Chen Again

Lawrence Chung in the SCMP makes an interesting point about Chen Shui-bian, one I was making a couple of weeks ago when the money-laundering story broke:

Although the loyalists said the DPP's participation had nothing to do with supporting Mr Chen, some party bosses said they would not join it because they were afraid it would turn into a rally of support for him. Mr Chen, meanwhile, released a sensational statement on Thursday, asking supporters to join the anti-Ma protest, a statement political observers said was aimed at shifting the focus and turning the probe against him and his family into an independence issue. "There have been all kinds of mud-slinging, distortions of facts and smears against me and my family, all aiming to destroy our reputation," he said, adding that the bribe-taking accusation by the KMT was a kind of political persecution aimed at "totally eradicating the Taiwan-centric consciousness".

Baseless allegations from the KMT and some broadcasters have only served to back up Mr Chen's claim that the KMT is persecuting him. "As long as he wins sympathy from 10 per cent of supporters, the DPP will be forced to side with him," political commentator Antonio Chiang wrote in Apple Daily. Legal experts said that without substantial proof of money-laundering, it would be extremely difficult for the judicial authorities to lock Mr Chen up.

"Chen Shui-bian is smart enough to know that it would be impossible for him to earn US$21 million during his eight years in office and thus he declared the funds were left over from previous campaign donations," said law expert Fan Li-tai. As such, Mr Chen would only be guilty of failing to declare his assets, punishable by a fine of up to NT$300,000. "Prosecutors have to find evidence showing the funds were laundered in order to charge the ex-president," he said.

Experts said it could be easier for prosecutors to collect evidence to charge Mr Chen with embezzlement over a special state fund, the case for which his wife is being tried. In their 2006 indictment against Wu, prosecutors said they had enough evidence to charge Mr Chen with the same crime but for his presidential immunity at the time.

While the presentation by the SCMP more or less assumes Chen's money laundering guilt, it does make a couple of substantial points. Note that (1) it will be hard to convict Chen of money laundering (where is the money trail back to government funds?) and (2) the fine for not revealing assets is ridiculously low. For US$20 million in unreported assets Chen pays a US$9,000 fine. Politics -- nice work if you can get it.

Navigating the issue Chen's reaction of wrapping himself in the Taiwan independence flag is more difficult. There's no question that Chen has abused that, but there is also no question that the KMT is out to get Greens using the legal apparatus, and no question that Chen was an especial target of their wrath. The problem with Chen's approach is that it plays into the KMT claim that Chen is somehow representative of the independence movement.

Fortunately the rally on Saturday demonstrated that Chen's problems are merely a pimple on the face of Taiwan history. Taiwan News editorialized on the rally, observing:

The force of Saturday's rally shows that a sizable core of "Taiwan-centric" citizens have moved beyond "star politics" and are able to make their own value judgements and focus on present and future challenges instead of being obsessed with the past.

Moreover, the themes designed by the Taiwan Society, in consultation with other Taiwan-centric groups and the DPP, struck a resounding chord with tens of thousands of Taiwan people by spotlighting the greatest worries spawned by the Ma government and highlighted their desire for a return to a "Taiwan-centric" course of economic development with social justice, renewed defense of Taiwan's sovereignty and the right of self-determination and to cleanse our political system of all types of corruption through legislative and institutional reform.

The evident success of the "People's Outcry" alliance to manifest "the power of civil society" with the DPP playing a supporting role without the distraction of ambitious"stars" opens the way for the rebuilding of a progressive and reasoned "united front" among Taiwan-centric and civic reform and social movement groups to "monitor" the KMT regime.

Finally, the rally meaningfully highlighted a long overdue theme that the Taiwan people should accept their responsibility as "citizens" to take control over their own destiny and pay their own way in the struggle to defend their right of self-determination and economic, social and political human rights and not depend on the "goodwill" of "stars" or other authorities.

Chen was not a presence at the rally, which instead focused on Taiwan, Ma's rapid moves to put the island into China's orbit, and the economy. Taiwan News further observes:

Moreover, the KMT has failed to realize that its "great China mentality" is out of kilter with Taiwan's mainstream public opinion, only 10 percent of whom support unification and 65 percent want tighter controls on cross-strait trade and economic intercourse, as shown by a poll of 1,065 Taiwan adults released by the official Mainland Affairs Council Thursday.

With the global economy tanking, it will be interesting to watch how Ma handles the economic pain Taiwan is likely to experience. More will have to be done than free trade zones (the eternal panacea) and attempting to get consumers to spend. Note that voters are not very tolerant -- for all the complaints about collapse and lack of food, etc, the economy will still grow over 4% this year. What would they do if there was an actual recession with negative growth for two consecutive quarters?

And let's not forget: China has rejected Ma's attempt to gain concessions by the "diplomatic truce" which essentially amounts to foregoing independent, positive diplomacy. Mayhap things will change, but for now, it appears Ma is faltering on every front.

[Taiwan]