Donovan: Froze, the Turtonator and Me on Ko P

My friend Dom took this picture of me, which I really love because it is with a good friend whom I have known for several years. He lives at the police station near Tai-An station, and I always stop in to see him when I am in the neighborhood.

So I took Donovan's whole response to me post the other day and put it on my blog. How will Ko P do? Donovan is more optimistic about his prospects for a win in Taipei. Go to READ MORE to read more, it's a long one. I will wait til the DPP comes out with its own candidate before I update.

Froze, the Turtonator and Me on Ko P

COURTNEY DONOVAN SMITH·SATURDAY, MAY 26, 2018
A very interesting discussion has developed on the future of Ko P in the Taipei mayoral race. A bold statement by Nathan Batto on his fantastic blog Frozen Garlic (a MUST read if you’re interested in local politics) in this post:

“ I’ve consistently underestimated Ko Wen-je over the past five years. I may be doing so again, but this looks like the beginning of the end for him to me. I expect the DPP to start attacking him, and these attacks will take their toll on his popularity. Right now the DPP is in third place in the race, but if they can knock Ko down to third place, strategic voting will eviscerate him. Right now, my guess is that he will end up between 10% and 15%, far behind the KMT and DPP candidates. ”

It wasn’t clear why he came to that conclusion and I found it quite surprising, because I thought that Ko was actually in a pretty good position. Fascinated by his statement, I tried to puzzle out why he came to that conclusion and responded with this post, but instead of reading that I’d suggest reading Michael Turton’s post on his always excellently insightful blog the View from Taiwan (another MUST read if you’re interested in local politics) because he quotes my post, Batto’s posts at length, and adds his own analysis. To get fully up to speed on this conversation, I highly recommend reading that post here. In Turton’s post he says:

“That means that Ting, before he even utters a word, has 40% of the electorate locked up. It will be very difficult for him to fall below that number.

But if Ting runs an even half decent campaign, he can easily breach 50%. Remember, he has been in the trenches in Taipei since forever, is the son of an old soldier, not a princeling like Sean Lien, and many people in the city of both major parties feel he deserves it. He will probably collect all the KMT vote.

So whatever happens, Ko and the DPP candidate will split the DPP vote which at its best is 45% of the electorate. Note that when the hapless Lee Ying-yuan ran, he got 35% of the vote, which suggests that the tribal DPP vote in Taipei is 35% of the electorate.

The means that Ko P and the DPP will be splitting the remaining 15-25% willing to vote, plus siphoning off a few percentage points from each of the party's less tribal voters. Most of the light greens and blues will return to their respective parties, leaving little for Ko. Will he even reach 10% gleaning the leftovers?

Or voters could vote strategically the other way. Ko might get over 40% if he can siphon votes from Ting, who is not a compelling candidate ("he deserves it" is not a convincing voter appeal) and then collect most of the DPP vote. But can DPP voters in Taipei be smart enough to dump the DPP candidate in favor of a candidate the DPP officially does not like?”

Uh-oh. So now two of the sharpest political minds on Taiwan politics--and without whose excellent insights I wouldn’t have been able to produce some of my own best work--think I’m wrong on this and that Ko P is toast. Time for a total rethink on my position based on the assumption that I’m probably wrong. These guys are smart, really smart and I certainly have no problem with being schooled--that’s the only way to learn. So I went back to the drawing board to think it all through again.

And yet, I still came to the same conclusion: Ko P is far from toast, and this race is still his to lose (though I do now think it will be a tougher fight than I did a few days ago, Batto and Turton did make some excellent points). So, at risk of embarrassing myself come election day...here goes:

All three of us agree, as far as I can tell, on the main factors going into this race--but we disagree on the relative importance of these factors. We all agree once the campaign really gets going and the two big parties mobilize their forces and go on the attack that will put Ko under significant pressure. We all agree not having his own party will be a problem for Ko, and that both the KMT and DPP camps have a solid base of supporters. We all agree that the KMT’s Ting and most think the likely candidate for the DPP is Pasuya Yao--both frequent losers and both not compelling candidates. If the DPP chooses Annette Lu, I should note, that changes things a bit, but in general most of this stands.

One big area we disagree on is what are the relevant numbers we should be looking at. If one looks at past numbers only, I would come to pretty much the same conclusion: Ko P is doomed. But those aren’t the numbers that I think are the most relevant. This Taipei mayoral election is nothing like the past ones, period. Comparisons to traditional DPP/KMT races don’t make sense to me because obviously this is a three-way race. Comparisons to past races with a third candidate are, to me, similarly useless--those were relative nobodies. Ko P isn’t like those past candidates, he is an incumbent (which is an advantage) and he is extremely well known and has name recognition to a degree that none of the others did.

Ko P also appeals across pan-blue and pan-green lines. He has behaved for the most part like a Taipei centrist, sometimes he sounds pan-green, sometimes pan-blue. That will provide ammunition against him to rally the base on both sides, but that also adds to his practical, straight-talking appeal in the middle.

The numbers that I’m paying attention to are not the numbers from the past, but the current ones and current trends. The average of recent polls now has the three candidates (assuming Yao on the DPP side) are:

Ko P: 37%
Ting: 31%
Yao: 18%
Undecided: 14%
Interestingly, the addition of Yao to the race on average took 9% from Ting and only 5% from Ko when compared to a 2-way Ko-Ting race--so the inclusion of a DPP candidate at least initially has boosted, not hurt Ko.

So, why are Batto and Turton predicting a massive drop in Ko P’s support between now and November? They think the party machines will eat Ko P alive is the short answer, and that the KMT’s Ting has a bottom floor of 40% of the vote because, well Taipei. A traditionally blue bastion.
I think both are underestimating Ko, and overestimating the party support for both Ting and Yao. First, let me point out that 37% are currently planning to vote for Ko P. That number may take some damage, but not as much as Batto and Turton might think--unless Ko implodes in the way I describe in my previous post. The reason I say this is because Ko is a very well known quantity to residents of Taipei, so I think that 37% is a more solid number than the others suppose. Some of those voters will change their minds once the attack ads get into full swing, I agree. Another problem is that he doesn’t have the get-out-the-vote machine the others do. But I don’t think those two factors are going to hit him as hard as they suppose. Ko P has been under attack for awhile now, so unless his opponents come up with something new or repackage old criticisms in a way that is compelling, I think most people will shrug it off. The gaffe-prone mayor has probably already turned off most of those easily scared away. That suggests to me his support is not “based on air” as Batto commented. Plus, what may be chipped away by attack ads from existing support may well be replaced by as much or more from undecideds (more on that below).

But some might ask, could Ting or Yao win away Ko voters by their wit, charm and inspiring policy proposals? Well, these guys have been running for Taipei mayor for so long and haven’t been able to even make it out of the party primaries for years, these are not great candidates. Sock puppets are more compelling than these guys.

This brings me to a couple more advantages that Ko has. While the other two candidates have run in elections before, neither has had to endure the kind of scrutiny and abuse that either a serious candidate for Taipei mayor--or sitting Taipei mayor--but Ko has. That means that most likely, Ko will make it to the finish line (barring a major city government mishap) without a scandal or something new from his past dragging him down. We don’t know if that is the case with the other two, but we’re sure going to find out. Second, Ko is an asymmetrical candidate, though very different in style than Trump, he’s also hard for typical politicians to handle using traditional tactics. While at his worst Ko says dumb things, when he’s at his best he says something so blunt and straight to the point that it skewers his opponents attacks. And consider that Ko has survived so many gaffes and missteps in the past from insulting diplomats to chauvinistic comments about women--and yet he has largely been forgiven. He can get away with saying and doing things his opponents can’t. That isn’t a small thing, and it shouldn’t be underestimated.

Now I want to pick at the 40% bottom floor that both Batto and Turton have bandied about. Ting may indeed hit 40%, it wouldn’t surprise me too much, but I don’t think it is anywhere near as solid a floor as they think. In the average of recent polls here is party identification:

KMT 24.7%
PFP: 1.5%
“pan-blue”: 7.6%
DPP 20.4%
NPP: 6.6%
“pan-green”: 4.6%
Neutral: 36.7%
Other: 9.7%

Take a look at those numbers for a moment, and also consider these things. First, party identification is at an all time low (article on that). Second, consider that the KMT has been dealt a series of blows in recent years, and hasn’t shown any serious signs of recovery. Third, consider that the DPP is nationally the ruling party and is not terribly popular, which will weigh on their candidate. The current mood has an element of “a pox on both your houses”. That plays into Ko’s favour.
To quote Charles Lei, who commented on my first post the following:

“ Am definitely one of those voters who will make it a point to vote for Ko P this fall. The DPP is myopic and out of touch with global reality, i.e., have their heads up their butts. The KMT are equally bad, a bunch of rudderless spineless has-beens who should join their ancestors in the great dinosaur graveyard. ”

The numbers above can’t be read the same way they would in a normal election. Those that identify with a specific party are probably pretty hardcore supporters, so let’s just give those to those candidates: That gives Ting a solid 24.7% and Yao a solid 20.4%. Some in the “other category” probably include supporters of parties like the NP, TSU, Green Party and everyone’s favourite, CUPP. Many TSU voters will likely go DPP, NP to KMT and so forth. Let’s just assume about half of those will automatically choose one of those two parties, and give 4.8% split in two for 2.4% to each party. Sure, pretty rough guessing here, but that puts the KMT at around 27% and the DPP at around 23%.
All of the other categories are potential Ko supporters. PFP is supporting Ko. NPP voters lean independent, and many are fed up with the DPP, so many will likely consider voting for Ko. Since Ko has been sounding both green and blue at various times, the generic “pan-blue” and “pan-green” voters are wide open to him. As a general rule of thumb in Taiwan, when someone picks a “pan” identification without specifying a party, it usually means “no way in hell I want to vote for the other side”, but not that it means they are particularly happy with their options in their own “camp”. So, a “pan-blue” person probably will never vote for a DPP candidate, but that doesn’t mean they won’t vote for a non-KMT candidate, and vice-versa. Then, there are the 36.7% in the “neutral” category, which I think generally don’t like either of the big parties (hence the neutral) or even the “pan-anything” politics going on--a “pox on both your houses” referenced above. I think that group is a natural constituency for Ko--and that is a bigger group than the hardcore constituency for either the KMT or DPP, though perhaps less loyal. Of course some of them will not like Ko for some reason or another (traffic has gotten worse, Taipei Dome, etc), but I think that group will lean strongly in Ko’s direction.

So let’s put this in context:
Strongly partisan voters (rounded): 50%
KMT hardcore: 27%
DPP hardcore: 23%
Potentially up for grabs (rounded): 50%
Neutral (likely lean Ko): 37%
Other (unknown, but not fixed party followers): 13%

Which brings us back to the current polling numbers. 37% currently support Ko P. That’s almost identical to the number of “neutral” voters. Of course I doubt that every single one of Ko P’s supporters answered “neutral” in party affiliation polling, but I’d put a strong bet on that there is a high degree of overlap here between the two groups--and with the current mood I’d be willing to bet there is a high degree of overlap between people who are Ko P supporters, identify as “neutral” and view the parties in a “pox on both your houses” sort of way.

So now it’s time to pick on “tribalism”, the magic force that has Batto leaving Ko with a paltry 10-15% and Turton leaving poor ol’ Ko “gleaning the leftovers” to attempt to reach 10%. I agree that tribalism is a factor here, but that it isn’t as powerful as it is cracked up to be. It will bring out the 50% in the “strongly partisan” list above, certainly. However, some things to consider. First, this is a local election, so the identity issue isn’t quite as decisive as it is on the national level--though granted in Taipei, being the capital, it may be a bit higher than in say, Taichung. Second, Ko has been more or less centrist on the identity issue, enough to piss of the hardcore at each end of the spectrum, but in a way that is either neutral or even positive to everyone else. Third, he transcends party tribalism for all but the hardcore of the DPP and KMT, for reasons laid out all throughout this article.

So now for some bold statements.

Ko P has a hardcore base and floor like the other two candidates do, and it is the “pox on both your houses” voter that is fed up with tribalism and the major parties and “bullshit politicians”. I estimate, with no hard proof but I feel is suggested by the numbers and trends so far, that Ko P has a floor of between 25-35%, easily matching or exceeding the floor on the other two parties.

So, with Ko already in the lead, and with a solid base, high name recognition and incumbency, how are the other candidates going to be able to beat him? They do have the get-out-the-vote advantage clearly in their favour. That’s a big one, no question. They also both have hardcore bases of their own, which I estimate at 27% and 23%--that’s nothing to sneeze at.

Both Ting and Yao will have to decide how to campaign, and the challenge of a three-way race combined with the unusual character of Ko and his base makes their choices tough. Options include (they will likely choose more than one):

Run partisan attacks against Ko and other party’s opponent to rally the base. That’s good for voter turnout among the base, but turns off the centre and may conversely help mobilize Ko’s base or even grow it--they’re the ones sick of this kind of thing.

Run personal attacks against Ko. That may do some damage to Ko, but I doubt as much as normal, he’s been through the wringer before and there isn’t much new to add that people don’t already know. Again, may rally Ko’s base, or depress their own bases if handled badly. Though less likely, it even could blow up in their own faces if Ko successfully parries with one of his off-the-cuff bombshells. There is also another problem for both Ting and Yao, any people peeled off supporting Ko may not join their camp--it may end up boosting the other party’s camp.

Run a positive character or issues campaign on specific proposals. Hard to say how effective this will be, but so far neither Ting or Yao have had much success with this in past, and being more traditional party politicians it is unclear how much appeal that would have to Ko’s “pox” supporters.

Run a partisan campaign playing up the credentials of the candidate on the issues that matter to their respective bases. Yao has already done some of this, but his audience was the DPP itself, so maybe not reflective of his actions in a general campaign. Yao has something of an advantage here on this one over Ting in stealing Ko voters if he follows the more popular pro-Taiwan theme.

One fascinating thing to watch will be to see how hard Ting and Yao go after each other. If they attack each other too hard, it will only help Ko. If they over concentrate all their fire on Ko, that could end up backfiring and making them look small--but this is probably a safer bet than firing on each other.

My suspicion is the best bet for both candidates is focus mostly on positive plans interspersed with some character attacks on Ko for his gaffes, mistakes (Taipei Dome) and question his management style (which has seemed to piss some people off). Yao plays up his pro-Taiwan credentials, Ting tries to resurrect the traditional KMT image of competency. Throw money/gifts/favours at key constituencies and make the occasional more partisan appeal in select settings. Whether they will actually campaign this way or not, who knows?

So how will this play out? Obviously, hard to say at this point. Assuming no scandals throw things into a spin, some thoughts:

Yao has the biggest uphill battle here. Currently he hasn’t even managed to win over the percentage of the population that self-identifies as DPP, never mind anyone else. However, I expect that to change, after all he is semi-unknown and isn’t even officially the candidate yet. He is going to have to make a big splash early on, I suspect, or he’ll be in trouble. He’s got (in my estimation) the smallest base of the three. If he doesn’t maintain a respectable position in the polls there may be an exodus of anti-KMT/pan-green voters strategically bolting to vote for Ko and the anti-Ko voters bolting for Ting. I suspect if he follows the strategies above, he’s got an outside chance to win it, but as things stand now I think he’ll remain in third.

I think Ting has a pretty good shot at winning this election. He’s got a bigger base to start with, and a head start on Yao on the campaigning and in support already--plus the built in expectation in Taipei that the KMT candidate has the advantage, which may pull in anti-Ko voters from the middle or from Yao. However, he’s not a great candidate, so in spite of all the natural advantages given to him, he’s going to have to run an unexpectedly good campaign to beat Ko.

I still think this is Ko’s election to lose, but he just might pull off a loss. Lack of a party base is a big problem. He’s also stated he doesn’t plan to campaign much, which may hurt him unless he can successfully convince the public that by concentrating on his job as mayor that he is doing the right thing by them...and keeping himself in the public eye doing “mayor stuff”, which admittedly is a super easy thing to do in “celestial kingdom” Taipei where all the lazy-as-hell media is based (wait, there is more Taiwan beyond where the MRT goes!?). He also doesn’t seem to be bringing in much of a professional campaign team this time, which could also be a disastrous mistake if things go wrong--he’d be stuck largely on his own without advice and spokespeople, and the combination of his foot-and-mouth disease and what often looks like arrogance could be really damaging in a PR crisis. While I contend that he has a base and that unlike Batto’s assertion that his support is “based on air”, I do agree that his base may be less loyal in a serious crisis. I think Ko is actually his own biggest foe and obstacle to getting re-elected. If he can avoid a PR meltdown I think he has the edge, if not a collapse of his campaign would throw race into very interesting territory.
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