Brookings is hosting a big seminar on Jan 17 to discuss the elections. Both pro-Ma and pro-Tsai speakers and discussants. Although most of the names will be familiar at least, with the next president known, they might have something new to say. Click on READ MORE for the info....
A CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AND CENTER FOR NORTHEAST ASIAN POLICY STUDIES EVENT
Taiwan’s Presidential and Legislative Elections: Implications for Taiwan, the United States, and Cross-Strait Relations
Event Summary
On January 17, the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at Brookings (CNAPS) and the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a seminar analyzing the results of Taiwan’s January 14 presidential and legislative elections. The outcomes of the elections remain uncertain, and the results will have impact not only on the daily lives of Taiwan’s people, but also on relations with China and the United States.
The discussion will feature speakers from across Taiwan’s political spectrum, as well as experts from the United States, China, and the United Kingdom. Panelists will analyze the results of the election, identify pressing policy issues for the winning presidential candidate, and explore how the results may affect cross-Strait relations and the United States.
After each panel, speakers will take audience questions.
Participants
9:00 AM -- Introduction
Richard C. Bush III
Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies
Bonnie Glaser
Senior Fellow, Freeman Chair in China Studies and Senior Associate, Pacific Forum
Center for Strategic and International Studies
9:15 AM -- Panel 1: Analysis of the Presidential and Legislative Elections
Moderator: Edward McCord
Director, Sigur Center for Asian Studies and Director, Taiwan Education and Research Program
The George Washington University
Antonio Chiang
Columnist
Apple Daily
Dafydd Fell
Senior Lecturer in Taiwan Studies and Deputy Director, Centre of Taiwan Studies
School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London
Chu Yun-han
Distinguished Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science
Academia Sinica
10:45 AM -- Panel 2: Lessons from the Past, and Policy Issues for the New Administration
Moderator: Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
Professor of History, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service
Georgetown University
David Wei-Feng Huang
Associate Research Fellow, Institute of European and American Studies
Academia Sinica
Douglas Paal
Vice President for Studies
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kao Su-Po
Executive Director, The 21st Century Foundation
Associate Professor of Law, Shih Hsin University
12:15 PM -- Keynote Address: The Taiwan Election and What It Means
Richard C. Bush III
Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies
1:45 PM -- Panel 3: Implications for the United States and Cross-Strait Relations
Moderator: Cynthia Watson
Professor of Strategy
National War College
Bonnie Glaser
Senior Fellow, Freeman Chair in China Studies and Senior Associate, Pacific Forum
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Alexander Chieh-Cheng Huang
Assistant Professor
Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
Lai I-chung
Executive Committee Member
Taiwan Thinktank
Chu Shulong
Professor, Institute of International Strategy and Development
Tsinghua University
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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.
4 comments:
As much as my support for her and with the ehthusiasm I observed in her road-show rallies, I am not feeling optimistic about Tsai's election at this moment. My prediction for the outcome on Jan. 14 is this: Ma 47%, Tsai 46%, and Soong 7%. This just serves a purpose to reverse-engineer why Tsai might lose.
Ma's 47% is consited of core blue (46%) and swing vote (1%). The habbitual voters have voted for Blue since Big Bang. They will still do that this year.
Green's core increases from 41% to 43% this year, my estimate. Tsai gets extra 3% from the swing vote.
Soong gets 7% from the swing vote.
The swing vote is 11% of all votes, consistently through past four presidential elections. It's very difficult to predict whom the swing vote would go to if there is only Ma and Tsai. Now there is Soong and he attracts the swing votes by focusing on domestic economical isssues, such as ADSL fee. This helps Ma more than Tsai because it reduces uncertainty for Ma. (No matter what all polls said. I stand by my own opinion: Soong's participation hurts Tsai greatly. I belive that is exactly his intention. I don't buy those drama played between him and Ma.)
Tsai's road-show compaigns in the last week have regressed back to old-style, old-people, and old-slogan convention. They totally lack of the creativity and attraction in the 'three little pigs' movement.
This bothers me very very much. In the Taipei mayor election 2008, I watched from a sidewalk Hau's parade, which employed sexy models from a top modeling agency performing role play. I saw many young couples walking with their kids in the parade. It was fun and family-oriented. That bothered me :) Then I went to Su's final-night convention. It just did not click. The whole night was boring and tedious. And mainly traditional supporters showed up there. My heart sank that night. Now I have seen Tsai has repeated the same mistake.
I do hope Tsai hire a professional show director to create 'shows' that are attractive to young professionals, young couples with kids,... i.e. the swing voters. Crying out for freedom, justice, and equality can still be done in a fun and family-oriented fashion.
I wonder why Tsai hasn't waved her degree from the London School of ECONOMICS around the same way Lien was so keen to showcase his degree in Political Science?
Taiwanese like degrees. Taiwanese are nervous about the economy. You'd think they would feel Tsai might be better qualified to help Taiwan's economy.
Tsai should stop compaigning for one day and watches Iron Lady a hundred times that day. Then she might be able to radiate.
Lorenzo look online, Facebook for young people focused Tsai campaign events. You can look for 小英同學會. Cheers!
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