I think I need a Beerlao to handle all this conflicting data.
ADDED: As my friend Ben Goren observed: "We essentially won't know shit until election night and the shooting the day before."
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The prediction market should tell us who will be shot the eve of the election, since this is now a tradition.
ReplyDeleteDo polls actually even influence election results?
ReplyDeleteMichael
ReplyDeleteI think the question is which polls/futures market were most accurate for the recent and 2008 elections. The fact that the polls disagree is not unusual, though the fact they do so much is strange.
Also you need to analyse voting sample size and voter weighting.
Generally the prediction market is considered the most accurate though it is not always right. TVBS consistently overestimates KMT support by about 8 points.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the media usually doesn't release the data we need to compare....
Michael
So many politicians and media are so irresponsible for public interest.
ReplyDeleteI feel so sad...will Taiwan still be a country or just an island without tomorrow? Everytime, it's like an unbearable burden for us to face such an election....
Ma is the high horse for another 4 years. not doubt about it. get used it, ye who value stability.
ReplyDeleteHow did the prediction market do for the 2008 presidential election? Ma was obviously going to win that one, but I'd be curious how the percentage win numbers lined up. Also if it predicted the huge sweep of legislative seats.
ReplyDeleteA comparison of Xfuture market's prediction on the past presidential elections can be found here:
ReplyDelete預測市場與民意調查對選舉預測的準確度比較_20111123
It shows that the Xfuture is a much more reliable sources than China Times, TVBS, UDN, and Apple.
I'm also very interested in the trend than the current numbers. The trend is, IMO, the most valuable feature of Xfuture. You can read how Tsai, Ma and Soong's trend changed during the past couple of months :
Future Market predicts: Ma falls behind by 8% and keeps falling fast
My extrapolation in that article is probably over-stretched, but following the trend, it doesn't seem that Ma is gonna rise back up.
Buckle up for a rough ride 'cos there will be more negative moves from Ma's camp.
Have there ever been any instance where the KMT matched or beat the poll predictions in the "Blue" media? It seems whatever the polls say, the KMT always falls below.
ReplyDeleteHave there ever been any instance where the KMT matched or beat the poll predictions in the "Blue" media? It seems whatever the polls say, the KMT always falls below.
ReplyDeleteThat's generally the trend. I was looking at the 2008 election and a couple of weeks before, Ma was up 25 points. I figure if you subtract 5-8 points from TVBS you'll be close to the actual situation.
Michael