Carpenter on Taiwan

Ted Galen Carpenter has an excellent piece in WSJ covering the public reaction to the accession of Ma and the failure of his policies, and a good takedown of the conventional wisdom in Beijing and Washington that Ma's election was a repudiation of the DPP's pro-independence politics -- it is worth noting again that Ma had to promise not to betray the island to China in order to get elected, a clear indication of the way the public feels about annexing the island to China. Some of it is a mite uniformed -- Chinese tourists have been coming here for years, Mr. Carpenter -- but on the whole, after so many abusive pieces from Carpenter on Taiwan, this article represents a welcome change and a surprising sensitivity. Many thanks, Dr. C. An excerpt:

The key to maintaining the "Ma thaw" will be showing that Mr. Ma's approach can succeed in extracting important concessions from Beijing -- particularly given the ongoing evolution in public opinion regarding the mainland. Public opinion surveys in Taiwan taken since the election confirm the public's hostility to reunification with China. In an October survey published by the Global Views Survey Research Center, 67.5% of respondents disagreed with the proposition that Taiwan and the mainland should eventually unify. Only 19.5% favored that position. Conversely, 50.6% said Taiwan should ultimately become a new, officially independent country, and only 34.1% disagreed with that course. Opposition to reunification and support for independence were both significantly higher than they were in a similar 2006 poll.

Note that Carpenter, while correcting the conventional wisdom on Taiwan, nevertheless argues for the Establishment line that what China needs to do now is make concessions to Taiwan to win over the Taiwan electorate. Yet the evidence suggests that the softer approach that China has taken in the last decade, since bombarding the waters around Taiwan with missiles, has not resulted in increased public acceptance of Chinese rule over Taiwan (part of that must be credited to the DPP for its resolute efforts to build local identity). Quite the opposite -- as everyone is wont to point out, the young identify with Taiwan, not China, and the poll data Carpenter provides support an overall rejection of Beijing's annexation drive.

Supporters for this approach seems to argue that if Ma obtains concessions from China, the electorate will respect him and have warm fuzzies about Beijing -- but the evidence shows that the electorate recognizes that such overtures imply a sellout of Taiwan. The contradictions in Ma's policies ought to be obvious -- each time he approaches Beijing for a deal he gives the impression of selling out the island, irrespective of Beijing's response.

This suggests two things. First, concessions will only reinforce the idea that Ma is selling out the island -- concessions in fact may backfire by being interpreted as proof that Ma is in cahoots with Beijing. Second, the public here is wiser in chinese ways then commentators give them credit for -- the Chinese aren't going to fool anyone here with sweet talk and concessions -- as if locals don't have any insight into Chinese culture -- so why should they hand them out? Such actions are mere political theatre aimed at swaying foreign observers, and providing them with ammunition they can use in their arguments with each other. One only needs to look at the Taiwanese business community in China, where years of contact with Chinese has not resulted in any great surge of pro-China support among them. The fact is that Beijing could make the concessions that the US political establishment wants, and it could have no effect on the electorate, while worsening Ma's position at home.

HUGELY INFORMATIVE: Taiwan Link has a great, long review of Taiwan's four decade-long attempt to obtain submarines.

PURELY FOR FUN: Exhibition on Taiwan's recovery from Japan in China

[Taiwan]