Taiwan's Fading Independence Movement

As I've noted before, one of the things that we can expect as the 2008 Presidential election draws near is a big push for Ma Ying-jeou and against Taiwan independence in the foreign, especially US media, echoing the similar push for James Soong that occurred in the 2000 election prior to the revelation of the missing millions of KMT dollars. I still remember with especial fondness John Pomfret's fall-down-laughing pitching of Soong as a "democratic reformer" in the Washington Post these many years ago, which generated an indignant letter from this writer.

This drive to put Ma in the Presidency in 2008 seems to have opened with Robert Ross' article in this month's issue of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan's Fading Independence Movement. Unfortunately an e-text is not yet available, but you can view the first few hundred words online there. This looks like one of the saddest articles on the Taiwan situation yet to appear in a major journal. Just glance at these two paragraphs here:

After 1996, the situation remained tense, and the repeated steps toward independence taken by Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's president since 2000, fanned the flames. Although the independence movement enjoyed a high profile internationally, it never won widespread domestic support. The increasingly unpopular Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the driving forces behind the independence movement in recent years, have suffered several electoral defeats, and advocates of greater cooperation with the mainland have gained ground. A new, calmer era in cross-strait relations seems to be dawning.

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO

Taiwan shares a culture, language, and heritage with mainland China. But after Taiwan's half century of autonomy, economic progress, and democratization, and the resulting contrast between Taiwan and authoritarian China, many on the island have developed a strong sense of "Taiwan identity," and they believe that Taiwan now merits international recognition as a sovereign country. By the mid-1990s, the "Taiwan identity" movement had become a major force in Taiwanese politics. But it has not resulted in widespread calls for a formal declaration of independence. Voters, reflecting Beijing's military and economic hold on the island, have preferred to accommodate China's opposition to Taiwan's independence. By 2000, thanks to its accelerated missile and aircraft deployments, Beijing had developed the capability ...

ROFL. I can't wait to read the rest, if it is as slanted and as entertaining as this. "Never won widespread domestic support." Is there anyone out there who really believes that if Beijing did not threaten to ignite a regional conflict, that the Taiwanese would choose to become a satrapy of Beijing? Here's an understanding basic to grasping the situation here: not everyone who votes DPP does so because they favor independence, and not everyone who votes KMT does so because they are against independence. This is especially true of elections at the local level, which for all intents and purposes take place in an alternate universe. And further, that Chen Shui-bian and the DPP are not the end-all and be-all of the independence movement.

As pundits are wont to point out, the public strongly supports the status quo. In case the Robert Ross-s of the world haven't yet noticed, the status quo is a Taiwan that is independent of Beijing. Even the good Mayor Ma, Chairman of the KMT, who is not exactly noted around these parts for his political acumen, has apparently noticed that the great middle is solidly pro-independence, which is why he has played down unification and at times toyed with the idea of recognition of Taiwan independence as an alternative for the island.

Looking forward to seeing the rest next month.

[Taiwan] [US] [China] [Asia] [Chen Shui-bian] [DPP] [Ma Ying-jeou] [Taiwan Independence] [US Foreign Policy]