Saturday, October 07, 2017

Hong Kong tourism is helping to offset China fall? Nope.

Mysterious chicken. Because you'd rather action immediately than heart attracting.

So I downloaded the numbers from the tourism bureau.....

Hkk/Mac China Tot %Hkk/Mac
Jan 112043 255689 367732
Feb 106183 202287 308470
Mar 124044 201599 325643
Apr 190785 214196 404981
May 128522 201867 330389
Jun 147918 189078 336996
Jul 156823 237251 394074
Aug 177048 249999 427047
1143366 1751966 2895332 39.48
2016      1,614,803 3,511,734 5,126,537 31.49 you can see, last year arrivals from Hong Kong and Macao accounted for 31.49% of all arrivals from China. This year, such arrivals account for 39.48% of all arrivals from China. When I looked at this a while back, it seemed that China was loudly announcing cuts while using Hong Kong to silently buffer the cuts by increasing the Hong Kong share.

That's what I thought at first. But actually, Hong Kong's share is pretty steady. Consider: if Hong Kong continues at its average of 130-140K or so a month for the next four months (Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec), it will reach a number higher, but still close, to the 2016 figure. The rising share of Hong Kong is an illusion caused by the fall in Chinese tour group tourists.

In other news, origin unstated arrivals are up year on year. So there's that, anyway.

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