East Asia and Global Security

Two articles on global security and East Asia crossed my path this week. The first is from Japan Focus, and discusses the emerging alliance structure aimed at China that is growing now in Northeast Asia.

Secondly, by explicitly "affirming the common strategic interests and security benefits embodied in their respective alliance relationships with the United States, and committing to strengthening trilateral cooperation," Japan and Australia are signaling an overturn to a half century of East Asian security architecture. An anti-Soviet system of US-dominated but uncoordinated bilateral alliances is being replaced by a nascent anti-China US-dominated multilateral alliance system. The fact that South Korea, now moving closer to China and unpicking its joint military command with the US, is not yet included in this new arrangement, warns us that the East Asian politics behind this new tripartite security architecture is decidedly wobbly.

South Korea's drift into the China orbit will be viewed by scholars of the future as yet another of the many defeats the US suffered under the Bush Administration. Meanwhile over at Peking Duck the redoubtable Raj found an argument for more engagement from the world in the Taiwan Straits issue:

It is time for the developed world, which has enjoyed fruitful results from globalization and the ability to influence China, to put this issue into a larger context. For more than 50 years, America has enjoyed the patent of discussing Taiwan's future, but now other Western countries should break its monopoly. The island is not only important to China, but also to the world.

It is long past time for the world to get involved.....

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)] [Japan]

Gangsta Pap 2: Would-be Coppola at TVBS fired

It's a Sicilian message. It means Luca Brasi sleeps with the fishes.

All of the Chinese and English newspapers are running front page reports today with the story of how TVBS reporters helped film a mobster threatening his capo (see UPDATE below as of 9 pm 3/29). The pro-Blue China Post reports:

Axed were Shih Chen-kang for taping the video and his chief Chang Yu-kun for lying about the news source, a TVBS statement said.

Two TVBS editing supervisors in Taipei were disciplined for failure to ascertain the source whom Shih, the correspondent in Nantou, and Chang claimed was Chou Cheng-pao, a gangster who displayed weapons while threatening to kill his mob boss Liu Jui-lung.

Pan Tsu-yin and Sun Chia-jui were each given one demerit. Sun was relieved of her concurrent job as city editor.

The Taichung correspondents told the supervisors the source could not be identified. The two supervisors then edited the tape, which was claimed to have been produced by Chou Cheng-pao himself.

The pro-Green Taipei Times emphasized the responsibility of the organization as a whole for the affair, which among other things provided a fascinating glimpse into the way the news is created on Taiwan:

In its statement, TVBS said an internal investigation had found that Shi had helped Chou film the video.

TVBS news director Pan Tzu-yin (潘祖蔭) and vice news director Sun Chia-juei (孫嘉蕊) were also given citations for their lack of oversight, the statement added.

According to the TVBS, Shi explained that Chou asked him for help on Saturday afternoon. He decided to make the video because he found it newsworthy, the station cited Shi as saying.

Shi asked Chang not to tell TVBS managers about how he got the footage, TVBS said.

Yang Ying-lan (楊英蘭), an official with the National Communications Commission (NCC), disagreed with TVBS' position that the two reporters were solely responsible for the incident.

"The footage has been broadcasted again and again," she said. "How can the management at the station get away with simply saying that it was just the reporters' fault?"

When asked if the incident will cause the station to loose its broadcast license, Yang said the penalty will ultimately be determined by the commission's members.

If the commission finds the Chou video to be a serious violation, the station will be asked to stop broadcasting for three days.

A while back TVBS came under fire from the DPP for being a 100% foreign-owned Chinese tool, whose Chairman once ran the Hong Kong broadcasting authority. TVBS is in blatant violation of the media laws, but the DPP did nothing until it got out of hand, as I noted back in 2005. It would be nice if the GIO shut down TVBS and the people who collaborated with the gangster did time. The problem is that having failed to do it all the other times, the government has left itself open to the charge that closing TVBS is simply an act of partisan politics.

In addition to the usual questions of the role of media in society, this affair also highlights the critical problem of the lack of a civic culture, and the relational nature of ethics in Chinese society. What the reporter did was both unethical and illegal. Nobody seemed to care until, as the Liberty Times pointed out this morning, a police investigation of the tape showed that it hadn't been delivered to the mailbox as TVBS claimed. It's obvious that this kind of thing is only the tip of the iceberg at TVBS. There must be many similar "reports" that are unethical collaborative affairs between the reporter and his news source.

It is hard to say what the scariest part of this whole sordid affair was. The complicity of the media? Well, it is TVBS. Was it the mobster with an itch to be a movie star? Not really. For me, it was yet another instance of the amazing ability of suspects to evade lock up. The China Post gave the following background on the murdered boss:

Lin, 47, was shot at a teahouse in downtown Taichung last Friday. He succumbed the following day.

He was ambushed a few days after he had been released on bail. He went into hiding in China after the kidnapping of the city council speaker.

On October 25, Lin was arrested by Chinese police at Shenzhen near Hong Kong. After a successful negotiation, Taichung police had Lin extradited on January 4 last year. He was indicted on July 11.

Prosecutors demanded that Lin be sentenced to death, but a judge released him on bail.

Released a mob boss on bail? Disgusting.

UPDATE: The gangster was caught this afternoon.

Taichung police is interrogating Chou Cheng-pao, a member of the Celestial Way Gang, who also claimed in the TV footage he was responsible for three recent shooting incidents in central Taiwan.

Chou hid in a deserted gravel yard when police made the arrest at 4:45pm. He is wearing a bullet-proof vest and in posession of four pistols, police said.

The footage, shot by TVBS reporter Shi Chen-kang, prompted the cable TV company to fire Shi and his supervisor Chang Yu-kun Wednesday night on grounds they claimed it was provided by an anonymous source.

Opposition politicians have cited the footage as evidence of the government's ineptitude in fighting crime after TVBS aired it Monday evening and other cable TV outlets followed suit the next day.

As I said in the earlier post:

But what you won't read on ESWN is that TVBS is Chinese-owned and 100% supportive of the KMT and China -- it is a pro-Blue station to the core. A propaganda staple of the Blues is that Taiwan's society is in a mess -- and of course, videos threatening violence and gangster killings are proof positive that the propaganda is correct. What a coincidence, eh? This gangster is so useful, if he didn't exist, he'd have to be invented.

This isn't just some reporter being stupid. He knew full well what he was shooting and why he was shooting it, and how it would look and be used by his fellow travelers at TVBS. This is a High Context society in which everyone knows the score and what is expected of them.

UPDATE II: The Chinese language newspapers reported it yesterday, and the English language papers have it today. TVBS lied when it said it found out about the fakery through its own investigation:

[TVBS] said its own investigation showed that the film was shot by its reporter Shih Chen-kang and that Shih's superior Chang Yu-kun, had helped.

But the National Police Agency yesterday refuted TVBS' statement, and said the police were suspicious about the video footage before TVBS admitted misconduct.

Hou said when the police were analyzing the video footage, they found the camera was held in a stable manner, which indicated it might have been produced by professionals.

In addition to the professional shooting of the video which roused suspicion, Hou said that two fingerprints collected from the motel where the film was shot were not Chou's fingerprints. The police also discovered that the envelope which the video was placed in had no stamps on it, he added.

The police contacted TVBS for more information, Hou said, adding that he received a phone call from a TVBS supervisor on Wednesday and confirmed police suspicions that the video might have been produced by media professionals.

Some local reporters and audience members also criticized TVBS for immediately firing the two reporters before the controversy was cleared up, as they suspected that the company has tried to deny its responsibility over the negligence by shifting the blame onto the two employees. At least three demonstrations were staged outside TVBS headquarters in Taipei yesterday against the video controversy.

The government now has a robust excuse to shut this station down. Let's see if they can find the spine.

[Taiwan] [media] [TVBS]

East Coast Highway to Destroy Taiwan's Last Frontier?

The spectacular Suhua Highway. Plans are to shove a major expressway through here.

Asia Sentinel, a widely lniked site that reports on news from all over Asia, has a good article on the plans to drive a highway from Suao to Hualien through some of the most spectacular terrain on the island.

But this is an election year for the national legislature in December and presidency next March, so politicians need major projects to show the public and to raise money from companies for their campaigns. That is why the highway is now back on the public agenda, to be taken up by a 16-member government-appointed evaluation committee at the end of April, the last stage in the approval process. Two have come out in favor, five against and nine have not expressed an opinion.

The four-lane highway would connect two towns on the east coast, Suao and Hualien, and require 11 tunnels and 27 bridges on a route that runs through breathtaking mountains that descend into the sea. The highway would pass through eight reserves and beauty spots including the Taroko Gorge, one of the island’s main tourist sites, inflicting damage on all of them.

The bare-knuckle contest over the highway is a throwback to a pork-barrel era of politics in which the beneficiaries will be the construction firms that get the contracts, insiders who will be well compensated for land they have bought on the highway route and politicians receiving kickbacks. The huge expense and the fierce opposition of the environmental lobby are the reasons why the highway has not been built since it was first proposed in 1990.

For its supporters, the road would link Hualien to the highway network that emanates from Taipei, cutting the driving time to the capital from four hours to two and making it a more attractive destination for investors and tourists. Companies that produce goods in the town would be able to move them more quickly to domestic and foreign consumers. This influx of visitors and capital would raise the value of land and property in Hualien and bring more business to its shops, restaurants and other retail businesses.

The great environmental group Wild at Heart has long been in opposition to this project. Give them a few spare pennies if you have them, they'll put'em to good use.

[Taiwan]

Thirsty Ghosts: great new blog

David on Formosa points to a great new group blog:

It features writing and photos by Taiwan-based journalists, photographers and translators, currently writing for Newsweek, Reuters, Taipei Times, Far Eastern Economic Review, Asia Times and other publications.

[Taiwan] [media]

Was Taiwan why Adm Fallon was shifted to the Middle East

This post at China Redux leads to some very interesting information on the recent transfer of Pacific Fleet Commander Adm Fallon to the Middle East: an article from the Washington Post:

Fallon's soothing words on Iran contrasts with conventional wisdom, which is that his selection as the first Navy admiral to lead CENTCOM signals increased preparation for war with Iran. This is particularly the case given reports in the BBC and The New Yorker regarding war preparations, and since the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier battle group left Pearl Harbor to join the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower battle group already in the region.

But Fallon's history with regard to war plans vis a vis China tells a far more complex story: I have confirmed that Adm. Fallon indeed directed his planners in Hawaii not to prepare contingency "strategic" air strikes against mainland Chinese targets as part of U.S. options in a China-Taiwan contingency.

What is fascinating about this inside story about the U.S. combatant commander for Asia is not that he is some covert panda hugger now let loose to appease Iran. It is that those who have complained about Fallon's approach to China proudly report that the Pacific Fleet commander and the Pacific Air Forces commander directed their targeters to do the work that Fallon had forbid anyway.

I guess that means on Iran that there's good news in Fallon, and bad news. The bad news is that the senior military officer, the so-called combatant commander, can pursue a perfectly defensible policy of not wanting to risk a wider war with a country - China in this case -- even in defense of Taiwan. He can logically direct his contingency planners to spend their time on something more productive, given his vision of what is likely and desirable, but they go ahead and do the planning anyway.

I know the argument that the military should at least give the president the options, that planning for war helps secure the peace, that having contingency plans signals seriousness to a country and thus increases deterrence and coercion.

China Redux goes on to argue that Fallon was moved to the Middle East to get him out of the way in Asia. Very interesting all around.

[Taiwan] [US] [China]

Gangsta Pap

Our fair city has been the site of another one of those periodic outbursts of gangster violence recently. Gangsters killing each other, a world-wide affliction, is not very interesting news, but the tale did take a turn when a gangster supposedly filmed himself making threats on tape promising retaliation for the killings. ESWN has part of the story, but tonight the story took a more interesting turn when it turned out that the gangster didn't film himself -- the reporter from TVBS helped with the filming and was present during it, the evening news is reporting here. TVBS has apparently canned him (based on a TVBS taking its own initiative in investigating the reporter's claims, they say. NaCl, anyone?)

ESWN points out that gangsters have filmed themselves before, and attempts to present this as controversy of the right-to-know versus media publicity for gangsters:

There have been prior instances of Taiwan gangsters shooting their own digital videos for public consumption., and this explains why there is objection to offering publicity to gangsters. Is this news in the name of the people's right to know? Or is this encouraging worse behavior? Internationally, a similar question is whether Osama bin Ladin's videos ought to be shown on television? This is a test of finding the balance between freedom of press and media self-discipline.

Is this really a test between freedom of press and media self-discipline? Perhaps, although the reporter's involvement is blatantly illegal and is not really an information self-discipline issue. But what you won't read on ESWN is that TVBS is Chinese-owned and 100% supportive of the KMT and China -- it is a pro-Blue station to the core. A propaganda staple of the Blues is that Taiwan's society is in a mess -- and of course, videos threatening violence and gangster killings are proof positive that the propaganda is correct. What a coincidence, eh? This gangster is so useful, if he didn't exist, he'd have to be invented. Fake videos are also well known in Taiwan -- see ESWN's profile of a case from two years ago. It is too soon to say what is going on, but you can be sure the whole story ain't out there yet.

[Taiwan] [ESWN] [media] [TVBS] [Taichung]

Ma Endorses Wu for the Chairmanship

Probable KMT Presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has endorsed Wu Po-hsiung for the KMT Chairmanship election:

Ma made the announcement while he was visiting a temple in Taichung County. Ma said that because he does not holding any party or public office at present, he will support Wu as a party member, adding that he knows Wu is the best person to improve the party.

Later in the day, Ma's presidential campaign office issued a press release officially announcing Ma's support of Wu for party chairman. In the statement, Ma said that the by-election for party chairman will play a pivotal role in how the party fares in the coming legislative and 2008 presidential elections. He added that there is no need to pretend to be neutral in the battle and he urged all party comrades to pitch in their support for Wu. Ma praised Wu as having vast experience in important party and government offices, adding that Wu is well-respected for his dependability.

The news might come as a surprise to Wu's only opponent in the coming by-election, KMT Legislator Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), because she had earlier rejected a media report that said Ma would choose an appropriate time to publicly announce his support for Wu. Hung said that the news must have been fabricated by Wu's desperate aides and that it could hurt both Wu and Ma. Saying the chairmanship should not be a proxy war, Hung said the future chairman must not be partial toward any particular presidential candidate so as to ensure fairness in the presidential primary and party management in the future. Speaking of the race for chairman, she also stressed the importance of a fair election to the party's image.

The election is pretty much a foregone conclusion, since Hung is not a serious candidate. Still, Ma's main rival Wang Jin-pyng, manuvering for a longshot crack at the Presidential ticket, refused to endorse either.

Wu, the scion of a Taoyuan faction, is the highest-ranking Hakka in the KMT. In 2000 he became the first major KMT figure to visit China openly, arriving for a world Hakka congress. One of the axes of KMT control is an alliance between mainlanders and Hakkas to keep the Hoklo (Taiwanese-speaking) membership of the party under control. Wu has consistently sided with the mainlander core of the KMT -- in September of 2000, when the KMT voted to strip former President Lee Teng-hui of his party membership after he failed to support perennial loser Lien Chan in the Presidential election, Wu sided with the mainlanders. In addition to being a splendid example of how the KMT invented the ethnic politics that all claim to detest here, Wu is also one of the island's more prominent Buddhists, speaking at Buddhist engagements and holding high position in local Buddhist organizations. He has also been Chairman of the World Hakka Association, whatever that is.

UPDATE: Jason from Wandering to Tamshui points out in a private email that Wu's leadership will help the KMT in contested Miaoli, a Hakka stronghold.


[Taiwan] [KMT]

China to Build Supercarrier, Taiwan unveils upgraded IDF

A Korean newspaper is reporting that the Chinese are planning a 93,000 ton supercarrier, according to the widely read blog The Marmot's Hole.

According to the documents, the nuclear carrier—to be completed by 2020—is to be tasked to China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation’s Shanghai Jiangnan Shipyard [Global Security.org], which is capable of building oil tankers of 300,000 tons. The documents apparently mention that the planned carrier should be the size of the Ul’yanovsk [FAS], the planned Soviet nuclear carrier that was never completed.

If China completes the carrier, it would give the Chinese Navy a carrier approaching the size of the U.S. Nimitz class [Global Security.org], which is roughly 97,000 tons in displacement.

The documents say the conventionally powered Project 085 is a transitional project to the nuclear-powered Project 089. The mid-sized conventional carrier, to be completed by 2010, would displace 48,000 tons standard and 64,000 tons fully loaded. It will be able to hold 30-40 Jian-10 fighters [Global Security.org], which China began deploying last December. China is currently developing a naval version of the Jian-10; prior to development, China plans to decorate the ship with a compliment of 10-20 Russian-made Su-33s [Global Security.org].

The conventional carrier will be a modified version of the Soviet-built Varyag [Varyag World.com], which the Chinese have been playing with at China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation’s Dalian Shipyard [Global Security.org] since the Ukrainians sold it to them. Dalian Shipyard will be designing and building the conventional carrier. After Project 085 has been completed, the hull of the Varyag will be used for carrier landing exercises.

China’s carrier plans are in-line with comments made by the head of China’s National Defense Science, Technology, and Industry Commission, Zhang Yunchuan, who told reporters on March 16 that if things went smoothly, China could complete its indigenously built carrier by 2010.

The article came just after the new US Pacific Fleet Commander observed that China is far behind the United States in its naval abilities.

China is far from catching up to the United States as a military power, and the Pentagon will conduct exercises with the Chinese to gauge their intentions, tactics and strategy, the U.S. admiral set to take command of U.S. operations in the Pacific said March 22.

“While they may achieve improved combat effectiveness in certain limited areas, their overall near-peer status I think is a long way away,” said Adm. Timothy Keating, who takes command of the U.S. Pacific Command next week.

“We’re watching carefully. We’ll work with them to the extent that is appropriate so as to be able to evaluate their military strategy and doctrine, tactics, techniques and procedures, and stay ahead of them,” Keating told reporters.

Keating was given the new post after the former Pacific Fleet commander, Adm. Fallon, was transferred to the Middle East. The Chinese plans may well be vapor, but what's interesting is the perception that they have to have carriers to compete with the US.

Meanwhile yesterday President Chen Shui-bian unveiled the upgraded IDF fighter.

Hundreds of guests and engineers from the government-owned aircraft maker Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) applauded as the fighter looped and banked to show off its maneuvering capability.

"The success is not only the latest achievement of our defense industry, but it also demonstrates Taiwan’s determination and efforts to defend ourselves," Chen said at the end of the new fighter’s 10-minute test flight.

Chen named the new jet "Hsung Ying," or Goshawk, an indigenous bird renowned for the speed of its attacks on prey.

The AIDC unveiled the prototype of an upgraded single-seated upgrade late last year.

Costing the military 7 billion Taiwan dollars (US$212.1 million) in a project launched in 2001, the Goshawk had increased its endurance time with the installation of two additional fuel tanks, the AIDC said.

Note how Chen emphasized the willingness of Taiwan to defend itself, a signal to both China and the US. Taiwan's large defense industry is evidence of the island's willingness to defend itself. It is only the pro-China parties that are fighting the weapons appropriation from the US. And we all know who they are working for.

[Taiwan] [US] [China]

Beijing Annexes Student Dorm

Readers may recall that back in October I reported on the ownership controversy of a student dorm in Japan. China scored once again in its quest to annex everything Taiwanese, as the PRC grabbed a student dorm they had never owned with the court ruling in its favor.

On Tuesday, Japan's Supreme Court overturned a lower court ruling that recognized the ownership of the dormitory by Taiwan.

The top court overthrew a 1987 Osaka High Court decision in Taiwan's favour and sent the suit back to the Kyoto District Court to re-examine the case.

The dispute involves the ownership of the five-storey student dormitory outside Kyoto University, called Kokaryo (Chinese Dormitory), which the university built in 1945.

The Chinese Nationalist Government, which fled to Taiwan after losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949, bought Kokaryo in 1952 for Taiwanese students in Kyoto, but it was also open to students from the mainland.

In 1976, a year after mainland students took over Kokaryo, Taiwan filed a law suit with the Kyoto District Court demanding it back.

There's a lesson here....


[Taiwan] [Japan] [China]

Appalling Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Commentary

Sadly, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists chose to publish a one-sided piece of crap commentary on Taiwan independence from a Chinese "scholar" who simply regurgitates the propaganda line we're all drearily familiar with. Ranting and raving about Chen Shui-bian, whom the Beijing government reserves a special hatred for:

Seven years later, Chen has broken nearly all of his promises and proven himself a liar and "troublemaker," in the words of former President Bill Clinton. In pursuit of self-interest and political gain, he has disregarded Taiwanese security and his people's fundamental interest in peace and stability, which is preconditioned on his government's honesty and sense of responsibility. This inevitably escalates the tension across the Taiwan Strait.

As a post-World War II arrangement, Taiwan reverted to the mainland; Taiwan had belonged to China until Japan defeated China in 1894 and imposed the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which gave the island to Japan. But in 1945, China and the Allied Forces defeated Japan, and Taiwan was properly returned to the mainland. Currently, the United Nations and a majority of the countries in the world--including the United States and Japan--officially consider Taiwan a part of China. Given mainland China's ever-increasing hard and soft power, the fantasy of an independent Taiwan is coming to an end.

Geerit van der Wees of FAPA has supplied two addresses to write to:

Kennette Benedict, Executive Director
kbenedict@thebulletin.org
Tel: (773) 702-0077

Mark Strauss, Editor
mstrauss@thebulletin.org
Tel: (773) 834-1800

Please remember that this appeared in the Online Bulletin, not the print publication. Be polite and respectful.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)] [Chen Shui-bian]

Peter Arnett at Lung Ying-tai

An anonymous poster left this in a comment:

++++++++++++++

The Legendary War Correspondent
Peter Arnett
Lecture Title:
America at War in Iraq and Vietnam: The Similarities, The Differences

Well known for his covering of war, veteran correspondent Peter Arnett is a synonym of daredevil. Throughout his 40-plus years of news reporting, there is simply nothing ordinary in his diary:

1966 Awarded the Pulitzer Prize for his courageous work in Vietnam
1975 One of the last reporters in Saigon after it fell
1991 Representing CNN, brought exclusive coverage from Baghdad for the 16 initial intense hours of the Gulf War
Obtained an exclusive uncensored interview with Saddam Hussein one week after the start of the war
1995 First western journalist to interview Osama bin Laden
1998 Reprimanded then dismissed by CNN for he reported that the US Army had used sarin against a group of deserting US soliders in Laos in 1970
2003 In Iraq to cover the US invasion but was fired by NBC for granting an interview to state-controlled Iraqi television and commenting that “the first plan of the war has failed”
Dramatically hired by the British newspaper, the Daily Mirror the day after

Moderator: Lung Yingtai
Former Cultural Minister of Taipei City
Professor of National Tsing Hua University

Date & Time: Saturday, 21 April 2007 7:00pm-10:pm
Venue: Zhongshan Hall( No .98 Yenping S. Rd .Taipei)

The Lung Yingtai Cultural Foundaiton Launches

Masterclass by

The Legendary War Correspondent

Peter Arnett

Veteran correspondent Peter Arnett is well known for his covering of wars from Saigon to Bagdad. Besides his notebook and a helmet, what was he armed with? 30 hand-picked “apprentices” will be able to meet him in person and explore the art of being a war correspondent.

Date & Time: 22 April 2007 (Sunday) 2:00 – 5:00 pm

Venue: Yue-han Hall, 10 Jin Hua Street, Taipei

Enrollment
1. Applicants should be students attending high schools, universities or graduate schools.
2. Please mail your resume with a statement expressing your views on the Gulf War within 300 words to the Lung Yingtai Cultural Foundation, 2/F., 110 Jin Hua Street, Taipei or by email civictaipei@hotmail.com on or before 10 April 2007.
3. 30 short-listed applicants will be notified before 15 April 2007.
4. Short-listed applicants must submit a report in 1,000 words and a summary in 100 words after the completion of the masterclass. Both articles will be used by the Lung Yingtai Foundation for educational and promotional purposes.

å ±å Registration
電話Tel：02-33224907
傳真Fax：02-33224918
www.civictaipei.org
civictaipei@hotmail.com

+++++++++++++++++

Online registration is here.

Sizzler to Own Taiwan

Bloomberg reports, not on the steakhouse, but on a Russian missile that is giving US planners indigestion with its ability to make mincemeat of US naval defenses....

The missile, known in the West as the "Sizzler,'' has been deployed by China and may be purchased by Iran. Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England has given the Navy until April 29 to explain how it will counter the missile, according to a Pentagon budget document.

The Defense Department's weapons-testing office judges the threat so serious that its director, Charles McQueary, warned the Pentagon's chief weapons-buyer in a memo that he would move to stall production of multibillion-dollar ship and missile programs until the issue was addressed.

"This is a carrier-destroying weapon,'' said Orville Hanson, who evaluated weapons systems for 38 years with the Navy. "That's its purpose.''

"Take out the carriers'' and China "can walk into Taiwan,'' he said. China bought the missiles in 2002 along with eight diesel submarines designed to fire it, according to Office of Naval Intelligence spokesman Robert Althage.

A Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Russia also offered the missile to Iran, although there's no evidence a sale has gone through. In Iranian hands, the Sizzler could challenge the ability of the U.S. Navy to keep open the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 25 percent of the world's oil traffic flows.

Brrr....

(hat tip to initechnology) [Taiwan] [US] [China] [Taiwan Independence] [Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)] [Russia] [Iran]

US Stamp for Sun

Sun Yat-sen may have been replaced by a plant here in Taiwan, but he's forever commemorated by the US Postal Service. Initechnology informs me that sandwiched right between stamps for F. Remington the artist with the brush and James Naismith the artist with the basketball is a United States stamp for Sun Yat-sen, issued on Oct 10, 1961.

[China]

Does the US own Taiwan?

"Sovereign,” like “love,” means anything you want it to mean; it’s a word in the dictionary between “sober” and “sozzled.” - Robert A. Heinlein

Who owns Taiwan? China certainly wants to annex Taiwan, but has no legal title to it. For most of us Taiwan belongs to the 23 million people who live on it, but there is another group of people with a most interesting legal theory. Essentially, they argue that since Taiwan was occupied jointly by the US and the Chiang Kai-shek government, under the authority of the wartime allies, Taiwan is a US trust territory, an unincorporated territory of the United States.

This theory of Taiwan's sovereignty is being promoted by Dr. Roger Lin, and by longtime expat Richard Hartzell, who has been in Taiwan so long I think he should probably have squatter's rights to the island. Hartzell has written at length on it in several commentaries on in Taipei Times. Lin and Hartzell have some essays in PPT format here. Hartzell's position is laid out in a long editorials in the Taipei Times here:

By late 1949, with a civil war raging in China, additional military forces and government officials of the ROC fled to Taiwan. As of early 1950, the ROC government in Taiwan was "wearing two hats" -- it was a subordinate occupying power (beginning Oct. 25, 1945), exercising effective territorial control over Taiwan, and at the same time it was a government-in-exile -- beginning in December 1949.

Decisions regarding the transfer of Taiwan's sovereignty were to be made in the post-war peace treaty. Hence, in early 1950 the ROC was clearly not in possession of the sovereignty of Taiwan. Statements made in the 1943 Cairo Declaration and 1945 Potsdam Proclamation were "expressions of intent" made before the close of the war, but the final determination of Taiwan's status would be made under the San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT) signed Sept. 8, 1951.

On April 28, 1952, the SFPT came into force. Japan renounced sovereignty of Taiwan in Article 2b. However, no receiving country was specified. This is a "limbo cession." The US is confirmed as the principal occupying power in Article 23.

Final disposition of Taiwan was to be according to the directives of the USMG, as per Article 4b: Japan recognizes the validity of dispositions of property of Japan and Japanese nationals made by or pursuant to the directives of the USMG in any of the areas referred to in Articles 2 and 3.

In English, the word property includes "the right of ownership or title." With regard to territorial cessions, this includes "sovereignty."

As we know, the ROC was the legal government of China as referred to in World War II. However, the ROC failed to maintain its legal position when it fled to Taiwan in late 1949. As of late April 1952, with the coming into force of the SFPT, the ROC was not the legally recognized government of Taiwan; it was merely a subordinate occupying power and government in exile.

The fallout from Hartzell's argument is potent: all Taiwanese should hold US passports. The reader is invited to imagine that Chinese reaction should the US government actually advocate the position that it has territorial rights over Taiwan.

Recently, Dr. Lin sued in US court to get the US government to recognize its alleged obligations. A reader notified me that on March 23 the court denied the government's motion to dismiss.

UPDATE: I got corrected in the comment below:

"A reader notified me that on March 23 the court denied the government's motion to dismiss."

This is very misleading. The government filed a motion to dismiss their complaint pointing out numerous legal problems with their complaint. Instead of disputing the government's arguments, they ask the government to give them a second chance by filing an amended complaint. The government agreed to their request.

In essence, they agree their complaint is defective, so the court said there was no point in deciding the motion if the government is giving them a second chance. The court said the motion is moot.

This is not a victory as Messrs. Lin and Hartzell try to claim, but simply a second chance to see if they can state a legally recognized claim. My guess is that the governmet will file another motion to dismiss their amended complaint.

Next time, they may not be so lucky. Don't be misled. It is all spin with no substance. This is no victory.

[Taiwan] [Taiwan Independence] [democracy] [China]

Pro-Taiwan group to form in LDP?

My friend Sponge Bear tells me that junior members of the LDP are forming a pro-Taiwan group within the Japanese party to counter pro-China politicians:

Some 20 Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers who see China as a threat will form a parliamentary league to push closer ties with Taiwan and India, possibly in May, LDP sources said Saturday.

Members of the planned group, mainly junior and midranked LDP lawmakers, apparently aim to counter moves by pro-China groups within the LDP, the sources said.

The LDP's pro-China ranks, including former Secretary General Koichi Kato and others critical of Abe, are trying to form another group by bringing together three like-minded camps.

To counter the move, Keiji Furuya, a House of Representatives member, and other lawmakers who have similar stances to Abe's are expected to be key members of the new group that is seen as anti-China, the sources said.

It's good that Japan is recognizing the importance of a region-wide security arrangement that puts together Taiwan and India, something a number of thoughtful minds have long advocated. Japan and Australia recently inked a security pact that appears to be aimed at China, and it appears that the US is also studying closer links with India, according to that article.

Meanwhile, it is hard to see how Japan and Taiwan can get together, since squirrels from Taiwan are pillaging Japanese forests.

[Taiwan] [China] [Japan] (hat tip to Sponge Bear)