Study Argues What I've been saying for a year and a half

A new study at the US National Defense University catches up to what I've been saying since Ma's "peace in our time" approach was implemented. The TT says:

A new study by a China security expert at the US National Defense University cautioned that there might be a distinct downside to deeper cross-strait rapprochement between Taiwan and China.

Closer ties between the two sides could raise the prospect of “fundamental changes in China’s security challenges,” its author Michael Glosny said.

Glosny said that while other countries would be relieved by the rapprochement, many would also worry that a rising China no longer constrained by a focus on Taiwan would use its increased power to “challenge their interests elsewhere in Asia.”

Yes, it is indeed a brilliant insight that peace in the Taiwan Strait will simply lead to more tension elsewhere, because tension is displaced....one I noted 18 months ago:

The other lesson to be learned here is the failure to make the cross-regional connections between Beijing's expansionist policies in the Strait and elsewhere. The election of Ma Ying-jeou did not 'reduce tension.' Rather, the KMT's move to put Taiwan into China's orbit, thus 'reducing Taiwan-China tensions', has given China the confidence and opportunity to ramp up tension elsewhere.

Tensions are not reduced. They are merely displaced. And the more tension is 'reduced' here in the Beijing-Taipei, the more it will appear elsewhere. Because the cause of "tension" isn't Taiwan's democracy, but China's expansionism.

Where's the article on me in the Taipei Times? :)

The authors of the study appear to believe that the tension in the area is caused by China, which is the correct belief. Let's hope this realization is currently sweeping our analyst class. It should be clear to all observers that the problems between the DPP Administration and Beijing were not caused by Chen "provoking" China but by China's demand to annex Taiwan. Hopefully the realization that China's territorial demands are the source of tension in its relationships with other nations will begin to include Taiwan.

Another observation: because China is the source of the problem, only change in China can bring peace. Right now, unless China changes its policies, we are headed for a series of wars along its frontiers. How can we get China to change its policies and attitudes?

REF: Original study here.
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Daily Links:

• A Japanese scholar with more documentary evidence that the Chinese never thought of the Senkakus as "Chinese."
• Why US-China relations will get tougher.
• Taiwan's science council to monitor volcanoes in the Tatun Mountain group here in Taiwan.
  
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• Brookings on the Quadrennial Defense Review in Taiwan. Note that Taiwan's FY2011 defense budget is 2.15% of GDP -- remember Ma promising 3%?
  
• Thai-Cambodia border conflict intensifies.
  

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