NOTES FROM A SUCKY ECONOMY: ...the NT is hitting a 30-month high, and the Taipei Times noted the other day after the Central Bank dumped a half a billion NT into the market to hold the NT down...."This is the way our central bank tells market participants to behave," one dealer said. "But the central bank should know that the tide is changing -- money will keep coming in as investors snap up stocks, because the Taiwanese market is the safest bet when other Asian markets are falling along with the US."The Taiwan stock market might reach 9,000, inward remittances for stock purchases are expected to keep pressure on the NT to appreciate...yes, there's nothing like living in a sucky economy where the currency is going up and the stock market is a safe bet.
The first debate of the current election cycle was yesterday. It seems to have gone well and both sides emerged about even, scoring points on each other. Coverage was good and even the usually pro-KMT media in Hong Kong and Singapore reported it rather neutrally, someone said. From The Taipei Times:
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidates Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) went head to head in their first pre-election televised debate yesterday. They discussed issues ranging from national identity and cross-strait affairs to the economy, environment and social welfare.Both saw eye to eye in seeking direct transportation links with China, with Hsieh and Ma pledging to negotiate and implement weekend direct charter flight services within three months of being elected president. Ma added that he would push for daily flights within six months.
It's funny to think of Ma, a lifelong pro-China ideologue, emphasizing his "Taiwaneseness." But it is also heartening to see that "being Taiwanese" is seen by all camps as not merely an issue but THE issue and one everyone laid great stress on. The headline for the China Post said it all: Ma, Hsieh Stress Identity in Debate. Hope in second debate Hsieh lays into Ma for his authoritarian past "Heck Ma, remember when you wanted to put me in prison? Now here I am debating you....no wonder you want to get back to the good old days..." and also nail Ma on the KMT's ties to China. Why is this blog entry on the debate not longer? The Central News Agency explains:
In an otherwise unexciting debate with no surprises...A debate in which Ma hold his own would appear to be a victory for Ma, but no one is writing that way yet.....and if the the issue is the economy stupid, where's the extensive debate on the economy?
In an equally snooze-inducing bit of news, former DPP Chairman Hsu Hsin-liang announced he would be supporting Frank Hsieh. The China Post has the tale. Hsu left the DPP and formed a pro-KMT think tank with two other turncoats, Sisy Chen and Shih Ming-te. Shih would later go on to lead the fake Red Ant protests aimed at ousting Chen Shui-bian. Hsu ran unsuccessfully for this and that, and did a number of stunts that got little notice. A has-been with no apparent political future, Hsu (a Hakka) does retain some connections to the Hakka community and may be a minor aid to Hsieh there. The China Post also sketches some of the connections between Hsu and the KMT, and the hidden but powerful role family in all its aspects plays in politics:
Maddog over at Taiwan Matters! has video links to the debate. A-gu has a nice summary, and tends to think Ma won.Hsieh seems to forget Hsu advocated unification with China, though the ruling party has never let up an attack on Ma Ying-jeou for being a "filial son" to his deceased Kuomintang apparatchik father whose death wish was "to oppose independence" and "to make the Chinese nation strong."
The DPP candidate may also forget Hsu's son is working in China, though continuing to lash out at Ma for keeping a "green card" for permanent residence in the United States.
A green card is Hsieh's excuse for doubting Ma may sell out Taiwan.
Moreover, Hsu's nephew is currently Ma's campaign spokesman.
[Taiwan]
29 comments:
Michael, your true title for this post should be: I Did Not Watch the Debate.
There is simply no way that anyone who watched it would argue that 'Taiwanesesness' was THE issue. That is preposterous. But I guess someone who apparently gets all his information from the extremists organs of both parties might take that away.
Likewise, you show that you where nowhere near a television from 2-5 yesterday afternoon when you argue: if the the issue is the economy stupid, where's the extensive debate on the economy?
In the only part of the debate in which the Taiwanese people directly participated, where they asked the questions-20 in all, 12 dealt with economic matters. Where, indeed. They must not read your blog to enlighten themselves about their roaring economy. "Let them eat hedge funds."
How many questions about Taiwan identity? One.
But far be it from the Taiwanese to define the themes of their own election. Nativism is relevant only to a small subset of the population here, and apparently foreigners who came to Taiwan in the late 1980s.
This is why the DPP got crushed in the LY, and why the analyses of you, Keating, et al have degenerated into largely worthless and dated polemics.
Hsieh performed badly in that debate. And remember, I've written here plenty that he is sounder on the economy than Ma. I even predicted he would win. He still has time to turn this around, but the train is pulling into the station.
If this is all he's got, he's going to get trounced as badly as the DPP did in January.
I wasn't near the television. I talked to lots of people about it, and read the news organs.
12 questions were permitted about the economy. Whoopee.
They must not read your blog to enlighten themselves about their roaring economy. "Let them eat hedge funds."
Why must you veer into stupidity like this?
This is why the DPP got crushed in the LY, and why the analyses of you, Keating, et al have degenerated into largely worthless and dated polemics.
True, my analysis says the nativist issue is useless at the LY level. Are you incapable of reading, or can you not stop yourself? Or what?
Michael
The debate showed Hsieh has a plan for the economy as well, and the problems Ma has paying for his plans (subsidize everything + build lots of stuff).
Hsieh's strength is the economy and he should have confidence and run on it more. Ma's plan for the economy would have worked in circa 1970s. Taiwan's strengths in the future will be more and more in the research and development area and we see more and more innovative things coming out of it. Taiwan is no remote backwater and tourism even doubling or tripling will still only take up a tiny, tiny part of the economy.
The debate also showed what a negative campaign Ma has been running despite protests to the contrary.
As far as I have seen it's Xie that has been running the negative campaign. He has made sufficiently clear that I should not vote for Ma, while what I really want to know is why I should vote for Xie. I was disappointed with the debate at several points, but I was also disappointed with Xie, for again limiting himself to attacking Ma instead of making a case for himself.
(Case in point: when the two could ask each other questions, what was the first question Xie asked? the big issue that he really wanted Ma to answer on? 'Do you have a greencard.' Or am I the only one who is seriously uninterested in this?)
lu:
What do you think of the KMT attack ads on Hsieh? What do you think of the ones that attack former officials of his that have been indicted (several of whom have been found not guilty or are otherwise still in appeal)? What do you think of Ma's team's accusations that Hsieh was a mole for the KMT during the Tang-wai movement?
I'm asking honestly, and I'd like to know what you think.
The Green Card thing is being overplayed, I think. Hsieh really does need to express his ability to exceed in economic matters. Ma has trouble handling crises.... point made. I do have to point out one tiny inaccuracy though from that China Post article you quoted.
"The DPP candidate may also forget Hsu's son is working in China, though continuing to lash out at Ma for keeping a "green card" for permanent residence in the United States."
As foreigners working in China can attest, a Chinese residency permit, obtained through sponsorship by an employer, only lasts as long as the date of expiration on your visa. It can then be renewed, but it must be terminated once your employment period ends. Thus, it cannot be an escape hatch for those seeking escape from another country... as if China were a hotspot for people seeking to escape anywhere but peripheral near-failed states such as Burma.
If you watch the debate (even just 10 minutes into it), you will realize that Hsieh is relying on the supply-side Regonomics which is what Bush is trying to do. Ma is a strict Keynesian. If you look at the data, Keynesian although is old, it is still the most effective way of managing economy. Supply-side sounded really good, however, all the data points to how hard is to actually manage it.
If you believe in CNBC, that's fine. However, let me tell you that I put 20% of my money in SDS ETF. I am a huge bear on the US and world economies, and I have my money on the line :). My prediction of the indexes are below 7000 for Taiwan and close to 10k for the US by end of 2009 if not this year. Of course, in two years I will either sound like a genius or a fool.
thomas,
Very unlikely that Hsieh's son works in China on a "foreign visa", unless he has a passport from a third country. (Which would be a story in and of itself.)
Hsieh's son, like all ROC passport holders, is probably on the mainland on a taibaozhen (Taiwan Resident Travel Pass).
A taibaozhen is valid for 5 years, and can be renewed indefinitely without leaving the mainland. It's equivalent to permanent residence.
Michael,
Seems to me Ma has managed to make "identity" a non-issue.
It's obviously important to the Taiwanese electorate that their elected officials identify with Taiwan, claim to represent their interests, and doesn't make any changes on the short-term.
It's also becoming obvious that as long as the above is true, the Taiwanese electorate doesn't care that he was born in Hong Kong, is the son of a Chinese nationalist, heads the Nationalist Party of China, which ultimately vows to fight independence and work towards unification.
cct:
The American ARC is not like the taibozhen because only the card itself expires; Permanent Resident Status itself does not expire.
Which is why Ma still has a valid PRS and still owes American taxes (even though he hasn't been paying them). Now I think if he were the average Taiwanese, breaking American laws and having a permanent resident status wouldn't be a big deal, but he's running for goddamn president.
I agree though that a large part of the electorate doesn't care or doesn't care to know the details.
True Blue's is drawing unwarranted conclusions from the mix of questions. We don't know how the question were chosen, and from th people who were chosen to ask them and follow up in the studio, it looked there was a heavy bias toward the better educated urban elite.
Identity although not nativism is still a potent issue. Notice how Ma felt to compelled to say that he was Taiwanese, that he grew up in Wanhua, that he eats Taiwanese rice and drinks Taiwanese water and that his ashes will be Taiwanese when he dies. Notice how the first (and concessionary) half of CCK's famous statement " I am Chinese, and also Taiwanese" has been eliminated. Identity is no longer so important because everyone agrees on the primacy of Taiwanese identity and the importance of a clear commitment to it.
If the Taiwanese find out otherwise, identity will become an issue again.
I also felt that Ma won the debate. Not in the sense of having turned in a great performance on the issues, but rather in doing a good job of presenting his public persona--the kind, caring, and upright Confucian junzi.
In a more positive move for Hsieh, he has been turning up the heat on Ma for his antiquated and spendthrift economic program. Unfortunately, I think this will be too little too late and will not resonate with voters, who by and large think the more government spending the better.
The American ARC is not like the taibozhen because only the card itself expires; Permanent Resident Status itself does not expire.
This only goes to show you hire that prestigious immigration law firm of Anonymous, Anonymous and Anonymous at your own peril.
From the horse's mouth, i.e, Uncle Sam:
You may be found to have abandoned your permanent resident status if you:
* Move to another country intending to live there permanently.
* Remain outside of the US for more than one year without obtaining a reentry permit or returning resident visa. However in determining whether your status has been abandoned any length of absence from the US may be considered, even if it is less than one year.
* Remain outside of the US for more than two years after issuance of a reentry permit without obtaining a returning resident visa. However in determining whether your status has been abandoned any length of absence from the US may be considered, even if it is less than one year.
* Fail to file income tax returns while living outside of the US for any period.
* Declare yourself a “nonimmigrant” on your tax returns.
So it appears PRS can indeed expire, Perry Mason.
@Feiren: Identity is an issue only because of the media circus. No one else cares. This is why so many are turned off to politics in the first place, precisely because the media wastes so much time on this kind of nonsense rather than the issues Taiwanese really care about.
true blue:
If you're going to quote, you're going to have to read too. Expiration is about time. The qiaobaozheng expires in 5 years.
PRS doesn't expire.
If you are shown to have done of the things that are quoted, then you may lose your PRS. And the IRS says that you have to pay taxes until you fill out a form formally ending your PRS or an immigration judge declares your status to be invalid.
Easy test--if violating any of those things, can you simply renew? Nope...
feiren,
Identity is no longer so important because everyone agrees on the primacy of Taiwanese identity and the importance of a clear commitment to it.
True.
But let's also agree that apparently "primacy of Taiwanese identity" isn't incompatible with leading the Nationalist Party of China, while still holding a professed stance of opposing independence on the long-term.
In other words, this is a version of Taiwanese identity which is not mutually exclusive with a Chinese identity.
PRS doesn't expire.
In the US, your rights can be taken away involuntarily except citizenships (go read our constitution amendment 14 concerning voluntary and involuntary acts on citizenships and residencies). If you are curious about the protection of someone's US citizenships (not PRS), go google Perez vs Brownell and the following 4 supreme court decisions; wiki will give you all four one after another. Btw, even if the NEW PRS doesn't expire now, there is an expiration for any green card older than late 90s (don't remember which year in the later 90s). All old green cards need to be renewed to the new ones.
If you are shown to have done of the things that are quoted, then you may lose your PRS. And the IRS says that you have to pay taxes until you fill out a form formally ending your PRS or an immigration judge declares your status to be invalid.
This is the typical incomprehensible stupidity that passes for 'logic' among the Deep Greens. With incisive insight like this, your talents are wasted in this humble forum. You should be Frank Hsieh's media front man. And if I were Ma, I'd offer to pay your salary. The first words out of your mouth would ensure my victory.
I guess your next nugget of wisdom will be that Ma could've chosen that his daughter Ma Weichung not be a US citizen at the time of her birth.
In the first place, Ma's claim is that he abandoned his green card by doing the first two points on that list. DHS says that doing those things is what may cause someone to lose his PRS.
In any case, there is no distinction between 'expire' and 'lose' in this case. The language says 'you may lose...' because 99.99% of the time in these situations, it is assumed that the person wants to maintain their PRS. If the intent is to abandon PRS, it's a moot point, and does not require a court's determination, unless the person tries to re-establish the PRS claim.
The IRS is not the controlling agency on immigration law-DHS is. Your IRS example is completely irrelevant once Ma lost his PRS, which would occur after one year outside the US (or if he obtained a tourist visa, which is prima facie evidence of his intent to abandon PRS).
In sum, as usual you don't have a clue what you're talking about. But we all knew that long ago.
"What do you think of [KMT attacks at Xie]?"
I know about all these, and in my opinion it's also mud-slinging, and should stop.
I'm not against Xie, for all I know he might make a great president. I just wish he would convince me of that. I guess I'm disappointed because I thought he would do better than this.
Identity is an issue only because of the media circus. No one else cares.
Not true at all. People care if Ma intends to sell out to China with some form of a peace deal. (conveniently pushed through by a blue controlled LY). If this happens, it's the end of free Taiwan. Instead of presidential elections, there will be presidential selections, media control, no rights for opposition, more corruption and who knows what. (a real democracy memorial??)
This is the main issue in this election even if you want to believe the simpleton bluetard "bread and butter ~ focus on the economy" talking points.
Of course, as a blue supporter, a party that has always pushed for democracy (laugh) and free elections (snicker), you wouldn't understand this.
True Blue,
You're being childish and your dribble about being a spokesperson is illogical and does nothing to prove your point. You continue to misunderstand the English word "expire". Expiring is a time concept. No amount of violating terms to an agreement could lead to expiration if the time hasn't yet come up. Violating the agreement may lead to you losing your Permanent Residency Status, but it would not be called expiring because that's not what expiring means. Go get yourself a nice English dictionary.
Arty,
PRS is distinct from the actual card you carry, called the Green Card. Green cards expire. PRS doesn't (though you can essentially violate terms of the PRS and lose it upon your next re-entry to the US). And I agree the PRS is distinctive from citizenship, but it has nothing to do with what this conversation was about, so I don't know why you bother bringing it up.
By the way, are True Blue and Arty the same person?...
By the way, are True Blue and Arty the same person?...
No, I am pretty sure of it. My name have specific meaning. If you google the my true avatar name, you will find out who I truly am (actually, that's not a true statement, the site I use my true avatar name is blocked from google search).
The reason I brought it up about the protection of the US citizenships is to emphasize that other than the citizenships. All other US statuses could expire or taken away involuntarily without filing a form.
Personally, I actually want Hsieh to win because I don't think population in Taiwan will wake up until they are eating mud-cookies. Also, I don't see how Ma is going to fulfill what he said when I think a huge recession is going to hit the US.
Arty said: "Personally, I actually want Hsieh to win because I don't think population in Taiwan will wake up until they are eating mud-cookies"
This is why I can't Blues. They can't stand success under the DPP. They can't stand to see economic growth under the DPP. They can't stand to see huge projects like the High Speed Rail project and the Snow Mountain Tunnel (world's longest) get completed under the DPP.
They see things as a zero-sum game; it's about getting power, not doing what's good for Taiwan.
Sad...
This is why I can't Blues. They can't stand success under the DPP. They can't stand to see economic growth under the DPP. They can't stand to see huge projects like the High Speed Rail project and the Snow Mountain Tunnel (world's longest) get completed under the DPP.
They see things as a zero-sum game; it's about getting power, not doing what's good for Taiwan.
Sad...
I think you are the one (big I think you see). Considering green camp are bashing Ma's major infrastructure plans. I cannot believe you bring these two projects up. Btw, I don't agree on focusing solely on the infrastructure developments either but it is better than none or focus on restricting import/export and price fixing to fight inflations.
And talking about focusing on getting power, the whole small congressional district and 113 seats for the legislature are DPP's ideas because they thought that's the only way they can have over half of the seats. It just didn't work out that way. You see at least when Republican in the US redraw the district in Texas, they know what they are doing.
Again, I don't know why I am sad because I am not even in Taiwan or gringos (you see the green theme) saying they love Taiwan while still having US citizenships (wow, I sounded like a DPP)...ouch a little too much here. Sorry.
Arty, your English is making it hard for me to understand what you're saying.
I'll respond to one point I do understand but that is illogical.
It makes perfect sense to be for High Speed Rail and Snow Mountain Tunnel but be against spending 4 trillion NT on MORE transportation infrastructure.
Analogy: I was hungry. I ate two slices of pizza. Ma Ying-jeou wants me to spend a shitload of money to buy an entire pizza. I think I'm full. That's the position of the Greens on transportation infrastructure. Besides more MRTs and the TRA being privatized and redirected towards local/commuter use, there is absolutely no need to spend double the entire annual budget for more transportation on the western corridor. If Taiwan were Taiwan Inc, that's called a low return on investment. Imagine if they spent that money on English and communications skills education; the return on that would be so unbelievably huge if an entire generation ended up being able to speak fluent English.
On the US, just a small point. Taiwanese Americans are largely pro-Taiwan, pro-DPP, and pro-Independence. Look at all those Taiwanese American student campus clubs, and look at the events they put on.
You are waisheng, but many waisheng that grew up entirely in the US, magically, also end up the same way. I think it's something you can personally mull over.
You are waisheng, but many waisheng that grew up entirely in the US, magically, also end up the same way. I think it's something you can personally mull over.
I don't know where you are. However, the West coast are not like this. My sister was the President of TSA in one of the largest University on the West coast, and one of my high school friends was the President of the CSA. Political events are usually not promoted in the schools by the TSA, CSA, and HKSA. So maybe you should personally mull over these. I am still in academia which I highly doubt you are. However, since you brought this up, I just went through California TSA on different campuses. I don't see any thing jumping out at me. I mean the UCLA is having potluck party as usual, CSfullerton has a date night event, Caltech has no event...etc. University of Washington TSA even runs with both CSA and HKSA...do you still think the college campuses are still like the 70s these days.
Yes, I write funny online that's because I am too lazy to read over again online.
Arty you write funny online because English isn't your native language.
You can't just look at events (though they are there). I don't know why you bother mentioning HK or Chinese student clubs since Chinese students will be very pro-unification. The fact is, a majority of Taiwanese American college students are pro-independence.
By the way, I'm still in academia, but the graduate school community is completely different and separate from the undergrad community, especially since all that I said doesn't apply to fobs like yourself.
By the way, I'm still in academia, but the graduate school community is completely different and separate from the undergrad community, especially since all that I said doesn't apply to fobs like yourself.
I don't know which university has a wall separating graduate and undergraduate students. I guess maybe the universities in Taiwan do, and I guess some lucky professors only get to teach graduate students. You do understand that being in "academia" means that I am not a student anymore. If you are a student, you will say that you are a student (or a graduate student) or will say that you are in school. I was one during the 90s and 2000s including my graduate schools, and I am not pro-independence. My younger sister who was the president of TSA is six year younger than I am, and she is not pro-independence and was elected to be the President of TSA. I do love to be a FOB though, life is a lot more fun when people think nothing of you :).
Btw, if you have some stats on your claims feel free to give me the link. I can change my mind if there are evidences saying so. Also, you logic is faulty because why would there be any difference between undergraduate and graduate students from Taiwan? Oh, I forgot, there aren't that many graduate students from Taiwan anymore...
Arty you write funny online because English isn't your native language.
It is true that English is not my first language. However, I have heard a similar phrase used on a native English speaker whose major is English. Actually, the person said "English must be your second language," when he knew the person is an American. Btw, I have seen some horrible writing from native-born Americans; it is not just a trade mark of FOBs :).
Anon was referring as far as I can tell to Taiwanese Americans who grew up mostly in the US. Basically people not like you Arty. That's why there's a difference between undergraduate and graduate communities because Taiwanese students growing up in Taiwan mostly go over for grad school, not for college.
My experience is the same in that Taiwanese Americans basically are all pro-independence even if they are throwing events like Moon Cake Night most of the time. I haven't seen a school where the graduate community is a large part of the club community. For one, grad students, especially in the sciences and engineering are all foreigners...
My experience is the same in that Taiwanese Americans basically are all pro-independence even if they are throwing events like Moon Cake Night most of the time. I haven't seen a school where the graduate community is a large part of the club community.
I am stuck in the middle. I was 15 when I moved to the US. My sister was 9. Also, where is your logic? I was an undergraduate, and my sister graduated three years ago. If you talk about strictly Taiwanese born in the US, most of them don't even speak Chinese, nor Taiwanese, nor are political in nature. Btw, they usually don't join TSA, CSA, or HKSA either. 70% of them probably don't even know where Canada is on a map just like the average Americans. Anon said there are events for political movements, and I simply pointed out that there is none at least not the major student associations. It is more like: if you don't talk about independence, then I won't talk about unification. Be honest, I don't even think they care.
The number of Taiwanese Americans (ABTs growing up in the US) that keep of with political happenings in Taiwan (other than the big elections, like the upcoming presidential one) is not high, but when asked their preferences, they would almost all be labeled "deep Green" or *gasp* radicals.
Largely, they think it's a shame the the way Taiwan is treated on the international level. When asked, they identify as Taiwanese and not Chinese (though they respect their Chinese heritage). A lot, when given the chance, make a stand for Taiwan, even if they aren't always up to date on all the details. It's a heritage they are proud of, and the values of a multicultural, multiethnic, dynamic capitalist economy that has universal healthcare to boot is something that dovetails pretty well with mainstream American values.
I think there is definitely a portion that immigrated in their adolescence who feel insecure about their "Americanism" and so will pretend not to care about Taiwanese politics (Arty I suspect this is you). But that's a minority for sure.
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