Want to know what Beijing's plans for the Taiwan S.A.R. will be? Look at Hong Kong trying to get universal suffrage for the 2017 election (Straits Times)....
TENSION between China and Hong Kong over the arrangements for the election of the city's Chief Executive in 2017 has heightened to the point where Beijing did the unprecedented - it conducted two military exercises within a week to show who is boss.Three decades ago Beijing promised that the Chief executive would be universally elected. In 2007 it moved that promise back a decade. Now it is struggling to avoid having to fulfill it. Viewing this sequence of events, does anyone out there imagine Beijing can be trusted with Taiwan's democracy? Although surely the problem of suppressing Taiwan's democracy must vex Beijing....
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From Hong Kong's standpoint, the crux of the election issue is whether the SAR will have genuine universal suffrage - the Chief Executive is elected by a 1,200-member committee now - a promise Beijing made three decades ago.
From Beijing's point of view, this is not just about formulating an electoral system but also about defending China's sovereignty and security. It contends that the election of a democrat as Chief Executive - a possibility that cannot be ruled out in unfettered universal suffrage - would endanger the country's sovereignty and security. This is because it sees Hong Kong's democrats as pawns of foreign powers hostile to China.
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3 comments:
I can only read the first few paragraphs due to the paywall, but the article seems to have been written by someone who is not exactly up to speed on the issue. First of all, if the PRC has held military drills in or near HK, they have not been reported on extensively. So I can't believe that they have served any intimidation purpose. People here know well enough that Beijing could march in and make things ugly at any time. I think they rely more on an assumption that, for the time being, Beijing would not dare.
As for the election, the CY Leung government is dragging its feet over the start of a consultation period on political reform. That is issue number one. Issue number two is the question of whether a screening mechanism would exist for candidates. Beijing would prefer a screening mechanism to be in place. In fact, from what various pro-Beijing politicians here have implied, and from statements of various Chinese officials, such as NPC Law Committee Chairman Qiao Xiaoyang, I think Beijing would be fine with a system where everyone could vote for the Chief Executive as long as they could ensure that only Beijing-backed candidates were running. Depending on your own beliefs of what constitutes universal suffrage, such an election might be up to standard. The question is over whether this sort of election would be democratic. Pro-Beijing shill Elsie Leung, who is Vice-Chairman of the NPC Basic Law Committee said yesterday that she thought that HK people would be stupid to elect a candidate that did not meet Qiao Xiaoyang's criteria of "love Hong Kong, love China and not oppose the central government." And, I think that most people here would agree that it would be very hard for a candidate who was too outspoken about democracy to govern effectively. But there are several more moderate pan-democrats who could probably get along with the central government if Beijing were openminded enough to allow them to run.
Unfortunately, the time is running short to adequately prepare for 2017. Political reform does not happen overnight. And CY Leung is proving himself to be almost a HK Ma Ying-joke. He is an ineffective leader that doesn't really stand for much and doesn't seem to know how to do much besides toe the pro-establishment line. Such is life.
Depending on your own beliefs of what constitutes universal suffrage, such an election might be up to standard.
Yes, it reminds me of Kenya in the 80s, where anyone could run as long as they belonged to the KANU party. But the problem is is that authoritarians eventually get around to feeling even that is too much freedom....
Thanks for the mini-analyses.
The PLA is garrisoned in HK to protect the island from external threats. Favor of the Chinese taxpayer. HKger have it too easy. (Verbatim out of a regular Chinese Joe's mouth)
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