Let's unpack all the stuff I've been chatting about all day.
Eric Chu, KMT Chairman is going to meet President Xi of China in May, says everyone. I haven't talked to anyone who thinks that will be good for his election prospects. Can Chu really kowtow before Xi, then return to Taiwan and within a month tell everyone he is Taiwanese? Because even Ma Ying-jeou was able to say he was Taiwanese (started in July of 2011 and he managed to grit his teeth on that one for six months). The election is in January of 2016...
So you tell me what this means. Is Chu really going to run? Is the meeting with Xi a signal that he isn't going to run? Chu is really nice, and well liked, but hardly charismatic, and no one has ever mentioned that he is particularly brilliant or particularly cunning or particularly ruthless. So chatting with several friends about this meeting, and everyone is basically in same position: either Chu has a brilliant plan we don't understand, or else Chu hasn't foreseen how much damage meeting Xi might do him because he can't look that far ahead/lacks political sense, or else he isn't going to run and the Xi meeting relates to KMT internal politics. Even Ma had the common sense to stay away from a meeting with the president of China...
All those KMT legislators clamoring for Chu are clamoring for him because they need a strong candidate to keep their seats, a friend pointed out. Last time we chatted he pointed out that if Soong seriously runs for president, he'll act as a sink for pan-Blue protest votes. This will be especially true if the KMT runs Wang Jin-pyng, who is Taiwanese. Lots of Deep Blues don't like him, and neither does President Ma Ying-jeou (I hope they run Wang just to watch Ma eat crow and appear on a platform with him). Soong will give all those votes a Deep Blue mainlander option...
And lo and behold, the DPP has given Soong an incentive to run. Solidarity translates/reports on the DPP plan to reserve 13 seats for non-DPP politicians, including PFPers, from Soong's party:
Translation of an April 9 Liberty Times report by Chen Hui-ping and Su Fang-wo. See also this Taipei Times story, which alas leaves out information of great interest: firstly, that the DPP is running at least 1 indigenous candidate (unlike in ‘08 and ‘12), and secondly, that it seems to be planning to let Huang Shan-shan 黃珊珊 of the PFP run unopposed by the greens in Taipei 4. That could in turn indicate an unprecedented DPP-PFP legislative alliance is on the table, one that crosses green and blue and would make the KMT’s job of holding the Legislature even harder. (The other possibility is they’re just sick of crazy people running in Taipei 4 and would rather have a sane person there that they can work with.) Another district where there’s been talk of the DPP stepping aside for a PFP candidate is Keelung, but it’s not listed here.Of course, there is always the possibility the KMT will run a Soong-Wang/Wang-Soong unity ticket... it's wide open if Chu chooses not to run. Commentator James Wang in the Taipei Times on the 13 set-asides...
In a previous post on Chu, I posted some graphics on how New Taipei City residents don't want Chu to run. Note that he does not have to resign. A dear friend pointed out to me that Chu is in a basically unprecedented position -- he holds a meaningful high government position. When Lien and Soong ran in '04, they had no public position. Nor did Ma in '08. Nothing says Chu has to resign his position, but it is hard to see how he can do justice to the KMT, a presidential bid, and running the nation's biggest municipality at the same time...
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Daily Links:
- East Asia Forum: AIIB will integrate region better than TPP. No kidding.
- Bowring excoriates US for its stumbling Asia/Foreign policy.
- KMT, Wuerkaixi and other Taichung election news: Taiwan Take
- Solidaritytw translates a viral post from a soldier. Anyone who has been here for a few years knows all this...
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Option 4: Chu still hasn't decided whether to run and has been keeping all his options open to this point.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we're seeing a repeat of last year, when Chu dragged his feet to the bitter end before making a decision on whether he'd run for re-election or not. I think that he ultimately will not run - he's clearly not big on taking risks and giving up the biggest mayoralty in the country for a chance to be Tsai Ying Wen's roadkill probably does not look appealing.
ReplyDeleteHi Michael - can you kindly enlighten on when the SETV pool was published and where did you get the information? I've been googling but just could not find it. Many thanks!
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ReplyDeleteSorry!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J85f5SXCMvU
I think Chu is eyeing 2020. The four year time window can give him more time 1 ) to retire KMT old timers, Wang, Wu, Ma ... , 2) to demonise Tsai (the new president) with blue medias, 3) to cultivate his own PRC connections.
ReplyDeleteHowever 2016 president Chu will generate more benefits for Taiwan independence than president Tsai. It's kind of paradoxical but it's an unpleasant truth.
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