escalating tensions in cross-Strait relations. All three have their plates full. For Tsai, her success or failure will be measured by how far she will go to reform and rejuvenate the economy, and address social concerns such as unemployment, housing, and health care.
A key question will be how much political flexibility is present on both sides of the Strait. Tsai seeks more international space for Taiwan and wants to diversify its economy. Beijing could seek accommodation by, for example, finding a term that would allow Taiwan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Taiwan is a member economy of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) under the name "Chinese Taipei." In other fora it has used "Taipei, China." Whatever the formula to fudge the issue of sovereignty, Taiwan will remain de facto independent, but meeting halfway could help create a new normal for cross-Strait stability.
Robert A. Manning is a Senior Fellow in the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.
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